Showing papers on "Capital deepening published in 2005"

ICT AND EUROPE's PRODUCTIVITY PERFORMANCE: INDUSTRY‐LEVEL GROWTH ACCOUNT COMPARISONS WITH THE UNITED STATES

Abstract: In this paper we present a new industry-level database to analyse sources of growth in four major European countries: France, Germany, Netherlands and United Kingdom (EU-4), in comparison with the United States for the period 1979-2000. Aggregate labour productivity growth is decomposed into industry-level contributions of labour quality, ICT and non-ICT capital deepening and TFP. A small set of service industries is mainly responsible for the acceleration in ICT capital deepening in both regions, but their contribution to growth is lower in the EU-4 than in the U.S. TFP in these industries accelerated in the U.S in the 1990s, but not in Europe. In addition, widespread deceleration in non-ICT capital deepening in the EU-4 has led to a European productivity slowdown. This is linked to wage moderation in the 1990s.

Entrepreneurship capital and regional growth

Abstract: This paper introduces the concept of entrepreneurship capital and links it to the economic performance of regions. We give a definition of entrepreneurship capital and suggest different measures of this variable. Economic performance of regions is measured by the stock and the growth rate of regions, labor productivity. We find that entrepreneurship capital is stronger in urban areas and spatially correlated. Using regressions of production functions and growth equations, we find evidence that entrepreneurship capital has a positive and large impact on region's labor productivity. However for growth, this result holds only for risk-oriented measures of entrepreneurship capital and for densely populated regions. We derive policy implications from these findings.

Human Capital and Convergence: A Production-Frontier Approach

Abstract: Using nonparametric, production-frontier methods, we decompose labor productivity growth into components attributable to technological change (shifts in the world production frontier), technological catch-up (movements toward or away from the frontier), and physical and human capital accumulation (movements along the frontier). We find that (1) technological change is decidedly nonneutral, (2) productivity growth is driven primarily by physical and human capital accumulation, (3) the increased international dispersion of productivity is explained primarily by physical capital accumulation, and (4) international polarization (the shift from a unimodal to a bimodal distribution) is brought about primarily by efficiency changes (technological catch-up).

Pitfalls of a state-dominated financial system: the case of china

Abstract: State-owned financial institutions have been proposed as a way to address market failure, but the recent literature has also highlighted their pathological problems. This paper studies the case of China for pitfalls of a state-dominated financial system, including possible segmentation of the internal capital market due to local government interference and mis-allocation of capital. Even without formal legal prohibition to capital movement across regions, we find that capital mobility within China is low. Furthermore, to the extent some capital moves around the country, the government (as opposed to the private sector) tends to allocate capital systematically away from more productive regions toward less productive ones. In this context, a smaller role of the government in the financial sector might increase economic efficiency and the rate of economic growth.

Capital Flows in a Globalized World: The Role of Policies and Institutions

Abstract: We describe the patterns of international capital flows in the period 1970 2000. We then examine the determinants of capital flows and capital flows volatility during this period. We find that institutional quality is an important determinant of capital flows. Historical determinants of current legal institutions have a direct eect on foreign investments. Policy plays a significant role in explaining the changes in the level of capital flows over time and their volatility.

The Role of Human Capital and Population Growth in R&D-based Models of Economic Growth

Abstract: Human capital accumulation is introduced in a growth model with R&D-driven expansion in variety and quality of intermediate goods and knowledge spillovers from both research activities. Economic growth is no longer uniquely tied to population growth as previous growth models without scale effects suggest. The model predicts that economic growth depends positively on the rate of human capital accumulation and positively or negatively on population growth and is therefore supported by empirical evidence to a greater extent than previous models. In particular, long-run growth is compatible with a stable population.

The Winner's Curse of Human Capital

Abstract: We extend a model developed by Evans and Jovanovic (1989) to explain when start-ups are credit constrained. We show that the magnitude of the credit constraint is conditioned by the relative productivity of human capital in both wage work and self-employment. The effect of predicted household income on start-up capital is used to indicate the existence of financial constraint. Empirical analysis reveals that entrepreneurs with high human capital have both greater financial wealth and greater levels of start-up capital pointing to the endogenous nature of credit constraints. High human capital relaxes financial constraints, apparently due to greater productivity of human capital in wage work than in self-employment. Those who are the least likely to be credit constrained in self-employment are those that are least likely to switch into self-employment,and vice versa.

Capital Account Liberalization, Institutional Quality and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence

Abstract: This paper shows that the effects of capital account liberalization on growth depend upon the environment in which that policy change occurs. A theoretical model demonstrates how the institutional quality of a country, reflecting the extent to which its capital is protected from expropriation, affects the responsiveness of growth to capital account liberalization. In particular, this model predicts a non-monotonic, inverted-U shaped relationship between the amount of time during which the capital account is liberalized and economic growth. A specification drawn from this model is tested by considering the determinants of economic growth over the period 1976 - 1995 for a panel of 71 countries. The estimates of this model strongly support a non-monotonic interaction between capital account liberalization and institutional quality, with 20 percent of the countries, those with better (but not the best) institutions exhibiting a significant relationship between capital account openness and economic growth.

The Marginal Product of Capital

Abstract: Whether or not the marginal product of capital (MPK) differs across countries is a question that keeps coming up in discussions of comparative economic development and patterns of capital flows. Attempts to provide an empirical answer to this question have so far been mostly indirect and based on heroic assumptions. The first contribution of this paper is to present new estimates of the cross-country dispersion of marginal products. We find that the MPK is much higher on average in poor countries. However, the financial rate of return from investing in physical capital is not much higher in poor countries, so heterogeneity in MPKs is not principally due to financial market frictions. Instead, the main culprit is the relatively high cost of investment goods in developing countries. One implication of our findings is that increased aid flows to developing countries will not significantly increase these countries' incomes.

Italy's Decline: Getting the Facts Right

Abstract: The Italian economy is often said to be on a declining path. In this paper, we document that: (i) Italy's current decline is a labor productivity problem (ii) the labor productivity slowdown stems from declining productivity growth in all industries but utilities (with manufacturing contributing for about one half of the reduction) and diminished interindustry reallocation of workers from agriculture to market services; (iii) the labor productivity slowdown has been mostly driven by declining TFP, with roughly unchanged capital deepening. The only mild decline of capital deepening is due to the rise in the value added share of capital that counteracted declining capital accumulation.

Regulation and Economic Performance

Abstract: This paper assesses the implications of past and ongoing reforms in OECD product markets for the labour productivity gap, a key component of cross-country differences in GDP per capita. After a brief review of the theoretical literature, we bring together the results obtained in some of our empirical work over the past few years, discussing econometric approaches and their drawbacks. We then use these results to gauge the likely effect of further reforms. We distinguish effects on capital deepening and technical progress by examining the impact of regulations on investment (domestic and foreign) and multi-factor productivity. We focus on the effects of policies aimed at strengthening private governance (e.g. through privatization) and opening up access to markets where competition is economically viable. The results suggest that pro-competitive reforms tend to increase both investment and multifactor productivity and, through both these channels, they can lead to higher growth in GDP per capita.

International Borrowing, Capital Controls and the Exchange Rate: Lessons from Chile

Abstract: This paper analyzes the Chilean experience with capital flows. We discuss the role played by capital controls, financial regulations and the exchange rate regime. The focus is on the period after 1990, the period when Chile returned to international capital markets. We also discuss the early 80s, where a currency collapse triggered a financial crisis in Chile, despite stricter capital controls on inflows than the 90s and tighter currency matching requirements on the banking sector. We conclude that financial regulation and the exchange rate regime are at the center of capital inflows experiences and financial vulnerabilities. Rigid exchange rates induce vulnerabilities, which may lead to sharp capital account reversals. We also discuss three important characteristics of the Chilean experience since the 90s. The first is the fact that most international borrowing is done directly by corporations and it is not intermediated by the banking system. The second is the implication of the free trade agreement of Chilean and the US regarding capital controls. Finally, we examine the Chilean experience following the Asian-Russia crisis, showing that Chile did not suffer a sudden-stop, but a current account reversal due to policy reactions and a sudden-start in capital outflows.

Chapter 11 Externalities and Growth

Abstract: Externalities play a central role in most theories of economic growth. We argue that international externalities, in particular, are essential for explaining a number of empirical regularities about growth and development. Foremost among these is that many countries appear to share a common long run growth rate despite persistently different rates of investment in physical capital, human capital, and research. With this motivation, we construct a hybrid of some prominent growth models that have international knowledge externalities. When calibrated, the hybrid model does a surprisingly good job of generating realistic dispersion of income levels with modest barriers to technology adoption. Human capital and physical capital contribute to income differences both directly (as usual), and indirectly by boosting resources devoted to technology adoption. The model implies that most of income above subsistence is made possible by international diffusion of knowledge.

What makes FDI work? A panel analysis of the growth effect of FDI in Africa

Abstract: A panel analysis of the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth is conducted using data from 47 African countries over the last two decades (1980-2000). Overall, the analysis shows that FDI exerts a positive impact on growth in Africa. Also, factors such as trained human capital and an attractive investment climate stemming from a developed infrastructure, lower country risk and stable macro environment in the host countries, enhance the impact of FDI on growth. These results confirm the hypothesis that foreign aid as well as domestic and foreign investment are effective and growth enhancing only in a good policy environment. But, because Africa receives only a small portion of FDI, foreign aid and domestic investment still account for a greater effect on growth. Surprisingly, regression results reveal that corruption does not matter in the case of FDI: countries where corruption is perceived to be high still benefit from a positive impact of FDI on growth.

Alcohol Use, Human Capital, and Wages

Abstract: This article develops and estimates a model of wage determination that isolates the effects of alcohol use on wages as mediated through human capital accumulation. Although generally insignificant, estimation results suggest that moderate alcohol use while in school or working has a positive effect on the returns to education or experience, and therefore on human capital accumulation, but heavier drinking reduces this gain slightly. Based on these results, alcohol use does not appear to adversely affect returns to education or work experience and therefore has no negative effect on the efficiency of education or experience in forming human capital.

Making Capitalism Work: Social Capital and Economic Growth in Italy, 1970-1995

Abstract: Using data on the 20 Italian regions for the period 1970-1995, I examine whether the presence of social capital, as reflected in a number of different measures collected by Putnam (1993), affects economic productivity. I find three types of effects. First, social capital, when treated as an input to regional production, has a positive and significant effect in the South, but a much weaker effect in the North. Second, some forms of social capital can significantly increase regions' propensities to make physical capital investments; however, dense networks of association reduce capital investment in both the North and South. Instrumental variables estimates show that social capital affects growth both directly and through affecting investment in physical capital. Third, social capital contributes positively to the rate of total factor productivity growth in the Italian regions.

A Dynamic Model of Differential Human Capital and Criminal Activity

Abstract: This paper presents a dynamic model of criminal activity. Individuals are endowed with legal and criminal human capital. Potential incomes in legal and criminal sectors depend on the level of the relevant human capital, the rate of return and random shocks. Human capital can be enhanced by participating in both sectors. Legal human capital can also be enhanced through investment. Human capital is subject to depreciation. Individuals maximize expected discounted lifetime utility, which depends on consumption. The model allows analyses of the effects of recessions, imprisonment/rehabilitation scenarios, sanctions and returns to human capital. New insights, such as hysteresis in criminal behaviour, are obtained.

Trade liberalization and the politics of financial development

Abstract: Author(s): Braun, Matias | Abstract: A well developed financial system enhances competition in the industrial sector by allowing easier entry. The impact varies across industries, however. For some, small changes in financial development quickly induce entry and dissipate incumbents’ rents, generating strong incentives to oppose improvement of the financial system. In other sectors incumbents may even benefit from increased availability of external funds. The relative strength of promoters and opponents determines the political equilibrium level of financial system development. This may be perturbed by the effect of trade liberalization in the strength of each group. Using a sample of 41 trade liberalizers we conduct an event study and show that the change in the strength of promoters vis-a-vis opponents is a very good predictor of subsequent financial development. The result is not driven by changes in demand for external funds, or by the success of the trade policy. The relationship is mediated by policy reforms, the kind that induces competition in the financial sector, in particular. Real effects follow not so much from capital deepening but mainly through improved allocation. The effect is stronger in countries with high levels of governance, suggesting that incumbents resort to this costly but more subtle way of restricting entry where is difficult to obtain more blatant forms of anti-competitive measures from politicians.

A Hicksian multiplier-accelerator model with floor determined by capital stock

Abstract: This article reconsiders the Hicksian multiplier-accelerator model with the “floor” related to the depreciation on actual capital stock. Through the introduction of the capital variable, a growth trend is created endogenously by the model itself, along with growth rate oscillations around it. The “ceiling” can be dispensed with altogether. As everything is growing in such a model, a variable transformation is introduced to focus relative dynamics of the income growth rate and the actual capital output ratio.

India's Experience with Capital Flows: The Elusive Quest for a Sustainable Current Account Deficit

Abstract: From the early 1990s onwards, India has engaged in policies involving trade liberalisation, strong controls on debt flows, and encouragement for portfolio flows and FDI, under a pegged exchange rate regime. Domestic institutional factors have led to relatively little FDI and substantial portfolio flows. There has been significant tension between capital flows and the currency regime. Many tactical details of the intricate reforms to the capital controls derive from the interlocking relationships between monetary policy, the currency regime and capital flows. In the recent period, pegging has given a capital outflow through reserves accumulation which was larger than the substantial net private capital inflows. In March 2004, difficulties of pegging appear to have led to a near-tripling of the nominal rupee-dollar returns volatility, which has reduced outward capital flows. The goal of the early 1990s - of finding a consistent way to augment investment using current account deficits - has remained elusive.

Capital Flows and Exchange Rates

Abstract: This article focuses on the possible role of capital flows in explaining exchange rate movements. Some commentators have suggested that a substantial increase in capital flows into the United States could have accounted for the recent appreciation of the US dollar. This could imply that capital inflows have increased in response to a rise in the rate of return on capital, which in turn has reflected the structural increase in US productivity seen in recent years. We find evidence to suggest that this may explain part of the recent dollar appreciation, but unsurprisingly it does not provide a full explanation.

Capital Flows and Controls in Brazil: What Have We Learned?

Abstract: This paper investigates the evolution of capital flows and controls in Brazil. It provides stylized facts regarding the balance of payments (current account cycles, capital flow cycles and composition, and debt accumulation) in Brazil over the last three decades. We conclude that notwithstanding the financial crises and macroeconomic volatility of the recent past, much progress has been achieved in reducing external vulnerability. Moreover, capital account liberalization and currency convertibility have advanced significantly since early 1990s. Nevertheless, the current situation calls for a simplification of the exchange market regulations and elimination of existing bureaucracy. Further capital account liberalization measures have to be accompanied by a broad range of reforms.

The impact of population ageing on innovation and productivity growth in Europe

Abstract: When we try to answer the question what an ageing workforce will mean for the future European productivity growth, we have to start with the question about what productivity is. In this report we follow the common convention and use value added based labour productivity, the single most frequently computed productivity statistic. Applying growth accounting methods, one can show that the growth rate of labour productivity depends on capital deepening and the growth rate of total factor productivity, the latter often being referred to as a "measure of ignorance". In this report we argue that productivity is a system attribute rather than a property in the individual inputs. In particular, since capital and labour are value-weighted aggregates of a great number of fundamentally different humans, objects and services, combined in a great number of ways, there is no unique specification how workforce ageing will influence productivity. Our main argument is that individual productivity cannot be separated from its social context. Productivity growth is closely related to investment in research and development that underlies technological growth. Since the composition of human capital will determine the growth potential of technology (in particular innovation versus imitation) we discuss the educational composition in the past and its development in the future together with past and future projections of the age composition of the workforce as central explanatory factors of productivity growth....

Italy’s Decline: Getting the Facts Right

Abstract: The Italian economy is often said to be on a declining path. In this paper, we document that: (i) Italy’s current decline is a labor productivity problem (ii) the labor productivity slowdown stems from declining productivity growth in all industries but utilities (with manufacturing contributing for about one half of the reduction) and diminished interindustry reallocation of workers from agriculture to market services; (iii) the labor productivity slowdown has been mostly driven by declining TFP, with roughly unchanged capital deepening. The only mild decline of capital deepening is due to the rise in the value added share of capital that counteracted declining capital accumulation.

Cyclical implications of minimum capital requirements

Abstract: Capital requirements play a key role in the supervision and regulation of banks. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is now changing the current framework by introducing risk-sensitive capital charges. There have been concerns that this will unduly increase volatility in the banks' capital. Furthermore, when the credit supply is rationed, capital requirements may exacerbate an economic downturn. We examine the problem of cyclicality in a macroeconomic model which explicitly takes regulatory constraints into account. We find that the capital buffer which banks hold on top of the required minimum plays a crucial role in mitigating the volatility in capital requirements. Therefore, despite the fact that capital charges may vary significantly over time, the effects on the macroeconomy will be moderate.

Reflections on Growth Theory

Abstract: This note contains some general and idiosyncratic reflections on the current state of neoclassical growth theory. It expresses some surprise at the lack of attention both to multi-sector growth models and to multi-country models with trade and capital flows. It also suggests that there might be value in further analysis of some old topics like capital–labor substitution with an expanded definition of capital, and the interaction of growth and medium-run phenomena (or, to put it differently, the interaction of demand-side and supply-side variations).

Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals

Abstract: In this paper I use a broad multi-country data set to analyze the relationship between restrictions to capital mobility and external crises. The analysis focuses on two manifestations of external crises: (a) sudden stops of capital inflows; and (b) current account reversals. I deal with two important policy-related issues: First, does the extent of capital mobility affect countries' degree of vulnerability to external crises; and second, does the extent of capital mobility determine the depth of external crises -- as measured by the decline in growth -- once the crises occur? Overall, my results cast some doubts on the assertion that increased capital mobility has caused heightened macroeconomic vulnerabilities. I find no systematic evidence suggesting that countries with higher capital mobility tend to have a higher incidence of crises, or tend to face a higher probability of having a crisis, than countries with lower mobility. My results do suggest, however, that once a crisis occurs, countries with higher capital mobility may face a higher cost, in terms of growth decline.

Capital Structure and the Cost of Capital

Abstract: This article provides an intertemporal synthesis of the basic neoclassical theory of capital structure as a tradeoff between tax effects and bankruptcy costs. The latter is partially endogenized as the loss of future tax benefits and the stationary reorganization policy is considered.