The use of nonlinear, noncompensatory models in decision making.
TL;DR: These models, called conjunctive and disjunctive, are approximated here by suitable nonlinear functions of utility and are shown to give a better fit to certain decision data than the linear model.
Abstract: An important problem in decision making concerns finding the utility of a multidimensional stimulus. This has traditionally been done by assuming that total utility is a linear function of the attributes of the stimulus. In clinical decision making, the linear regression model has been used to predict and diagnose on the basis of multidimensio nal information as well as to approximate the clinician's own judgment. Other nonlinear, noncompensatory models are available for combining information. These models, called conjunctive and disjunctive, are approximated here by suitable nonlinear functions of utility. They are then shown to give a better fit to certain decision data than the linear model. The factors affecting the use of these models and their implications are discussed.
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01 Jan 1999TL;DR: Fast and frugal heuristics as discussed by the authors are simple rules for making decisions with realistic mental resources and can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices, classifications, and predictions by employing bounded rationality.
Abstract: Fast and frugal heuristics - simple rules for making decisions with realistic mental resources - are presented here. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices, classifications, and predictions by employing bounded rationality. But when and how can such fast and frugal heuristics work? What heuristics are in the mind's adaptive toolbox, and what building blocks compose them? Can judgments based simply on a single reason be as accurate as those based on many reasons? Could less knowledge even lead to systematically better predictions than more knowledge? This book explores these questions by developing computational models of heuristics and testing them through experiments and analysis. It shows how fast and frugal heuristics can yield adaptive decisions in situations as varied as choosing a mate, dividing resources among offspring, predicting high school drop-out rates, and playing the stock market.
4,384 citations
TL;DR: The authors have proposed a family of algorithms based on a simple psychological mechanism: one-reason decision making, and found that these fast and frugal algorithms violate fundamental tenets of classical rationality: they neither look up nor integrate all information.
Abstract: Humans and animals make inferences about the world under limited time and knowledge. In contrast, many models of rational inference treat the mind as a Laplacean Demon, equipped with unlimited time, knowledge, and computational might. Following H. Simon's notion of satisficing, the authors have proposed a family of algorithms based on a simple psychological mechanism: onereason decision making. These fast and frugal algorithms violate fundamental tenets of classical rationality: They neither look up nor integrate all information. By computer simulation, the authors held a competition between the satisficing "Take The Best" algorithm and various "rational" inference procedures (e.g., multiple regression). The Take The Best algorithm matched or outperformed all competitors in inferential speed and accuracy. This result is an existence proof that cognitive mechanisms capable of successful performance in the real world do not need to satisfy the classical norms of rational inference.
3,112 citations
Additional excerpts
...disjunctive algorithms (Einhorn, 1970) and highly complex...
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TL;DR: Two process tracing techniques, explicit information search and verbal protocols, were used to examine the information processing strategies subjects use in reaching a decision, demonstrating that the informationprocessing leading to choice will vary as a function of task complexity.
2,005 citations
Cites background from "The use of nonlinear, noncompensato..."
...A similar nonlinear, noncompensatory decision rule has been suggested by a number of researchers (Coombs, 1964; Dawes, 1964; Einhorn, 1970)....
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...Einhorn (1971) suggested a similar explanation of decision making in complex situations....
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TL;DR: This work examines the models that have been developed for describing and prescribing the use of information in decision making, the major experimental paradigms, and the major empirical results and conclusions of these two approaches.
1,878 citations
TL;DR: Reviews the literature showing the effects of task and context variables on decision behavior and evaluates alternative theories for handlingtask and context effects, including cost/benefit principles, perceptual processes, and adaptive production systems.
Abstract: Reviews the literature showing the effects of task and context variables on decision behavior and evaluates alternative theories for handling task and context effects. These frameworks include (a) cost/benefit principles, (b) perceptual processes, and (c) adaptive production systems. Both the cost/b
1,228 citations
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TL;DR: This literature review of decision making (how people make choices among desirable alternatives), culled from the disciplines of psychology, economics, and mathematics, covers the theory of riskless choices, the application of the theory to welfare economics,The theory of risky choices, transitivity of choices, and the theories of games and statistical decision functions.
Abstract: This literature review of decision making (how people make choices among desirable alternatives), culled from the disciplines of psychology, economics, and mathematics, covers the theory of riskless choices, the application of the theory of riskless choices to welfare economics, the theory of risky choices, transitivity of choices, and the theory of games and statistical decision functions The theories surveyed assume rational behavior: individuals have transitive preferences (“… if A is preferred to B, and B is preferred to C, then A is preferred to C”), choosing from among alternatives in order to “… maximize utility or expected utility” 209-item bibliography (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved)
2,197 citations
TL;DR: Brunswik as discussed by the authors reviewed the book by Egon Brunswik (see record 1952-05895-000) and described it as "a slim volume, hardly a book, rather a monograph of barely a hundred pages".
Abstract: Reviews the book by Egon Brunswik (see record 1952-05895-000). Physically this is a slim volume, hardly a book, rather, a monograph of barely a hundred pages. Intellectually this is the equivalent of three books or, to put it conservatively, of one well-sized book and two monographs of about one hun
1,014 citations
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577 citations