What Determines Productivity
Summary (7 min read)
1. Introduction
- T hanks to the massive infusion of detailed production activity data into economic study over the past couple of decades, researchers in many fields have learned a great deal about how firms turn inputs into outputs.
- Productivity, the efficiency with which this conversion occurs, has been a topic of particular interest.
- The particulars of these studies have varied depending on the researchers' specific interests, but there is a common thread.
- The range's standard deviation across four-digit industries is 0.173, so several industries see much larger productivity differences among their producers.
1.2 The Question of "Why?"
- Given the important role that productivity differences play in these disparate literatures, the facts above raise obvious and crucial questions.
- But we've also learned more about what the authors don't know, and this is guiding the ways in which the productivity literature will be moving.
- Furthermore, for obvious reasons, I will focus on research that has been done since Bartelsman and Doms (2000) was written.
- These are elements of businesses' external environments that can affect productivity levels.
- This section briefly reviews what productivity is conceptually, how it is measured in practice, and how productivity differences among producers of similar goods might be supported in equilibrium.
2.1 Productivity in Concept
- Simply put, productivity is efficiency in production: how much output is obtained from a given set of inputs.
- Labor productivity is the most common measure of this type, though occasionally capital or even materials productivity measures are used.
- Because of this, researchers often use a productivity concept that is invariant to the intensity of use of observable factor inputs.
- Higher-TFP producers will produce greater amounts of output with the same set of observable inputs than lower-TFP businesses and, hence, have isoquants that are shifted up and to the right.
- The literature has made progress when it can explain systematic influences on output across production units that do not come from changes in observable inputs like standard labor or capital measures.
2.2 Measuring Productivity
- While productivity is relatively straightforward in concept, a host of measurement issues arise when constructing productivity measures from actual production data.
- In that case, producers' measured productivity levels may reflect less about how efficient they are and more about the state of their local output market.
- Capital is typically measured using the establishment or firm's book value of its capital stock.
- On top of all these considerations, one makes these input measurement choices in the context of knowing that any output driven by unmeasured input variations (due to input quality differences or intangible capital, for example) will show up as productivity.
- The input index in the TFP denominator can be constructed similarly for general production functions.
2.3 A Model of Within-Industry Productivity Dispersion
- The ubiquity of this dispersion suggests there must be some real economic force at work, rather than it simply being an artifact of measurement or odd chance.
- In a heterogeneous-cost Cournot oligopoly, D will contain the parameters of the industry demand curve and the productivity levels of the industry's producers, as these are sufficient to determine the Nash equilibrium outputs and therefore revenues of each producer i.
- The assumptions on the shape of R imply that, given the industry state D, each producer has a unique optimal employment level L i * that is increasing in its productivity level.
- Increases in the average productivity level across plants (coming from parameter changes that increase A) will thus expectedly translate into higher aggregate industry productivity-the ratio of total industry output to total industry inputs.
- Further, even this simple structure hints at how the dynamics of reallocation-a focus of some of the literature discussed below-might work.
3. Productivity and the Plant or Firm
- This section discusses factors that directly impact productivity at the micro level by operating within the plant or firm.
- They are akin to forces that would allow firms in the model of the previous section to raise their A i draw, though most likely at a cost.
- I have broken up the discussion of direct productivity impacts by category for the sake of exposition.
- It's good to keep in mind that some forces can overlap these categories, and multiple mechanisms can act in concert.
- I will point out many of these acrosscategory links as the discussion goes along.
3.1 Managerial Practice/Talent
- Researchers have long proposed that managers drive productivity differences.
- They and their team surveyed managers from over 700 mediumsized firms in the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany.
- Importantly, therefore, Bloom and Van Reenen document that higher-quality management practices (and higher scores) are correlated with several measures of productivity and firm performance, including labor productivity, TFP, return on capital, Tobin's Q, sales growth, and the probability of survival.
- These papers have elucidated some interesting details about the productivity effects of these practices.
- This study could go a long way toward establishing whether or not a causal link exists.
3.2 Higher-Quality General Labor and Capital Inputs
- Management is an unmeasured input in most production functions, and hence is embodied in the productivity measure.
- Newer work using matched employeremployee datasets, which allow individual workers to be tracked across plants or firms over time, has offered evidence on the importance of labor quality.
- Capital can also vary in quality in ways not captured with standard measures.
- This seems to be an area desperate for further evidence, given its potential importance.
- Interestingly, his estimates of each technology's parameters suggest that capital-augmenting productivity is the primary driver of labor productivity growth under lean processes, while Hicks-neutral TFPtype productivity drives growth in the traditional technology plants.
3.3 Information Technology and R&D
- While the research described above indicates that input heterogeneity matters, the productivity effects of a particular type of capital-information technology (IT)-have been the subject of intense study.
- These studies document that IT-related productivity gains-both spectacular productivity growth in IT-producing industries and more modest changes in IT-using industries-play an important role in explaining aggregate U.S. productivity growth over the past couple of decades.
- They link their management practices data discussed above to data on IT usage to test for particular mechanisms through which this productivity advantage arises.
- A new technology's net productivity benefit to the adopter depends on the difference between the increased production the new technology facilitates and its acquisition cost.
- There are many reasons why more productive firms might do more R&D, suggesting that some of the causation may go the other way.
3.5 Product Innovation
- Innovations in product quality may not necessarily raise the quantity of output (measured in some physical unit) per unit input, but they can increase the product price and, therefore, the firm's revenue per unit input.
- This is captured in standard revenue-based productivity measures since they reflect price variations across an industry's plants or firms.
- About one-third of this comes from entry and exit channels.
- Nevertheless, given the breadth of the study's coverage and its result that correlations exist, more research in this area would be worthwhile.
- At the very least, these results indicate that productivity growth accompanies expansion of the variety of products a firm offers.
3.6 Firm Structure Decisions
- A lot of the micro productivity literature uses the establishment (e.g., factory, store, or office) as the unit of analysis.
- Silke J. Forbes and Mara Lederman (2011) look at how vertical integration affects airline performance.
- They find that vertically integrated plants have higher productivity levels than their nonintegrated industry cohorts, but most of this difference reflects selection of high-productivity plants into vertical structures rather than a causal impact of integration on productivity.
- Their work was spurred on in part by the extensive finance literature on the "diversification discount," the term for the oft-measured negative correlation between a firm's financial returns and the number of business lines it operates.
- They support their efficient allocation argument by showing that conglomerate firms' most productive plants are in their largest segments, and segments of a given rank are more productive in larger firms.
4. External Drivers of Productivity Differences
- The previous section discussed factors that operate within the firm to determine productivity levels.
- This section focuses instead on how producers' operating environments can influence productivity levels and growth.
- While distinct in theory and empirical implementation from the accounting decompositions, such "gap methods" have the same conceptual goal: to separately measure how much aggregate productivity growth comes from businesses becoming more efficient themselves and how much comes from reallocation of economic activity to more efficient producers.
- Holmes, Levine, and Schmitz suppose that adopting a productivity-enhancing practice involves disruption costs: a temporary period where costs are actually higher than before any technological change was made.
- Elements of a firm's market environment can affect the firm's incentives to chase that moving target.
4.1 Productivity Spillovers
- Producer practices can have spillover effects on the productivity levels of other firms.
- Higher productivity correlations among "nearby" producers are predicted by many theories of spillovers.
- On the other hand, the ubiquity of large and persistent productivity differences within industries suggests that any such emulation/spillover process is far from perfect.
- The crucial research questions of these studies, then, are the size of knowledge transfers, what features influence this size, and the channels through which the spillovers operate.
- Bloom, Schankerman, and Van Reenen (2007) point out that spillovers can cut two ways: technological spillovers can benefit everyone, but there can also be market-stealing effects on the product market side.
4.2 Competition
- Pressures from threatened or actual competitors can affect productivity levels within an industry.
- Competition drives productivity through two key mechanisms; this section discusses examples of research into both.
- The first is Darwinian selection among producers with heterogeneous productivity levels.
- It also raises the productivity bar that any potential entrant must meet to successfully enter.
4.2.1 Intramarket Competition
- A general indicator that product-market competition is enhancing productivity is a positive correlation between productivity and producer growth and survival.
- Syverson (2004a) investigates the connection between competition and productivity in a case study of the ready-mixed concrete industry, which is well suited for this type of investigation.
- Differences in competitiveness across markets should therefore be related to the density of concrete producers in the market.
- He follows U.S. iron ore mining during the period the industry was first facing competition from foreign producers.
- The industry's average labor productivity had been roughly constant at two tons of ore per worker-hour for several decades preceding 1980.
4.2.2 Trade Competition
- As seen in Schmitz's results for the iron ore industry, the presence-or even just the threat-of imports from abroad is another form of competitive pressure.
- The paper demonstrates that sectors facing new import competition saw faster productivity growth over her 1979-86 sample period than sectors producing primarily nontradables.
- Multiple studies using producer microdata have found comparable results in other settings.
- That is, exporters are almost inevitably more productive than their nonexporting industry counterparts, but most studies have found that this correlation largely reflects selection rather than a causal impact of exporting on productivity.
4.3 Deregulation or Proper Regulation
- Poorly regulated markets can create perverse incentives that reduce productivity.
- Farmers received a flat payment per ton of sugar contained in their beets, so their optimal response was to simply grow the largest beets possible.
- Beyond these case studies, recent work has also taken a broader look at how product market regulations impact productivity at the micro level.
- They document broad-based productivity growth in plants after privatization but they also find considerable variation in the size of the impacts across countries, with more than 15 percent average TFP growth in Romania but a slightly negative impact in Russia.
4.4 Flexible Input Markets
- I discussed above how competition increases productivity.
- If one thinks of competition as flexibility in product marketsin more competitive markets, it's easier for consumers to shift their purchases from one producer to another-it is logical to suppose that flexible input markets might also raise productivity levels.
- Such gaps can be caused by any one of a number of market distortions, like market power, taxes, or the firing costs that are the object of the study.
- Efficiency increases if labor inputs are moved from low-to high-gap plants because the net change in marginal product caused by the input shift outstrips the change in wage costs.
- Their model indicates that in the absence of distortions, plants' revenue-based TFP levels (TFP measured using revenues as an output measure rather than quantities) should be equal.
5. Big Questions
- That is a brief summary of what the authors know about the causes of productivity differences at the micro level and why they would want to know these causes.
- I want to emphasize that while the discussion draws out major themes of that body of knowledge, it really only just scratches the surface of the literature.
- I think a fair reading of the discussion above would say that the authors have learned a lot about productivity since the Bartelsman and Doms (2000) survey.
- Many pressing issues and open questions remain.
- I will briefly lay out what I see to be the major questions about productivity that the research agenda should address.
5.1 What Is the Importance of Demand?
- But productivity as actually measured in producer microdata generally reflects more than just supply-side forces.
- Because producer-specific prices are unobserved in most businesslevel microdata, output is typically measured by revenue divided by an industry-level deflator.
- A new strand of research has begun to extend the productivity literature to explicitly account for such idiosyncratic demand effects as well.
- The work to this point indicates that demand factors are indeed important.
- The scope of issues that this new line of research has addressed is still small, however.
5.2 What Is the Role of (or Hope for)
- Clearly, many of the productivity drivers discussed above can be influenced by government policies.
- Several policy-related questions are prime targets for research.
- Research has typically compared the effects of policy reforms to a null of no reform, but perhaps an equally important comparison is among possible reform alternatives.
- There could be economic reasons for this.
5.3 Which Productivity Drivers Matter
- The research described above has framed which factors might explain variation in productivity levels.
- The relative quantitative importance of each, however, is still unclear.
- Of course, it's quite likely that the quantitative impact of factors varies across industries or markets.
- Research that ties observable attributes of the industry's technology or demand structure to the quantitative importance of productivity-influencing factors would be an incredible advance in their ability to explain productivity growth.
5.4 What Factors Determine Whether
- In many settings above, there was a prominent distinction between aggregate productivity growth coming from "within" (productivity growth at a given plant or firm) and "between" (reallocation-based selection across existing businesses or entry and exit) sources.
- Aggregate productivity growth in the retail sector seems to be almost exclusively from reallocation, at least in the United States.
- But of course the literature has covered nowhere near the full span of sectors and economies.
- More importantly, the authors do not yet have a good model of what sectoral features (again on either the supply or demand side) might determine the relative importance of each.
- Answering questions like this would go a long way to developing their understanding of how micro productivity differences drive the aggregate productivity movements.
5.5 What Is the Role of Misallocation as a Source of Variation in Emerging
- Productivity differences explain much of the per capita income variation across countries.
- On the other hand, the result also has discouraging elements.
- While research has identified misallocation as a source of the problem, it hasn't really pinned down exactly what distortions create gaps between the social marginal benefits and costs of inputs across production units.
- It is hard to implement policies that close these gaps and the variation between them (i.e., reallocate inputs more efficiently) without knowing the nature of the gaps in the first place.
- That said, there has been some early progress on this front.
5.6 What Is the Importance of Higher
- Some of the work above, particularly that focusing on the role of IT capital, suggests that the variance of productivity outcomes might be increasing at a very broad level.
- The value of this option increases with a mean-preserving spread in outcomes.
- There is some evidence that this is happening, but the literature has yet to show this definitively.
- Historical evidence would be very informative here.
5.7 Can We Predict Innovation Based on Market Conditions?
- Here I speak of innovation broadlyproduct and process innovation, measured or unmeasured by formal R&D numbers.
- This question is in some ways a corollary to the one above about quantifying and predicting the split between within-producer and between-producer productivity growth.
5.8 The Nature of Intangible Capital
- Many of the primary drivers of productivity naturally create persistence in productivity levels at plants and firms.
- Understanding how such intangible capital stocks are built and sustained would shed light on many productivity-related issues for this reason.
- Such insights would also speak toward active literatures on the subject in macroeconomics and finance.
5.9 Management Versus Managers
- Understanding these issues might also help to pin down the causal nature of management practices.
- If good management practices reflect in large part the fact that they are what good managers do, then the causal impact might be limited.
5.10 A Plea for Data
- Data availability is not a research question, but it is crucial for answering the questions posed above.
- Virtually everything discussed in this survey the authors now know because detailed data on production practices was available.
- But many of these datasets were originally collected by statistical agencies for the purpose of constructing aggregates.
- Their ability to offer insights into what happens at the micro level was in many ways a happy externality.
- Now that the authors know the value of the knowledge that such information can generate, economists should push for more directed efforts to measure business-level production practices.
6. Conclusion
- The research into the productivity differences across businesses has come a long way since Bartelsman and Doms (2000) surveyed the literature a decade ago.
- The authors know more about what causes the measured differences in productivity, and how factors both internal and external to the plant or firm shape the distribution.
- These insights have been applied to research questions in numerous fields.
- Fortunately, I see no sign that the rate at which researchers accumulate knowledge in this area is slowing.
- I am excited to see what the next several years bring in this research agenda, as the content of the next decade's survey unfolds.
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Frequently Asked Questions (7)
Q2. What future works have the authors mentioned in the paper "What determines productivity?" ?
The authors know more about what causes the measured differences in productivity, and how factors both internal and external to the plant or firm shape the distribution. These insights have been applied to research questions in numerous fields.
Q3. What are the dominant conceptual lenses through which economists view trade impacts?
Theoretical frameworks using heterogeneousproductivity firms like Jonathan Eaton and Samuel Kortum (2002) and Marc J. Melitz (2003) are now the dominant conceptual lenses through which economists view trade impacts.
Q4. What is the potential selection bias when a panel is used?
There is also potential selection bias when a panel is used, since less efficient producers—those with low ωt—are more likely to exit from the sample.
Q5. What is the implication of equal revenue TFP across plants?
Their model’s implication of equal revenue TFP across plants stems from the standard efficiency condition that inputs’ marginal revenue products are equated across all uses, and the fact that marginal products are proportional to average products for a Cobb–Douglas production function without fixed costs.
Q6. What does she show that when a conglomerate diversifies, the plants it buys?
She shows that when a conglomerate diversifies, the plants it buys actually experience productivity growth, suggesting that they are in fact being reallocated to more capable management (there will be more on the reallocation of productive inputs below).
Q7. How much of the knowledge stock depreciates each year?
Forgetting is quantitatively important in this setting: Benkard estimates that almost 40 percent of the knowledge stock depreciates each year.