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Theory of International Politics

01 Jan 1979-
About: The article was published on 1979-01-01 and is currently open access. It has received 7932 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Global politics & International relations.
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a case study of one recent exercise in coalition building among Southern middle powers, the ‘India, Brazil, and South Africa (IBSA) Dialogue Forum’, is presented.
Abstract: How can weaker states influence stronger ones? This article offers a case study of one recent exercise in coalition building among Southern middle powers, the ‘India, Brazil, South Africa (IBSA) Dialogue Forum’. The analysis outlines five major points: first, it argues that the three emerging players can be defined as middle powers in order to frame their foreign policy behavior and options at the global level. Second, soft balancing is a suitable concept to explain IBSA’s strategy in global institutions. Third, institutional foreign policy instruments are of pivotal significance in IBSA’s soft balancing strategy. Fourth, the potential gains of IBSA’s sector cooperation, particularly in trade, are limited due to a lack of complementarity of the three economies. And fifth, IBSA’s perspectives and impact on the international system will depend on four variables: IBSA’s ability to focus on distinct areas of cooperation, the consolidation of its common strategy of soft balancing, the institutionalization of IBSA, and its enlargement in order to obtain more weight in global bargains. Angesichts einer asymmetrischen Weltordnung stellt sich innerhalb der internationalen Beziehungen immer drangender die Frage, uber welche Moglichkeiten schwachere Staaten verfugen, um starkere Akteure des internationalen Systems zu beeinflussen. Der Verfasser des vorliegenden Artikels untersucht in einer Fallstudie die Bildung einer diplomatischen Koalition zwischen den aufstrebenden Mittelmachten des Sudens. Gegenstand der Analyse sind Stand und Perspektiven des sich als globales Reformbundnis verstehenden IBSADialogforums. Folgende Thesen gliedern die Studie in funf Abschnitte: 1) Indien, Brasilien und Sudafrika werden als Mittelmachte definiert, um ihre Verhaltensmuster und Handlungsoptionen auf der globalen Ebene theoretisch zu erfassen. 2) Das Soft‐Balancing‐Konzept verfugt uber eine grose Erklarungsreichweite bezuglich der gemeinsamen Strategie der IBSA‐Staaten in den internationalen Institutionen. 3) Institutionellen Instrumenten kommt im Rahmen der Soft‐Balancing‐Strategie der IBSA‐Staaten eine Schlusselrolle zu. 4) Die Erfolgsaussichten der sektoralen Kooperation zwischen Indien, Brasilien und Sudafrika sind aufgrund mangelnder Komplementaritat der drei Volkswirtschaften (insbesondere im Handelssektor) begrenzt. 5) Die Perspektiven des IBSA‐Forums und dessen Einfluss auf Wandlungstendenzen im internationalen System durften vor allem von vier Faktoren abhangen: – IBSAs Beschrankung auf klar definierte und erfolgversprechende Kooperationsbereiche, – die Konsolidierung der gemeinsamen Soft‐Balancing‐Strategie, – die Institutionalisierung des IBSA‐Dialogforums und schlieslich – die Erweiterung der Koalition zur Generierung von mehr globaler Verhandlungsmacht.

82 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors make the case for variance-altering causation by demonstrating its empirical relevance to political scientists and lay out an array of causal mechanisms under the general headings of aggregation, contagion, and constraint.
Abstract: Political scientists overwhelmingly seek evidence of causation by measuring changes in the mean of the distribution of the dependent variable. This article points out that some causal relationships produce changes in the variance, not the mean, of that distribution. It makes the case for variance-altering causation by demonstrating its empirical relevance to political scientists. The article also lays out an array of causal mechanisms—under the general headings of aggregation, contagion, and constraint—in order to demonstrate the logical coherence of variance-altering causation and the many ways in which it can arise. The discussion highlights the often-stringent empirical and logical requirements that must be met if the researcher hopes to make concrete predictions about changes in variance.

81 citations


Cites background from "Theory of International Politics"

  • ...The exigencies of life in the international system, according to Waltz (1979, 73–74) place limits on the behavior of states; the internal structure of the state, according to Snyder (1991, 54, 311) constrains democratic leaders but leaves dictators unfettered....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, an agent-based model that combines a natural-selection logic with an adaptive mechanism of regime change is proposed to generate realistic trajectories of democratization at the systemic level.
Abstract: Whereas the literature on the democratic peace tends to treat the phenomenon as a causal law, we follow Immanuel Kant in interpreting it as a macro-historical process that expanded from a small number of democracies to about 50% of all states. In order to account for this development, we introduce an agent-based model that combines a natural-selection logic with an adaptive mechanism of regime change. The latter is implemented as an empirically calibrated, contextual rule that prompts democratization as an S-shaped function of the democratic share of a state's immediate neighborhood. A similar transition rule governs regime change in the opposite direction. The computational results show that regime change and collective security are necessary to produce realistic trajectories of democratization at the systemic level.

81 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the conditions affecting initial expressions of hostility are similar to those affecting militarized disputes, and the authors examined whether the conditions that affect initial expression of hostility were the same as those affecting military conflicts.
Abstract: We examine whether the conditions affecting initial expressions of hostility are similar to those affecting militarized disputes. Analyzing dyadic interactions during the years 1951-1992, we estimate a model to take into account selection effects and check it against another allowing conjunctive causation. Both provide close approximations to theoretical models of the conflict process and yield similar results. We confirm Kant's belief that all states are subject to the realist conditions of interstate competition that makes disputes likely, but that liberal influences, if present, can constrain the escalation of such disputes to war. Several influences on the conflict process have nonmonotonic effects over the range of state behavior. Geopolitical factors affect the opportunity for conflict more at lower levels of the conflict process, when less information is available regarding acceptable settlements and actors' resolve, than at higher levels. Factors affecting willingness gain importance as the confli...

81 citations

References
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Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 1976
TL;DR: For centuries knowledge meant proven knowledge, proven either by the power of the intellect or by the evidence of the senses as discussed by the authors. But the notion of proven knowledge was questioned by the sceptics more than two thousand years ago; but they were browbeaten into confusion by the glory of Newtonian physics.
Abstract: For centuries knowledge meant proven knowledge — proven either by the power of the intellect or by the evidence of the senses. Wisdom and intellectual integrity demanded that one must desist from unproven utterances and minimize, even in thought, the gap between speculation and established knowledge. The proving power of the intellect or the senses was questioned by the sceptics more than two thousand years ago; but they were browbeaten into confusion by the glory of Newtonian physics. Einstein’s results again turned the tables and now very few philosophers or scientists still think that scientific knowledge is, or can be, proven knowledge. But few realize that with this the whole classical structure of intellectual values falls in ruins and has to be replaced: one cannot simply water down the ideal of proven truth - as some logical empiricists do — to the ideal of’probable truth’1 or — as some sociologists of knowledge do — to ‘truth by [changing] consensus’.2

4,969 citations

ReportDOI
17 Feb 1966
TL;DR: This book contains the collected and unified material necessary for the presentation of such branches of modern cybernetics as the theory of electronic digital computers, Theory of discrete automata, theory of discrete self-organizing systems, automation of thought processes, theoryof image recognition, etc.
Abstract: : This book contains the collected and unified material necessary for the presentation of such branches of modern cybernetics as the theory of electronic digital computers, theory of discrete automata, theory of discrete self-organizing systems, automation of thought processes, theory of image recognition, etc. Discussions are given of the fundamentals of the theory of boolean functions, algorithm theory, principles of the design of electronic digital computers and universal algorithmical languages, fundamentals of perceptron theory, some theoretical questions of the theory of self-organizing systems. Many fundamental results in mathematical logic and algorithm theory are presented in summary form, without detailed proofs, and in some cases without any proof. The book is intended for a broad audience of mathematicians and scientists of many specialties who wish to acquaint themselves with the problems of modern cybernetics.

2,922 citations

Journal ArticleDOI

2,873 citations