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Untargeted saliva metabolomics reveals COVID-19 severity: Saliva Metabolomics for SARS-COV-2 Prognosis

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors demonstrate that salivary metabolomics can reveal COVID-19 severity using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LCS) and RT-PCR testing.
Abstract: Background The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to represent an ongoing global health issue given the potential for vaccine escape and the low likelihood of eliminating all reservoirs of the disease. Whilst diagnostic testing has progressed at pace, there is an unmet clinical need to develop tests that are prognostic, to triage the high volumes of patients arriving in hospital settings. Recent research has shown that serum metabolomics has potential for prognosis of disease progression. 1 In a hospital setting, collection of saliva samples is more convenient for both staff and patients, and therefore offers an alternative sampling matrix to serum. We demonstrate here for the first time that saliva metabolomics can reveal COVID-19 severity. Methods 88 saliva samples were collected from hospitalised patients with clinical suspicion of COVID-19, alongside clinical metadata. COVID-19 diagnosis was confirmed using RT-PCR testing. COVID severity was classified using clinical descriptors first proposed by SR Knight et al. Metabolites were extracted from saliva samples and analysed using liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. Results In this work, positive percent agreement of 1.00 between a PLS-DA metabolomics model and the clinical diagnosis of COVID severity was achieved. The negative percent agreement with the clinical severity diagnosis was also 1.00, for overall percent agreement of 1.00. Conclusions This research demonstrates that liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry can identify salivary biomarkers capable of separating high severity COVID-19 patients from low severity COVID-19 patients in a small cohort study.

Summary (2 min read)

Introduction

  • Halide perovskites have been at the forefront of new-emerging energy materials, due to their great potential in design and fabrication of new-generation optoelectronic devices, such as solar cells, 1 photodetectors, 2-5 light-emitting devices, 6,7 fieldeffect transistors 8,9 and lasers.
  • For the all-inorganic counterparts, a PLQY of 19.4 % was realized in Cs3Bi2Br9, exhibiting quite good photostability and moisture stability as well.
  • 31 This might also lead to the loss of the desired materials due to the mismatch with the current database.
  • Moreover, it enriches the structural family of non-lead perovskites as well as holds the potential for optoelectronic applications.

Synthesis and Crystal Growth of Cs3BiBr6

  • During the synthesis of the single crystal, if the amount of CsBr was much lower than the BiBr3, Cs3Bi2Br9 was obtained.
  • Therefore, controlling the ratio between the two raw materials is a key factor to obtain the single crystals of Cs3BiBr6.

X-ray Crystallographic Studies

  • Data collections were performed on a Bruker APEX-II CCD diffractometer equipped with graphite monochromated Mo Kα radiation (λ = 0.71073 Å) at 293 K.
  • The final refined structural parameters were checked by the PLATON program.
  • 34 Crystallographic data and structural refinements are summarized in Table S1 in Electronic Supplementary Information (ESI).
  • Rietveld refinement of the powder XRD was performed by the Fullprof program.

Material characterization

  • X-ray photodetection spectroscopy (XPS) (Thermo Scientific) was performed to analyze the compositions of samples, with Al-Kα (1486 eV) as the excitation X-ray source.
  • The pressure of the analysis chamber was maintained at 2 × 10 -10 mbar during measurements.
  • All characterizations were carried out at room temperature.
  • Scanning electron Microscope (SEM) and Energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX) characterizations were carried out on an FEI Quanta FEG 200 ESEM.
  • The absorption behaviours of the samples were studied by the UV-vis spectrometer from Agilent.

Technologies (Santa Clara, USA). Absorption (α/S) data was

  • Converted from diffuse reflectance spectra using the Kubelka−Munk function, α/S = (1 − R) 2 /2R, where R is the reflectance coefficient and α, S are the absorption and scattering coefficient.
  • 35 All the photoelectrochemical characterizations were performed on the Autolab workstation.
  • The phases and purities of all samples were also characterized by powder XRD with Cu Kα1 (λ = 1.5406 Å) radiation.
  • Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) was performed in the Mettler Toledo, Star E System (Columbus, OH, USA) with a GC 100 gas controller in a nitrogen atmosphere at a heating rate of 10 °C/min.
  • It should be noted that all the measurements were performed.

Fabrication of Photodetectors

  • ITO electrodes were prepared by the ultrasonic cleaning in acetone, ethanol, and Milli-Q water successfully.
  • Cs3BiBr6 single crystals were dissolved into DMF and then a certain amount of solution was deposited on the device surface by drop-casting, followed by annealing at 100 °C.
  • Bromidecoordination environment for (a) Bi1 and (b) Bi2. (c) 3D framework on the bc plane.
  • Fig. 2 Chemical and structural relationship among a series of perovskites.

Results and discussion

  • The 3D framework of Cs3BiBr6 is displayed in Fig. 1c, where all BiBr6 octahedra are isolated from each other forming 0D perovskite structure.
  • The purity of samples was confirmed by powder X-ray diffraction (Fig. 3a).
  • This indicates a higher thermal stability of Cs3BiBr6 than in the CH3NH3PbBr3.
  • Fig. 5e and 5f show the responsivity and detectivity of the photodetector versus voltage and light density, respectively.

Conclusions

  • In summary, the authors have successfully synthesized a non-toxic single crystal of perovskite, Cs3BiBr6.
  • And it is the first time to analyse its crystallography structure, which features as an isolated BiBr6 polyhedra.
  • Photodetector based on this perovskite is fabricated, exhibiting a good detectivity of 0.8*10 9 Jones under the 400 nm light illumination, demonstrating the potential for application into optoelectronic devices.
  • Besides, this material displays high stability against thermal and moisture.
  • It further facilitates the development of lead-free perovskites toward environment friendly energy conversion devices.

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Page 1
Untargeted saliva metabolomics reveals COVID-19 severity 1
Running head: Saliva Metabolomics for SARS-COV-2 Prognosis 2
Cecile F. Frampas
1
, Katie Longman
1
, Matt P. Spick
1
,
Holly M. Lewis
1
, Catia D. S. 3
Costa
2
, Alex Stewart
3
, Deborah Dunn-Walters
3
, Danni Greener
4
, George E. 4
Evetts
4
, Debra Skene
3
, Drupad Trivedi
5
, Andrew R. Pitt
5
, Katherine Hollywood
5
, 5
Perdita Barran
5
and Melanie J. Bailey
1,2
6
1
Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7
7XH, UK 8
2
Surrey Ion Beam Centre, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7XH, UK 9
3
Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7XH, 10
UK 11
4
Frimley Park Hospital, Frimley Health NHS Trust, GU16 7UJ, UK 12
5
Manchester Institute of Biotechnology, University of Manchester, M1 7DN, United 13
Kingdom 14
Corresponding Author: Dr Melanie Bailey, tel +44 (0)1483 682593, 15
m.bailey@surrey.ac.uk, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of
16
Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7XH, UK 17
Preprint location: MedRxiv 18
CF, KL and MS contributed equally to this paper. 19
Keywords: Saliva, Metabolomics, COVID-19, Prognostic Test, Liquid Chromatography 20
Mass Spectrometry 21
22
. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 9, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.06.21260080doi: medRxiv preprint
NOTE: This preprint reports new research that has not been certified by peer review and should not be used to guide clinical practice.

Page 2
Abbreviations 23
COVID-19 Coronavirus disease 19
CRP C-reactive protein
HTN Hypertension
IHD Ischemic heart disease
KEGG Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes
LC Liquid chromatography
LC-MS Liquid chromatography mass spectrometry
LOOCV Leave-one-out cross validation
MS Mass spectrometry
MS/MS or MS
2
Tandem mass spectrometry
NPA Negative percent agreement
PCA Principal components analysis
PCR Polymerase chain reaction
PLS-DA Partial least squares-discriminant analysis
PPA Positive percent agreement
QC Quality control
RT-PCR Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction
SARS-CoV-2 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
T2DM Type 2 diabetes mellitus
VIP Variable importance in projection
24
. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 9, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.06.21260080doi: medRxiv preprint

1
ABSTRACT 25
Background 26
The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to represent an ongoing global health issue given 27
the potential for vaccine escape and the low likelihood of eliminating all reservoirs of 28
the disease. Whilst diagnostic testing has progressed at pace, there is an unmet 29
clinical need to develop tests that are prognostic, to triage the high volumes of patients 30
arriving in hospital settings. Recent research has shown that serum metabolomics has 31
potential for prognosis of disease progression.
1
In a hospital setting, collection of 32
saliva samples is more convenient for both staff and patients, and therefore offers an 33
alternative sampling matrix to serum. We demonstrate here for the first time that saliva 34
metabolomics can reveal COVID-19 severity. 35
Methods 36
88 saliva samples were collected from hospitalised patients with clinical suspicion of 37
COVID-19, alongside clinical metadata. COVID-19 diagnosis was confirmed using RT-38
PCR testing. COVID severity was classified using clinical descriptors first proposed by 39
SR Knight et al. Metabolites were extracted from saliva samples and analysed using 40
liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. 41
Results 42
In this work, positive percent agreement of 1.00 between a PLS-DA metabolomics 43
model and the clinical diagnosis of COVID severity was achieved. The negative 44
percent agreement with the clinical severity diagnosis was also 1.00, for overall 45
percent agreement of 1.00. 46
Conclusions 47
. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 9, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.06.21260080doi: medRxiv preprint

2
This research demonstrates that liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry can 48
identify salivary biomarkers capable of separating high severity COVID-19 patients 49
from low severity COVID-19 patients in a small cohort study. 50
51
. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 9, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.06.21260080doi: medRxiv preprint

3
1. Introduction 52
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused a sustained threat to global health since the 53
discovery of the virus in 2019.
2
Whilst great strides have been made in both treatment 54
and vaccination development,
3,4
the disease has inflicted multiple waves of infection 55
throughout the world during 2020 and into 2021.
5,6
COVID-19 has higher fatality rates 56
than seasonal influenza,
7
and in addition, new variants are constantly evolving with 57
the potential for either reduced vaccine effectiveness or altered lethality.
8
As a 58
consequence, there is a continuing need both for better understanding of the impact 59
of COVID-19 on the host metabolism as well as for prognostic tests that can be used 60
to triage the high volumes of patients arriving in hospital settings. 61
Nasopharyngeal swabs followed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) have been 62
adopted worldwide for SARS-CoV-2 detection. However, supply chains for swabs 63
rapidly collapsed amongst exponential increases in demand for testing, highlighting 64
the urgency for alternative sample types and testing approaches. Furthermore, whilst 65
PCR tests are easily deployable and highly selective for the virus, these approaches 66
yield no prognostic information and cannot easily be delivered for rapid turnaround at 67
the point of care, for example during a hospital admissions process. In contrast, tests 68
based on mass spectrometry can be provided in minutes, with mass spectrometry 69
instrumentation typically available in hospital pathology laboratories. Prognostic tests, 70
whilst challenging due to the varied phenotypes that may present themselves,
9
could 71
be used to manage demand for hospitalisation and treatment, especially should 72
vaccine escape lead to future waves of COVID-19 infection. 73
Metabolic biomarkers in serum have been identified that carry prognostic information, 74
10,11
but sampling blood is invasive. Our experience in collecting and analysing patient 75
. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted July 9, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.06.21260080doi: medRxiv preprint

Citations
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01 May 2022-Talanta
TL;DR: In this article , a paper-based colorimetric sensor with an origami structure, containing general receptors such as pH-sensitive organic dyes, Lewis donors or acceptors, functionalized nanoparticles, and ion metal complexes, was used to diagnose COVID-19 patients and differentiate them from healthy individuals.

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TL;DR: In this article , correlations between serum metabolites, salivary metabolites and sebum lipids are studied for the first time, showing that alterations to skin lipid profiles coincide with dyslipidaemia in serum.
Abstract: The majority of metabolomics studies to date have utilised blood serum or plasma, biofluids that do not necessarily address the full range of patient pathologies. Here, correlations between serum metabolites, salivary metabolites and sebum lipids are studied for the first time. 83 COVID-19 positive and negative hospitalised participants provided blood serum alongside saliva and sebum samples for analysis by liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. Widespread alterations to serum-sebum lipid relationships were observed in COVID-19 positive participants versus negative controls. There was also a marked correlation between sebum lipids and the immunostimulatory hormone dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate in the COVID-19 positive cohort. The biofluids analysed herein were also compared in terms of their ability to differentiate COVID-19 positive participants from controls; serum performed best by multivariate analysis (sensitivity and specificity of 0.97), with the dominant changes in triglyceride and bile acid levels, concordant with other studies identifying dyslipidemia as a hallmark of COVID-19 infection. Sebum performed well (sensitivity 0.92; specificity 0.84), with saliva performing worst (sensitivity 0.78; specificity 0.83). These findings show that alterations to skin lipid profiles coincide with dyslipidaemia in serum. The work also signposts the potential for integrated biofluid analyses to provide insight into the whole-body atlas of pathophysiological conditions.

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TL;DR: In this article, a systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to assess the accuracy of mass spectrometry diagnostic tests developed so far, across a wide range of biological matrices, and additionally to assess risks of bias and applicability in studies published to date.
Abstract: Background The global COVID-19 pandemic has led to extensive development in many fields, including the diagnosis of COVID-19 infection by mass spectrometry. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the accuracy of mass spectrometry diagnostic tests developed so far, across a wide range of biological matrices, and additionally to assess risks of bias and applicability in studies published to date. Method 23 retrospective observational cohort studies were included in the systematic review using the PRISMA-DTA framework, with a total of 2858 COVID-19 positive participants and 2544 controls. Risks of bias and applicability were assessed via a QUADAS-2 questionnaire. A meta-analysis was also performed focusing on sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic accuracy and Youden's Index, in addition to assessing heterogeneity. Findings Sensitivity averaged 0.87 in the studies reviewed herein (interquartile range 0.81–0.96) and specificity 0.88 (interquartile range 0.82–0.98), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic summary curve of 0.93. By subgroup, the best diagnostic results were achieved by viral proteomic analyses of nasopharyngeal swabs and metabolomic analyses of plasma and serum. The performance of other sampling matrices (breath, sebum, saliva) was less good, indicating that these protocols are currently insufficiently mature for clinical application. Conclusions This systematic review and meta-analysis demonstrates the potential for mass spectrometry and ‘omics in achieving accurate test results for COVID-19 diagnosis, but also highlights the need for further work to optimize and harmonize practice across laboratories before these methods can be translated to clinical applications.

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TL;DR: In this paper , the utility of saliva and plasma metabolomic profiles as a potential parameter for risk stratifying Coronavirus disease 2019 patients was investigated, and the results showed that saliva metabolites such as sphingosine and kynurenine were significantly different between COVID-19 infected and non-infected individuals.
Abstract: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is strongly linked to dysregulation of various molecular, cellular, and physiological processes that change abundance of different biomolecules including metabolites that may be ultimately used as biomarkers for disease progression and severity. It is important at early stage to readily distinguish those patients that are likely to progress to moderate and severe stages.This study aimed to investigate the utility of saliva and plasma metabolomic profiles as a potential parameter for risk stratifying COVID-19 patients.LC-MS/MS-based untargeted metabolomics were used to profile the changes in saliva and plasma metabolomic profiles of COVID-19 patients with different severities.Saliva and plasma metabolites were screened in 62 COVID-19 patients and 18 non-infected controls. The COVID-19 group included 16 severe, 15 moderate, 16 mild, and 15 asymptomatic cases. Thirty-six differential metabolites were detected in COVID-19 versus control comparisons. SARS-CoV-2 induced metabolic derangement differed with infection severity. The metabolic changes were identified in saliva and plasma, however, saliva showed higher intensity of metabolic changes. Levels of saliva metabolites such as sphingosine and kynurenine were significantly different between COVID-19 infected and non-infected individuals; while linoleic acid and Alpha-ketoisovaleric acid were specifically increased in severe compared to non-severe patients. As expected, the two prognostic biomarkers of C-reactive protein and D-dimer were negatively correlated with sphingosine and 5-Aminolevulinic acid, and positively correlated with L-Tryptophan and L-Kynurenine.Saliva disease-specific and severity-specific metabolite could be employed as potential COVID-19 diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers.

7 citations

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TL;DR: A colorimetric sensor array designed on a paper substrate with a microfluidic structure has been developed in this article , which is capable of detecting COVID-19 disease by tracking metabolites of urine samples.
Abstract: A colorimetric sensor array designed on a paper substrate with a microfluidic structure has been developed. This array is capable of detecting COVID-19 disease by tracking metabolites of urine samples. In order to determine minor metabolic changes, various colorimetric receptors consisting of gold and silver nanoparticles, metalloporphyrins, metal ion complexes, and pH-sensitive indicators are used in the array structure. By injecting a small volume of the urine sample, the color pattern of the sensor changes after 7 min, which can be observed visually. The color changes of the receptors (recorded by a scanner) are subsequently calculated by image analysis software and displayed as a color difference map. This study has been performed on 130 volunteers, including 60 patients infected by COVID-19, 55 healthy controls, and 15 cured individuals. The resulting array provides a fingerprint response for each category due to the differences in the metabolic profile of the urine sample. The principal component analysis-discriminant analysis confirms that the assay sensitivity to the correctly detected patient, healthy, and cured participants is equal to 73.3%, 74.5%, and 66.6%, respectively. Apart from COVID-19, other diseases such as chronic kidney disease, liver disorder, and diabetes may be detectable by the proposed sensor. However, this performance of the sensor must be tested in the studies with a larger sample size. These results show the possible feasibility of the sensor as a suitable alternative to costly and time-consuming standard methods for rapid detection and control of viral and bacterial infectious diseases and metabolic disorders.

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References
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Abstract: MetaboAnalyst (https://www.metaboanalyst.ca) is an easy-to-use web-based tool suite for comprehensive metabolomic data analysis, interpretation, and integration with other omics data. Since its first release in 2009, MetaboAnalyst has evolved significantly to meet the ever-expanding bioinformatics demands from the rapidly growing metabolomics community. In addition to providing a variety of data processing and normalization procedures, MetaboAnalyst supports a wide array of functions for statistical, functional, as well as data visualization tasks. Some of the most widely used approaches include PCA (principal component analysis), PLS-DA (partial least squares discriminant analysis), clustering analysis and visualization, MSEA (metabolite set enrichment analysis), MetPA (metabolic pathway analysis), biomarker selection via ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve analysis, as well as time series and power analysis. The current version of MetaboAnalyst (4.0) features a complete overhaul of the user interface and significantly expanded underlying knowledge bases (compound database, pathway libraries, and metabolite sets). Three new modules have been added to support pathway activity prediction directly from mass peaks, biomarker meta-analysis, and network-based multi-omics data integration. To enable more transparent and reproducible analysis of metabolomic data, we have released a companion R package (MetaboAnalystR) to complement the web-based application. This article provides an overview of the main functional modules and the general workflow of MetaboAnalyst 4.0, followed by 12 detailed protocols: © 2019 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Basic Protocol 1: Data uploading, processing, and normalization Basic Protocol 2: Identification of significant variables Basic Protocol 3: Multivariate exploratory data analysis Basic Protocol 4: Functional interpretation of metabolomic data Basic Protocol 5: Biomarker analysis based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves Basic Protocol 6: Time-series and two-factor data analysis Basic Protocol 7: Sample size estimation and power analysis Basic Protocol 8: Joint pathway analysis Basic Protocol 9: MS peaks to pathway activities Basic Protocol 10: Biomarker meta-analysis Basic Protocol 11: Knowledge-based network exploration of multi-omics data Basic Protocol 12: MetaboAnalystR introduction.

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TL;DR: The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was detected in the self-collected saliva of 91.7% of patients and Serial saliva viral load monitoring generally showed a declining trend.
Abstract: The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was detected in the self-collected saliva of 91.7% (11/12) of patients. Serial saliva viral load monitoring generally showed a declining trend. Live virus was detected in saliva by viral culture. Saliva is a promising noninvasive specimen for diagnosis, monitoring, and infection control in patients with 2019-nCoV infection.

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TL;DR: A comprehensive metabolite analysis of saliva samples obtained from 215 individuals using capillary electrophoresis time-of-flight mass spectrometry identified 57 principal metabolites that can be used to accurately predict the probability of being affected by each individual disease.
Abstract: Saliva is a readily accessible and informative biofluid, making it ideal for the early detection of a wide range of diseases including cardiovascular, renal, and autoimmune diseases, viral and bacterial infections and, importantly, cancers. Saliva-based diagnostics, particularly those based on metabolomics technology, are emerging and offer a promising clinical strategy, characterizing the association between salivary analytes and a particular disease. Here, we conducted a comprehensive metabolite analysis of saliva samples obtained from 215 individuals (69 oral, 18 pancreatic and 30 breast cancer patients, 11 periodontal disease patients and 87 healthy controls) using capillary electrophoresis time-of-flight mass spectrometry (CE-TOF-MS). We identified 57 principal metabolites that can be used to accurately predict the probability of being affected by each individual disease. Although small but significant correlations were found between the known patient characteristics and the quantified metabolites, the profiles manifested relatively higher concentrations of most of the metabolites detected in all three cancers in comparison with those in people with periodontal disease and control subjects. This suggests that cancer-specific signatures are embedded in saliva metabolites. Multiple logistic regression models yielded high area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUCs) to discriminate healthy controls from each disease. The AUCs were 0.865 for oral cancer, 0.973 for breast cancer, 0.993 for pancreatic cancer, and 0.969 for periodontal diseases. The accuracy of the models was also high, with cross-validation AUCs of 0.810, 0.881, 0.994, and 0.954, respectively. Quantitative information for these 57 metabolites and their combinations enable us to predict disease susceptibility. These metabolites are promising biomarkers for medical screening.

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09 Sep 2020-BMJ
TL;DR: The 4C Mortality Score outperformed existing scores, showed utility to directly inform clinical decision making, and can be used to stratify patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 into different management groups.
Abstract: OBJECTIVE:To develop and validate a pragmatic risk score to predict mortality in patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19). DESIGN:Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING:International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study (performed by the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium-ISARIC-4C) in 260 hospitals across England, Scotland, and Wales. Model training was performed on a cohort of patients recruited between 6 February and 20 May 2020, with validation conducted on a second cohort of patients recruited after model development between 21 May and 29 June 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (age ≥18 years) admitted to hospital with covid-19 at least four weeks before final data extraction. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE:In-hospital mortality. RESULTS:35 463 patients were included in the derivation dataset (mortality rate 32.2%) and 22 361 in the validation dataset (mortality rate 30.1%). The final 4C Mortality Score included eight variables readily available at initial hospital assessment: age, sex, number of comorbidities, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, level of consciousness, urea level, and C reactive protein (score range 0-21 points). The 4C Score showed high discrimination for mortality (derivation cohort: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.79; validation cohort: 0.77, 0.76 to 0.77) with excellent calibration (validation: calibration-in-the-large=0, slope=1.0). Patients with a score of at least 15 (n=4158, 19%) had a 62% mortality (positive predictive value 62%) compared with 1% mortality for those with a score of 3 or less (n=1650, 7%; negative predictive value 99%). Discriminatory performance was higher than 15 pre-existing risk stratification scores (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve range 0.61-0.76), with scores developed in other covid-19 cohorts often performing poorly (range 0.63-0.73). CONCLUSIONS:An easy-to-use risk stratification score has been developed and validated based on commonly available parameters at hospital presentation. The 4C Mortality Score outperformed existing scores, showed utility to directly inform clinical decision making, and can be used to stratify patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 into different management groups. The score should be further validated to determine its applicability in other populations. STUDY REGISTRATION:ISRCTN66726260.

742 citations

Related Papers (5)
Frequently Asked Questions (9)
Q1. What was the use of the cross-validation test?

26,27 Leave-one-out cross-validation was used for model validation test 197 accuracy, sensitivity and specificity; variable importance in projection (VIP) scores 198 were used to assess feature significance alongside p-values and effect sizes (fold 199 count). 

In this paper, the authors explore the potential of saliva to distinguish between severe and mild COVID-19 infection, with a view to providing a prognostic test that can be used to triage the high volumes of patients arriving in hospital settings. 

supply chains for swabs 63 rapidly collapsed amongst exponential increases in demand for testing, highlighting 64 the urgency for alternative sample types and testing approaches. 

Prognostic tests, 70 whilst challenging due to the varied phenotypes that may present themselves, 9 could 71 be used to manage demand for hospitalisation and treatment, especially should 72 vaccine escape lead to future waves of COVID-19 infection. 

No 292 pathways met the criteria for both meaningful impact and statistical significance, 293 possibly due to the number features identified in each pathway being notably smaller 294 than typically achieved in serum or plasma, consistent with saliva being a filtrate and 295 in general featuring lower metabolic concentrations. 

Population metadata overview 215The study population analysed in this work included 75 participants, comprising 47 216 participants presenting with a positive COVID-19 RT-PCR test and 28 participants 217 presenting without. 

Of these 360 features, 37 were identified as related to medical 249 interventions or food and were excluded, leaving 323 for statistical analysis. 

The samples were agitated for one hour, sonicated three times 137 for 30 seconds, with resting on ice for 30 seconds between each sonication. 

MB oversaw all aspects of 370 this work, including obtaining funding for the study, clinical access, experimental 371 design, analysis and was responsible for supervision of the research team.