The Strategic Implication of Monetary Control: An Empirical Investigation of the Indian Economy†
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide an overview of a monetary policy measure known as "Inflation Targeting Framework" to target inflation at a projected level by manipulating other macroeconomic variables.
Abstract: Emerging economies have struggled hard to keep inflation low at the same time as facilitating high economic growth. These economies always attempt to execute strategic policy framework to curb inflation which in-turn affect the growth rate. This paper attempts to provide an overview of a monetary policy measure known as ‘Inflation Targeting Framework’ to target inflation at a projected level by manipulating other macroeconomic variables. The focus of the paper is to study inflationary situation in a vast and diverse emerging economy—India. Some parts of India are very affluent while others lack the basic amenities. This study, therefore, explores the implications of a strategic framework that is dynamic and flexible in nature and can be implemented with ease. The study empirically investigates the relationship between inflation and major economic aggregates. The findings show that inflation is highly correlated with interest rates, money supply, and real effective exchange rates. Thus, these variables can be adjusted to target inflation at a projected level. The outcome of this paper also provides suggestions for the implementation of a phase-wise flexible strategic policy framework.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider a nonstationary vector autoregressive process which is integrated of order 1, and generated by i.i.d. Gaussian errors, and derive the maximum likelihood estimator of the space of cointegration vectors and the likelihood ratio test of the hypothesis that it has a given number of dimensions.
16,189 citations
"The Strategic Implication of Moneta..." refers background in this paper
...For example, the Johansen (1988) and Juselius (1990) co-integration approach indicated the presence of a long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation for Sri Lanka, Malaysia Singapore, and Pakistan....
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TL;DR: In this paper, the estimation and testing of long-run relations in economic modeling are addressed, starting with a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the hypothesis of cointegration is formulated as a hypothesis of reduced rank of the long run impact matrix.
Abstract: The estimation and testing of long-run relations in economic modeling are addressed. Starting with a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the hypothesis of cointegration is formulated as the hypothesis of reduced rank of the long-run impact matrix. This is given in a simple parametric form that allows the application of the method of maximum likelihood and likelihood ratio tests. In this way, one can derive estimates and test statistics for the hypothesis of a given number of cointegration vectors, as well as estimates and tests for linear hypotheses about the cointegration vectors and their weights. The asymptotic inferences concerning the number of cointegrating vectors involve nonstandard distributions. Inference concerning linear restrictions on the cointegration vectors and their weights can be performed using the usual chi squared methods. In the case of linear restrictions on beta, a Wald test procedure is suggested. The proposed methods are illustrated by money demand data from the Danish and Finnish economies.
12,449 citations
01 Jan 2005
10,230 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the central bank's inflation forecast becomes an explicit intermediate target, and the weight on output stabilization determines how quickly the inflation forecast is adjusted towards the inflation target, leading to higher inflation variability.
1,384 citations