Topic

# Bayes' theorem

About: Bayes' theorem is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 13158 publications have been published within this topic receiving 563695 citations. The topic is also known as: Bayes theorem & Bayes' rule.

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TL;DR: In this paper, the problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion.

Abstract: The problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion. These terms are a valid large-sample criterion beyond the Bayesian context, since they do not depend on the a priori distribution.

38,681 citations

01 Jan 2005

TL;DR: In this paper, the problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion.

Abstract: The problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion. These terms are a valid large-sample criterion beyond the Bayesian context, since they do not depend on the a priori distribution.

36,760 citations

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01 Jan 2014TL;DR: A stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild differentiability conditions, even works in the intractable case is introduced.

Abstract: How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild differentiability conditions, even works in the intractable case. Our contributions is two-fold. First, we show that a reparameterization of the variational lower bound yields a lower bound estimator that can be straightforwardly optimized using standard stochastic gradient methods. Second, we show that for i.i.d. datasets with continuous latent variables per datapoint, posterior inference can be made especially efficient by fitting an approximate inference model (also called a recognition model) to the intractable posterior using the proposed lower bound estimator. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.

20,769 citations

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TL;DR: It is found that in most cases the estimated ‘log probability of data’ does not provide a correct estimation of the number of clusters, K, and using an ad hoc statistic ΔK based on the rate of change in the log probability between successive K values, structure accurately detects the uppermost hierarchical level of structure for the scenarios the authors tested.

Abstract: The identification of genetically homogeneous groups of individuals is a long standing issue in population genetics. A recent Bayesian algorithm implemented in the software STRUCTURE allows the identification of such groups. However, the ability of this algorithm to detect the true number of clusters (K) in a sample of individuals when patterns of dispersal among populations are not homogeneous has not been tested. The goal of this study is to carry out such tests, using various dispersal scenarios from data generated with an individual-based model. We found that in most cases the estimated 'log probability of data' does not provide a correct estimation of the number of clusters, K. However, using an ad hoc statistic DeltaK based on the rate of change in the log probability of data between successive K values, we found that STRUCTURE accurately detects the uppermost hierarchical level of structure for the scenarios we tested. As might be expected, the results are sensitive to the type of genetic marker used (AFLP vs. microsatellite), the number of loci scored, the number of populations sampled, and the number of individuals typed in each sample.

18,572 citations

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TL;DR: The nearest neighbor decision rule assigns to an unclassified sample point the classification of the nearest of a set of previously classified points, so it may be said that half the classification information in an infinite sample set is contained in the nearest neighbor.

Abstract: The nearest neighbor decision rule assigns to an unclassified sample point the classification of the nearest of a set of previously classified points. This rule is independent of the underlying joint distribution on the sample points and their classifications, and hence the probability of error R of such a rule must be at least as great as the Bayes probability of error R^{\ast} --the minimum probability of error over all decision rules taking underlying probability structure into account. However, in a large sample analysis, we will show in the M -category case that R^{\ast} \leq R \leq R^{\ast}(2 --MR^{\ast}/(M-1)) , where these bounds are the tightest possible, for all suitably smooth underlying distributions. Thus for any number of categories, the probability of error of the nearest neighbor rule is bounded above by twice the Bayes probability of error. In this sense, it may be said that half the classification information in an infinite sample set is contained in the nearest neighbor.

12,243 citations