Time series forecasting of new cases and new deaths rate for COVID-19 using deep learning methods.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluated the performance of three deep learning methods and their bidirectional extensions to predict new cases and deaths rate one, three and seven-day ahead during the next 100 days.
Abstract: The first known case of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in December 2019. It has spread worldwide, leading to an ongoing pandemic, imposed restrictions and costs to many countries. Predicting the number of new cases and deaths during this period can be a useful step in predicting the costs and facilities required in the future. The purpose of this study is to predict new cases and deaths rate one, three and seven-day ahead during the next 100 days. The motivation for predicting every n days (instead of just every day) is the investigation of the possibility of computational cost reduction and still achieving reasonable performance. Such a scenario may be encountered in real-time forecasting of time series. Six different deep learning methods are examined on the data adopted from the WHO website. Three methods are LSTM, Convolutional LSTM, and GRU. The bidirectional extension is then considered for each method to forecast the rate of new cases and new deaths in Australia and Iran countries. This study is novel as it carries out a comprehensive evaluation of the aforementioned three deep learning methods and their bidirectional extensions to perform prediction on COVID-19 new cases and new death rate time series. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that Bi-GRU and Bi-Conv-LSTM models are used for prediction on COVID-19 new cases and new deaths time series. The evaluation of the methods is presented in the form of graphs and Friedman statistical test. The results show that the bidirectional models have lower errors than other models. A several error evaluation metrics are presented to compare all models, and finally, the superiority of bidirectional methods is determined. This research could be useful for organisations working against COVID-19 and determining their long-term plans.
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TL;DR: A comprehensive overview of works focused on automated epileptic seizure detection using DL techniques and neuroimaging modalities is presented in this article, where rehabilitation systems developed for epileptic seizures using DL have been analyzed, and a summary is provided.
Abstract: A variety of screening approaches have been proposed to diagnose epileptic seizures, using electroencephalography (EEG) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) modalities. Artificial intelligence encompasses a variety of areas, and one of its branches is deep learning (DL). Before the rise of DL, conventional machine learning algorithms involving feature extraction were performed. This limited their performance to the ability of those handcrafting the features. However, in DL, the extraction of features and classification are entirely automated. The advent of these techniques in many areas of medicine, such as in the diagnosis of epileptic seizures, has made significant advances. In this study, a comprehensive overview of works focused on automated epileptic seizure detection using DL techniques and neuroimaging modalities is presented. Various methods proposed to diagnose epileptic seizures automatically using EEG and MRI modalities are described. In addition, rehabilitation systems developed for epileptic seizures using DL have been analyzed, and a summary is provided. The rehabilitation tools include cloud computing techniques and hardware required for implementation of DL algorithms. The important challenges in accurate detection of automated epileptic seizures using DL with EEG and MRI modalities are discussed. The advantages and limitations in employing DL-based techniques for epileptic seizures diagnosis are presented. Finally, the most promising DL models proposed and possible future works on automated epileptic seizure detection are delineated.
132 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors reviewed the recent applications of wearables that have leveraged AI to achieve their objectives, and the most important challenges regarding design and development of wearable devices and the computation burden of using AI methods are presented.
46 citations
TL;DR: In this article , the authors review the recent applications of wearables that have leveraged artificial intelligence to achieve their objectives, including medical, industrial, and sport applications, and present the most important challenges regarding design and development of wearable devices and the computation burden of using AI methods.
46 citations
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper proposed an effective combined model system for wind speed forecasting tasks, which combines hybrid decomposition, multi-objective optimization, and deep learning modules to enhance the ability.
35 citations
TL;DR: In this article , an assumption-free data-driven model was developed to accurately forecast COVID-19 spread by using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) hyperparameters.
Abstract: Abstract This study aims to develop an assumption-free data-driven model to accurately forecast COVID-19 spread. Towards this end, we firstly employed Bayesian optimization to tune the Gaussian process regression (GPR) hyperparameters to develop an efficient GPR-based model for forecasting the recovered and confirmed COVID-19 cases in two highly impacted countries, India and Brazil. However, machine learning models do not consider the time dependency in the COVID-19 data series. Here, dynamic information has been taken into account to alleviate this limitation by introducing lagged measurements in constructing the investigated machine learning models. Additionally, we assessed the contribution of the incorporated features to the COVID-19 prediction using the Random Forest algorithm. Results reveal that significant improvement can be obtained using the proposed dynamic machine learning models. In addition, the results highlighted the superior performance of the dynamic GPR compared to the other models (i.e., Support vector regression, Boosted trees, Bagged trees, Decision tree, Random Forest, and XGBoost) by achieving an averaged mean absolute percentage error of around 0.1%. Finally, we provided the confidence level of the predicted results based on the dynamic GPR model and showed that the predictions are within the 95% confidence interval. This study presents a promising shallow and simple approach for predicting COVID-19 spread.
35 citations
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TL;DR: The findings are consistent with person-to-person transmission of this novel coronavirus in hospital and family settings, and the reports of infected travellers in other geographical regions.
7,392 citations
TL;DR: Hydroxychloroquine treatment is significantly associated with viral load reduction/disappearance in COVID-19 patients and its effect is reinforced by azithromycin, which was significantly more efficient for virus elimination.
4,213 citations
TL;DR: Investigators in Germany detected the spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from a person who had recently traveled from China and found it to be a novel virus.
Abstract: 2019-nCoV Transmission from Asymptomatic Patient In this report, investigators in Germany detected the spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from a person who had recently traveled from China...
3,492 citations
2,105 citations
TL;DR: Sensitivity analyses show that interventions, such as intensive contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation, can effectively reduce the control reproduction number and transmission risk, with the effect of travel restriction adopted by Wuhan on 2019-nCoV infection in Beijing being almost equivalent to increasing quarantine by a 100 thousand baseline value.
Abstract: Since the emergence of the first cases in Wuhan, China, the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection has been quickly spreading out to other provinces and neighboring countries. Estimation of the basic reproduction number by means of mathematical modeling can be helpful for determining the potential and severity of an outbreak and providing critical information for identifying the type of disease interventions and intensity. A deterministic compartmental model was devised based on the clinical progression of the disease, epidemiological status of the individuals, and intervention measures. The estimations based on likelihood and model analysis show that the control reproduction number may be as high as 6.47 (95% CI 5.71–7.23). Sensitivity analyses show that interventions, such as intensive contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation, can effectively reduce the control reproduction number and transmission risk, with the effect of travel restriction adopted by Wuhan on 2019-nCoV infection in Beijing being almost equivalent to increasing quarantine by a 100 thousand baseline value. It is essential to assess how the expensive, resource-intensive measures implemented by the Chinese authorities can contribute to the prevention and control of the 2019-nCoV infection, and how long they should be maintained. Under the most restrictive measures, the outbreak is expected to peak within two weeks (since 23 January 2020) with a significant low peak value. With travel restriction (no imported exposed individuals to Beijing), the number of infected individuals in seven days will decrease by 91.14% in Beijing, compared with the scenario of no travel restriction.
1,136 citations