Brent Crude

About: Brent Crude is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 548 publications have been published within this topic receiving 9879 citations.

Intelligent Decision Support Systems for Oil Price Forecasting

Abstract: This research studies the application of hybrid algorithms for predicting the prices of crude oil. Brent crude oil price data and hybrid intelligent algorithm (time delay neural network, probabilistic neural network, and fuzzy logic) were used to build intelligent decision support systems for predicting crude oil prices. The proposed model was able to predict future crude oil prices from August 2013 to July 2014. Future prices can guide decision makers in economic planning and taking effective measures to tackle the negative impact of crude oil price volatility. Energy demand and supply projection can effectively be tackled with accurate forecasts of crude oil prices, which in turn can create stability in the oil market. The future crude oil prices predict by the intelligent decision support systems can be used by both government and international organizations related to crude oil such as organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) for policy formulation in the next one year. DOR: 98.1000/1726-8125.2015.0.47.0.0.73.103

An update to the comovements of commodity, equity and USD

Abstract: The current financial crisis has large impact on market structure. This research focused on the dynamic comovements among four assets: 1 month gold futures, 1 month Brent crude oil futures, USD Index and S&P500 Index. The study further examines causalities among assets using the linear Granger causality test and the nonlinear Granger causality test, and the effect of shocks on the assets price movements using the Safe Haven Analysis. As results, we found differences in the dynamic comovements among assets before and during the current financial crisis. Further using the findings of the analysis, new models are constructed. The predictions of our models, using three different methods: stable coefficients, moving window, and expanding window methods, are compared with two benchmark models. We further compute CPS, MAE and MSPE to compare the predictions. As results, our models provide outstanding accurate predictions and the predictions are most accurate using the moving window method.

Role of Macroeconomic Variables in Indian Mutual Fund Industry

Abstract: Crude oil prices have started demonstrating accelerating rise, reminding large users, like India, of the pitfalls of indefinitely postponing deregulation of oil prices. While deregulation of fuel prices can have inflationary tendencies in the short run, the long-run effect of a pricing regime that reflects the economic value of oil, is not maleficent for the economy. On the other hand, providing openended fuel subsidies of huge quantum is fiscally unsustainable, while having distortionary effects at the macro level. Hence, there is little alternative to deregulating oil prices. Deregulation would also release resources for the government to not only invest in provision of socially productive goods, but also commercializing alternative energy usage. But some issues need to be addressed before effecting deregulation, viz. rationalising the taxation structure, promoting hedging against oil price volatility and educating stakeholders of the efficiency gains of deregulation which outweigh the costs. International experience suggests that these are, indeed, possible. * Debojyoti Dey is an Economist at the Multi Commodity Exchange of India. He can be reached at debojyoti.dey@mcxindia.com Niteen Jain is Senior Analyst at the Multi Commodity Exchange of India. He can be reached at niteen.jain@mcxindia.com Introduction After trading in double digits for the entire year 2010, the global crude oil benchmark, Brent crude, breached the psychologically important $100 a barrel mark in February 2011 for the first time since 2008. While the current sudden spike in oil prices can be attributed to the unstable geopolitical situation in the West Asia North Africa (WANA) region, the global economic recovery after the crisis of 2008-2009 appears to be providing floor support to high prices. Corroborating this trend, global oil demand was up 3% year-on-year in 2010 with inventories in developed countries remaining relatively low. Interestingly though, U.S. and Europe have not seen any significant increase in oil consumption and the entire incremental demand for crude oil post2008 seems to have emanated from emerging economies, especially in Asia. The increasing share of emerging economies, particularly China and India, only strengthens the two-decade long structural shift in the global oil economy which is now being driven more by the appetite for oil in these economies. India is, justifiably, worried. This is not only on account of our high O il P ol ic ie s in In di a – S til l a L on g W ay to G o

The Effects of Structural Breaks on Energy Resources in the Long Run. Evidence from the Last Two Oil Price Crashes before COVID-19

Abstract: The course of events since 2014, including the worldwide pandemic of a coronavirus disease, have shown that oil market fundamentals have not always been clearly anticipated and that additional external factors, rather than those related to supply and demand, do play important roles in signaling future price changes. Within that complex setting, this study examined the influences of structural breaks on the long-term properties of Brent crude oil, gasoil, low-sulfur fuel oil, natural gas, and coal over the period 2002–2018. In an effort to assess the impacts of these structural changes, we identified time points at which structural break changes occurred and unit root properties using a representative variety of unit root testing alternatives. From the estimation results, we observed that only fuel oil and national balancing point (NBP) prices show evidence of mean-reverting behavior, suggesting that shocks to these two markets are short-lived when allowing for structural breaks. Although the idea of market forces bringing the non-renewable markets to their equilibrium in the long run makes the role of policy-making more challenging, it highlights the importance of the policy mix in the transition to a low-carbon energy system.