Time series analysis
TL;DR: A ordered sequence of events or observations having a time component is called as a time series, and some good examples are daily opening and closing stock prices, daily humidity, temperature, pressure, annual gross domestic product of a country and so on.
Abstract: Preface1Difference Equations12Lag Operators253Stationary ARMA Processes434Forecasting725Maximum Likelihood Estimation1176Spectral Analysis1527Asymptotic Distribution Theory1808Linear Regression Models2009Linear Systems of Simultaneous Equations23310Covariance-Stationary Vector Processes25711Vector Autoregressions29112Bayesian Analysis35113The Kalman Filter37214Generalized Method of Moments40915Models of Nonstationary Time Series43516Processes with Deterministic Time Trends45417Univariate Processes with Unit Roots47518Unit Roots in Multivariate Time Series54419Cointegration57120Full-Information Maximum Likelihood Analysis of Cointegrated Systems63021Time Series Models of Heteroskedasticity65722Modeling Time Series with Changes in Regime677A Mathematical Review704B Statistical Tables751C Answers to Selected Exercises769D Greek Letters and Mathematical Symbols Used in the Text786Author Index789Subject Index792
Citations
More filters
Book•
01 Jan 2001
TL;DR: This is the essential companion to Jeffrey Wooldridge's widely-used graduate text Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data (MIT Press, 2001).
Abstract: The second edition of this acclaimed graduate text provides a unified treatment of two methods used in contemporary econometric research, cross section and data panel methods. By focusing on assumptions that can be given behavioral content, the book maintains an appropriate level of rigor while emphasizing intuitive thinking. The analysis covers both linear and nonlinear models, including models with dynamics and/or individual heterogeneity. In addition to general estimation frameworks (particular methods of moments and maximum likelihood), specific linear and nonlinear methods are covered in detail, including probit and logit models and their multivariate, Tobit models, models for count data, censored and missing data schemes, causal (or treatment) effects, and duration analysis. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data was the first graduate econometrics text to focus on microeconomic data structures, allowing assumptions to be separated into population and sampling assumptions. This second edition has been substantially updated and revised. Improvements include a broader class of models for missing data problems; more detailed treatment of cluster problems, an important topic for empirical researchers; expanded discussion of "generalized instrumental variables" (GIV) estimation; new coverage (based on the author's own recent research) of inverse probability weighting; a more complete framework for estimating treatment effects with panel data, and a firmly established link between econometric approaches to nonlinear panel data and the "generalized estimating equation" literature popular in statistics and other fields. New attention is given to explaining when particular econometric methods can be applied; the goal is not only to tell readers what does work, but why certain "obvious" procedures do not. The numerous included exercises, both theoretical and computer-based, allow the reader to extend methods covered in the text and discover new insights.
28,298 citations
Cites background from "Time series analysis"
...In light of the explosion of work in time series econometrics on asymptotic theory with persistent processes [often called unit root processes— see, for example, Hamilton (1994)], it may appear that we have not been careful in stating our assumptions....
[...]
Book•
08 Sep 2000TL;DR: This book presents dozens of algorithms and implementation examples, all in pseudo-code and suitable for use in real-world, large-scale data mining projects, and provides a comprehensive, practical look at the concepts and techniques you need to get the most out of real business data.
Abstract: The increasing volume of data in modern business and science calls for more complex and sophisticated tools. Although advances in data mining technology have made extensive data collection much easier, it's still always evolving and there is a constant need for new techniques and tools that can help us transform this data into useful information and knowledge. Since the previous edition's publication, great advances have been made in the field of data mining. Not only does the third of edition of Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques continue the tradition of equipping you with an understanding and application of the theory and practice of discovering patterns hidden in large data sets, it also focuses on new, important topics in the field: data warehouses and data cube technology, mining stream, mining social networks, and mining spatial, multimedia and other complex data. Each chapter is a stand-alone guide to a critical topic, presenting proven algorithms and sound implementations ready to be used directly or with strategic modification against live data. This is the resource you need if you want to apply today's most powerful data mining techniques to meet real business challenges. * Presents dozens of algorithms and implementation examples, all in pseudo-code and suitable for use in real-world, large-scale data mining projects. * Addresses advanced topics such as mining object-relational databases, spatial databases, multimedia databases, time-series databases, text databases, the World Wide Web, and applications in several fields. *Provides a comprehensive, practical look at the concepts and techniques you need to get the most out of real business data
23,600 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a unit root test for dynamic heterogeneous panels based on the mean of individual unit root statistics is proposed, which converges in probability to a standard normal variate sequentially with T (the time series dimension) →∞, followed by N (the cross sectional dimension)→∞.
12,838 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a simple alternative where the standard ADF regressions are augmented with the cross section averages of lagged levels and first-differences of the individual series is proposed, and it is shown that the individual CADF statistics are asymptotically similar and do not depend on the factor loadings.
Abstract: A number of panel unit root tests that allow for cross section dependence have been proposed in the literature that use orthogonalization type procedures to asymptotically eliminate the cross dependence of the series before standard panel unit root tests are applied to the transformed series. In this paper we propose a simple alternative where the standard ADF regressions are augmented with the cross section averages of lagged levels and first-differences of the individual series. New asymptotic results are obtained both for the individual CADF statistics, and their simple averages. It is shown that the individual CADF statistics are asymptotically similar and do not depend on the factor loadings. The limit distribution of the average CADF statistic is shown to exist and its critical values are tabulated. Small sample properties of the proposed test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments. The proposed test is applied to a panel of 17 OECD real exchange rate series as well as to log real earnings of households in the PSID data.
6,022 citations
04 Oct 2007
TL;DR: This reference work and graduate level textbook considers a wide range of models and methods for analyzing and forecasting multiple time series, which include vector autoregressive, cointegrated, vector Autoregressive moving average, multivariate ARCH and periodic processes as well as dynamic simultaneous equations and state space models.
Abstract: This reference work and graduate level textbook considers a wide range of models and methods for analyzing and forecasting multiple time series. The models covered include vector autoregressive, cointegrated, vector autoregressive moving average, multivariate ARCH and periodic processes as well as dynamic simultaneous equations and state space models. Least squares, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods are considered for estimating these models. Different procedures for model selection and model specification are treated and a wide range of tests and criteria for model checking are introduced. Causality analysis, impulse response analysis and innovation accounting are presented as tools for structural analysis. The book is accessible to graduate students in business and economics. In addition, multiple time series courses in other fields such as statistics and engineering may be based on it. Applied researchers involved in analyzing multiple time series may benefit from the book as it provides the background and tools for their tasks. It bridges the gap to the difficult technical literature on the topic.
5,244 citations
Cites methods from "Time series analysis"
...It may also be combined with univariate times series books or with texts like Fuller (1976) or Hamilton (1994) to form the basis of a one or two semester course on univariate and multivariate time series analysis....
[...]
References
More filters
[...]
TL;DR: This paper provides a concise overview of time series analysis in the time and frequency domains with lots of references for further reading.
Abstract: Any series of observations ordered along a single dimension, such as time, may be thought of as a time series. The emphasis in time series analysis is on studying the dependence among observations at different points in time. What distinguishes time series analysis from general multivariate analysis is precisely the temporal order imposed on the observations. Many economic variables, such as GNP and its components, price indices, sales, and stock returns are observed over time. In addition to being interested in the contemporaneous relationships among such variables, we are often concerned with relationships between their current and past values, that is, relationships over time.
9,919 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, it is pointed out that it is very common to see reported in applied econometric literature time series regression equations with an apparently high degree of fit, as measured by the coefficient of multiple correlation R2 or the corrected coefficient R2, but with an extremely low value for the Durbin-Watson statistic.
5,922 citations
Additional excerpts
...As discussed above, however, ARIMA modeling is designed to remove the variation in a time series that can be explained by such extraneous factors (see, e.g., Granger, 1980; Granger & Newbold, 1974; Mills & Crafts, 1996)....
[...]
TL;DR: The generalized least squares approach of Parks produces standard errors that lead to extreme overconfidence, often underestimating variability by 50% or more, and a new method is offered that is both easier to implement and produces accurate standard errors.
Abstract: We examine some issues in the estimation of time-series cross-section models, calling into question the conclusions of many published studies, particularly in the field of comparative political economy. We show that the generalized least squares approach of Parks produces standard errors that lead to extreme overconfidence, often underestimating variability by 50% or more. We also provide an alternative estimator of the standard errors that is correct when the error structures show complications found in this type of model. Monte Carlo analysis shows that these “panel-corrected standard errors” perform well. The utility of our approach is demonstrated via a reanalysis of one “social democratic corporatist” model.
5,670 citations
"Time series analysis" refers methods in this paper
...Asimilar approach is also taken in studies employing what has become known as cross-section time-series designs (Beck & Katz, 1995)....
[...]
TL;DR: Merton, Robert as discussed by the authors, 1968. "Social Structure and Anomie", in Social Theory and Social Structure. New York: Free Press: 185-214. Translation:
Abstract: Translation: Merton, Robert. 1968. "Social Structure and Anomie", in Merton, Robert. Social Theory and Social Structure. New York: Free Press: 185-214.
4,350 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1950
3,749 citations
"Time series analysis" refers background in this paper
...For example, early works by Simmel (1950) and Vold (1958) focused on how social groups in conflict tended to maintain an equilibrium that eventually led to social stability and order....
[...]