scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Journal Article•DOI•

Voter Preferences and State Regulation of Smoking

Joni Hersch1, Alison F. Del Rossi2, W. Kip Viscusi1•
Harvard University1, Lawrence University2
27 Oct 2003-Social Science Research Network-
TL;DR: This article found that voters' preferences for smoking restrictions in restaurants, bars, malls, indoor sporting events, and hospitals are consistent with state-level restrictions on smoking in each of these public areas.
Abstract: Voters' preferences for smoking restrictions in restaurants, bars, malls, indoor sporting events, and hospitals are consistent with state-level restrictions on smoking in each of these public areas. This analysis is based on constructed measures of political pressure that take into account both individual preferences and voting behavior. Although smokers are less likely to vote than nonsmokers, their lower voting rate does not substantially influence the probability that a state has a restriction. Other factors, such as tobacco's role in the state economy and state income, are rarely influential.

Summary (2 min read)

Jump to: [1. Introduction] – [2. Theoretical framework] – [3. Individual Preferences for Smoking Regulations and Voting Rates] – [5. Simulations and Predictions] and [6. Conclusion]

1. Introduction

  • Tobacco taxation and smoking restrictions are two areas of regulation for which states have maintained a high level of control relative to the federal government.
  • There are numerous local laws imposing smoking restrictions.
  • The specific building block of their analysis of state restrictions on smoking is information on individuals’ voting behavior, which the authors link to their smoking status and preferences over smoking restrictions.
  • The EPA’s meta-analysis found a 19 percent increase in lung cancer risk to non-smokers from exposure to ETS, significant at the 90 percent level, which translates into 3000 deaths per year.
  • The authors analysis of the determinants of state restrictions uses an innovative measure of voter preferences.

2. Theoretical framework

  • A model of the relation between voter preferences and regulation serves as the framework for their analysis.
  • States established various regulations at different points of time, and an alternative approach might be to examine the influence of factors measured at the time the specific policy was adopted.
  • The median voters in all states preferred allowing smoking in some areas for bars, and they all preferred no smoking at all for hospitals, indoor sporting events, and malls.
  • With a greater number of not considering narrowly defined smoking referenda, so that the legislator must form a probabilistic assessment of voters’ expected preferences with respect to any type of policy.

3. Individual Preferences for Smoking Regulations and Voting Rates

  • Which are used to construct the measures of voter pressure for regulation.the authors.
  • In order to match the same individual across surveys the authors use information on household identifier, individual-specific identifier, and household number.
  • Attitudes regarding smoking in public areas add little explanatory power to the voter equation, although two of the attitudes measures have statistically significant coefficients.
  • Data on state smoking restrictions are reported in the “State Tobacco Activities Tracking and Evaluation System,” which is an on-line source of current and historical information on state tobacco control laws and other economic and behavioral information on smoking and other tobacco use in states.
  • The predicted voter pressure index is positively and significantly related to the degree of restrictions, but the actual voter pressure is not significantly related to the degree of restrictions at conventional levels.

5. Simulations and Predictions

  • Consider the values for the state of New York, which engaged in a highly visible debate over smoking correlations among smoking rate, median income, and percent tobacco are as follows: smoking rate and median income, -0.34; smoking rate and percent tobacco, 0.28, and median income and percent tobacco, -0.04.
  • Many political observers credit this result to intense lobbying by public health professionals and interest groups like the American Cancer Society.
  • Consistent with their empirical results, much controversy has arisen about the New York smoking ban for bars since its enactment, to the point that a lawsuit to stop the ban has been filed by bar and tavern owners and an industry association.
  • Smokers controlled such policies, there would be fewer restrictions on smoking in these places.

6. Conclusion

  • There have been remarkable changes in the public’s support for smoking restrictions.
  • Evans, Williams N., Matthew C. Farrelly, and Edward Montgomery.
  • Table reports probit coefficients with standard errors in parentheses.

Did you find this useful? Give us your feedback

Figures (4)

Content maybe subject to copyright    Report

This work was originally published as: Joni Hersch, Alison F. Del Rossi, and W.
Kip Viscusi, Voter Preferences and State Regulation of Smoking - 42 Economic
Inquiry 455 (2004).
1
VOTER PREFERENCES AND STATE REGULATION OF SMOKING
by
Joni Hersch,
a
Alison F. Del Rossi,
b
and
W. Kip Viscusi
c
JEL Classification: H70, I18, K32
August 22, 2003
Forthcoming Economic Inquiry
a. Harvard Law School, Cambridge, MA 02138; jhersch@law.harvard.edu
.
b. Department of Economics, St. Lawrence University, Canton, NY 13617;
adelrossi@stlawu.edu
.
c. Harvard Law School, Cambridge, MA 02138; kip@law.harvard.edu
. Viscusi’s research is
supported by the Harvard Olin Center for Law, Economics, and Business.
VOTER PREFERENCES AND STATE REGULATION OF SMOKING
ABSTRACT
Voters’ preferences for smoking restrictions in restaurants, bars, malls, indoor sporting events, and
hospitals are consistent with state-level restrictions on smoking in each of these public areas. This
analysis is based on constructed measures of political pressure that take into account both individual
preferences and voting behavior. Although smokers are less likely to vote than nonsmokers, their
lower voting rate does not substantially influence the probability that a state has a restriction. Other
factors, such as tobacco’s role in the state economy and state income, are rarely influential.
1. Introduction
Tobacco taxation and smoking restrictions are two areas of regulation for which states have
maintained a high level of control relative to the federal government.
1
Given this flexibility, states
have established a wide range of restrictions on smoking in areas such as government workplaces,
restaurants, bars, shopping malls, indoor arenas, and hospitals.
2
While most states restrict smoking
in hospitals, there is considerable variation among states in restrictions in other areas. In the 1998-
1999 period of this study, about two-thirds of states restricted smoking in restaurants, while only
four states restricted smoking in bars.
What has led to variation in smoking restrictions across states? In a democratic society one
would expect voter preferences to play an instrumental role in determining which policies are
enacted and which are not. This paper provides the first empirical exploration of whether state-
level smoking restrictions are consistent with preferences of the citizenry, taking into account
both voting behavior and the role of smoking status in influencing whether an individual votes.
Specifically, we examine whether voters’ preferences for smoking restrictions in restaurants, bars,
malls, indoor sporting events, and hospitals are consistent with state-level restrictions on smoking in
each of these public areas.
3
Our research draws on public choice models of policymaking by state
1
Federal involvement in tobacco regulation has been isolated to a few areas. It has had a primary role in
investigating and reporting the health consequences of tobacco use and in establishing restrictions on advertising and
labeling requirements. Congress has also passed laws specifying restrictions on smoking on domestic flights and in
facilities that serve children and receive federal funding. If states do not institute certain laws and enforce those
laws to decrease smoking and tobacco use among minors, they face significant reductions in the Substance Abuse
Prevention and Treatment block grant. See <http://www.samhsa.gov/csap/SYNAR/sydex.htm
> for details.
2
There are numerous local laws imposing smoking restrictions. Local laws that are perceived as successful can lead
to widespread adoption, and economic interests may also be influential. Once local laws are enacted, affected
enterprises may press for state regulation to avoid losing patrons to nearby cities. See “Smoke-Free, Statewide,”
Boston Globe, May 11, 2003, p. 10. On the other hand, seventeen states have some level of preemption of local
indoor smoking laws, which forbids lower-level jurisdictions from passing laws more stringent than those set at the
state level or simply forbids any different local laws. We address only state level restrictions in this paper, leaving
for future research the important question of interactions between state and local restrictions.
3
Studies that have examined the political economy of other types of smoking policies include Hunter and Nelson
(1992), Besley and Rosen (1998), and Nelson (2002), who empirically investigate the determinants of cigarette tax
rates. Jacobson et al. (1993) examine the evolution of anti-smoking legislation using six states as case studies.
1
and local governments. Voters’ preferences typically play a central role, as voting affects
legislators’ incentives to support regulations.
4
Public choice research also finds that non-voter
factors may influence state and local policy making.
5
In the case of smoking regulations, public
health advocates or tobacco industry lobbyists might influence regulatory policies.
The specific building block of our analysis of state restrictions on smoking is information on
individuals’ voting behavior, which we link to their smoking status and preferences over smoking
restrictions. Our analysis uses measures of political pressure that account for individual
preferences as well as their voting behavior. To examine the possible role of interest group
pressures, we also control for non-voter influences on smoking regulation, including the
proportion of the state population who smoke, measures of state ideology, and size of the tobacco
industry.
With the exception of smoking in bars, there is majority support for smoking restrictions.
Unsurprisingly, smokers are less supportive of restrictions than are nonsmokers. Nonetheless,
even smokers demonstrate a high level of support for many restrictions. Smokers are also less
likely to vote than are nonsmokers, even after controlling for other demographic factors. The
lower voting rate diminishes voter opposition to antismoking regulation, but is usually not
critical in view of the substantial support that most smoking restrictions have among smokers.
The political pressure indices for restrictions on smoking in each public area are generally
significantly related to the probability that a state restricts smoking in that public area. The non-
4
See Inman (1987) for an overview of political economy models of policy making.
5
Stigler (1971), Peltzman (1976), and Becker (1983) have modeled the role of political pressures from interest groups.
In many empirical studies, non-voter variables add explanatory power to the determination of public spending.
Ahmed and Greene (2000) find interest group models perform about as well as median voter models in explaining
local spending in New York state counties. Congleton and Bennett (1995) find support for both median voter and
special interest models in the determination of state highway expenditures. Stanton and Whitehead (1994) find
intergovernmental relations, state wealth, special interests, and other political variables are important determinants
of states’ air and water pollution control expenditures. Case et al. (1993) find a significant positive impact of
neighboring states’ spending on a state’s chosen funding.
2
References
More filters
Book•
The Theory of Economic Regulation

[...]

George J. Stigler
01 Jan 1971
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that regulation is acquired by the industry and is designed and operated primarily for its benefit, and that the state has one basic resource which in pure principle is not shared with even the mightiest of its citizens.
Abstract: The state—the machinery and power of the state—is a potential resource or threat to every industry in the society. With its power to prohibit or compel, to take or give money, the state can and does selectively help or hurt a vast number of industries. Regulation may be actively sought by an industry, or it may be thrust upon it. A central thesis of this paper is that, as a rule, regulation is acquired by the industry and is designed and operated primarily for its benefit. The state has one basic resource which in pure principle is not shared with even the mightiest of its citizens: the power to coerce. The state can seize money by the only method which is permitted by the laws of a civilized society, by taxation. The state can ordain the physical movements of resources and the economic decisions of households and firms without their consent.

7,956 citations

Posted Content•
Toward a More General Theory of Regulation

[...]

Sam Peltzman1, Sam Peltzman2•
University of Chicago1, National Bureau of Economic Research2
01 Apr 1976-Social Science Research Network
TL;DR: This article showed that the costs of using the political process limit not only the size of the dominant group but also their gains, which is at one level, a detail which is the way Stigler treated it, but a detail with some important implications for entry into regulation and for the price-output structure that emerges from regulation.
Abstract: In previous literature, George Stigler asserts a law of diminishing returns to group size in politics: Beyond some point it becomes counterproductive to dilute the per capita transfer. Since the total transfer is endogenous, there is a corollary that dirninishing returns apply to the transfer as well, due both to the opposition provoked by the transfer and to the demand this opposition exerts on resources to quiet it. Stigler does not himself formalize this model, and my first task will be to do just this. My simplified formal version of his model produces a result to which Stigler gave only passing recognition, namely that the costs of using the political process limit not only the size of the dominant group but also their gains. This is at one level, a detail, which is the way Stigler treated it, but a detail with some important implications -- for entry into regulation, and for the price-output structure that emerges from regulation. The main task of the paper is to derive these implications from a generalization of Stigler's model.

745 citations

Posted Content•
Vertical Externalities in Tax Setting: Evidence from Gasoline and Cigarettes

[...]

Timothy Besley1, Timothy Besley2, Timothy Besley3, Harvey S. Rosen4, Harvey S. Rosen5, Harvey S. Rosen2 •
London School of Economics and Political Science1, National Bureau of Economic Research2, Economic Policy Institute3, Princeton University4, Center for Economic Studies5
01 Mar 1999-Social Science Research Network
TL;DR: In this article, the authors put forward a theoretical analysis of the effect of federal tax increases on state taxes and found that when the federal government increases taxes, there is a significant positive response of state taxes.
Abstract: A common feature of federal systems is that tax bases are joint property. Consequently, state and federal tax setting decisions are interdependent. Our aim here is to put forward a rudimentary theoretical analysis of this phenomenon, and to use the theory as a framework for econometrically estimating the magnitude of the responses. We find that when the federal government increases taxes, there is a significant positive response of state taxes. For example, a 10-cent per gallon increase in the federal tax rate on gasoline leads to a 3.2-cent increase in the state tax rate.

187 citations

Book•
Smoke-Filled Rooms: A Postmortem on the Tobacco Deal

[...]

W. Kip Viscusi
01 Jun 2002
TL;DR: Viscusi as discussed by the authors found that smoking does increase medical costs to the states, but these costs are more than financially balanced by the premature mortality of smokers, which reduces their demands on state pension and health programs, so that smoking either pays for itself or generates revenues for the states.
Abstract: The 1998 out-of-court settlements of litigation by the states against the cigarette industry totaled $243 billion, making it the largest payoff ever in our civil justice system. Two key questions drove the lawsuits and the attendant settlement: Do smokers understand the risks of smoking? And does smoking impose net financial costs on the states? With "Smoke-Filled Rooms," W. Kip Viscusi provides unexpected answers to these questions, drawing on an impressive range of data on several topics central to the smoking policy debate. Based on surveys of smokers in the United States and Spain, for instance, he demonstrates that smokers actually "overestimate" the dangers of smoking, indicating that they are well aware of the risks involved in their choice to smoke. And while smoking does increase medical costs to the states, Viscusi finds that these costs are more than financially balanced by the premature mortality of smokers, which reduces their demands on state pension and health programs, so that, on average, smoking either pays for itself or generates revenues for the states. Viscusi's eye-opening assessment of the tobacco lawsuits also includes policy recommendations that could frame these debates in a more productive way, such as his suggestion that the FDA should develop a rating system for cigarettes and other tobacco products based on their relative safety, thus providing an incentive for tobacco manufacturers to compete among themselves to produce safer cigarettes. Viscusi's hard look at the facts of smoking and its costs runs against conventional thinking. But it is also necessary for an informed and realistic debate about the legal, financial, and social consequences of the tobacco lawsuits. People making $50,000 or more pay .08 percent of their income in cigarette taxes, but people with incomes of less than $10,000 pay 1.62 percenttwenty times as much. The maintenance crew at the Capitol will bear more of the "sin tax" levied on cigarettes than will members of Congress who voted to boost it. Cigarettes are not a financial drain to the U.S. In fact, they are self-financing, as a consequence of smokers' premature mortality. The general public estimates that 47 out of 100 smokers will die from lung cancer because they smoke. Smokers believe that 40 out of 100 will die of the disease. Scientists estimate the actual number of 100 smokers who will die from lung cancer to be between 7 and 13.

75 citations

Posted Content•
Using Excise Taxes to Finance State Government: Do Neighboring State Taxation Policy and Cross-Border Markets Matter?

[...]

Michael A. Nelson1•
University of Akron1
17 Feb 2003-Social Science Research Network
TL;DR: In this article, the tax policy of U.S. state governments is analyzed with special attention to how this policy is influenced by the level of excise taxation in neighboring states, "border-tax effects," and the relative size of the market located across state boundaries.
Abstract: In this paper the excise tax policy of U.S. state governments is analyzed with special attention to how this policy is influenced by the level of excise taxation in neighboring states, "border-tax effects," and the relative size of the market located across state boundaries. Using a panel data set, state policies towards the taxation of cigarettes, all alcoholic beverages, beer, distilled liquor, motor fuel, and insurance are investigated within the context of a vote-maximizing model of collective decision making. The role of the industry in that state whose goods and services are singled out for special taxation is also examined.

44 citations

Related Papers (5)
Voter Preferences and State Regulation of Smoking

[...]

01 Jul 2004-Economic Inquiry
Joni Hersch, Alison F. Del Rossi, W. Kip Viscusi
An empirical investigation of heterogeneity in time preferences and smoking behaviors

[...]

01 Oct 2009-Journal of Socio-economics
Michel Grignon
Human Capital and Voting Behavior across Generations: Evidence from an Income Intervention

[...]

01 May 2020-American Political Science Review
Randall Akee, William E. Copeland, John B. Holbein, Emilia Simeonova 
Attitudes to public expenditure and their relationship to voting preferences

[...]

01 Jun 1980-Political Studies
Alan Lewis
Smoking Cessation: A Model of Planned vs. Actual Behavior for Time-Inconsistent Consumers

[...]

01 Nov 2007-Marketing Science
Fernando S. Machado, Rajiv K. Sinha
Frequently Asked Questions (2)
Q1. What are the future works in this paper?

The gap between voter support for smoking restrictions and the presence of such policies within a state suggests that state restrictions are likely to become more widespread in the future. 

In this paper, the authors examine whether voters ' preferences for smoking restrictions in restaurants, bars, malls, indoor sporting events, and hospitals are consistent with state-level restrictions on smoking in each of these public areas. 

Trending Questions (1)
Where do smokers prefer to smoke?

Smokers do not prefer smoking restrictions in restaurants or bars; most states have limited or no smoking restrictions, except for hospitals where restrictions vary considerably.

See answers from 5 other papers