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The Value of Analogical Reasoning for the Design of Creative Sales Promotion Campaigns: A Case-Based Reasoning Approach
12 Feb 2008-ERIM report series research in management Erasmus Research Institute of Management (Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam)-
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that providing decision makers with analogies leads to more creative campaigns and solutions become better when decision makers have a larger set of analogies to choose from.
Abstract: Many marketing problems, such as the design of marketing communication campaigns and the development of new products, require creative solutions. Such problems are typically weakly-structured and underspecified (open-ended). The authors investigate the potential of analogical reasoning as a decision support principle for this type of problems. They carry out experiments in a case-based reasoning (CBR) environment. The application domain is the design of sales promotion campaigns.
The authors demonstrate that providing decision makers with analogies leads to more creative campaigns. Providing analogies is most effective for decision makers with a low creative ability. Furthermore, solutions become better when decision makers have a larger set of analogies to choose from. Far analogies have the potential of generating more novel solutions than near analogies, but there is a higher threshold for using them. Interestingly, decision makers do not recognize the contribution of the analogies to the quality of their solution. On the practical side, the authors provide an effective tool for supporting decision making in weakly-structured marketing problem areas.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors review the scientific knowledge on expertise and expert performance and how experts may differ from non-experts in terms of their development, training, reasoning, knowledge, social support, and innate talent.
Abstract: This is the first handbook where the world’s foremost “experts on expertise” review our scientific knowledge on expertise and expert performance and how experts may differ from non-experts in terms of their development, training, reasoning, knowledge, social support, and innate talent. Methods are described for the study of experts’ knowledge and their performance of representative tasks from their domain of expertise. The development of expertise is also studied by retrospective interviews and the daily lives of experts are studied with diaries. In 15 major domains of expertise, the leading researchers summarize our knowledge of the structure and acquisition of expert skill and knowledge and discuss future prospects. General issues that cut across most domains are reviewed in chapters on various aspects of expertise, such as general and practical intelligence, differences in brain activity, self-regulated learning, deliberate practice, aging, knowledge management, and creativity.
1,268 citations
01 Jan 1997
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the issue of problem solving in marketing and develop a classification of marketing problem-solving modes (MPSMs), which are used in marketing management support systems.
Abstract: textFocuses on the issue of problem solving in marketing and develops a classification of marketing problem-solving modes (MPSMs). Typology of MPSMs; Relationship among MPSMs; Marketing management support systems.
96 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate how a combination of general mental ability and specific skills and capabilities (social competence and thinking styles) allows salespeople to reach their sales goals, and find evidence for an interaction between GMA and social competence.
Abstract: Using two different samples of salespeople, the authors investigate how a combination of general mental ability (GMA) and specific skills and capabilities (social competence and thinking styles) allows salespeople to reach their sales goals. The study finds evidence for an interaction between GMA and social competence. If combined with high social competence, high GMA leads to highest sales performance; if combined with low social competence, high GMA leads to lowest sales performance. In addition, interaction effects between GMA and a judicial thinking style were found. Salespeople high on GMA have the most potential for attaining high levels of sales performance when combined with specific skills; when lacking these skills they may become the firm’s worst performers.
88 citations
TL;DR: Managerial decision making in marketing is the heart of the field and academic work on this topic is scarce; for example, better ways to monitor actual decision making and sophisticated behavioral laboratories and brain imaging methods are used.
80 citations
References
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Book•
01 Jan 1974TL;DR: The authors described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios, and adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available.
Abstract: This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.
31,082 citations
Book•
[...]
TL;DR: Case-based reasoning as discussed by the authors is one of the fastest growing areas in the field of knowledge-based systems and the first comprehensive text on the subject is presented by a leader in this field.
Abstract: Case-based reasoning is one of the fastest growing areas in the field of knowledge-based systems and this book, authored by a leader in the field, is the first comprehensive text on the subject. Case-based reasoning systems are systems that store information about situations in their memory. As new problems arise, similar situations are searched out to help solve these problems. Problems are understood and inferences are made by finding the closest cases in memory, comparing and contrasting the problem with those cases, making inferences based on those comparisons, and asking questions when inferences can't be made. This book presents the state of the art in case-based reasoning. The author synthesizes and analyzes a broad range of approaches, with special emphasis on applying case-based reasoning to complex real-world problem-solving tasks such as medical diagnosis, design, conflict resolution, and planning. The author's approach combines cognitive science and engineering, and is based on analysis of both expert and common-sense tasks. Guidelines for building case-based expert systems are provided, such as how to represent knowledge in cases, how to index cases for accessibility, how to implement retrieval processes for efficiency, and how to adapt old solutions to fit new situations. This book is an excellent text for courses and tutorials on case-based reasoning. It is also a useful resource for computer professionals and cognitive scientists interested in learning more about this fast-growing field.
4,672 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the interpretation rules of OS implicit rules for mapping knowledge about a base domain into a torget domain are defined by the existence of higher-order relations, which depend only on syntactic properties of the knowledge representation, and not on specific content of the domoins.
4,667 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1990
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a survey of the existing literature on the analysis of moderated relationships involving continuous variables, focusing on analyzing interaction effects in the context of multiple regression and structural equation analyses.
Abstract: This monograph is concerned primarily with the statistical analysis of moderated relationships or as they are more commonly known interaction effects where all variables involved are continuous in nature. The focus is on analyzing interaction effects in the context of multiple regression and structural equation analyses. There currently exists a great deal of confusion about the analysis of moderated relationships involving continuous variables. The statistical and substantive literatures are replete with contradictory advice and admonitions about the best way to test models involving moderated relationships. Further the relevant statistical literature is scattered throughout a range of disciplines including sociology psychology political science economics biology and statistics. The major purpose of this monograph is to bring together this rather diverse literature and to explicate the central issues involved in conducting analyses of moderated relationships involving continuous variables. The principal finding is that interaction analysis is most straightforward when it is theoretically motivated; theory guides the specification of appropriate interaction models using multiple regression analysis. Traditional product terms with continuous variables assess interaction of a specific form namely bilinear interactions. The authors organize their analysis around 3 principal questions: 1) given the sample data can it be inferred that an interaction effect exists in the population; 2) if so what is the strength of the effect; and 3) if so what is the nature of the effect? When formulating research to test for interaction effects one should consider issues related to sample size (for purposes of power analysis) levels of measurement measurement error potential multicollinearity and other methodological/substantive issues discussed above. The monograph concludes with 10 empirical applications that have used multiple regression analysis for the analysis of moderated relationships.
3,193 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well.
Abstract: The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.
2,954 citations