Time series regression studies in environmental epidemiology
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TLDR
The analysis process is outlined, beginning with descriptive analysis, then focusing on issues in time series regression that differ from other regression methods: modelling short-term fluctuations in the presence of seasonal and long-term patterns, dealing with time varying confounding factors and modelling delayed (‘lagged’) associations between exposure and outcome.Abstract:
Time series regression studies have been widely used in environmental epidemiology, notably in investigating the short-term associations between exposures such as air pollution, weather variables or pollen, and health outcomes such as mortality, myocardial infarction or disease-specific hospital admissions. Typically, for both exposure and outcome, data are available at regular time intervals (e.g. daily pollution levels and daily mortality counts) and the aim is to explore short-term associations between them. In this article, we describe the general features of time series data, and we outline the analysis process, beginning with descriptive analysis, then focusing on issues in time series regression that differ from other regression methods: modelling short-term fluctuations in the presence of seasonal and long-term patterns, dealing with time varying confounding factors and modelling delayed ('lagged') associations between exposure and outcome. We finish with advice on model checking and sensitivity analysis, and some common extensions to the basic model.read more
Citations
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Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial
TL;DR: This tutorial uses a worked example to demonstrate a robust approach to ITS analysis using segmented regression and describes the main methodological issues associated with ITS analysis: over-dispersion of time series data, autocorrelation, adjusting for seasonal trends and controlling for time-varying confounders.
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Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study
Antonio Gasparrini,Yuming Guo,Masahiro Hashizume,Eric Lavigne,Antonella Zanobetti,Joel Schwartz,Aurelio Tobias,Shilu Tong,Joacim Rocklöv,Bertil Forsberg,Michela Leone,Manuela De Sario,Michelle L. Bell,Yueliang Leon Guo,Chang-Fu Wu,Haidong Kan,Seung-Muk Yi,Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho,Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva,Yasushi Honda,Ho Kim,Ben Armstrong +21 more
TL;DR: Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold, and the effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather.
Journal ArticleDOI
Temporal variation in heat-mortality associations: A multicountry study
Antonio Gasparrini,Yuming Guo,Masahiro Hashizume,Patrick L. Kinney,Elisaveta P. Petkova,Eric Lavigne,Antonella Zanobetti,Joel Schwartz,Aurelio Tobias,Michela Leone,Shilu Tong,Yasushi Honda,Ho Kim,Ben Armstrong +13 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors reported a decline in the heat-related mortality risk during the last decades, but these studies were frequently based on modeling approaches that do not take into account the effects of environmental factors.
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The use of controls in interrupted time series studies of public health interventions.
TL;DR: Researchers undertaking controlled interrupted time series studies should carefully consider a priori what confounding events may exist and whether different controls can exclude these or if they could introduce new sources of bias to the study.
Journal ArticleDOI
Association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden: time series study in 272 main Chinese cities
Renjie Chen,Peng Yin,Lijun Wang,Cong Liu,Yue Niu,Weidong Wang,Yixuan Jiang,Yunning Liu,Jiangmei Liu,Jinlei Qi,Jinling You,Haidong Kan,Haidong Kan,Maigeng Zhou +13 more
TL;DR: This nationwide study provides a comprehensive picture of the non-linear associations between ambient temperature and mortality from all natural causes and main cardiorespiratory diseases, as well as the corresponding disease burden that is mainly attributable to moderate cold temperatures in China.
References
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