The Youth and the Arab Spring: Cohort Differences and Similarities
TL;DR: This paper examined the characteristics of the current youth generation in the Arab world in comparison with earlier cohorts and found that some of the conventional assumptions about this generation are true, but others are more supportive of secularization, more interested in politics, and more dissatisfied with their regimes.
Abstract: The Arab Spring has been described as a youth rebellion driven by grievances about unemployment and dissatisfaction with existing regimes. In this article, we assess these claims by examining the characteristics of the current youth generation in the Arab world in comparison with earlier cohorts. We find that some of the conventional assumptions about this generation—that they are less religious, more likely to be unemployed, and more likely to protest—are true, but others—that they are more supportive of secularization, more interested in politics, and more dissatisfied with their regimes—should be reconsidered. Using the first wave of the Arab Barometer survey, we discuss how patterns of political attitudes and behavior vary across cohorts, and cast doubt upon the claim that the Arab Spring was the result of an angry youth cohort that was especially opposed to the old regimes.
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23 Nov 2014
TL;DR: Turn Down the Heat as discussed by the authors examines the likely impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C warming above pre-industrial temperatures on agricultural production, water resources, ecosystem services and coastal vulnerability for affected populations.
Abstract: The data show that dramatic climate changes, heat and weather extremes are already impacting people, damaging crops and coastlines and putting food, water, and energy security at risk. Across the three regions studied in this report, record-breaking temperatures are occurring more frequently, rainfall has increased in intensity in some places, while drought-prone regions are getting dryer. In an overview of social vulnerability, the poor and underprivileged, as well as the elderly and children, are found to be often hit the hardest. There is growing evidence, that even with very ambitious mitigation action, warming close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century is already locked-in to the Earth’s atmospheric system and climate change impacts such as extreme heat events may now be unavoidable.1 If the planet continues warming to 4°C, climatic conditions, heat and other weather extremes considered highly unusual or unprecedented today would become the new climate normal—a world of increased risks and instability. The consequences for development would be severe as crop yields decline, water resources change, diseases move into new ranges, and sea levels rise. The task of promoting human development, of ending poverty, increasing global prosperity, and reducing global inequality will be very challenging in a 2°C world, but in a 4°C world there is serious doubt whether this can be achieved at all. Immediate steps are needed to help countries adapt to the climate impacts being felt today and the unavoidable consequences of a rapidly warming world. The benefits of strong, early action on climate change, action that follows clean, low carbon pathways and avoids locking in unsustainable growth strategies, far outweigh the costs. Many of the worst projected climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming to below 2°C. But, the time to act is now. This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia. Building on earlier Turn Down the Heat reports this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C warming above pre-industrial temperatures on agricultural production, water resources, ecosystem services and coastal vulnerability for affected populations.
173 citations
TL;DR: The authors argue that contention spread so quickly because many people in a wide range of countries drew rash inferences from the downfall of Tunisia's dictator, and overrated the significance of the Tunisian success, overestimated the similarities with the political situation in their own country, and jumped to the conclusion that they could successfully challenge their own autocrats.
Abstract: Prominent scholars have highlighted important similarities between the Arab Spring of 2011 and the “revolutions” of 1848: Both waves of contention swept with dramatic speed across whole regions, but ended up yielding rather limited advances toward political liberalism and democracy. I seek to uncover the causal mechanisms that help account for these striking parallels. Drawing on my recent analysis of 1848, I argue that contention spread so quickly because many people in a wide range of countries drew rash inferences from the downfall of Tunisia's dictator. Applying cognitive heuristics that psychologists have documented, they overrated the significance of the Tunisian success, overestimated the similarities with the political situation in their own country, and jumped to the conclusion that they could successfully challenge their own autocrats. This precipitation prompted protests in many settings that actually were much less propitious; therefore problems abounded. Cognitive shortcuts held such sway because Arab societies were weakly organized and repressed and thus lacked leaders from whom common people could take authoritative cues. The decision whether to engage in emulative contention fell to ordinary citizens, who—due to limited information access and scarce experience—were especially susceptible to the simple inferences suggested by cognitive heuristics.
171 citations
Cites background from "The Youth and the Arab Spring: Coho..."
...13 In fact, survey evidence suggests that youth griev- ances were not decisive in propelling the uprisings (Hoffman and Jamal 2012, 184–85)....
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TL;DR: This paper analyzed attitudes expressed in Arabic on Twitter towards the United States and Iran during 2012-2013 and found that anti-Americanism may be a specific manifestation of a more general phenomenon: resentment toward powerful countries perceived as interfering in national and regional affairs.
Abstract: Systematic investigation of attitudes expressed in Arabic on Twitter towards the United States and Iran during 2012–13 shows how the analysis of social media can illuminate the politics of contemporary political discourses and generates an informative analysis of anti-Americanism in the Middle East. We not only analyze overall attitudes, but using a novel events-based analytical strategy, we examine reactions to specific events, including the removal of Mohamed Morsi in Egypt, the Innocence of Muslims video,andreactionstopossibleU.S.interventioninSyria.WealsoexaminetheBostonMarathonbombingsofApril2013,inwhich the United States suffered damage from human beings, and Hurricane Sandy, in which it suffered damage from nature. Our findings reinforce evidence from polling that anti-Americanism is pervasive and intense, but they also suggest that this animus is directed less toward American society than toward the impingement of the United States on other countries. Arabic Twitter discourses about Iran are at least as negative as discourses about the United States, and less ambivalent. Anti-Americanism may be a specific manifestation of a more general phenomenon: resentment toward powerful countries perceived as interfering in national and regional affairs.
65 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors trace the effects of human development on political change, focusing on the events of the Arab Spring, and provide provisional support for these pathways through cross-regional comparison and evidence from specific populations and sub-populations.
Abstract: This essay traces the effects of human development on political change, focusing on the events of the Arab Spring. Over the past generation, the Arab world experienced rapid progress in human development outcomes, including declining child mortality, extended schooling, and increasing status of women. These development gains penetrated most Arab states and subpopulations. The pathway from human development to political mobilization rests on three interlinked propositions. First, basic human development led to a significant increase in population needs and expectations, creating new policy challenges and reducing public dependency on regimes. Second, human development and new information technologies created new opportunities for political protest. Finally, the collective realization of human development gains resulted in new values conducive to regime change. Each proposition builds on theories of human capital accumulation over the life course that isolate the human dimension of national development. I provide provisional support for these pathways through cross-regional comparison and evidence from specific populations and sub-populations. I highlight the need for new study designs and datasets that further test this model.
65 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that activism is passed down from one generation to the next: first movers often came from families that had been punished for opposing the regime in the past.
Abstract: Why are some people willing to initiate protest against authoritarian regimes? How does repression affect their willingness to act? Drawing on data from the Arab Spring protests in Morocco, this article argues first that activism is passed down from one generation to the next: first movers often came from families that had been punished for opposing the regime in the past. Secondly, repression during the Arab Spring was also counterproductive: those connected to first movers via Facebook supported renewed pro-democracy protests when informed of the regime’s use of repression in 2011. A regime that jails and beats political dissidents creates incentives for its citizens to oppose it; these abuses can come back to haunt the regime long after repression occurs.
63 citations
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01 Jan 2011
23 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: According to the International Labour Organization, in 2006, there were more people in work than the year before, but at the same time there were also more unemployed people than in 2005 as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: INTRODUCTION Despite strong global economic growth in 2006, the global unemployment rate remained unchanged from the previous year at 6.3 percent. According to the International Labour Organization, in 2006, there were more people in work than the year before, but at the same time there were also more unemployed people than in 2005. "The number of unemployed remained at an all time high of 195.2 million in 2006." (1) Moreover, half of the unemployed people around the world are young people. The young people ate three times more likely to be unemployed than adults, "with 86.3 million young people, in 2006 representing 44 percent of the world's total unemployed." (2) Furthermore, recent trends in the labor market ate worrisome. If current trends ate maintained, the employment prospect for the future does not look bright. (3) The unemployment rate varies among different regions in the world. However, in 2006, with 12.2 percent unemployment the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) (4) stand out as the region with the highest rate of unemployment in the world. According to unofficial estimates, the actual unemployment rate is much higher. (5) In fact, a conservative estimate places unemployment at about 15 percent of the labor force. (6) Moreover, The Arab League Economic Unity Council estimates unemployment in the Middle East (7) at 20 percent. (8) The MENA region covers economies where the economic structures and labor markets ate fairly different. It appears that there are differences between oil-producing and non-oil-producing countries. However, today, many of the social and economic problems of MENA countries generally ate parallel. In addition, many of the development challenges facing the Arab states ate similar. In this respect, today one of the most important economic and social problems of MENA is the high rate of unemployment. In MENA, there has been a steady increase in the number of total unemployed since 1996. The increment of the number of unemployed people is about 500,000 per year. In addition, labor markets in the MENA region ate characterized by low job creation. Furthermore, recent trends in the labor market in MENA countries are worrisome. Within this context, the unemployment rate is much higher for new entrants to the labor market, for the young, and for the educated people. (9) According to the result of ILO annual "World Employment Report 2004-2005," current job creation is not enough to absorb all of those seeking work in MENA countries. (10) It is obvious that the job creation is a major problem in the region. In this respect, the critical question is, will relatively high economic growth be able to create enough jobs for the rapid growing young population? It is estimated that in the next decade the expansion of MENA's labor force will be the highest in the world. According to the World Bank's Report, in the next two decades the labor force will be expanding by close to 80 million new workers. For this reason, MENA countries have to "create 100 million new jobs by 2020, essentially a doubling of the current level of employment." (11) The main challenge for the MENA region will be to address the unemployment situation, particularly the high unemployment among youths. Today, youth unemployment is one of the most important problems of the region. It is estimated that youth unemployment rates are more than twice the rates of total unemployment in many countries in the region. (12) MENA countries have a growing young population with 37 percent below the age of 15 years, and 58 percent below the age of 25. Moreover, "in the Arab countries, at least 20 percent of the total population is between 15 and 24 years." (13) In MENA, youth unemployment rate was estimated at 25.6 percent in 2003, which is the highest in the world. (14) The main reason for this high overall unemployment and youth unemployment is the high population growth. However, "there are several causes for the high population growth. …
14 citations