Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 7021 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Years of potential life lost & Global health.
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Baylor College of Medicine1, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation2, Imperial College London3, Anglia Ruskin University4, Institut de recherche pour le développement5, University of London6, Johns Hopkins University7, Texas A&M University8, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center9, Erasmus University Rotterdam10, International Livestock Research Institute11, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute12, Brandeis University13, Case Western Reserve University14, Watford General Hospital15, Stanford University16
TL;DR: The publication of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 and the accompanying collection of Lancet articles in December 2012 provided the most comprehensive attempt to quantify the burden of almost 300 diseases, injuries, and risk factors, including neglected tropical diseases (NTDs).
Abstract: The publication of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) and the accompanying collection of Lancet articles in December 2012 provided the most comprehensive attempt to quantify the burden of almost 300 diseases, injuries, and risk factors, including neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) [1]–[3]. The disability-adjusted life year (DALY), the metric used in the GBD 2010, is a tool which may be used to assess and compare the relative impact of a number of diseases locally and globally [4]–[6]. Table 1 lists the major NTDs as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) [7] and their estimated DALYs [1]. With a few exceptions, most of the NTDs currently listed by the WHO [7] or those on the expanded list from PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases [8] are disablers rather than killers, so the DALY estimates represent one of the few metrics available that could fully embrace the chronic effects of these infections.
Table 1
Estimated DALYs (in millions) of the NTDs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.
Disease DALYs from GBD 2010 (numbers in parentheses indicate 95% confidence intervals) [1]
NTDs 26.06 (20.30–35.12)
Intestinal nematode infections 5.19 (2.98–8.81)
Hookworm disease 3.23 (1.70–5.73)
Ascariasis 1.32 (0.71–2.35)
Trichuriasis 0.64 (0.35–1.06)
Leishmaniasis 3.32 (2.18–4.90)
Schistosomiasis 3.31 (1.70–6.26)
Lymphatic filariasis 2.78 (1.8–4.00)
Food-borne trematodiases 1.88 (0.70–4.84)
Rabies 1.46 ((0.85–2.66)
Dengue 0.83 (0.34–1.41)
African trypanosomiasis 0.56 (0.08–1.77)
Chagas disease 0.55 (0.27–1.05)
Cysticercosis 0.50 (0.38–0.66)
Onchocerciasis 0.49 (0.36–0.66)
Trachoma 0.33 (0.24–0.44)
Echinococcosis 0.14 (0.07–0.29)
Yellow fever <0.001
Other NTDs * 4.72 (3.53–6.35)
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* Relapsing fevers, typhus fever, spotted fever, Q fever, other rickettsioses, other mosquito-borne viral fevers, unspecified arthropod-borne viral fever, arenaviral haemorrhagic fever, toxoplasmosis, unspecified protozoal disease, taeniasis, diphyllobothriasis and sparganosis, other cestode infections, dracunculiasis, trichinellosis, strongyloidiasis, enterobiasis, and other helminthiases.
Even DALYs, however, do not tell the complete story of the harmful effects from NTDs. Some of the specific and potential shortcomings of GBD 2010 have been highlighted elsewhere [9]. Furthermore, DALYs measure only direct health loss and, for example, do not consider the economic impact of the NTDs that results from detrimental effects on school attendance and child development, agriculture (especially from zoonotic NTDs), and overall economic productivity [10], [11]. Nor do DALYs account for direct costs of treatment, surveillance, and prevention measures. Yet, economic impact has emerged as an essential feature of the NTDs, which may trap people in a cycle of poverty and disease [10]–[12]. Additional aspects not considered by the DALY metrics are the important elements of social stigma for many of the NTDs and the spillover effects to family and community members [13], [14], loss of tourism [15], and health system overload (e.g., during dengue outbreaks). Ultimately NTD control and elimination efforts could produce social and economic benefits not necessarily reflected in the DALY metrics, especially among the most affected poor communities [11].
842 citations
TL;DR: There was no clear evidence of a change in prevalence for autistic disorder or other ASDs between 1990 and 2010 and Worldwide, there was little regional variation in the prevalence of ASDs.
Abstract: Background Autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) are persistent disabling neurodevelopmental disorders clinically evident from early childhood. For the first time, the burden of ASDs has been estimated for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). The aims of this study were to develop global and regional prevalence models and estimate the global burden of disease of ASDs. Method A systematic review was conducted for epidemiological data (prevalence, incidence, remission and mortality risk) of autistic disorder and other ASDs. Data were pooled using a Bayesian meta-regression approach while adjusting for between-study variance to derive prevalence models. Burden was calculated in terms of years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), which are reported here by world region for 1990 and 2010. Results In 2010 there were an estimated 52 million cases of ASDs, equating to a prevalence of 7.6 per 1000 or one in 132 persons. After accounting for methodological variations, there was no clear evidence of a change in prevalence for autistic disorder or other ASDs between 1990 and 2010. Worldwide, there was little regional variation in the prevalence of ASDs. Globally, autistic disorders accounted for more than 58 DALYs per 100 000 population and other ASDs accounted for 53 DALYs per 100 000. Conclusions ASDs account for substantial health loss across the lifespan. Understanding the burden of ASDs is essential for effective policy making. An accurate epidemiological description of ASDs is needed to inform public health policy and to plan for education, housing and financial support services.
839 citations
Cites methods from "Years lived with disability (YLDs) ..."
...In GBD 2010, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR, was used to pool heterogeneous information and derive missing data by making use of the mathematical relationship between incidence, prevalence, remission and mortality parameters (Vos et al. 2012)....
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...To calculate uncertainty around the final prevalence estimates, DisMod-MR fitted a randomized Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm (Vos et al. 2012) informed by: error estimates from the epidemiological data input; estimated age patterns; regional and country patterns; and study and country…...
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...Disability weights were developed for GBD 2010 by Salomon et al. (2012) with the results of this study reported in the 2012 GBD Lancet series (Salomon et al. 2012; Vos et al. 2012)....
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...To correct for any co-morbidities in YLDs between ASDs and all other causes included in GBD 2010, a co-morbidity correction was carried out using microsimulation methods across YLD estimates (Vos et al. 2012)....
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TL;DR: Mortality from liver cirrhosis was also comparatively high in Central Asia countries, particularly Mongolia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, notably Gabon.
Abstract: Liver cirrhosis is a major yet largely preventable and underappreciated cause of global health loss. Variations in cirrhosis mortality at the country level reflect differences in prevalence of risk factors such as alcohol use and hepatitis B and C infection. We estimated annual age-specific mortality from liver cirrhosis in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010. We systematically collected vital registration and verbal autopsy data on liver cirrhosis mortality for the period 1980 to 2010. We corrected for misclassification of deaths, which included deaths attributed to improbable or nonfatal causes. We used ensemble models to estimate liver cirrhosis mortality with uncertainty by age, sex, country and year. We used out-of-sample predictive validity to select the optimal model. Global liver cirrhosis deaths increased from around 676,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 452,863 to 1,004,530) in 1980 to over 1 million (1,029,042; 670,216 to 1,554,530) in 2010 (about 2% of the global total). Over the same period, the age-standardized cirrhosis mortality rate decreased by 22%. This was largely driven by decreasing cirrhosis mortality rates in China, the US and countries in Western Europe. In 2010, Egypt, followed by Moldova, had the highest age-standardized cirrhosis mortality rates, 72.7 and 71.2 deaths per 100,000, respectively, while Iceland had the lowest. In Egypt, almost one-fifth (18.1%) of all deaths in males 45- to 54-years old were due to liver cirrhosis. Liver cirrhosis mortality in Mexico is the highest in Latin America. In France and Italy, liver cirrhosis mortality fell by 50% to 60%; conversely, in the United Kingdom, mortality increased by about one-third. Mortality from liver cirrhosis was also comparatively high in Central Asia countries, particularly Mongolia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, notably Gabon. Liver cirrhosis is a significant cause of global health burden, with more than one million deaths in 2010. Our study identifies areas with high and/or rapidly increasing mortality where preventive measures to control and reduce liver cirrhosis risk factors should be urgently strengthened. Please see related commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/12/159/abstract
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815 citations
Cites background or methods from "Years lived with disability (YLDs) ..."
...Globally, the case fatality rate of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis (estimated from an analysis of hospital data) remained unchanged, at about 20% (95% uncertainty interval: 15 to 26) in 1990 and 22% (16 to 28) in 2010, even in more developed countries [1,2,26]....
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...A more detailed description of these methods can be found in the following selected references [26,30-35]....
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...We estimated country-level prevalence of chronic hepatitis viral infection for all years between 1980 and 2010 using DisMod 3, a meta-regression tool described in more detail elsewhere [1,26]....
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...In the US, for example, approximately 6,000 livers are transplanted annually [84]; this represents only 5% of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis [1,26]....
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Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation1, Brandeis University2, Erasmus University Rotterdam3, Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics4, National Institutes of Health5, Jazan University6, University of São Paulo7, Taipei Medical University8, Monash University9, Royal Melbourne Hospital10, Alfaisal University11
TL;DR: Although lower than other estimates, the results offer more evidence that the true symptomatic incidence of dengue probably falls within the commonly cited range of 50 million to 100 million cases per year.
Abstract: Summary Background Dengue is the most common arbovirus infection globally, but its burden is poorly quantified. We estimated dengue mortality, incidence, and burden for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Methods We modelled mortality from vital registration, verbal autopsy, and surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble Modelling tool. We modelled incidence from officially reported cases, and adjusted our raw estimates for under-reporting based on published estimates of expansion factors. In total, we had 1780 country-years of mortality data from 130 countries, 1636 country-years of dengue case reports from 76 countries, and expansion factor estimates for 14 countries. Findings We estimated an average of 9221 dengue deaths per year between 1990 and 2013, increasing from a low of 8277 (95% uncertainty estimate 5353–10 649) in 1992, to a peak of 11 302 (6790–13 722) in 2010. This yielded a total of 576 900 (330 000–701 200) years of life lost to premature mortality attributable to dengue in 2013. The incidence of dengue increased greatly between 1990 and 2013, with the number of cases more than doubling every decade, from 8·3 million (3·3 million–17·2 million) apparent cases in 1990, to 58·4 million (23·6 million–121·9 million) apparent cases in 2013. When accounting for disability from moderate and severe acute dengue, and post-dengue chronic fatigue, 566 000 (186 000–1 415 000) years lived with disability were attributable to dengue in 2013. Considering fatal and non-fatal outcomes together, dengue was responsible for 1·14 million (0·73 million–1·98 million) disability-adjusted life-years in 2013. Interpretation Although lower than other estimates, our results offer more evidence that the true symptomatic incidence of dengue probably falls within the commonly cited range of 50 million to 100 million cases per year. Our mortality estimates are lower than those presented elsewhere and should be considered in light of the totality of evidence suggesting that dengue mortality might, in fact, be substantially higher. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
788 citations
TL;DR: This study substantially expands the empirical basis for assessment of non-fatal outcomes in the GBD study and substantiates the notion that disability weights are sensitive to particular details in descriptions of health states, but robust to duration of outcomes.
780 citations
References
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TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.
11,809 citations
Book•
31 Dec 1997
TL;DR: The aim of this study was to establish a database of histological groups and to provide a level of consistency and quality of data that could be applied in the design of future registries.
Abstract: 1. Techniques of registration 2. Classification and coding 3. Histological groups 4. Comparability and quality of data 5. Data processing 6. Age-standardization 7. Incidence data by site and sex for each registry 8. Summary tables presenting age-standardized rates 9. Data on histological type for selected sites
10,160 citations
TL;DR: Notably, major depressive disorder is a common disorder, widely distributed in the population, and usually associated with substantial symptom severity and role impairment, and while the recent increase in treatment is encouraging, inadequate treatment is a serious concern.
Abstract: ContextUncertainties exist about prevalence and correlates of major depressive
disorder (MDD).ObjectiveTo present nationally representative data on prevalence and correlates
of MDD by Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders,
Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) criteria, and on study
patterns and correlates of treatment and treatment adequacy from the recently
completed National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R).DesignFace-to-face household survey conducted from February 2001 to December
2002.SettingThe 48 contiguous United States.ParticipantsHousehold residents ages 18 years or older (N = 9090) who responded
to the NCS-R survey.Main Outcome MeasuresPrevalence and correlates of MDD using the World Health Organization's
(WHO) Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), 12-month severity
with the Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology Self-Report (QIDS-SR),
the Sheehan Disability Scale (SDS), and the WHO disability assessment scale
(WHO-DAS). Clinical reinterviews used the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV.ResultsThe prevalence of CIDI MDD for lifetime was 16.2% (95% confidence interval
[CI], 15.1-17.3) (32.6-35.1 million US adults) and for 12-month was 6.6% (95%
CI, 5.9-7.3) (13.1-14.2 million US adults). Virtually all CIDI 12-month cases
were independently classified as clinically significant using the QIDS-SR,
with 10.4% mild, 38.6% moderate, 38.0% severe, and 12.9% very severe. Mean
episode duration was 16 weeks (95% CI, 15.1-17.3). Role impairment as measured
by SDS was substantial as indicated by 59.3% of 12-month cases with severe
or very severe role impairment. Most lifetime (72.1%) and 12-month (78.5%)
cases had comorbid CIDI/DSM-IV disorders, with MDD
only rarely primary. Although 51.6% (95% CI, 46.1-57.2) of 12-month cases
received health care treatment for MDD, treatment was adequate in only 41.9%
(95% CI, 35.9-47.9) of these cases, resulting in 21.7% (95% CI, 18.1-25.2)
of 12-month MDD being adequately treated. Sociodemographic correlates of treatment
were far less numerous than those of prevalence.ConclusionsMajor depressive disorder is a common disorder, widely distributed in
the population, and usually associated with substantial symptom severity and
role impairment. While the recent increase in treatment is encouraging, inadequate
treatment is a serious concern. Emphasis on screening and expansion of treatment
needs to be accompanied by a parallel emphasis on treatment quality improvement.
7,706 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)
7,154 citations