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Will COVID-19 pandemic diminish by summer-monsoon in India? Lesson from the first lockdown

Sarvan Kumar1•
Veer Bahadur Singh Purvanchal University1
25 Apr 2020-medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press)-
TL;DR: It is doubtful that the spread of COVID-19 would slow down in India due to meteorological factors, like high temperature and high humidity, and the role of aerosol in spreading the pandemic across India because its possible airborne nature is investigated.
Abstract: The novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and has created a medical emergency worldwide. It has spread rapidly to multiple countries and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. In India, it is already reported more than 18 thousand cases and more than 600 deaths due to Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) till April 20, 2020. Previous studies on various viral infections like influenza have supported an epidemiological hypothesis that the cold and dry (low absolute humidity) environments favor the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases. These viral transmissions found attenuated in warm and humid (high absolute humidity) environments. However, the role of temperature, humidity, and absolute humidity in the transmission of COVID-19 has not yet been well established. Therefore the study to investigate the meteorological condition for incidence and spread of COVID-19 infection, to predict the epidemiology of the infectious disease, and to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control measures against the new disease is required for India. In this work, we analyze the local weather patterns of the Indian region affected by the COVID-19 virus for March and April months, 2020. We have investigated the effect of meteorological parameters like Temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity on the rate of spread of COVID-19 using daily confirm cases in India. We have used daily averaged meteorological data for the last three years (2017-2019) for March and April month and the same for the year 2020 for March 1 to April 15. We found a positive association (Pearson’s r=0.56) between temperature and daily COVID-19 cases over India. We found a negative association of humidity (RH and AH) with daily COVID-19 Cases (Person’s r=-0.62, -0.37). We have also investigated the role of aerosol in spreading the pandemic across India because it’s possible airborne nature. For this, we have investigated the association of aerosols (AOD) and other pollutions (NO2) with COVID-19 cases during the study period and also during the first lockdown period (25 March-15 April) in India. We found a negative association in March when there were few cases, but in April, it shows positive association when the number of cases is more (for AOD it was r=-0.41 and r=0.28 respectively). During the lockdown period, aerosols (AOD) and other pollutants (NO2; an indicator of PM2.5) reduced sharply with a percentage drop of about 36 and 37, respectively. This reduction may have reduced the risk for COVID-19 through air transmission due to the unavailability of aerosol particles as a base. HYSPLIT forward trajectory model also shows that surface aerosols may travel up to 4 km according to wind and direction within three h of its generation. If coronavirus becomes airborne as suggested by many studies, then it may have a higher risk of transmission by aerosols particles. So relaxing in the lockdown and environmental rules in terms of pollutant emissions from power plants, factories, and other facilities would be a wrong choice and could result in more COVID-19 incidences and deaths in India. Therefore the current study, although limited, suggests that it is doubtful that the spread of COVID-19 would slow down in India due to meteorological factors, like high temperature and high humidity. Because a large number of cases have already been reported in the range of high Tem, high Relative, and high absolute humidity regions of India. Thus our results in no way suggest that COVID-19 would not spread in warm, humid regions or during summer/monsoon. So effective public health interventions should be implemented across India to slow down the transmission of COVID-19. If COVID-19 is indeed sensitive to environmental factors, it could be tested in the coming summer-monsoon for India. So the only summer is not going to help India until monsoon is coming. Only government mitigations strategies would be helpful, whether its lockdown, aggressive and strategic testing, medical facilities, imposing social distancing, encouraging to use face mask or monitoring by a mobile application (Aarogya Setu). Highlights First study on the effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19 cases in India. A positive association between daily new cases of COVID-19 with temperature. RH and AH are negatively associated with daily new cases of COVID-19. Early lockdown in India slows down the spread of contagious disease COVID-19. More than a 35% fall was found in AOD and NO2 values during the lockdown period. Graphical abstract Correlation of daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 with the Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Absolute humidity from 20 March -15 April 2020 for the Indian region.

Summary (3 min read)

Jump to: [1. Introduction:] – [2.2 Weather data:] – [2.3 AOD and Pollutants data:] – [3.1 Variability of COVID-19 cases with the meteorological parameters (temperature,] – [3.2 Is COVID-19 airborne?] – [3.3.1 Association of COVID-19 with AOD:] – [3.3.4 Correlation of AOD with COVID-19 cases:] – [3.4 Trajectory analysis of aerosols emitted at surface level :] – [3.5 Implications for preventing future transmission of 2019-nCoV:] and [4. Conclusions:]

1. Introduction:

  • At the beginning of April, thousands of new cases have been documented in regions with Tem >18 C, suggesting that the role of warmer temperature in slowing the spread of the COVID-19, as suggested earlier, might only be observed, at much higher temperatures.
  • Since 30 January 2020, after the first case was reported in India, the increasing number of cases caused by COVID-19 had been identified until February.
  • Bu et al., (2020) found from a global perspective, cities with a mean temperature below 24 °C are all high-risk cities for 2019-nCoV transmission before June.

2.2 Weather data:

  • The meteorological parameters during the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in India for 2020 and three year past data were collected and analyzed.
  • Air temperature and relative humidity data were taken from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard EOS Aqua.
  • Daily Data were taken for the surface temperature and surface relative humidity for the Indian region with resolution 1 degree for days March 1 to April 15, 2020, and for 2017-2019 from 1 March to 30 April.

2.3 AOD and Pollutants data:

  • Aerosols optical depth (AOD) and NO2 data were taken from GIOVANNI NASA (https://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov/giovanni/) sites from MODIS and OMI satellites.
  • MODIS provides daily AOD data with the 1-degree resolution, which the authors used for the Indian region, and OMI also provides daily data with resolution 0.25 degrees.
  • More details about MODIS data can be found elsewhere (Kumar et al., 2015).

3.1 Variability of COVID-19 cases with the meteorological parameters (temperature,

  • The authors look into the relation between daily temperature (Tem), Relative humidity (RH), and absolute humidity (AH) with the daily number of confirmed cases of corona patients in India.
  • The authors found that average temp of the last three years during March and April was varying from 24 to 32 oC, where this year Tem was underestimated from the last three years average Temp and varying from 22 to 30oC till 12 April.
  • RH values show the negative association with the daily confirm cases (Fig. 3).
  • The authors results for the Indian case did not match with the hypothesis said above as average temperature for the Indian region for March and April is above 24°C, even the COVID-19 cases are increasing rapidly in India even though restrict lockdown is there.
  • The humidity dependency may be due to the less effective airborne nature of the viruses at higher absolute humidity, thus reducing the overall indirect transmission of 2019-nCoV at higher levels of humidity.

3.2 Is COVID-19 airborne?

  • Many studies suggested that COVID-19 may be stable up to 3 hours on aerosols (van Doremalen et al., 2020) and may be transmitted to long distances in a closed environment (Santarpia et al., 2020) as well as the open environment (Wang and Du, 2020).
  • These studies suggest that COVID-19 may be airborne and can give a high risk of transmission through aerosols.
  • They contain soil particles, industrial dust particles, particulates emitted by automobiles, bacteria, microorganisms, plant spore powders, and other components.
  • When a person who was infected with the virus, coughs, sneezes, breathes vigorously, or speaks loudly, the virus will be excreted from the body.
  • Bio-aerosols ranging in size from 1.0 to 5.0 μm generally remain in the air, whereas larger particles are deposited on surfaces.

3.3.1 Association of COVID-19 with AOD:

  • To prevent further spread of COVID-19, India has started the world’s biggest lockdown of history on 25th March 2020, where the whole country was locked, and more than 1.38 billion people were forced to remain in their homes.
  • The aerosols decrease sharply over India in comparison with the average value of AOD of the last three years (Fig. 5).
  • If a lockdown is followed strictly till May 3, 2020, then a big reduction in AOD may be observed, which may restrict the risk of further new COVID19 cases by its transmission through aerosols.
  • Strict lockdown in India reduces the tropospheric column NO2 also, which again lowers the risk of COVID transmission through PM 2.5 for the Indian region (Fig. 6).
  • It’s very clear from the plot that the concentration of NO2 is reduced after the lockdown in comparison to the threeyear average value of NO2.

3.3.4 Correlation of AOD with COVID-19 cases:

  • The authors have also investigated the correlation of AOD with the daily new confirmed case in India for March and April.
  • The authors found the negative correlation during March when there were fewer cases of COVID-19, but in April, the correlation turned in to positive (Fig. 8) when daily cases are more and which again indicating that possible COVID-19 transmission through the aerosols if it is airborne.

3.4 Trajectory analysis of aerosols emitted at surface level :

  • The authors have used the HYSPLIT trajectory model for calculation of the forward trajectory (not shown here) of surface aerosols.
  • As van Doremalen et al., (2020) found in his study that COVID-19 virus can be stable at aerosols surface for about 3 hours.
  • So if a coronavirus is attached to the aerosols, then it may travel for longer distances and become airborne, this may be a reason for the high number of cases in the USA and other European countries as in earlystage they did consider COVID-19 may not transmit through the air and not using the face mask.
  • Therefore their study suggests that there must be strict lockdown for all factors affecting the concentration of aerosols; otherwise, it may be an invitation to a disaster to give relax in lockdown in India like a country with high aerosols in coming months.

3.5 Implications for preventing future transmission of 2019-nCoV:

  • Before in March 2020, many studies speculated that the places with higher temperatures are in less risk, and it appeared that temperature might play an important role in the spread of the virus.
  • More new cases were recorded in regions with a temperature between 16 and 18oC in March even more up to 30oC in India during March and April 2020, which is now challenging the hypothesis that a rise in temperature would minimize the spread of the 2019- nCoV.
  • Indeed, laboratory experiments performed between 21-23oC at a relative humidity of 40%, showed that the virus survived for several days on plastics and metals (van Doremalen et al., 2020).
  • Under any circumstances, the authors believe that large gatherings (both indoor and outdoor) should be avoided across India.
  • On the other hand, if, new cases in April and May continue to cluster within the current observed range of AH, i.e., 9 to 11 g/m3, then the states experiencing monsoon having a high absolute humidity (>11 g/m 3 ) may see a slowdown in transmissions, due to climatic factors.

4. Conclusions:

  • The novel coronavirus pneumonia is caused by 2019-nCoV, which is a new pathogen for the human being.
  • Also, aerosols may play a crucial role during the spread of COVID-19.
  • The authors have studies the total number of daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 and its association with the temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity over India for March and April 2020.

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Will COVID-19 pandemic diminish by summer-monsoon in India? Lesson
from the first lockdown
Sarvan Kumar*
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Prof. Rajendra Singh (Rajju Bhaiya) Institute of Physical Sciences for Study and Research
Veer Bahadur Singh Purvanchal University
Jaunpur - 222003, Uttar Pradesh, India
*Corresponding author: Dr. Sarvan Kumar (Email: sarvanbhaskar07@gmail.com)
Abstract:
The novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in
December 2019 and has created a medical emergency worldwide. It has spread rapidly to
multiple countries and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. In
India, it is already reported more than 18 thousand cases and more than 600 deaths due to
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) till April 20, 2020. Previous studies on various viral
infections like influenza have supported an epidemiological hypothesis that the cold and dry
(low absolute humidity) environments favor the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral
diseases. These viral transmissions found attenuated in warm and humid (high absolute
humidity) environments. However, the role of temperature, humidity, and absolute humidity
in the transmission of COVID-19 has not yet been well established. Therefore the study to
investigate the meteorological condition for incidence and spread of COVID-19 infection, to
predict the epidemiology of the infectious disease, and to provide a scientific basis for
prevention and control measures against the new disease is required for India. In this work,
we analyze the local weather patterns of the Indian region affected by the COVID-19 virus
for March and April months, 2020. We have investigated the effect of meteorological
parameters like Temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity on the rate of spread
of COVID-19 using daily confirm cases in India. We have used daily averaged
meteorological data for the last three years (2017-2019) for March and April month and the
same for the year 2020 for March 1 to April 15. We found a positive association (Pearson’s
. CC-BY-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted April 28, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.22.20075499doi: medRxiv preprint
NOTE: This preprint reports new research that has not been certified by peer review and should not be used to guide clinical practice.
r=0.56) between temperature and daily COVID-19 cases over India. We found a negative
association of humidity (RH and AH) with daily COVID-19 Cases (Person’s r=-0.62, -0.37).
We have also investigated the role of aerosol in spreading the pandemic across India because
it’s possible airborne nature. For this, we have investigated the association of aerosols (AOD)
and other pollutions (NO
2
) with COVID-19 cases during the study period and also during the
first lockdown period (25 March-15 April) in India. We found a negative association in
March when there were few cases, but in April, it shows positive association when the
number of cases is more (for AOD it was r=-0.41 and r=0.28 respectively). During the
lockdown period, aerosols (AOD) and other pollutants (NO
2
; an indicator of PM
2.5
) reduced
sharply with a percentage drop of about 36 and 37, respectively. This reduction may have
reduced the risk for COVID-19 through air transmission due to the unavailability of aerosol
particles as a base. HYSPLIT forward trajectory model also shows that surface aerosols may
travel up to 4 km according to wind and direction within three h of its generation. If
coronavirus becomes airborne as suggested by many studies, then it may have a higher risk of
transmission by aerosols particles. So relaxing in the lockdown and environmental rules in
terms of pollutant emissions from power plants, factories, and other facilities would be a
wrong choice and could result in more COVID-19 incidences and deaths in India. Therefore
the current study, although limited, suggests that it is doubtful that the spread of COVID-19
would slow down in India due to meteorological factors, like high temperature and high
humidity. Because a large number of cases have already been reported in the range of high
Tem, high Relative, and high absolute humidity regions of India. Thus our results in no way
suggest that COVID-19 would not spread in warm, humid regions or during
summer/monsoon. So effective public health interventions should be implemented across
India to slow down the transmission of COVID-19. If COVID-19 is indeed sensitive to
environmental factors, it could be tested in the coming summer-monsoon for India. So the
only summer is not going to help India until monsoon is coming. Only government
mitigations strategies would be helpful, whether its lockdown, aggressive and strategic
testing, medical facilities, imposing social distancing, encouraging to use face mask or
monitoring by a mobile application (Aarogya Setu).
Keyword: novel Coronavirus; India; Summer; COVID-19; Pandemic; Absolute humidity;
2019-nCoV
. CC-BY-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted April 28, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.22.20075499doi: medRxiv preprint
Highlights:
First study on the effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19 cases in India.
A positive association between daily new cases of COVID-19 with temperature.
RH and AH are negatively associated with daily new cases of COVID-19.
Early lockdown in India slows down the spread of contagious disease COVID-19.
More than a 35% fall was found in AOD and NO
2
values during the lockdown period.
1. Introduction:
The novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in
December 2019 (Bukhari and Jameel, 2020) and caused over 2.46 million cases and over 170
thousand deaths worldwide till date (20 April 2020) (Worldometer). It has spread rapidly to
multiple countries and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on
March 11, 2020 (WHO). In India, it is already reported more than 18 thousand cases and
more than 600 deaths due to Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (COVID/Tracker).
Previous studies have supported an epidemiological hypothesis that cold and dry (low
absolute humidity) environments facilitate the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral
diseases. Warm and humid (high absolute humidity) environments see attenuated viral
transmission like influenza and SARS (Schoeman and Fielding, 2019). As this coronavirus
appeared for the first time and was highly contagious, it poses a great challenge to diagnosis
and prevention and control. Human coronaviruses have been associated with a wide spectrum
of respiratory diseases in different studies and belong to the Coronaviridae family (Bukhari
and Jameel, 2020; Weiss and Navas-Martin, 2005). It has been suggested that flu viruses are
not easily transmitted in hot and humid conditions. Similar comments about the COVID-19
have repeatedly been made by health officials as well as world leaders that the outbreak will
slow down by summer, due to decreased transmissivity (Bukhari and Jameel, 2020). Wang et
al. (2020) also found a similar result in his model study. They suggested that during the coming
summer in the northern hemisphere, the spread of Coronavirus will be reduced in tropical
regions. It is also important to note that SARS-Cov, which is a type of coronavirus, loses its
ability to survive in higher temperatures, which may be due to the breakdown of their lipid
layer at higher temperatures (Schoeman and Fielding, 2019). However, no seasonality has
been established for COVID-19.
. CC-BY-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted April 28, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.22.20075499doi: medRxiv preprint
Bukhari and Jameel (2020) reported that in the beginning none of the Asian, Middle Eastern
and South American countries had implemented drastic quarantine measures such as those in
China, Europe, and some US states, however, their overall growth rate was lower, but now
the rate is much similar to the Europe and USA. He suggested that it could be due to a lower
number of testing, such as in India, Pakistan, Indonesia, and African countries. Many
countries such as Singapore, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Qatar, Taiwan, and Hong Kong
have performed more 2019-nCoV tests per million people than the USA, Italy, and several
European countries. It was suggested that non-testing was not an issue, at least for the
tropical countries.
At the beginning of April, thousands of new cases have been documented in regions with
Tem >18 C, suggesting that the role of warmer temperature in slowing the spread of the
COVID-19, as suggested earlier, might only be observed, at much higher temperatures.
Unlike temperature, most of the COVID-19 cases were reported in the range of AH has
consistently been between 3 and 9 g/m
3
(Bukhari and Jameel, 2020). Bukhari and Jameel,
(2020) also suggested that if, new cases in April and May continue to cluster within the
observed range of AH, i.e., 3 to 9g/m
3
, then the countries experiencing monsoon, i.e., having
high absolute humidity (>10 g/m
3
) may see a slowdown in transmissions, due to climatic
factors. But for India, it is not true as many states having high temperate and high humidity
are still leading in COVID-19 cases in India like Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu (Fig. 1) as for
India, the average AH, is between 8 to 11 g/m
3
during March and April month. A higher
number of cases also reported for Kerala and Uttar Pradesh at the beginning of April, but
government early mitigation strategies controlled the daily new COVID-19 cases.
Since 30 January 2020, after the first case was reported in India, the increasing number of
cases caused by COVID-19 had been identified until February. Up to the second week of
March, only cases which were coming from foreign or in contact with them were reported,
but after 15
th
March, new daily cases appeared with no foreign travel cases. The number
shoots up after 25
th
March when a community of “Tablighi Jamat” in Delhi was reported that
they might have COVID positive cases with at least 2000 people. After this event increasing
number of daily cases continues with new and with those who have contact with these
peoples. Presently this community has 30% cases of COVID-19 on total Indian cases across
the India. On March 25, 2020, India, the residence of more than 1.38 billion humans, was
forced to shut down both outbound and inbound traffic to contain the COVID-19 outbreak.
In addition to population mobility and human-to-human contact, environmental factors can
impact droplet transmission and survival of viruses (e.g., influenza) but have not yet been
. CC-BY-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted April 28, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.22.20075499doi: medRxiv preprint
examined for this novel pathogen for Indian cases. Absolute humidity, defined as the water
content in ambient air, is a strong environmental determinant of other viral transmissions
(Barreca and Shimshack, 2012; Luo et al., 2020). For example, influenza viruses survive
longer on surfaces or in droplets in cold and dry air - increasing the likelihood of subsequent
transmission. Thus, it is key to understand the effects of environmental factors on the ongoing
outbreak to support decision-making about disease control, especially in locations where the
risk of transmission may have been underestimated, such as in humid and warmer locations.
We examine variability in Temperature (Tem), relative humidity (RH), and absolute humidity
(AH) and transmission of COVID-19 across India. We show that the observed patterns of
COVID-19 are not completely consistent with the hypothesis that high AH may limit the
survival and transmission of this new virus.
Bu et al., (2020) found from a global perspective, cities with a mean temperature below 24 °C
are all high-risk cities for 2019-nCoV transmission before June. In our case, it is not true as in
India; the temperature was always high when the COVID-19 growth rate is high. Few studies
supporting the hypothesis that high temp and high humidity will reduce the case like, Wang
et al., (2020) find in their study, under a linear regression framework, high temperature and
high humidity significantly reduces the transmission of COVID-19. They reported that a one-
degree Celsius increase in temperature and a one percent increase in relative humidity lower
R by 0.0225 and 0.0158, respectively. The transmission of coronaviruses can be affected by
several factors, including climate conditions (such as temperature and humidity), population density,
and medical care quality (Wang et al., 2020). Therefore, understanding the relationship between
weather and the transmission of COVID-19 is the key to forecast the intensity and end time of this
pandemic.
The number of 2019-nCoV cases detected in a country/state depends on multiple factors,
including testing, population (density), community structure, social dynamics, governmental
policies, global connectivity, air and surface life, reproduction number, and serial interval of
the virus. Many of this information regarding 2019-nCoV are still emerging, such as the virus
being airborne for more than 3 hours and having very different survival times on metals,
cardboards and plastics (van Doremalen et al., 2020). The behavior of 2019-nCoV with
meteorological parameters and with aerosols is still under investigation and also the subject
of this paper over the Indian region during its spread and during the first lockdown period (25
March-15 April 2020). The analysis presented in this paper provides a direct comparison
between the spread of COVID-19 virus and local environmental conditions over India region
and study the growth rate of COVID-19 among different states of India (Fig.1).
. CC-BY-ND 4.0 International licenseIt is made available under a
is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)
The copyright holder for this preprintthis version posted April 28, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.22.20075499doi: medRxiv preprint
Citations
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Abstract: The most widely used novel coronavirus (COVID-19) detection technique is a real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). However, RT-PCR kits are costly and take 6-9 hours to confirm infection in the patient. Due to less sensitivity of RT-PCR, it provides high false-negative results. To resolve this problem, radiological imaging techniques such as chest X-rays and computed tomography (CT) are used to detect and diagnose COVID-19. In this paper, chest X-rays is preferred over CT scan. The reason behind this is that X-rays machines are available in most of the hospitals. X-rays machines are cheaper than the CT scan machine. Besides this, X-rays has low ionizing radiations than CT scan. COVID-19 reveals some radiological signatures that can be easily detected through chest X-rays. For this, radiologists are required to analyze these signatures. However, it is a time-consuming and error-prone task. Hence, there is a need to automate the analysis of chest X-rays. The automatic analysis of chest X-rays can be done through deep learning-based approaches, which may accelerate the analysis time. These approaches can train the weights of networks on large datasets as well as fine-tuning the weights of pre-trained networks on small datasets. However, these approaches applied to chest X-rays are very limited. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to develop an automated deep transfer learning-based approach for detection of COVID-19 infection in chest X-rays by using the extreme version of the Inception (Xception) model. Extensive comparative analyses show that the proposed model performs significantly better as compared to the existing models.

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10 Jun 2021-Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a rapid review along with a brief bibliometric analysis of 328 research papers, which synthesizes the evidence regarding the environmental concerns of COVID-19.
Abstract: COVID-19 has slowed global economic growth and consequently impacted the environment as well. Parallelly, the environment also influences the transmission of this novel coronavirus through various factors. Every nation deals with varied population density and size; air quality and pollutants; the nature of land and water, which significantly impact the transmission of coronavirus. The WHO (Ziaeepour et al., 2008) [1] has recommended rapid reviews to provide timely evidence to the policymakers to respond to the emergency. The present study follows a rapid review along with a brief bibliometric analysis of 328 research papers, which synthesizes the evidence regarding the environmental concerns of COVID-19. The novel contribution of this rapid review is threefold. One, we take stock of the diverse findings as regards the transmission of the novel coronavirus in different types of environments for providing conclusive directions to the ongoing debate regarding the transmission of the virus. Two, our findings provide topical insights as well as methodological guidance for future researchers in the field. Three, we inform the policymakers on the efficacy of environmental measures for controlling the spread of COVID-19.

41 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Lives or livelihood: Insights from locked-down India due to COVID19

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Gagan Deep Sharma1, Mandeep Mahendru•
Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University1
07 Jun 2020
TL;DR: Proposed measures to the government of India to balance between saving lives and sustaining the economy are suggested.
Abstract: India is the second most populous country of the world, counted among the most rapidly growing economies of the world. Realizing that a fast spread of COVID19 in India would wipe-out a huge part of the world population, the government of India found itself in a dilemma of whether to save lives or livelihoods. Prioritizing lives for livelihood, the government announced to lockdown the country. This measure is supposed to leave a lasting impact on the economy of the country, which is evident from a cut in the GDP growth forecast by Moody's (from 5.3 per cent to 2.5 per cent for calendar year 2020) within ten days of the earlier projection. This article suggests measures to the government of India to balance between saving lives and sustaining the economy.

38 citations

Cites background from "Will COVID-19 pandemic diminish by ..."

  • ...Therefore, the government has to ensure that these people are able to survive themselves during the lockdown period (Kumar, 2020)....

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  • ...…locked-down India in the wake of COVID19 Gagan Deep Sharma1 Mandeep Mahendru2 The attack of covid19 on India – the second most populous country of the world – may cause havoc, given the average quality of health infrastructure in the country (Kumar, 2020; Minhas, 2020; Vellingiri et al., 2020)....

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References
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1.

[...]

Neeltje van Doremalen1, Trenton Bushmaker1, Dylan H. Morris2, Myndi G. Holbrook1, Amandine Gamble3, Brandi N. Williamson1, Azaibi Tamin4, Jennifer L Harcourt4, Natalie J. Thornburg4, Susan I. Gerber4, James O. Lloyd-Smith3, Emmie de Wit, Vincent J. Munster •
National Institutes of Health1, Princeton University2, University of California, Los Angeles3, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention4
17 Mar 2020-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 In this research letter, investigators report on the stability of Sars-CoVs and the viability of the two virus under experimental conditions.
Abstract: Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 In this research letter, investigators report on the stability of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 under experimental conditions. The viability of the two virus...

7,412 citations

"Will COVID-19 pandemic diminish by ..." refers background in this paper

  • ...Indeed, laboratory experiments performed between 21-23oC at a relative humidity of 40%, showed that the virus survived for several days on plastics and metals (van Doremalen et al., 2020)....

    [...]

  • ...Many of this information regarding 2019-nCoV are still emerging, such as the virus being airborne for more than 3 hours and having very different survival times on metals, cardboards and plastics (van Doremalen et al., 2020)....

    [...]

  • ...Many studies suggested that COVID-19 may be stable up to 3 hours on aerosols (van Doremalen et al., 2020) and may be transmitted to long distances in a closed environment (Santarpia et al., 2020) as well as the open environment (Wang and Du, 2020)....

    [...]

  • ...Many of the information regarding 2019-nCoV are still emerging, such as the virus being airborne for more than 3 hours and having very different survival times on metals, cardboards and plastics (van Doremalen et al., 2020)....

    [...]

Journal Article•DOI•
Coronavirus envelope protein: current knowledge

[...]

Dewald Schoeman1, Burtram C. Fielding1•
University of the Western Cape1
27 May 2019-Virology Journal
TL;DR: Data shows that E is involved in critical aspects of the viral life cycle and that CoVs lacking E make promising vaccine candidates, which can aid in the production of effective anti-coronaviral agents for both human CoVs and enzootic CoVs.
Abstract: Coronaviruses (CoVs) primarily cause enzootic infections in birds and mammals but, in the last few decades, have shown to be capable of infecting humans as well. The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 and, more recently, Middle-East respiratory syndrome (MERS) has demonstrated the lethality of CoVs when they cross the species barrier and infect humans. A renewed interest in coronaviral research has led to the discovery of several novel human CoVs and since then much progress has been made in understanding the CoV life cycle. The CoV envelope (E) protein is a small, integral membrane protein involved in several aspects of the virus’ life cycle, such as assembly, budding, envelope formation, and pathogenesis. Recent studies have expanded on its structural motifs and topology, its functions as an ion-channelling viroporin, and its interactions with both other CoV proteins and host cell proteins. This review aims to establish the current knowledge on CoV E by highlighting the recent progress that has been made and comparing it to previous knowledge. It also compares E to other viral proteins of a similar nature to speculate the relevance of these new findings. Good progress has been made but much still remains unknown and this review has identified some gaps in the current knowledge and made suggestions for consideration in future research. The most progress has been made on SARS-CoV E, highlighting specific structural requirements for its functions in the CoV life cycle as well as mechanisms behind its pathogenesis. Data shows that E is involved in critical aspects of the viral life cycle and that CoVs lacking E make promising vaccine candidates. The high mortality rate of certain CoVs, along with their ease of transmission, underpins the need for more research into CoV molecular biology which can aid in the production of effective anti-coronaviral agents for both human CoVs and enzootic CoVs.

1,502 citations

"Will COVID-19 pandemic diminish by ..." refers background in this paper

  • ...Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV1....

    [...]

  • ...Doremalen et al., (2020) found in his experiment that the COVID-19 virus can remain viable in aerosols throughout his experiment (3 hours), similar to that observed with SARS-CoV-1....

    [...]

  • ...Therefore temperature may affect similar to the relationship observed between SARS-CoV and temperature (Bukhari and Jameel, 2020)....

    [...]

  • ...Transmission Potential of SARS-CoV-2 in Viral Shedding Observed at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. medRxiv 2020.03.23.20039446. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.23.20039446 Schoeman, D. and, Fielding, B.C., 2019....

    [...]

  • ...Santarpia et al., (2020) in their clinical study found that SARS-CoV-2 is shed during respiration, toileting, and fomite contact, indicating that infection may occur in both direct and indirect (through aerosols) contact....

    [...]

Journal Article•DOI•
The Computation of Equivalent Potential Temperature

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David Bolton1•
Imperial College London1
01 Jul 1980-Monthly Weather Review
TL;DR: In this paper, a simplified procedure for computing the equivalent potential temperature in the tropics is described, where a term which is omitted in the derivation of the conventional formula can lead to an error of several degrees absolute.
Abstract: A simplified procedure is described for computation of equivalent potential temperature which remains valid in situations such as in the tropics where a term which is omitted in the derivation of the conventional formula can lead to an error of several degrees absolute. The procedure involves new empirical formulas which are introduced for the saturated vapor pressure of water, the lifting condensation level temperature and the equivalent potential temperature. Errors are estimated for each of these, and results are compared with those obtained by the similar, but more complicated procedures of Betts and Dugan (1973) and Simpson (1978).

1,190 citations

"Will COVID-19 pandemic diminish by ..." refers methods in this paper

  • ...We have calculated the absolute humidity using these two parameters using the Clausius Clapeyron equation (Bolton, 1980) as follows: AH = ....

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  • ...We have calculated the absolute humidity using these two parameters using the Clausius Clapeyron equation (Bolton, 1980) as follows: ...

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Journal Article•DOI•
Coronavirus Pathogenesis and the Emerging Pathogen Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus

[...]

Susan R. Weiss1, Sonia Navas-Martin2•
University of Pennsylvania1, Drexel University2
01 Dec 2005-Microbiology and Molecular Biology Reviews
TL;DR: The data gathered on the animal coronaviruses continue to be helpful in understanding SARS-CoV, and the progress in vaccine development and antiviral therapies is discussed.
Abstract: Coronaviruses are a family of enveloped, single-stranded, positive-strand RNA viruses classified within the Nidovirales order. This coronavirus family consists of pathogens of many animal species and of humans, including the recently isolated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV). This review is divided into two main parts; the first concerns the animal coronaviruses and their pathogenesis, with an emphasis on the functions of individual viral genes, and the second discusses the newly described human emerging pathogen, SARS-CoV. The coronavirus part covers (i) a description of a group of coronaviruses and the diseases they cause, including the prototype coronavirus, murine hepatitis virus, which is one of the recognized animal models for multiple sclerosis, as well as viruses of veterinary importance that infect the pig, chicken, and cat and a summary of the human viruses; (ii) a short summary of the replication cycle of coronaviruses in cell culture; (iii) the development and application of reverse genetics systems; and (iv) the roles of individual coronavirus proteins in replication and pathogenesis. The SARS-CoV part covers the pathogenesis of SARS, the developing animal models for infection, and the progress in vaccine development and antiviral therapies. The data gathered on the animal coronaviruses continue to be helpful in understanding SARS-CoV.

997 citations

"Will COVID-19 pandemic diminish by ..." refers background in this paper

  • ...Human coronaviruses have been associated with a wide spectrum of respiratory diseases in different studies and belong to the Coronaviridae family (Bukhari and Jameel, 2020; Weiss and Navas-Martin, 2005)....

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Journal Article•DOI•
High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19

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Jingyuan Wang1, Ke Tang2, Kai Feng1, Weifeng Lv1•
Beihang University1, Tsinghua University2
09 Mar 2020-Social Science Research Network
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper investigated the relationship between the transmissibility of COVID-19 and the temperature/humidity, by controlling for various demographic, socioeconomic, geographic, healthcare and policy factors and correcting for cross-sectional correlation.
Abstract: With the ongoing global pandemic of COVID-19, a question is whether the coming summer in the northern hemisphere will reduce the transmission intensity of COVID-19 with increased humidity and temperature. In this paper, we investigate this problem using the data from the cases with symptom-onset dates from January 19 to February 10, 2020 for 100 Chinese cities, and cases with confirmed dates from March 15 to April 25 for 1,005 U.S. counties. Statistical analysis is performed to assess the relationship between the transmissibility of COVID-19 and the temperature/humidity, by controlling for various demographic, socio-economic, geographic, healthcare and policy factors and correcting for cross-sectional correlation. We find a similar influence of the temperature and relative humidity on effective reproductive number (R values) of COVID-19 for both China and the U.S. before lockdown in both countries: one-degree Celsius increase in temperature reduces R value by about 0.023 (0.026 (95% CI [-0.0395,-0.0125]) in China and 0.020 (95% CI [-0.0311, -0.0096]) in the U.S.), and one percent relative humidity rise reduces R value by 0.0078 (0.0076 (95% CI [-0.0108,-0.0045]) in China and 0.0080 (95% CI [-0.0150,-0.0010]) in the U.S.). If assuming a 30 degree and 25 percent increase in temperature and relative humidity from winter to summer in the northern hemisphere, we expect the R values to decline about 0.89 (0.69 by temperature and 0.20 by humidity). Moreover, after the lockdowns in China and the U.S., temperature and relative humidity still play an important role in reducing the R values but to a less extent. Given the notion that the non-intervened R values are around 2.5 to 3, only weather factors cannot make the R values below their critical condition of R<1, under which the epidemic diminishes gradually. Therefore, public health intervention such as social distancing is crucial to block the transmission of COVID-19 even in summer.

556 citations

"Will COVID-19 pandemic diminish by ..." refers background or result in this paper

  • ...The transmission of coronaviruses can be affected by several factors, including climate conditions (such as temperature and humidity), population density, and medical care quality (Wang et al., 2020)....

    [...]

  • ...Wang et al. (2020) also found a similar result in his model study....

    [...]

Related Papers (5)
Effect of meteorological parameters on spread of COVID-19 in India and air quality during lockdown.

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25 Nov 2020-Science of The Total Environment
Sarvan Kumar
The role of absolute humidity on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak

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17 Feb 2020-medRxiv
Wei Luo, Wei Luo, Maimuna S. Majumder, Maimuna S. Majumder, Dianbo Liu, Dianbo Liu, Canelle Poirier, Canelle Poirier, Kenneth D. Mandl, Kenneth D. Mandl, Marc Lipsitch, Mauricio Santillana, Mauricio Santillana 
Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China.

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01 Jul 2020-Science of The Total Environment
Yueling Ma, Yadong Zhao, Jiangtao Liu, Xiaotao He, Bo Wang, Shihua Fu, Jun Yan, Jingping Niu, Ji Zhou, Bin Luo, Bin Luo 
Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China

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01 Jul 2020-Science of The Total Environment
Jingui Xie, Jingui Xie, Yongjian Zhu
Impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission: A multi-city study in China.

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15 Jul 2020-Science of The Total Environment
Jiangtao Liu, Ji Zhou, Jinxi Yao, Xiuxia Zhang, Lanyu Li, Xiaocheng Xu, Xiaotao He, Bo Wang, Shihua Fu, Tingting Niu, Jun Yan, Yanjun Shi, Xiaowei Ren, Jingping Niu, Weihao Zhu, Sheng Li, Bin Luo, Bin Luo, Kai Zhang 
Frequently Asked Questions (13)
Q1. What is the reason for the reduced spread of 2019-nCoV in the humid climate?

Although higher humidity may increase the amount of virus deposited on surfaces, and virus survival time in droplets on surfaces, the reduction of the virus spread by indirect (through air) transmission may be the factor behind the reduced 2019-nCoV spread in the humid climate. 

Many studies suggested that COVID-19 may be stable up to 3 hours on aerosols (van Doremalen et al., 2020) and may be transmitted to long distances in a closed environment (Santarpia et al., 2020) as well as the open environment (Wang and Du, 2020). 

Based on their study of the spread of 2019-nCoV, Bukhari and Jameel (2020) hypothesize that the lower number of cases in tropical countries might be due to warm-humid conditions, under which the spread of the virus might be slower as has been observed for other viruses. 

So when the authors run HYSPLIT forward trajectory model for the surface level air for 3 hours period, the authors found that in normal condition in April month in India, a surface level aerosol can travel up to 4 km distance in 3 hours according to the wind speed and direction. 

In India, it is already reported more than 18 thousand cases and more than 600 deaths due to Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (COVID/Tracker). 

When a person who was infected with the virus, coughs, sneezes, breathes vigorously, or speaks loudly, the virus will be excreted from the body. 

understanding the relationship between weather and the transmission of COVID-19 is the key to forecast the intensity and end time of this pandemic. 

Few studies supporting the hypothesis that high temp and high humidity will reduce the case like, Wang et al., (2020) find in their study, under a linear regression framework, high temperature and high humidity significantly reduces the transmission of COVID-19. 

laboratory experiments performed between 21-23oC at a relative humidity of 40%, showed that the virus survived for several days on plastics and metals (van Doremalen et al., 2020). 

Since 30 January 2020, after the first case was reported in India, the increasing number of cases caused by COVID-19 had been identified until February. 

There is a need for a more appropriate study of the rate of outdoor transmission versus indoor and direct versus indirect transmission as they are not well understood, and environmental-related impacts are mostly applicable to outdoor transmissions. 

Before in March 2020, many studies speculated that the places with higher temperatures are in less risk, and it appeared that temperature might play an important role in the spread of the virus. 

more new cases were recorded in regions with a temperature between 16 and 18oC in March even more up to 30oC in India during March and April 2020, which is now challenging the hypothesis that a rise in temperature would minimize the spread of the 2019- nCoV. 

Trending Questions (1)
Did India population decrease due to Covid?

Therefore the current study, although limited, suggests that it is doubtful that the spread of COVID-19 would slow down in India due to meteorological factors, like high temperature and high humidity.

See answers from 7 other papers