Book ChapterDOI

# Understanding the Interrelationship Between Commodity and Stock Indices Daily Movement Using ACE and Recurrence Analysis

01 Jan 2014-pp 211-230
Abstract: The relationship between the temporal evolution of the commodity market and the stock market has long term implications for policy makers, and particularly in the case of emerging markets, the economy as a whole. We analyze the complex dynamics of the daily variation of two indices of stock and commodity exchange respectively of India. To understand whether there is any difference between emerging markets and developed markets in terms of a dynamic correlation between the two market indices, we also examine the complex dynamics of stock and commodity indices of the US market. We compare the daily variation of the commodity and stock prices in the two countries separately. For this purpose we have considered commodity India along with Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Dow Jones-AIG Commodity (DJ-AIGCI) indices for stock and commodities, USA, from June 2005 to August 2008. To analyse the dynamics of the time variation of the indices we use a set of analytical methods based on recurrence plots. Our studies show that the dynamics of the Indian stock and commodity exchanges have a lagged correlation while those of US market have a lead correlation and a weaker correlation.
Topics: Stock market (64%), Commodity market (63%), Stock market index (61%), Stock (geology) (53%), Emerging markets (52%)
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01 Jan 2016-
TL;DR: The nonlinear dynamics chaos and econometrics is universally compatible with any devices to read and is available in the digital library an online access to it is set as public so you can download it instantly.

19 citations

01 Jan 2010-
TL;DR: The results show that synchronization of growth rates were higher among the euro area member states during the second half of the 1980s and from 1997 to roughly 2002, suggesting that apart from specific times when European integration initiatives were being implemented, globalization was likely the dominant factor behind international business cycle synchronization.
Abstract: Synchronization of growth rates are an important feature of international business cycles, particularly in relation to regional integration projects such as the single currency in Europe. Synchronization of growth rates clearly enhances the effectiveness of European Central Bank monetary policy, ensuring that policy changes are attuned to the dynamics of growth and business cycles in the majority of member states. In this paper a dissimilarity metric is constructed by measuring the topological differences between the GDP growth patterns in recurrence plots for individual countries. The results show that synchronization of growth rates were higher among the Euro area member states during the second half of the 1980s and from 1997 to roughly 2002. Apart from these two time periods, Euro area member states do not appear to be more synchronized than a group of major international countries, signifying that globalization was the major cause of international business cycle synchronization.

18 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
, Hui Yang1
01 Aug 2018-Chaos
TL;DR: Experimental results show that the generalized recurrence network approach yields superior performance in the visualization of recurrence patterns in spatial data and in the extraction of salient features to characterize recurrence dynamics in spatial systems.
Abstract: Nonlinear dynamical systems exhibit complex recurrence behaviors. Recurrence plot is widely used to graphically represent the patterns of recurrence dynamics and further facilitates the quantification of recurrence patterns, namely, recurrence quantification analysis. However, traditional recurrence methods tend to be limited in their ability to handle spatial data due to high dimensionality and geometric characteristics. Prior efforts have been made to generalize the recurrence plot to a four-dimensional space for spatial data analysis, but this framework can only provide graphical visualization of recurrence patterns in the projected reduced-dimension space (i.e., two- or three- dimensions). In this paper, we propose a new weighted recurrence network approach for spatial data analysis. A weighted network model is introduced to represent the recurrence patterns in spatial data, which account for both pixel intensities and spatial distance simultaneously. Note that each network node represents a location in the high-dimensional spatial data. Network edges and weights preserve complex spatial structures and recurrence patterns. Network representation is shown to be an effective means to provide a complete picture of recurrence patterns in the spatial data. Furthermore, we leverage network statistics to characterize and quantify recurrence properties and features in the spatial data. Experimental results in both simulation and real-world case studies show that the generalized recurrence network approach yields superior performance in the visualization of recurrence patterns in spatial data and in the extraction of salient features to characterize recurrence dynamics in spatial systems.

11 citations

Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 2016-
Abstract: The success of a trading strategy can be significantly enhanced by tracking accurately the implied volatility changes, which refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk about the degree of changes in a market index. This fosters the need for accurate estimation of the time-synchronization profile between a given market index and its associated volatility index. In this chapter, we advance existing solutions, which are based widely on the typical correlation, for identifying this temporal interdependence. To this end, cross-recurrence plot (CRP) analysis is exploited for extracting the underlying dynamics of a given market and volatility indexes pair, along with their time-synchronization profile. However, CRPs of degraded quality, for instance due to missing information, may yield a completely erroneous estimation of this profile. To overcome this drawback, a restoration stage based on the concept of matrix completion is applied on a corrupted CRP prior to the estimation of the time-synchronization relationship. A performance evaluation on the S&P 500 index and its associated VIX volatility index reveals the superior capability of our proposed approach in restoring accurately their CRP and subsequently estimating a temporal relation between the two indexes even when $$80\,\%$$ of CRP values are missing.

1 citations

### Cites background from "Understanding the Interrelationship..."

• ...CRPs, in specific, have been already exploited in the financial industry to analyze convergence and synchronicity of business and growth cycles [24], to examine the interactive behavior between the hourly accepted weighted average price and the hourly required load in electricity markets [25], as well as for understanding the interrelation between commodity and stock indexes [26] or the coupling of the European banking and insurance sectors [27]....

[...]

##### References
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Book
01 Jan 1997-
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Abstract: We examine the issue of determining an acceptable minimum embedding dimension by looking at the behavior of near neighbors under changes in the embedding dimension from d\ensuremath{\rightarrow}d+1. When the number of nearest neighbors arising through projection is zero in dimension ${\mathit{d}}_{\mathit{E}}$, the attractor has been unfolded in this dimension. The precise determination of ${\mathit{d}}_{\mathit{E}}$ is clouded by noise,'' and we examine the manner in which noise changes the determination of ${\mathit{d}}_{\mathit{E}}$. Our criterion also indicates the error one makes by choosing an embedding dimension smaller than ${\mathit{d}}_{\mathit{E}}$. This knowledge may be useful in the practical analysis of observed time series.

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Journal ArticleDOI
01 Nov 1987-EPL
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Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jan 2007-Physics Reports
TL;DR: The aim of this work is to provide the readers with the know how for the application of recurrence plot based methods in their own field of research, and detail the analysis of data and indicate possible difficulties and pitfalls.
Abstract: Recurrence is a fundamental property of dynamical systems, which can be exploited to characterise the system's behaviour in phase space. A powerful tool for their visualisation and analysis called recurrence plot was introduced in the late 1980's. This report is a comprehensive overview covering recurrence based methods and their applications with an emphasis on recent developments. After a brief outline of the theory of recurrences, the basic idea of the recurrence plot with its variations is presented. This includes the quantification of recurrence plots, like the recurrence quantification analysis, which is highly effective to detect, e. g., transitions in the dynamics of systems from time series. A main point is how to link recurrences to dynamical invariants and unstable periodic orbits. This and further evidence suggest that recurrences contain all relevant information about a system's behaviour. As the respective phase spaces of two systems change due to coupling, recurrence plots allow studying and quantifying their interaction. This fact also provides us with a sensitive tool for the study of synchronisation of complex systems. In the last part of the report several applications of recurrence plots in economy, physiology, neuroscience, earth sciences, astrophysics and engineering are shown. The aim of this work is to provide the readers with the know how for the application of recurrence plot based methods in their own field of research. We therefore detail the analysis of data and indicate possible difficulties and pitfalls.

2,533 citations

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