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Journal ArticleDOI

Vaccination and herd immunity to infectious diseases

01 Jan 1985-Nature (Nature Publishing Group)-Vol. 318, Iss: 6044, pp 323-329
TL;DR: An understanding of the relationship between the transmission dynamics of infectious agents and herd immunity provides a template for the design of effective control programmes based on mass immunization.
Abstract: An understanding of the relationship between the transmission dynamics of infectious agents and herd immunity provides a template for the design of effective control programmes based on mass immunization. Mathematical models of the spread and persistence of infection provide important insights into the problem of how best to protect the community against disease.

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The small-population paradigm has not yet contributed significantly to conserving endangered species in the wild because it treats an erect (smallness) as if it were a cause and hence is of scant theoretical interest.
Abstract: Conservation biology has two threads: the small-population paradigm which deals with the erect of smallness on the persistence of a population, and the declining-population paradigm which deals with the cause of smallness and its cure. The processes relevant to the small-population paradigm are amenable to theoretical examination because they generalize across species and are subsumed by an inclusive higher category: stochasticity. In contrast, the processes relevant to the declining-population paradigm are essentially humdrum, being not one but many. So far they have defied tight generalization and hence are of scant theoretical interest. The small-population paradigm has not yet contributed significantly to conserving endangered species in the wild because it treats an erect (smallness) as if it were a cause

2,110 citations


Cites background from "Vaccination and herd immunity to in..."

  • ...He pointed out the parallels between such a composite model and that depicting the eradication of infectious diseases by vaccination of a proportion of the 'patches' (i.e. hosts) harbouring infection (Anderson & May 1985)....

    [...]

Journal ArticleDOI
19 Apr 1990-Nature
TL;DR: An approach is presented for making short-term predictions about the trajectories of chaotic dynamical systems, applied to data on measles, chickenpox, and marine phytoplankton populations, to show how apparent noise associated with deterministic chaos can be distinguished from sampling error and other sources of externally induced environmental noise.
Abstract: An approach is presented for making short-term predictions about the trajectories of chaotic dynamical systems. The method is applied to data on measles, chickenpox, and marine phytoplankton populations, to show how apparent noise associated with deterministic chaos can be distinguished from sampling error and other sources of externally induced environmental noise.

1,652 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Historical, epidemiologic, theoretical, and pragmatic public health perspectives on the concept of herd immunity are provided.
Abstract: The term "herd immunity" is widely used but carries a variety of meanings. Some authors use it to describe the proportion immune among individuals in a population. Others use it with reference to a particular threshold proportion of immune individuals that should lead to a decline in incidence of infection. Still others use it to refer to a pattern of immunity that should protect a population from invasion of a new infection. A common implication of the term is that the risk of infection among susceptible individuals in a population is reduced by the presence and proximity of immune individuals (this is sometimes referred to as "indirect protection" or a "herd effect"). We provide brief historical, epidemiologic, theoretical, and pragmatic public health perspectives on this concept.

973 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This new popularity of herd immunity comes as a consequence of several recent major achievements of vaccination programs, i.e.: the historic success of the global smallpox eradication program; dramatic increases in vaccination coverage stimulated by national programs and by the Expanded Programme on Immunization.
Abstract: Herd immunity has to do with the protection of populations from infection which is brought about by the presence of immune individuals. The concept has a special aura, in its implication of an extension of the protection imparted by an immunization program beyond vaccinated to unvaccinated individuals and in its apparent provision of a means to eliminate totally some infectious diseases. It is a recurrent theme in the medical literature and has been discussed frequently during the past decade. This new popularity comes as a consequence of several recent major achievements of vaccination programs, i.e.: the historic success of the global smallpox eradication program; dramatic increases in vaccination coverage stimulated by national programs and by the Expanded Programme on Immunization; the commitment of several countries to eradicate measles; and international dedication to eliminate neonatal tetanus and to eradicate poliomyelitis from the world by the year 2000.'

818 citations


Cites background from "Vaccination and herd immunity to in..."

  • ...Though much of this work has been published in journals and in language unfamiliar to the medical and public health communities, its isolation has been reduced in recent years largely through the publications of Anderson and May and their colleagues (8, 17, 20, 21, 23, 24, 28, 29, 31, 33, 36)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
19 May 2020-Immunity
TL;DR: The basic concepts of herd immunity are explained and its implications in the context of COVID-19 are discussed, showing the devastating impact of a novel, infectious pathogen on a susceptible population.

805 citations


Cites background from "Vaccination and herd immunity to in..."

  • ...across demographic groups, among others (Anderson and May, 1985)....

    [...]

  • ...R0 refers to the average number of secondary infections caused by a single infectious individual introduced into a completely susceptible population (Anderson and May, 1985)....

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References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors considered the problem of finding a causal factor which appears to be adequate to account for the magnitude of the frequent epidemics of disease which visit almost every population.
Abstract: (1) One of the most striking features in the study of epidemics is the difficulty of finding a causal factor which appears to be adequate to account for the magnitude of the frequent epidemics of disease which visit almost every population. It was with a view to obtaining more insight regarding the effects of the various factors which govern the spread of contagious epidemics that the present investigation was undertaken. Reference may here be made to the work of Ross and Hudson (1915-17) in which the same problem is attacked. The problem is here carried to a further stage, and it is considered from a point of view which is in one sense more general. The problem may be summarised as follows: One (or more) infected person is introduced into a community of individuals, more or less susceptible to the disease in question. The disease spreads from the affected to the unaffected by contact infection. Each infected person runs through the course of his sickness, and finally is removed from the number of those who are sick, by recovery or by death. The chances of recovery or death vary from day to day during the course of his illness. The chances that the affected may convey infection to the unaffected are likewise dependent upon the stage of the sickness. As the epidemic spreads, the number of unaffected members of the community becomes reduced. Since the course of an epidemic is short compared with the life of an individual, the population may be considered as remaining constant, except in as far as it is modified by deaths due to the epidemic disease itself. In the course of time the epidemic may come to an end. One of the most important probems in epidemiology is to ascertain whether this termination occurs only when no susceptible individuals are left, or whether the interplay of the various factors of infectivity, recovery and mortality, may result in termination, whilst many susceptible individuals are still present in the unaffected population. It is difficult to treat this problem in its most general aspect. In the present communication discussion will be limited to the case in which all members of the community are initially equally susceptible to the disease, and it will be further assumed that complete immunity is conferred by a single infection.

8,238 citations

01 Jan 1927
TL;DR: The present communication discussion will be limited to the case in which all members of the community are initially equally susceptible to the disease, and it will be further assumed that complete immunity is conferred by a single infection.
Abstract: (1) One of the most striking features in the study of epidemics is the difficulty of finding a causal factor which appears to be adequate to account for the magnitude of the frequent epidemics of disease which visit almost every population. It was with a view to obtaining more insight regarding the effects of the various factors which govern the spread of contagious epidemics that the present investigation was undertaken. Reference may here be made to the work of Ross and Hudson (1915-17) in which the same problem is attacked. The problem is here carried to a further stage, and it is considered from a point of view which is in one sense more general. The problem may be summarised as follows: One (or more) infected person is introduced into a community of individuals, more or less susceptible to the disease in question. The disease spreads from the affected to the unaffected by contact infection. Each infected person runs through the course of his sickness, and finally is removed from the number of those who are sick, by recovery or by death. The chances of recovery or death vary from day to day during the course of his illness. The chances that the affected may convey infection to the unaffected are likewise dependent upon the stage of the sickness. As the epidemic spreads, the number of unaffected members of the community becomes reduced. Since the course of an epidemic is short compared with the life of an individual, the population may be considered as remaining constant, except in as far as it is modified by deaths due to the epidemic disease itself. In the course of time the epidemic may come to an end. One of the most important probems in epidemiology is to ascertain whether this termination occurs only when no susceptible individuals are left, or whether the interplay of the various factors of infectivity, recovery and mortality, may result in termination, whilst many susceptible individuals are still present in the unaffected population. It is difficult to treat this problem in its most general aspect. In the present communication discussion will be limited to the case in which all members of the community are initially equally susceptible to the disease, and it will be further assumed that complete immunity is conferred by a single infection.

7,769 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
04 May 1984-Science
TL;DR: A cell system was developed for the reproducible detection of human T-lymphotropic retroviruses (HTLV family) from patients with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or with signs or symptoms that frequently precede AIDS (pre-AIDS), and it provides large amounts of virus for detailed molecular and immunological analyses.
Abstract: A cell system was developed for the reproducible detection of human T-lymphotropic retroviruses (HTLV family) from patients with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or with signs or symptoms that frequently precede AIDS (pre-AIDS). The cells are specific clones from a permissive human neoplastic T-cell line. Some of the clones permanently grow and continuously produce large amounts of virus after infection with cytopathic (HTLV-III) variants of these viruses. One cytopathic effect of HTLV-III in this system is the arrangement of multiple nuclei in a characteristic ring formation in giant cells of the infected T-cell population. These structures can be used as an indicator to detect HTLV-III in clinical specimens. This system opens the way to the routine detection of HTLV-III and related cytopathic variants of HTLV in patients with AIDS or pre-AIDS and in healthy carriers, and it provides large amounts of virus for detailed molecular and immunological analyses.

3,383 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
02 Aug 1979-Nature
TL;DR: Consideration is given to the relation between the ecology and evolution of the transmission processes and the overall dynamics, and to the mechanisms that can produce cyclic patterns, or multiple stable states, in the levels of infection in the host population.
Abstract: If the host population is taken to be a dynamic variable (rather than constant, as conventionally assumed), a wider understanding of the population biology of infectious diseases emerges. In this first part of a two-part article, mathematical models are developed, shown to fit data from laboratory experiments, and used to explore the evolutionary relations among transmission parameters. In the second part of the article, to be published in next week's issue, the models are extended to include indirectly transmitted infections, and the general implications for infectious diseases are considered.

2,652 citations

BookDOI
01 Jan 1982
TL;DR: When you read more every page of this population biology of infectious diseases, what you will obtain is something great.
Abstract: Read more and get great! That's what the book enPDFd population biology of infectious diseases will give for every reader to read this book. This is an on-line book provided in this website. Even this book becomes a choice of someone to read, many in the world also loves it so much. As what we talk, when you read more every page of this population biology of infectious diseases, what you will obtain is something great.

1,620 citations