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Journal ArticleDOI

Tuning parameter selection in high dimensional penalized likelihood

TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed to select the tuning parameter by optimizing the generalized information criterion with an appropriate model complexity penalty, which diverges at the rate of some power of ǫ(p) depending on the tail probability behavior of the response variables.
Abstract: Summary Determining how to select the tuning parameter appropriately is essential in penalized likelihood methods for high dimensional data analysis. We examine this problem in the setting of penalized likelihood methods for generalized linear models, where the dimensionality of covariates p is allowed to increase exponentially with the sample size n. We propose to select the tuning parameter by optimizing the generalized information criterion with an appropriate model complexity penalty. To ensure that we consistently identify the true model, a range for the model complexity penalty is identified in the generlized information criterion. We find that this model complexity penalty should diverge at the rate of some power of log (p) depending on the tail probability behaviour of the response variables. This reveals that using the Akaike information criterion or Bayes information criterion to select the tuning parameter may not be adequate for consistently identifying the true model. On the basis of our theoretical study, we propose a uniform choice of the model complexity penalty and show that the approach proposed consistently identifies the true model among candidate models with asymptotic probability 1. We justify the performance of the procedure proposed by numerical simulations and a gene expression data analysis.
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This review provides an update of important developments in the analysis of big data and forward strategies to accelerate the global transition to personalized medicine.
Abstract: Recent advances in high-throughput technologies have led to the emergence of systems biology as a holistic science to achieve more precise modeling of complex diseases. Many predict the emergence of personalized medicine in the near future. We are, however, moving from two-tiered health systems to a two-tiered personalized medicine. Omics facilities are restricted to affluent regions, and personalized medicine is likely to widen the growing gap in health systems between high and low-income countries. This is mirrored by an increasing lag between our ability to generate and analyze big data. Several bottlenecks slow-down the transition from conventional to personalized medicine: generation of cost-effective high-throughput data; hybrid education and multidisciplinary teams; data storage and processing; data integration and interpretation; and individual and global economic relevance. This review provides an update of important developments in the analysis of big data and forward strategies to accelerate the global transition to personalized medicine.

415 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An l1 regularization method for the linear log-contrast model that respects the unique features of compositional data is proposed and its usefulness is illustrated by an application to a microbiome study relating human body mass index to gut microbiome composition.
Abstract: Motivated by research problems arising in the analysis of gut microbiome and metagenomic data, we consider variable selection and estimation in high-dimensional regression with compositional covariates. We propose an l1 regularization method for the linear log-contrast model that respects the unique features of compositional data. We formulate the proposed procedure as a constrained convex optimization problem and introduce a coordinate descent method of multipliers for efficient computation. In the high-dimensional setting where the dimensionality grows at most exponentially with the sample size, model selection consistency and $\ell _{\infty }$ bounds for the resulting estimator are established under conditions that are mild and interpretable for compositional data. The numerical performance of our method is evaluated via simulation studies and its usefulness is illustrated by an application to a microbiome study relating human body mass index to gut microbiome composition.

207 citations

Repository
Fotios Petropoulos, Daniele Apiletti1, Vassilios Assimakopoulos2, Mohamed Zied Babai3, Devon K. Barrow4, Souhaib Ben Taieb5, Christoph Bergmeir6, Ricardo J. Bessa, Jakub Bijak7, John E. Boylan8, Jethro Browell9, Claudio Carnevale10, Jennifer L. Castle11, Pasquale Cirillo12, Michael P. Clements13, Clara Cordeiro14, Clara Cordeiro15, Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira16, Shari De Baets17, Alexander Dokumentov, Joanne Ellison7, Piotr Fiszeder18, Philip Hans Franses19, David T. Frazier6, Michael Gilliland20, M. Sinan Gönül, Paul Goodwin21, Luigi Grossi22, Yael Grushka-Cockayne23, Mariangela Guidolin22, Massimo Guidolin24, Ulrich Gunter25, Xiaojia Guo26, Renato Guseo22, Nigel Harvey27, David F. Hendry11, Ross Hollyman21, Tim Januschowski28, Jooyoung Jeon29, Victor Richmond R. Jose30, Yanfei Kang31, Anne B. Koehler32, Stephan Kolassa8, Nikolaos Kourentzes33, Nikolaos Kourentzes8, Sonia Leva, Feng Li34, Konstantia Litsiou35, Spyros Makridakis36, Gael M. Martin6, Andrew B. Martinez37, Andrew B. Martinez38, Sheik Meeran, Theodore Modis, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos39, Dilek Önkal, Alessia Paccagnini40, Alessia Paccagnini41, Anastasios Panagiotelis42, Ioannis P. Panapakidis43, Jose M. Pavía44, Manuela Pedio45, Manuela Pedio24, Diego J. Pedregal46, Pierre Pinson47, Patrícia Ramos48, David E. Rapach49, J. James Reade13, Bahman Rostami-Tabar50, Michał Rubaszek51, Georgios Sermpinis9, Han Lin Shang52, Evangelos Spiliotis2, Aris A. Syntetos50, Priyanga Dilini Talagala53, Thiyanga S. Talagala54, Len Tashman55, Dimitrios D. Thomakos56, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir57, Ezio Todini58, Juan Ramón Trapero Arenas46, Xiaoqian Wang31, Robert L. Winkler59, Alisa Yusupova8, Florian Ziel60 
Polytechnic University of Turin1, National Technical University of Athens2, KEDGE Business School3, University of Birmingham4, University of Mons5, Monash University6, University of Southampton7, Lancaster University8, University of Glasgow9, University of Brescia10, University of Oxford11, Zürcher Fachhochschule12, University of Reading13, University of the Algarve14, University of Lisbon15, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro16, Ghent University17, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń18, Erasmus University Rotterdam19, SAS Institute20, University of Bath21, University of Padua22, University of Virginia23, Bocconi University24, MODUL University Vienna25, University of Maryland, College Park26, University College London27, Amazon.com28, KAIST29, Georgetown University30, Beihang University31, Miami University32, University of Skövde33, Central University of Finance and Economics34, Manchester Metropolitan University35, University of Nicosia36, United States Department of the Treasury37, George Washington University38, Durham University39, Australian National University40, University College Dublin41, University of Sydney42, University of Thessaly43, University of Valencia44, University of Bristol45, University of Castilla–La Mancha46, Technical University of Denmark47, Polytechnic Institute of Porto48, Saint Louis University49, Cardiff University50, Warsaw School of Economics51, Macquarie University52, University of Moratuwa53, University of Sri Jayewardenepura54, International Institute of Minnesota55, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens56, Norwegian Computing Center57, University of Bologna58, Duke University59, University of Duisburg-Essen60
TL;DR: A non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting, offering a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts.
Abstract: Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

163 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organize, and evaluate forecasts.

119 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper proposed two-stage regularization methods for model selection in high-dimensional quadratic regression (QR) models, which maintain the hierarchical model structure between main effects and interaction effects.
Abstract: Quadratic regression (QR) models naturally extend linear models by considering interaction effects between the covariates. To conduct model selection in QR, it is important to maintain the hierarchical model structure between main effects and interaction effects. Existing regularization methods generally achieve this goal by solving complex optimization problems, which usually demands high computational cost and hence are not feasible for high-dimensional data. This article focuses on scalable regularization methods for model selection in high-dimensional QR. We first consider two-stage regularization methods and establish theoretical properties of the two-stage LASSO. Then, a new regularization method, called regularization algorithm under marginality principle (RAMP), is proposed to compute a hierarchy-preserving regularization solution path efficiently. Both methods are further extended to solve generalized QR models. Numerical results are also shown to demonstrate performance of the methods. S...

88 citations

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A new method for estimation in linear models called the lasso, which minimizes the residual sum of squares subject to the sum of the absolute value of the coefficients being less than a constant, is proposed.
Abstract: SUMMARY We propose a new method for estimation in linear models. The 'lasso' minimizes the residual sum of squares subject to the sum of the absolute value of the coefficients being less than a constant. Because of the nature of this constraint it tends to produce some coefficients that are exactly 0 and hence gives interpretable models. Our simulation studies suggest that the lasso enjoys some of the favourable properties of both subset selection and ridge regression. It produces interpretable models like subset selection and exhibits the stability of ridge regression. There is also an interesting relationship with recent work in adaptive function estimation by Donoho and Johnstone. The lasso idea is quite general and can be applied in a variety of statistical models: extensions to generalized regression models and tree-based models are briefly described.

40,785 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion.
Abstract: The problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion. These terms are a valid large-sample criterion beyond the Bayesian context, since they do not depend on the a priori distribution.

38,681 citations

Book
01 Jan 1983
TL;DR: In this paper, a generalization of the analysis of variance is given for these models using log- likelihoods, illustrated by examples relating to four distributions; the Normal, Binomial (probit analysis, etc.), Poisson (contingency tables), and gamma (variance components).
Abstract: The technique of iterative weighted linear regression can be used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters with observations distributed according to some exponential family and systematic effects that can be made linear by a suitable transformation. A generalization of the analysis of variance is given for these models using log- likelihoods. These generalized linear models are illustrated by examples relating to four distributions; the Normal, Binomial (probit analysis, etc.), Poisson (contingency tables) and gamma (variance components).

23,215 citations

Book
28 Jul 2013
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the important ideas in these areas in a common conceptual framework, and the emphasis is on concepts rather than mathematics, with a liberal use of color graphics.
Abstract: During the past decade there has been an explosion in computation and information technology. With it have come vast amounts of data in a variety of fields such as medicine, biology, finance, and marketing. The challenge of understanding these data has led to the development of new tools in the field of statistics, and spawned new areas such as data mining, machine learning, and bioinformatics. Many of these tools have common underpinnings but are often expressed with different terminology. This book describes the important ideas in these areas in a common conceptual framework. While the approach is statistical, the emphasis is on concepts rather than mathematics. Many examples are given, with a liberal use of color graphics. It is a valuable resource for statisticians and anyone interested in data mining in science or industry. The book's coverage is broad, from supervised learning (prediction) to unsupervised learning. The many topics include neural networks, support vector machines, classification trees and boosting---the first comprehensive treatment of this topic in any book. This major new edition features many topics not covered in the original, including graphical models, random forests, ensemble methods, least angle regression and path algorithms for the lasso, non-negative matrix factorization, and spectral clustering. There is also a chapter on methods for ``wide'' data (p bigger than n), including multiple testing and false discovery rates. Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani, and Jerome Friedman are professors of statistics at Stanford University. They are prominent researchers in this area: Hastie and Tibshirani developed generalized additive models and wrote a popular book of that title. Hastie co-developed much of the statistical modeling software and environment in R/S-PLUS and invented principal curves and surfaces. Tibshirani proposed the lasso and is co-author of the very successful An Introduction to the Bootstrap. Friedman is the co-inventor of many data-mining tools including CART, MARS, projection pursuit and gradient boosting.

19,261 citations

Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 1973
TL;DR: In this paper, it is shown that the classical maximum likelihood principle can be considered to be a method of asymptotic realization of an optimum estimate with respect to a very general information theoretic criterion.
Abstract: In this paper it is shown that the classical maximum likelihood principle can be considered to be a method of asymptotic realization of an optimum estimate with respect to a very general information theoretic criterion. This observation shows an extension of the principle to provide answers to many practical problems of statistical model fitting.

15,424 citations