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Treatment-Response Models for Counterfactual Reasoning with Continuous-time, Continuous-valued Interventions
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In this article, the authors propose to represent the treatment response curves using linear time-invariant dynamical systems, which provides a flexible means for modeling response over time to highly variable dose curves.Abstract:
Treatment effects can be estimated from observational data as the difference in potential outcomes. In this paper, we address the challenge of estimating the potential outcome when treatment-dose levels can vary continuously over time. Further, the outcome variable may not be measured at a regular frequency. Our proposed solution represents the treatment response curves using linear time-invariant dynamical systems---this provides a flexible means for modeling response over time to highly variable dose curves. Moreover, for multivariate data, the proposed method: uncovers shared structure in treatment response and the baseline across multiple markers; and, flexibly models challenging correlation structure both across and within signals over time. For this, we build upon the framework of multiple-output Gaussian Processes. On simulated and a challenging clinical dataset, we show significant gains in accuracy over state-of-the-art models.read more
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Neural Ordinary Differential Equations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors introduce a new family of deep neural network models called continuous normalizing flows, which parameterize the derivative of the hidden state using a neural network, and the output of the network is computed using a black-box differential equation solver.
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A clinically applicable approach to continuous prediction of future acute kidney injury
Nenad Tomasev,Xavier Glorot,Jack W. Rae,Michal Zielinski,Harry Askham,Andre Saraiva,Anne Mottram,Clemens Meyer,Suman V. Ravuri,Ivan Protsyuk,Alistair Connell,Cian Hughes,Alan Karthikesalingam,Julien Cornebise,Hugh Montgomery,Geraint Rees,Chris Laing,Clifton R. Baker,Kelly S. Peterson,Ruth M. Reeves,Demis Hassabis,Dominic King,Mustafa Suleyman,Trevor Back,Christopher Nielson,Christopher Nielson,Joseph R. Ledsam,Shakir Mohamed +27 more
TL;DR: A deep learning approach that predicts the risk of acute kidney injury and provides confidence assessments and a list of the clinical features that are most salient to each prediction, alongside predicted future trajectories for clinically relevant blood tests are developed.
Proceedings Article
Estimating counterfactual treatment outcomes over time through adversarially balanced representations
TL;DR: This paper introduces the Counterfactual Recurrent Network (CRN), a novel sequence-to-sequence model that leverages the increasingly available patient observational data to estimate treatment effects over time and answer such medical questions.
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Reliable Decision Support using Counterfactual Models
Peter Schulam,Suchi Saria +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors introduce the Counterfactual Gaussian Process (CGP) to predict the counterfactual future progression of continuous-time trajectories under sequences of future actions.
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Deconfounding Reinforcement Learning in Observational Settings
TL;DR: This work considers the problem of learning good policies solely from historical data in which unobserved factors affect both observed actions and rewards, and for the first time that confounders are taken into consideration for addressing full RL problems with observational data.
References
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Book
Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning
TL;DR: The treatment is comprehensive and self-contained, targeted at researchers and students in machine learning and applied statistics, and deals with the supervised learning problem for both regression and classification.
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TensorFlow: Large-Scale Machine Learning on Heterogeneous Distributed Systems
Martín Abadi,Ashish Agarwal,Paul Barham,Eugene Brevdo,Zhifeng Chen,Craig Citro,Greg S. Corrado,Andy Davis,Jeffrey Dean,Matthieu Devin,Sanjay Ghemawat,Ian Goodfellow,Andrew Harp,Geoffrey Irving,Michael Isard,Yangqing Jia,Rafal Jozefowicz,Lukasz Kaiser,Manjunath Kudlur,Josh Levenberg,Dan Mané,Rajat Monga,Sherry Moore,Derek G. Murray,Chris Olah,Mike Schuster,Jonathon Shlens,Benoit Steiner,Ilya Sutskever,Kunal Talwar,Paul A. Tucker,Vincent Vanhoucke,Vijay K. Vasudevan,Fernanda B. Viégas,Oriol Vinyals,Pete Warden,Martin Wattenberg,Martin Wicke,Yuan Yu,Xiaoqiang Zheng +39 more
TL;DR: The TensorFlow interface and an implementation of that interface that is built at Google are described, which has been used for conducting research and for deploying machine learning systems into production across more than a dozen areas of computer science and other fields.
Journal ArticleDOI
Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies.
TL;DR: A discussion of matching, randomization, random sampling, and other methods of controlling extraneous variation is presented in this paper, where the objective is to specify the benefits of randomization in estimating causal effects of treatments.
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Inference and missing data
TL;DR: In this article, it was shown that ignoring the process that causes missing data when making sampling distribution inferences about the parameter of the data, θ, is generally appropriate if and only if the missing data are missing at random and the observed data are observed at random, and then such inferences are generally conditional on the observed pattern of missing data.
Journal ArticleDOI
A limited memory algorithm for bound constrained optimization
TL;DR: An algorithm for solving large nonlinear optimization problems with simple bounds is described, based on the gradient projection method and uses a limited memory BFGS matrix to approximate the Hessian of the objective function.