Understanding Public Hurricane Evacuation Decisions and Responses to Forecast and Warning Messages
TL;DR: The authors used data from a survey of coastal Miami-Dade County, Florida residents to explore how different types of forecast and warning messages influence evacuation decisions, in conjunction with other factors.
Abstract: This study uses data from a survey of coastal Miami-Dade County, Florida, residents to explore how different types of forecast and warning messages influence evacuation decisions, in conjunction with other factors. The survey presented different members of the public with different test messages about the same hypothetical hurricane approaching Miami. Participants’ responses to the information were evaluated using questions about their likelihood of evacuating and their perceptions of the information and the information source. Recipients of the test message about storm surge height and the message about extreme impacts from storm surge had higher evacuation intentions, compared to nonrecipients. However, recipients of the extreme-impacts message also rated the information as more overblown and the information source as less reliable. The probabilistic message about landfall location interacted with the other textual messages in unexpected ways, reducing the other messages’ effects on evacuation intentions. These results illustrate the importance of considering trade-offs, unintended effects, and information interactions when deciding how to conveyweatherinformation.Recipientsofthetestmessagethatdescribedtheeffectivenessofevacuationhad lowerperceptionsthattheinformationwasoverblown,suggestingthepotentialvalueofefficacymessaging.In addition, respondents with stronger individualist worldviews rated the information as significantly more overblown and had significantly lower evacuation intentions. This illustrates the importanceof understanding how and why responses to weather messages vary across subpopulations. Overall, the analysis demonstrates the potential value of systematically investigating how different people respond to different types of weather risk messages.
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TL;DR: The cases and synthesis presented here are organized around four key themes (resource access, governance, culture, and knowledge), which are approach from four social science fields (cultural anthropology, archaeology, human geography, and sociology).
Abstract: The varied effects of recent extreme weather events around the world exemplify the uneven impacts of climate change on populations, even within relatively small geographic regions. Differential human vulnerability to environmental hazards results from a range of social, economic, historical, and political factors, all of which operate at multiple scales. While adaptation to climate change has been the dominant focus of policy and research agendas, it is essential to ask as well why some communities and peoples are disproportionately exposed to and affected by climate threats. The cases and synthesis presented here are organized around four key themes (resource access, governance, culture, and knowledge), which we approach from four social science fields (cultural anthropology, archaeology, human geography, and sociology). Social scientific approaches to human vulnerability draw vital attention to the root causes of climate change threats and the reasons that people are forced to adapt to them. Because vulnerability is a multidimensional process rather than an unchanging state, a dynamic social approach to vulnerability is most likely to improve mitigation and adaptation planning efforts. This article is categorized under:Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Values-Based Approach to Vulnerability and Adaptation.
290 citations
Cites background from "Understanding Public Hurricane Evac..."
...Worldviews and risk perceptions influence whether, for example, people evacuate from a hurricane (Morss et al., 2016)....
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TL;DR: Risk perception was a consistent positive predictor of evacuation, as were several demographic indicators, prior evacuation behavior, and having an evacuation plan.
Abstract: Research on evacuation from natural disasters has been published across the peer-reviewed literature among several disparate disciplinary outlets and has suggested a wide variety of predictors of evacuation behavior. We conducted a systematic review to summarize and evaluate the current literature on demographic, storm-related, and psychosocial correlates of natural disaster evacuation behavior. Eighty-three eligible papers utilizing 83 independent samples were identified. Risk perception was a consistent positive predictor of evacuation, as were several demographic indicators, prior evacuation behavior, and having an evacuation plan. The influence of prior experiences, self-efficacy, personality, and links between expected and actual behavior were examined less frequently. Prospective, longitudinal designs are relatively uncommon. Although difficult to conduct in postdisaster settings, more prospective, methodologically rigorous studies would bolster inferences. Results synthesize the current body of literature on evacuation behavior and can help inform the design of more effective predisaster evacuation warnings and procedures.
162 citations
Cites background or result from "Understanding Public Hurricane Evac..."
...(27,28,44,45) Older age was generally associated with decreased likelihood of evacuation,(22,40,42,46,47) although not uniformly.(24,29) White/Caucasian individuals(20,27,40,48) were most likely to actually evacuate; black individuals reported greater intent to evacuate from a future disaster,(49,50) but were less likely to evacuate in an actual disaster....
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...Evacuating before a prior storm was associated with intention to evacuate a future storm,(29,50,55,62,75) and with actual evacuation behavior,(8,27,46) although, conversely, one study found the number of previous evacuations did not significantly predict subsequent evacuation....
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...In general, a longer duration of residence in an atrisk area was associated with reduced likelihood of evacuation,(27,29,38,39,46,54,66) and decreases in perceptions of risk....
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TL;DR: This article examined six different aspects of people's past hurricane experiences and explored how these different experiences influence people's evacuation intentions for a hypothetical hurricane as mediated through multiple dimensions of risk perception (cognitive, negative affective) and efficacy beliefs (self efficacy, response efficacy).
Abstract: Individuals’ past experiences with a hazard can encompass many different aspects, which can influence how they judge and respond to a future hurricane risk. This study, which utilizes survey data from coastal residents who are at risk from hurricanes, adds to understanding of past hazard experience in two ways. First, it examines six different aspects of people’s past hurricane experiences and the relationships among them. Then, it draws on risk theories of behavioral responses to explore how these different experiences influence people’s evacuation intentions for a hypothetical hurricane as mediated through multiple dimensions of risk perception (cognitive, negative affective) and efficacy beliefs (self efficacy, response efficacy). The results suggest that people can experience emotional or otherwise severe impacts from a hurricane even if they do not have experiences with evacuation, property damage, or financial loss. The results also reveal that different past hurricane experiences operated t...
138 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated flash flood forecast and warning communication, interpretation, and decision making, using data from a survey of 418 members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, USA.
96 citations
TL;DR: Recommendations by the National Research Council (NRC), the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and Weather-Ready Nation workshop participants have encouraged the Nationa... as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Recommendations by the National Research Council (NRC), the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and Weather-Ready Nation workshop participants have encouraged the Nationa...
61 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a case study in least squares fitting and interpretation of a linear model, where they use nonparametric transformations of X and Y to fit a linear regression model.
Abstract: Introduction * General Aspects of Fitting Regression Models * Missing Data * Multivariable Modeling Strategies * Resampling, Validating, Describing, and Simplifying the Model * S-PLUS Software * Case Study in Least Squares Fitting and Interpretation of a Linear Model * Case Study in Imputation and Data Reduction * Overview of Maximum Likelihood Estimation * Binary Logistic Regression * Logistic Model Case Study 1: Predicting Cause of Death * Logistic Model Case Study 2: Survival of Titanic Passengers * Ordinal Logistic Regression * Case Study in Ordinal Regrssion, Data Reduction, and Penalization * Models Using Nonparametic Transformations of X and Y * Introduction to Survival Analysis * Parametric Survival Models * Case Study in Parametric Survival Modeling and Model Approximation * Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Model * Case Study in Cox Regression
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TL;DR: This article reviewed major advances in verbal reports over the past decade, including new evidence on how giving verbal reports affects subjects' cognitive processes, and on the validity and completeness of such reports.
Abstract: Since the publication of Ericsson and Simon's work in the early 1980s, verbal data has been used increasingly to study cognitive processes in many areas of psychology, and concurrent and retrospective verbal reports are now generally accepted as important sources of data on subjects' cognitive processes in specific tasks. In this revised edition of the book that put protocol analysis on firm theoretical ground, the authors review major advances in verbal reports over the past decade, including new evidence on how giving verbal reports affects subjects' cognitive processes, and on the validity and completeness of such reports. In a new preface Ericsson and Simon summarize the central issues covered in the book and provide an updated version of their information-processing model, which explains verbalization and verbal reports. They describe new studies on the effects of verbalization, interpreting the results of these studies and showing how their theory can be extended to account for them. Next, they address the issue of completeness of verbally reported information, reviewing the new evidence in three particularly active task domains. They conclude by citing recent contributions to the techniques for encoding protocols, raising general issues, and proposing directions for future research.
6,689 citations
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22 Mar 1984
TL;DR: In this article, the authors reviewed major advances in verbal reports over the past decade, including new evidence on how giving verbal reports affects subjects' cognitive processes, and on the validity and completeness of such reports.
Abstract: Since the publication of Ericsson and Simon's work in the early 1980s, verbal data has been used increasingly to study cognitive processes in many areas of psychology, and concurrent and retrospective verbal reports are now generally accepted as important sources of data on subjects' cognitive processes in specific tasks In this revised edition of the book that put protocol analysis on firm theoretical ground, the authors review major advances in verbal reports over the past decade, including new evidence on how giving verbal reports affects subjects' cognitive processes, and on the validity and completeness of such reports In a new preface Ericsson and Simon summarize the central issues covered in the book and provide an updated version of their information-processing model, which explains verbalization and verbal reports They describe new studies on the effects of verbalization, interpreting the results of these studies and showing how their theory can be extended to account for them Next, they address the issue of completeness of verbally reported information, reviewing the new evidence in three particularly active task domains They conclude by citing recent contributions to the techniques for encoding protocols, raising general issues, and proposing directions for future research
5,613 citations
Posted Content•
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TL;DR: It is shown that emotional reactions to risky situations often diverge from cognitive assessments of those risks, and when such divergence occurs, emotional reactions often drive behavior.
Abstract: Virtually all current theories of choice under risk or uncertainty are cognitive and consequentialist. They assume that people assess the desirability and likelihood of possible outcomes of choice alternatives and integrate this information through some type of expectation-based calculus to arrive at decision. The authors propose an alternative theoretical perspective, the risk-as-feelings hypothesis, that highlights the role of affect experienced at the moment of decision making. Drawing on research from clinical, physiological, and other subfield of psychology, they show that emotional reactions to risky situations often drive behavior. The risk-as-feelings hypothesis is shown to explain a wide range of phenomena that have resisted interpretation in cognitive-consequentialist terms.
4,901 citations
"Understanding Public Hurricane Evac..." refers background in this paper
...…against the threat) and self-efficacy (beliefs about one’s ability to perform an activity), can influence protective decisions (e.g., Rogers 1983; Witte 1992, 1994; Loewenstein et al. 2001; Ruiter et al. 2001; Slovic et al. 2004; Grothmann and Reusswig 2006; McComas 2006; Bubeck et al. 2012)....
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TL;DR: This article proposed the risk-as-feelings hypothesis, which highlights the role of affect experienced at the moment of decision making, and showed that emotional reactions to risky situations often diverge from cognitive assessments of those risks.
Abstract: Virtually all current theories of choice under risk or uncertainty are cognitive and consequentialist. They assume that people assess the desirability and likelihood of possible outcomes of choice alternatives and integrate this information through some type of expectation-based calculus to arrive at a decision. The authors propose an alternative theoretical perspective, the risk-as-feelings hypothesis, that highlights the role of affect experienced at the moment of decision making. Drawing on research from clinical, physiological, and other subfields of psychology, they show that emotional reactions to risky situations often diverge from cognitive assessments of those risks. When such divergence occurs, emotional reactions often drive behavior. The risk-as-feelings hypothesis is shown to explain a wide range of phenomena that have resisted interpretation in cognitive-consequentialist terms.
4,647 citations