Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
Timothy M. Lenton,Hermann Held,Elmar Kriegler,Elmar Kriegler,Jim W. Hall,Wolfgang Lucht,Stefan Rahmstorf,Hans Joachim Schellnhuber,Hans Joachim Schellnhuber +8 more
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It is explained how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points, and critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing.Abstract:
The term "tipping point" commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term "tipping element" to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
A safe operating space for humanity
Johan Rockström,Johan Rockström,Will Steffen,Will Steffen,Kevin J. Noone,Åsa Persson,Åsa Persson,F. Stuart Chapin,Eric F. Lambin,Timothy M. Lenton,Marten Scheffer,Carl Folke,Carl Folke,Hans Joachim Schellnhuber,Hans Joachim Schellnhuber,Björn Nykvist,Björn Nykvist,Cynthia A. de Wit,Terry P. Hughes,Sander van der Leeuw,Henning Rodhe,Sverker Sörlin,Sverker Sörlin,Peter K. Snyder,Robert Costanza,Robert Costanza,Uno Svedin,Malin Falkenmark,Malin Falkenmark,Louise Karlberg,Louise Karlberg,Robert W. Corell,Victoria J. Fabry,James Hansen,Brian Walker,Brian Walker,Diana Liverman,Diana Liverman,Katherine Richardson,Paul J. Crutzen,Jonathan A. Foley +40 more
TL;DR: Identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries that must not be transgressed could help prevent human activities from causing unacceptable environmental change, argue Johan Rockstrom and colleagues.
Journal ArticleDOI
Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet
Will Steffen,Will Steffen,Katherine Richardson,Johan Rockström,Sarah Cornell,Ingo Fetzer,Elena M. Bennett,Reinette Biggs,Reinette Biggs,Stephen R. Carpenter,Wim de Vries,Cynthia A. de Wit,Carl Folke,Carl Folke,Dieter Gerten,Jens Heinke,Jens Heinke,Jens Heinke,Georgina M. Mace,Linn Persson,Veerabhadran Ramanathan,Veerabhadran Ramanathan,Belinda Reyers,Belinda Reyers,Sverker Sörlin +24 more
TL;DR: An updated and extended analysis of the planetary boundary (PB) framework and identifies levels of anthropogenic perturbations below which the risk of destabilization of the Earth system (ES) is likely to remain low—a “safe operating space” for global societal development.
Journal ArticleDOI
A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests
Craig D. Allen,Alison K. Macalady,Haroun Chenchouni,Dominique Bachelet,Nate G. McDowell,Michel Vennetier,Thomas Kitzberger,Andreas Rigling,David D. Breshears,Edward H. Hogg,Patrick Gonzalez,Rod Fensham,Zhen Zhang,Jorge Castro,N.A. Demidova,Jong Hwan Lim,Gillian Allard,Steven W. Running,Akkin Semerci,Neil S. Cobb +19 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress and identify key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system.
Journal ArticleDOI
Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity
Johan Rockström,Johan Rockström,Will Steffen,Will Steffen,Kevin J. Noone,Åsa Persson,Åsa Persson,F. Stuart Chapin,Eric F. Lambin,Timothy M. Lenton,Marten Scheffer,Carl Folke,Carl Folke,Hans Joachim Schellnhuber,Hans Joachim Schellnhuber,Björn Nykvist,Björn Nykvist,Cynthia A. de Wit,Terry P. Hughes,Sander van der Leeuw,Henning Rodhe,Sverker Sörlin,Sverker Sörlin,Peter K. Snyder,Robert Costanza,Robert Costanza,Uno Svedin,Malin Falkenmark,Malin Falkenmark,Louise Karlberg,Louise Karlberg,Robert W. Corell,Victoria J. Fabry,James Hansen,Brian Walker,Brian Walker,Diana Liverman,Katherine Richardson,Paul J. Crutzen,Jonathan A. Foley +39 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed a new approach to global sustainability in which they define planetary boundaries within which they expect that humanity can operate safely. But the proposed concept of "planetary boundaries" lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development.
Journal ArticleDOI
Early-warning signals for critical transitions
Marten Scheffer,Jordi Bascompte,William A. Brock,Victor Brovkin,Stephen R. Carpenter,Vasilis Dakos,Hermann Held,Egbert H. van Nes,Max Rietkerk,George Sugihara +9 more
TL;DR: Work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.
References
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