Uncertainties in predicted ozone concentrations due to input uncertainties for the UAM-V photochemical grid model applied to the July 1995 OTAG domain
TL;DR: In this article, the effect of uncertainties in UAM-V input variables (emissions, initial and boundary conditions, meteorological variables, and chemical reactions) on the uncertainties in ozone predictions was investigated.
About: This article is published in Atmospheric Environment.The article was published on 2001-01-01. It has received 198 citations till now.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined various bias and error metrics and proposed PM model performance goals (the level of accuracy that is considered to be close to the best a model can be expected to achieve) and criteria that vary as a function of concentration and extinction.
626 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess the potential and limits of an advanced inversion method to estimate pollutant pre- cursor sources mainly from observations, using the four dimensional variational data assimilation technique.
Abstract: This study aims to assess the potential and limits of an advanced inversion method to estimate pollutant pre- cursor sources mainly from observations. Ozone, sulphur dioxide, and partly nitrogen oxides observations are taken to infer source strength estimates. As methodology, the four- dimensional variational data assimilation technique has been generalised and employed to include emission rate optimisa- tion, in addition to chemical state estimates as usual objective of data assimilation. To this end, the optimisation space of the variational assimilation system has been complemented by emission rate correction factors of 19 emitted species at each emitting grid point, involving the University of Cologne mesoscale EURAD model. For validation, predictive skills were assessed for an August 1997 ozone episode, comparing forecast performances of pure initial value optimisation, pure emission rate optimisation, and joint emission rate/initial value optimisation. Validation procedures rest on both measurements withheld from data assimilation and prediction skill evaluation of fore- casts after the inversion procedures. Results show that excel- lent improvements can be claimed for sulphur dioxide fore- casts, after emission rate optimisation. Significant improve- ments can be claimed for ozone forecasts after initial value and joint emission rate/initial value optimisation of precursor constituents. The additional benefits applying joint emission rate/initial value optimisation are moderate, and very useful in typical cases, where upwind emission rate optimisation is essential. In consequence of the coarse horizontal model grid resolution of 54 km, applied in this study, comparisons indi- cate that the inversion improvements can rest on assimilat- ing ozone observations only, as the inclusion of NOx obser- vations does not provide additional forecast skill. Emission estimates were found to be largely independent from initial guesses from emission inventories, demonstrating the poten- tial of the 4D-var method to infer emission rate improve- ments. The study also points to the need for improved hori- zontal model resolution to more efficient use of NO x obser- vations.
270 citations
Cites methods from "Uncertainties in predicted ozone co..."
...A thorough assessment of uncertainties and sensitivities of ozone prediction due to uncertainties of various input parameters has been provided by various studies, e.g.,Hanna et al. (1998, 2001) or Schmidt and Martin (2003)....
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Finnish Meteorological Institute1, University of Helsinki2, University of Manchester3, Danish Meteorological Institute4, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute5, University of Aveiro6, Central Institution for Meteorology and Geodynamics7, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts8, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki9, University of Hertfordshire10, University of Eastern Finland11, Technical University of Madrid12, The Cyprus Institute13, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens14, Free University of Berlin15, University of Cologne16, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic17
TL;DR: In this article, chemical weather forecasting models are described and compared on regional and continental scales in Europe, and the most prominent gaps of knowledge are highlighted for the following selected focus areas: emission inventories, the integration of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport models, boundary conditions and nesting of models, data assimilation of the various chemical species, improved understanding and parameterization of physical processes, better evaluation of models against data and the construction of model ensembles.
Abstract: Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed in this article include how weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry models are integrated into chemical weather forecasting systems, how physical processes are incorporated into the models through parameterization schemes, how the model architecture affects the predicted variables, and how air chemistry and aerosol processes are formulated. In addition, we discuss sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the models, user operational requirements, such as model availability and documentation, and output availability and dissemination. In this manner, this article allows for the evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various modelling systems and modelling approaches. Finally, this article highlights the most prominent gaps of knowledge for chemical weather forecasting models and suggests potential priorities for future research directions, for the following selected focus areas: emission inventories, the integration of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport models, boundary conditions and nesting of models, data assimilation of the various chemical species, improved understanding and parameterization of physical processes, better evaluation of models against data and the construction of model ensembles. © 2012 Author(s).
266 citations
TL;DR: A new generation of comprehensive RT-AQF model systems, to emerge in the coming decades, will be based on state-of-the-science 3-D RT- AQF models, supplemented with efficient data assimilation techniques and sophisticated statistical models, and supported with modern numerical/computational technologies and a suite of real-time observational data from all platforms.
185 citations
TL;DR: The ANN model has shown very good performance and demonstrated that the forecast of PM(10) emission up to two years can be made successfully and accurately.
146 citations
References
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15 Aug 1992
TL;DR: As part of a series of evaluated sets, rate constants and photochemical cross sections compiled by the NASA Panel for Data Evaluation are provided in this article, with particular emphasis on the ozone layer and its possible perturbation by anthropogenic and natural phenomena.
Abstract: As part of a series of evaluated sets, rate constants and photochemical cross sections compiled by the NASA Panel for Data Evaluation are provided. The primary application of the data is in the modeling of stratospheric processes, with particular emphasis on the ozone layer and its possible perturbation by anthropogenic and natural phenomena. Copies of this evaluation are available from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
3,218 citations
01 Aug 1992
TL;DR: As part of a series of evaluated sets, rate constants and photochemical cross sections compiled by the NASA Panel for Data Evaluation are provided in this paper, with particular emphasis on the ozone layer and its possible perturbation by anthropogenic and natural phenomena.
Abstract: As part of a series of evaluated sets, rate constants and photochemical cross sections compiled by the NASA Panel for Data Evaluation are provided. The primary application of the data is in the modeling of stratospheric processes, with particular emphasis on the ozone layer and its possible perturbation by anthropogenic and natural phenomena. Copies of this evaluation are available from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
2,897 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1990TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a software tool for uncertainty analysis, called Analytica, for quantitative policy analysis, which can be used to perform probability assessment and propagation and analysis of uncertainty.
Abstract: Preface 1. Introduction 2. Recent milestones 3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis 4. The nature and sources of uncertainty 5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation 6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty 7. Performing probability assessment 8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty 9. The graphic communication of uncertainty 10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis 11. Large and complex models 12. The value of knowing how little you know Index.
2,666 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a critical evaluation of the rate constants, mechanisms, and products of selected atmospheric reactions of hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur oxides in air is presented.
Abstract: This review is a critical evaluation of the rate constants, mechanisms, and products of selected atmospheric reactions of hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur oxides in air. The evaluation considers eight hydrocarbons (n‐butane, 2,3‐dimethylbutane, ethene, propene, 1‐butene, trans‐2‐butene, toluene, and m‐xylene) for which smog chamber irradiations have been carried out under carefully controlled conditions and which have been the subject of computer modeling studies by more than one research group. The reactions involved are treated in the following categories: inorganic reactions in organic‐NOx‐air irradiations; organic reactions of the formaldehyde‐NOx‐air system; organic reactions of the acetaldehyde‐NOx‐air system; organic reactions of the alkene‐NOx‐air systems; organic reactions of the alkane‐NOx‐air systems; organic reactions of selected carbonyl‐NOx‐air systems; organic reactions of the aromatic‐NOx‐air systems; combination reactions of peroxy radicals, and homogeneous gas phase SO2 reaction...
461 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a new method for parametric uncertainty analysis of numerical geophysical models is presented, which approximates model response surfaces, which are functions of model input parameters, using orthogonal polynomials, whose weighting functions are the probabilistic density functions of the input uncertain parameters.
Abstract: A new method for parametric uncertainty analysis of numerical geophysical models is presented. It approximates model response surfaces, which are functions of model input parameters, using orthogonal polynomials, whose weighting functions are the probabilistic density functions (PDFs) of the input uncertain parameters. This approach has been applied to the uncertainty analysis of an analytical model of the direct radiative forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols which has nine uncertain parameters. This method is shown to generate PDFs of the radiative forcing which are very similar to the exact analytical PDF. Compared with the Monte Carlo method for this problem, the new method is a factor of 25 to 60 times faster, depending on the error tolerance, and exhibits an exponential decrease of error with increasing order of the approximation.
360 citations