Tracking the impact of COVID-19 on economic inequality at high frequency.
TL;DR: In this article, the impact of fast-unfolding crises, like the COVID-19 pandemic, on economic inequality was measured using data from bank records, and the authors found that government support, in particular extended unemployment insurance and benefits for furloughed workers, were generally effective at mitigating the increase in inequality.
Abstract: Pandemics have historically had a significant impact on economic inequality. However, official inequality statistics are only available at low frequency and with considerable delay, which challenges policymakers in their objective to mitigate inequality and fine-tune public policies. We show that using data from bank records it is possible to measure economic inequality at high frequency. The approach proposed in this paper allows measuring, timely and accurately, the impact on inequality of fast-unfolding crises, like the COVID-19 pandemic. Applying this approach to data from a representative sample of over three million residents of Spain we find that, absent government intervention, inequality would have increased by almost 30% in just one month. The granularity of the data allows analyzing with great detail the sources of the increases in inequality. In the Spanish case we find that it is primarily driven by job losses and wage cuts experienced by low-wage earners. Government support, in particular extended unemployment insurance and benefits for furloughed workers, were generally effective at mitigating the increase in inequality, though less so among young people and foreign-born workers. Therefore, our approach provides knowledge on the evolution of inequality at high frequency, the effectiveness of public policies in mitigating the increase of inequality and the subgroups of the population most affected by the changes in inequality. This information is fundamental to fine-tune public policies on the wake of a fast-moving pandemic like the COVID-19.
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TL;DR: The authors found that during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was an unusually high submission rate of scholarly articles, which may have penalized the scientific productivity of women.
Abstract: During the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was an unusually high submission rate of scholarly articles. Given that most academics were forced to work from home, the competing demands for familial duties may have penalized the scientific productivity of women. To test this hypothesis, we looked at submitted manuscripts and peer review activities for all Elsevier journals between February and May 2018-2020, including data on over 5 million authors and referees. Results showed that during the first wave of the pandemic, women submitted proportionally fewer manuscripts than men. This deficit was especially pronounced among more junior cohorts of women academics. The rate of the peer-review invitation acceptance showed a less pronounced gender pattern with women taking on a greater service responsibility for journals, except for health & medicine, the field where the impact of COVID-19 research has been more prominent. Our findings suggest that the first wave of the pandemic has created potentially cumulative advantages for men.
86 citations
TL;DR: The population in Europe and other high-income groups showed high incidence rates of COVID-19 while the death rate was high in Americas and other upper middle-income nations.
Abstract: Objective: To estimate global, regional, and national incidences and mortality of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 237 countries and territories since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic to 31 January, 2022. Methods: Comprehensive estimates were produced through global, regional, and national studies of cumulative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic. The incidence and mortality rate of COVID-19 was analyzed based on the World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 Dashboard data since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic to 31 January, 2022. The number of cumulative total confirmed cases, the number of cumulative total confirmed cases (cumulative incidence) per 100,000, the number of cumulative total death cases, and the number of cumulative total death cases (cumulative death rate) per 100,000 population were calculated according to the WHO regions, World Bank income groups, and each country. Results: A total of 349,641,119 of confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported globally on 31 January, 2022 (cumulative incidence of COVID-19, 4,485.72 per 100,000 population). Europe demonstrated the highest cumulative incidence of COVID-19 (14,039.95 per 100,000 population), followed by the Americas (12,512.57 per 100,000 population) showing a cumulative total death cases and cumulative death rate of COVID-19 of 5,592,266 and 71.75 per 100,000 population, respectively. The Americas presented highest cumulative death rate of COVID-19 (14,039.95 per 100,000 population), followed by Europe (12,512.57 per 100,000 population). The nation with the highest cumulative total cases of COVID-19 was the United States of America (n=69,727,991). However, the cumulative death rate of the COVID-19 was found higher in developing and underdeveloped countries. Conclusion: From the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to 31 January, 2022, 349.6 million of the worldwide population suffered symptoms of SARS-COV-2 and 5.6 million lost their lives due to it. The population in Europe and other high-income groups showed high incidence rates of COVID-19 while the death rate was high in Americas and other upper middle-income nations. According to figures of nationalities, the countries with compromised economic status presented a higher death rate despite relatively lower incidence of COVID-19 than the developed countries. The results of this study may provide crucially important for COVID-19 research and proper public health policies and strategies.
67 citations
TL;DR: Montalvo and Reynal-Querol as mentioned in this paper proposed a new methodology to track income inequality at high frequency using anonymized data from bank records for over three million account holders in Spain.
Abstract: SUMMARY G. Montalvo and Marta Reynal-Querol?>Official statistics on economic inequality are only available at low frequency and with considerable delay. This makes it challenging to assess the impact on inequality of fast-unfolding crises like the COVID-19 pandemic, and to rapidly evaluate and tailor policy responses. We propose a new methodology to track income inequality at high frequency using anonymized data from bank records for over three million account holders in Spain. Using this approach, we analyse how inequality evolved between February and November 2020 (compared to the same months of 2019). We first show that the wage distribution in our data matches very closely that from official labour surveys. We then document that, in the absence of government intervention, inequality would have increased dramatically, mainly due to job losses and wage cuts experienced by low-wage workers. The increase in pre-transfer inequality was especially pronounced among the young and the foreign-born, and in regions more dependent on services. Public transfers and unemployment insurance schemes were effective at providing a safety net to the most affected segments of the population and at offsetting most of the increase in inequality. Increased inequality is primarily driven by differential changes in employment rate. Indeed, using individual-level regressions, we find that, over the course of the pandemic, the probability of being employed decreased drastically for workers in the lower part of the pre-COVID wage distribution, young cohorts and foreign-born.
6 citations
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors describe macro-dynamics that are taking place because of aggressive public health policies and psychological tactics to influence public behavior, such as mass formation and crowd behavior.
Abstract: A series of aggressive restrictive measures were adopted around the world in 2020–2022 to attempt to prevent SARS-CoV-2 from spreading. However, it has become increasingly clear the most aggressive (lockdown) response strategies may involve negative side-effects such as a steep increase in poverty, hunger, and inequalities. Several economic, educational, and health repercussions have fallen disproportionately on children, students, young workers, and especially on groups with pre-existing inequalities such as low-income families, ethnic minorities, and women. This has led to a vicious cycle of rising inequalities and health issues. For example, educational and financial security decreased along with rising unemployment and loss of life purpose. Domestic violence surged due to dysfunctional families being forced to spend more time with each other. In the current narrative and scoping review, we describe macro-dynamics that are taking place because of aggressive public health policies and psychological tactics to influence public behavior, such as mass formation and crowd behavior. Coupled with the effect of inequalities, we describe how these factors can interact toward aggravating ripple effects. In light of evidence regarding the health, economic and social costs, that likely far outweigh potential benefits, the authors suggest that, first, where applicable, aggressive lockdown policies should be reversed and their re-adoption in the future should be avoided. If measures are needed, these should be non-disruptive. Second, it is important to assess dispassionately the damage done by aggressive measures and offer ways to alleviate the burden and long-term effects. Third, the structures in place that have led to counterproductive policies should be assessed and ways should be sought to optimize decision-making, such as counteracting groupthink and increasing the level of reflexivity. Finally, a package of scalable positive psychology interventions is suggested to counteract the damage done and improve humanity's prospects.
6 citations
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors examined the impact of COVID-19 among the older European population, focusing on their ability to make ends meet, loss of employment, and financial support received.
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic is revealing itself to be much more than a health crisis: it is becoming an economic and social one as well. Some segments of the population are more affected than others from the detrimental economic troubles brought about by COVID-19, which are likely going to become worse, and last longer, than the pandemic itself. Inequalities are going to rise, due to loss of wellbeing caused by the measures taken to contrast the spread of the virus. Such measures were directed towards everyone, despite the most vulnerable to the health consequences were also the ones with the smallest role on the economy. However, the economic consequences of the pandemic are especially affecting high-risk groups such as older adults. Making use of the SHARE Corona Survey, we examine the impact of COVID-19 among the older European population, focusing on their ability to make ends meet, loss of employment, and financial support received. Our results show that the ability to get through the month and the likelihood of job loss is positively correlated with increasing age, while aged individuals are less likely to receive financial support. Moreover, we show that such support mostly goes to those who really need it. We also reveal the existence of a social component of poverty. Finally, we highlight some interesting country group differences.
6 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore how household consumption responds to epidemics, utilizing transaction-level household financial data to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 virus on household consumption.
Abstract: We explore how household consumption responds to epidemics, utilizing transaction-level household financial data to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 virus. As the number of cases grew, households began to radically alter their typical spending across a number of major categories. Initially spending increased sharply, particularly in retail, credit card spending and food items. This was followed by a sharp decrease in overall spending. Households responded most strongly in states with shelter-in-place orders in place by March 29th. We explore heterogeneity across partisan affiliation, demographics and income. Greater levels of social distancing are associated with drops in spending, particularly in restaurants and retail.
446 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private companies, and they report daily statistics on consumer spending, business revenues, employment rates, and other key indicators disaggregated by ZIP code, industry, income group, and business size.
Abstract: We build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity at a granular level in real time using anonymized data from private companies. We report daily statistics on consumer spending, business revenues, employment rates, and other key indicators disaggregated by ZIP code, industry, income group, and business size. Using these data, we study how COVID-19 affected the economy by analyzing heterogeneity in its impacts. We first show that high-income individuals reduced spending sharply in mid-March 2020, particularly in areas with high rates of COVID-19 infection and in sectors that require in-person interaction. This reduction in spending greatly reduced the revenues of small businesses in affluent ZIP codes. These businesses laid off many of their employees, leading to widespread job losses especially among low-wage workers in affluent areas. High-wage workers experienced a “V-shaped” recession that lasted a few weeks, whereas low-wage workers experienced much larger job losses that persisted for several months. Building on this diagnostic analysis, we estimate the causal effects of policies aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of COVID-19. State-ordered reopenings of economies had small impacts on spending and employment. Stimulus payments to low-income households increased consumer spending sharply, but little of this increased spending flowed to businesses most affected by the COVID-19 shock, dampening its impacts on employment. Paycheck Protection Program loans increased employment at small businesses by only 2%, implying a cost of $377,000 per job saved. These results suggest that traditional macroeconomic tools – stimulating aggregate demand or providing liquidity to businesses – have diminished capacity to restore employment when consumer spending is constrained by health concerns. During a pandemic, it may be more fruitful to mitigate economic hardship through social insurance. More broadly, this analysis shows how public statistics constructed from private sector data can support many research and policy analyses without compromising privacy, providing a new tool for empirical macroeconomics.
372 citations
TL;DR: It is shown that social distancing following US state-level emergency declarations substantially varies by income, and this general pattern holds across income quantiles, data sources, and mobility measures.
Abstract: In the absence of a vaccine, social distancing measures are one of the primary tools to reduce the transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus, which causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We show that social distancing following US state-level emergency declarations substantially varies by income. Using mobility measures derived from mobile device location pings, we find that wealthier areas decreased mobility significantly more than poorer areas, and this general pattern holds across income quantiles, data sources, and mobility measures. Using an event study design focusing on behavior subsequent to state emergency orders, we document a reversal in the ordering of social distancing by income: Wealthy areas went from most mobile before the pandemic to least mobile, while, for multiple measures, the poorest areas went from least mobile to most. Previous research has shown that lower income communities have higher levels of preexisting health conditions and lower access to healthcare. Combining this with our core finding-that lower income communities exhibit less social distancing-suggests a double burden of the COVID-19 pandemic with stark distributional implications.
329 citations
Book•
24 Jan 2017
TL;DR: The "Four Horsemen" of leveling-mass-mobilization warfare, transformative revolutions, state collapse, and catastrophic plagues-have repeatedly destroyed the fortunes of the rich as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Are mass violence and catastrophes the only forces that can seriously decrease economic inequality? To judge by thousands of years of history, the answer is yes. Tracing the global history of inequality from the Stone Age to today, Walter Scheidel shows that it never dies peacefully. The Great Leveler is the first book to chart the crucial role of violent shocks in reducing inequality over the full sweep of human history around the world. The "Four Horsemen" of leveling-mass-mobilization warfare, transformative revolutions, state collapse, and catastrophic plagues-have repeatedly destroyed the fortunes of the rich. Today, the violence that reduced inequality in the past seems to have diminished, and that is a good thing. But it casts serious doubt on the prospects for a more equal future. An essential contribution to the debate about inequality, The Great Leveler provides important new insights about why inequality is so persistent-and why it is unlikely to decline anytime soon.
278 citations
TL;DR: The increasing availability of data derived from linked consumer financial accounts has the potential to dramatically expand the potential for research as mentioned in this paper, and the most comprehensive existing data sets can be found in the literature.
Abstract: The increasing availability of data derived from linked consumer financial accounts has the potential to dramatically expand the potential for research. Examining the most comprehensive existing se...
176 citations