Topic

# Autocorrelation

About: Autocorrelation is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 11903 publications have been published within this topic receiving 325560 citations.

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TL;DR: In this paper, a natural generalization of the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic) process introduced in 1982 to allow for past conditional variances in the current conditional variance equation is proposed.

Abstract: A natural generalization of the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic) process introduced in Engle (1982) to allow for past conditional variances in the current conditional variance equation is proposed. Stationarity conditions and autocorrelation structure for this new class of parametric models are derived. Maximum likelihood estimation and testing are also considered. Finally an empirical example relating to the uncertainty of the inflation rate is presented.

16,132 citations

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TL;DR: In this paper, the mutual information I is examined for a model dynamical system and for chaotic data from an experiment on the Belousov-Zhabotinskii reaction.

Abstract: The mutual information I is examined for a model dynamical system and for chaotic data from an experiment on the Belousov-Zhabotinskii reaction. An N logN algorithm for calculating I is presented. As proposed by Shaw, a minimum in I is found to be a good criterion for the choice of time delay in phase-portrait reconstruction from time-series data. This criterion is shown to be far superior to choosing a zero of the autocorrelation function.

3,821 citations

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TL;DR: A general approach to Time Series Modelling and ModeLLing with ARMA Processes, which describes the development of a Stationary Process in Terms of Infinitely Many Past Values and the Autocorrelation Function.

Abstract: Preface 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Examples of Time Series 1.2 Objectives of Time Series Analysis 1.3 Some Simple Time Series Models 1.3.3 A General Approach to Time Series Modelling 1.4 Stationary Models and the Autocorrelation Function 1.4.1 The Sample Autocorrelation Function 1.4.2 A Model for the Lake Huron Data 1.5 Estimation and Elimination of Trend and Seasonal Components 1.5.1 Estimation and Elimination of Trend in the Absence of Seasonality 1.5.2 Estimation and Elimination of Both Trend and Seasonality 1.6 Testing the Estimated Noise Sequence 1.7 Problems 2 STATIONARY PROCESSES 2.1 Basic Properties 2.2 Linear Processes 2.3 Introduction to ARMA Processes 2.4 Properties of the Sample Mean and Autocorrelation Function 2.4.2 Estimation of $\gamma(\cdot)$ and $\rho(\cdot)$ 2.5 Forecasting Stationary Time Series 2.5.3 Prediction of a Stationary Process in Terms of Infinitely Many Past Values 2.6 The Wold Decomposition 1.7 Problems 3 ARMA MODELS 3.1 ARMA($p,q$) Processes 3.2 The ACF and PACF of an ARMA$(p,q)$ Process 3.2.1 Calculation of the ACVF 3.2.2 The Autocorrelation Function 3.2.3 The Partial Autocorrelation Function 3.3 Forecasting ARMA Processes 1.7 Problems 4 SPECTRAL ANALYSIS 4.1 Spectral Densities 4.2 The Periodogram 4.3 Time-Invariant Linear Filters 4.4 The Spectral Density of an ARMA Process 1.7 Problems 5 MODELLING AND PREDICTION WITH ARMA PROCESSES 5.1 Preliminary Estimation 5.1.1 Yule-Walker Estimation 5.1.3 The Innovations Algorithm 5.1.4 The Hannan-Rissanen Algorithm 5.2 Maximum Likelihood Estimation 5.3 Diagnostic Checking 5.3.1 The Graph of $\t=1,\ldots,n\ 5.3.2 The Sample ACF of the Residuals

3,730 citations

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TL;DR: The paper discusses first how autocorrelation in ecological variables can be described and measured, and ways are presented of explicitly introducing spatial structures into ecological models, and two approaches are proposed.

Abstract: ilbstract. Autocorrelation is a very general statistical property of ecological variables observed across geographic space; its most common forms are patches and gradients. Spatial autocorrelation. which comes either from the physical forcing of environmental variables or from community processes, presents a problem for statistical testing because autocorrelated data violate the assumption of independence of most standard statistical procedures. The paper discusses first how autocorrelation in ecological variables can be described and measured. with emphasis on mapping techniques. Then. proper statistical testing in the presence of autocorrelation is briefly discussed. Finally. ways are presented of explicitly introducing spatial structures into ecological models. Two approaches are proposed: in the raw-data approach, the spatial structure takes the form of a polynomial of the x and .v geographic coordinates of the sampling stations; in the matrix approach. the spatial structure is introduced in the form of a geographic distance matrix among locations. These two approaches are compared in the concluding section. A table provides a list of computer programs available for spatial analysis.

3,337 citations

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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a test for unit roots which is based on an approximation of an autoregressive-moving average model by an auto-gression, which has a limit distribution whose percentiles have been tabulated.

Abstract: SUMMARY Recently, methods for detecting unit roots in autoregressive and autoregressivemoving average time series have been proposed. The presence of a unit root indicates that the time series is not stationary but that differencing will reduce it to stationarity. The tests proposed to date require specification of the number of autoregressive and moving average coefficients in the model. In this paper we develop a test for unit roots which is based on an approximation of an autoregressive-moving average model by an autoregression. The test statistic is standard output from most regression programs and has a limit distribution whose percentiles have been tabulated. An example is provided.

3,042 citations