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The paper concludes that world copper prices play an important role in short-term fluctuations and probably influence long-term growth of the Chilean economy.
The results suggest an important role for copper prices; for instance, an upswing at the time of discovery can hasten the development of the mine by two to three years in low-income countries.
If true, the implications are significant for the copper industry worldwide, because the USA is the largest national market for copper.
Using least squares with breakpoints, the results indicate that from January 1993 to December 2016 LME real copper spot prices have been characterized by structural changes and its determinants significantly varies in distinct periods.
This was partly due to the tremendous rise in copper prices, and due to extraordinary dependence of economic growth on that sector.
Open accessJournal ArticleDOI
John Elder, Hong Miao, Sanjay Ramchander 
164 Citations
Furthermore, announcements that reflect an unexpected improvement in the economy tend to have a negative impact on gold and silver prices; however, they tend to have a positive effect on copper prices.
This work is done in the context of copper prices but a similar approach should be applicable to wide variety of commodities although certainly not all since commodities come with very distinct characteristics.
This result clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid predictive techniques in revealing the underlying nonlinear patterns of international copper prices.
The results identify two cycles of copper prices and price forecasts in the short term.
We showed that our method is capable of accurately and reliably predicting copper prices in both short-term (days) and long-term (years), with mean absolute percentage errors below 4%.
The paper concludes that the behaviour of copper prices during the 1945–1975 period arose from the particular circumstances of the time and offers very little guidance, if any, to likely future trends.
The results indicate that path dependence and relative prices—especially in the long run—are both important factors influencing the copper–aluminum substitution process.

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