Showing papers on "Capital deepening published in 2011"

Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flights and Retranchment

Abstract: This paper analyzes the drivers of international waves in capital flows. We build on the literature on “sudden stops” and “bonanzas” to develop a new methodology for identifying episodes of extreme capital flow movements using quarterly data on gross inflows and gross outflows, differentiating activity by foreigners and domestics. We identify episodes of “surge”, “stop”, “flight”, and “retrenchment” and show how our approach yields fundamentally different results than the previous literature that used measures of net flows. Global factors, especially global risk, are the most important determinants of these episodes. Contagion, especially through trade and the bilateral exposure of banking systems, is important in determining stop and retrenchment episodes. Domestic macroeconomic characteristics are generally less important, although changes in domestic economic growth influence episodes caused by foreigners. We find little role for capital controls in reducing capital flow waves. The results help provide insights for different theoretical approaches explaining crises and capital flow volatility.

Efficiency-Adjusted Public Capital and Growth

Abstract: This paper constructs an efficiency-adjusted public capital stock series and re-examines the public capital and growth relationship for 52 developing countries. The results show that public capital is a significant contributor to economic growth. Although the estimated coefficient for the income share of public capital is larger in middle- than in low-income countries, the opposite is true for the marginal product of public capital. The quality of public investment, as measured by variables capturing the adequacy of project selection and implementation, are statistically significant in explaining variations in economic growth, a result mainly driven by low-income countries.

Government Expenditure on Human Capital Development: Implications for Economic Growth in Nigeria

Abstract: This study examines the relationship between human capital development efforts of the Government and economic growth in Nigeria. It seeks to find out the impact of government recurrent and capital expenditures on education and health in Nigeria and their effect on economic growth. The data used for the study are from secondary sources while the augmented Solow model was also adopted. The dependent variable in the model is the level of real output while the explanatory variables are government capital and recurrent expenditures on education and health, gross fixed capital formation and the labour force. The result shows that there exists a positive relationship between government recurrent expenditure on human capital development and the level of real output, while capital expenditure is negatively related to the level of real output. The study recommends appropriate channeling of the nation’s capital expenditure on education and health to promote economic growth.

Labor Migration, Human Capital Agglomeration and Regional Development in China

Abstract: We estimate a skill-based directional migration model to assess the effects of regional human capital agglomeration on labor migration in China. Upon accounting for regional differentials in skill-based compensation, cost-of-living, amenities, and the like, model estimates indicate the importance of destination human capital concentration to high-skill migrants. In marked contrast, low-skill migrants are found to have little incentive to co-locate with high-skill workers, likely reflecting institutional and other impediments to human capital investment among low-skill migrants. Research findings suggest the importance of human capital agglomeration benefits to disparate regional growth trajectories in China.

Barriers To Entry And Returns To Capital In Informal Activities: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract: This paper investigates the patterns of capital entry barriers and capital returns in informal Micro and Small Enterprises (MSE's) using a unique micro data set seven West-African countries. The author's findings support the view of a heterogeneous informal sector that is not primarily host to subsistence activities. While an assessment of initial investment identifies some informal activities with negligible entry barriers, a notable cost of entry is associated to most activities. The authors find very heterogeneous patterns of capital returns in informal MSE's. At very low levels of capital, marginal returns are extremely high- often exceeding 70 percent per month. Above a capital stock of 150 international dollars, marginal returns are found to be relatively low at around 4 to 7 percent monthly. The authors provide some evidence that the high returns at low capital stocks reflect high risks. At the same time, most MSE's appear to be severely capital constrained.

Schooling and Public Capital in a Model of Endogenous Growth

Abstract: This paper studies the allocation of public spending between education services and infrastructure investment in an endogenous growth model where public capital in infrastructure affects the process of human capital accumulation The balanced growth path is derived and the dynamics associated with a budget-neutral reallocation of spending from education to infrastructure are studied through numerical simulations The growth-maximizing tax rate is shown to depend only on the production technology (as in standard flow models of public expenditure), whereas the optimal share of infrastructure investment depends also on the “productiveness” of infrastructure (relative to education services) in the schooling technology

Capital-Labor Substitution, Structural Change and Growth

Abstract: There is a growing interest in multi-sector models that combine aggregate balanced growth, consistent with the well-known Kaldor facts, with systematic changes in the relative importance of each sector, consistent with the Kuznets facts. Although variations in the income elasticity of demand across goods played an important role in the initial attempts, recent models stress the role of supply-side factors in this process of structural change. Along these lines, Ngai and Pissarides (American Economic Review, 2008) focus in differential productivity growth across sectors while Acemoglu and Guerrieri (Journal of Political Economy, 2008) stress differences in factor proportions and capital deepening. We explore a general framework that encompasses, as special cases, these two supply-side mechanisms. Our model uncovers an additional driving force for structural change based on differences in the degree of capital-labor substitutability. When the flexibility to combine capital and labor varies across intermediate goods and the final sector is Cobb-Douglas, as the economy grows the fraction of capital (labor) allocated to the sector with high elasticity of substitution increases (decreases). We provide some casual evidence consistent with this new mechanism.

Human capital and productivity

Abstract: This paper surveys the empirical literature on human capital and productivity and summarizes the results of my own work on the subject. On balance, the available evidence suggests that investment in education has a positive, significant and sizable effect on productivity growth. According to my estimates, moreover, the social returns to investment in human capital are higher than those on physical capital in most EU countries and in many regions of Spain.

Regaining Control? Capital Controls and the Global Financial Crisis

Abstract: The global financial crisis has triggered a transformation in thinking and practice regarding the role of government in managing international capital flows. This paper traces and evaluates the re-emergence of capital controls as legitimate tools to promote financial stability. Whereas capital controls were seen as “orthodox” by the framers of the Bretton Woods system, they were shunned during the neo-liberal era that began in the late 1970s. There is now an emerging consensus that capital controls can play a legitimate role in promoting financial stability. From 2009 to early 2011 a number of developing nations resorted to capital controls to halt the appreciation of their currencies, and to pursue independent monetary policies to cool asset bubbles and inflation.A preliminary analysis of the effectiveness of these controls is conducted for the cases of Brazil, South Korea, and Taiwan. This analysis suggests that Brazil and Taiwan have been relatively successful in deploying controls, though South Korea’s success has been more modest. The fact that capital controls continue to yield positive results is truly remarkable given the fact that there has been little (or contrary) support for global coordination, and that many nations lack the necessary institutions for effective policies. The paper concludes by pointing to the need for more concerted global and national efforts to manage global capital flows for stability and growth.

A Theoretical Analysis of Capital Formation and Growth in Nigeria

Abstract: Our focus in this study is capital formation and growth The study applied Harrod –Domar model to Nigerian growth model and tested if it can work in Nigeria The ordinary least square multiple regression analytical method was used to examine the relationship between capital formation and economic growth The study tested the stationarity and co integration of Nigeria’s time series data and used an error correction mechanism to determine the long-run relationship among the variables examined The paper reviewed the literature and found that Harrod-Domar model has scarcely been used to test the relationship between capital formation and economic growth The empirical study found that the data were stationary and co integrated and showed that there is a significant relationship between capital formation and economic growth in Nigeria The results supported the Harrod-Domar model which proved that the growth rate of national income will directly or positively be related to saving ratio and capital formation (ie the more an economy is able to save-and invest-out of given GNP, the greater will be the growth of that GDP) The econometric results suggested the need for the government to continue to encourage savings, create conducive investment climate and improve the infrastructural base of the economy to boost capital formation and promote sustainable growth

The role of human capital in china's total factor productivity growth: a cross-province analysis

Abstract: This paper studies the role of human capital in China's provincial total factor productivity (TFP) growth over 1985–2004. The stochastic frontier approach is employed to measure the productivity growth of Chinese provinces. Human capital is measured both qualitatively and quantitatively. In particular, enrolment rates at various levels of schooling are used to represent human capital composition. After controlling for endogeneity, we find that human capital has significant and positive effects on the TFP growth of Chinese provinces. However, when education quality is incorporated, productivity growth appears to be significantly enhanced by quality improvements in primary education only. Regional impacts of human capital are found to differ at various levels of schooling. In the eastern region of China, productivity growth is significantly associated with secondary education. TFP growth in the central region is mainly promoted by primary and university education. Yet in the western region, primary education plays the most prominent role.

Effectiveness of Capital Controls in Selected Emerging Markets in the 2000s

Abstract: This paper estimates the effectiveness of capital controls in response to inflow surges in Brazil, Colombia, Korea, and Thailand in the 2000s. Controls are generally associated with a decrease in inflows and a lengthening of maturities, but the relationship is not statistically significant in all cases, and the effects are temporary. Controls are more successful in providing room for monetary policy than dampening currency appreciation pressures. We argue that the macroeconomic impact of capital controls depends on the extensiveness of the policy, the level of capital market development, the support provided by other policies, and the persistence of capital flows.

Risky Human Capital and Alternative Bankruptcy Regimes for Student Loans

Abstract: In a heterogeneous life cycle economy with human capital accumulation, the option to discharge student loans under a liquidation regime helps alleviate some of the risk of investing in human capital. However, exclusion from borrowing is especially costly for high school graduates with low ability and human capital, for whom the gains from this insurance option are large. Replacing liquidation with reorganization induces significant allocational consequences across education groups. Overall, reorganization improves welfare relative to liquidation. Poor high school graduates with low ability and human capital benefit the most. However, an economy with partial dischargeability is desirable on welfare grounds.

Human Capital and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Pakistan

Abstract: Human capital is generally considered as a positive contributor in the economic growth. In this study, we estimate this relationship using time series data of Pakistan for the period 1978 to 2007. A health adjusted education indicator for human capital is used in the standard CobbDouglas production function confirms the long run positive relationship between human capital and economic growth in Pakistan. Sensitivity analysis was also performed in order to check the robustness of the initial findings. The estimation results supported the findings of the previous studies that human capital is positively related to growth and also that the results are robust. The health adjusted education indicator was found to be a highly significant determinant of economic growth, which indicates that both the health and education sectors should be given special attention in order to ensure long run economic growth.

A sectoral analysis of Italy's development : 1861 -2010

Abstract: Italy‘s economic growth over its 150 years of unified history did not occur at a steady pace nor was it balanced across sectors. Relying on an entirely new input (labour and capital) database by us built and presented in the Appendix, together with new Banca d‘Italia estimates of GDP by sector, this paper evaluates the different labour productivity growth trends within the Italian economy‘s sectors, as well as the contribution of structural change to productivity growth. Italy‘s performance is then set in an international context: a comparison of sectoral labour productivity growth rates and levels within a selected sample of countries (UK, US, Germany, Japan, India) allows us to better time, quantify and gauge the causes of Italy‘s catching-up process and subsequent more recent slowdown. Finally, the paper analyses the proximate sources of Italy‘s growth, relative to the other countries, in a standard growth accounting framework, in an attempt also to disentangle the contribution of both total factor productivity growth and capital deepening to the country‘s labour productivity dynamics.

Capital Regulation and Tail Risk

Abstract: The paper studies risk mitigation associated with capital regulation, in a context where banks may choose tail risk assets. We show that this undermines the traditional result that higher capital reduces excess risk-taking driven by limited liability. Moreover, higher capital may have an unintended effect of enabling banks to take more tail risk without the fear of breaching the minimal capital ratio in non-tail risky project realizations. The results are consistent with stylized facts about pre-crisis bank behavior, and suggest implications for the optimal design of capital regulation.

Financial Deepening, Capital Inflows and Economic Growth Nexus in Tanzania: A Multivariate Model

Abstract: In this study the dynamic causal relationship between financial deepening and economic growth is examined using a multivariate model. Unlike the majority of the previous studies, the current study includes foreign capital inflows as an intermittent variable between financial deepening and economic growth, thereby creating a simple trivariate model. Using the newly introduced ARDL-bounds testing procedure, the study finds a distinct unidirectional causal flow from economic growth to financial depth in Tanzania. This applies irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short run or in the long run. Other results show that there is a bi-directional causality between financial development and foreign capital inflows, and a prima-facie unidirectional causality from foreign capital inflows to economic growth. The study, therefore, concludes that financial development in Tanzania follows growth, irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in a static or dynamic formulation.

What Drives Different Types of Capital Flows and their Volatilities in Developing Asia

Abstract: Understanding the determinants of capital inflows is essential to designing an effective policy framework to manage volatile capital flows and their disruptive potential. This paper aims to identify factors that explain the size and volatility of various types of capital flows to developing Asia, vis-a-vis other emerging market economies. The estimates for a panel dataset show that per capita income growth, trade openness, and change in stock market capitalization are important determinants of capital inflows to developing Asia. Trade openness increases the volatility of all types of capital inflows; while change in stock market capitalization, global liquidity growth and institutional quality lowers the volatility. A regional factor plays an important role in determining the size and volatility of capital inflows in emerging Europe and emerging Latin America, suggesting that regional economic cooperation and policy coordination may be an important element in designing a policy framework to manage capital...

Labor Productivity vs. Minimum Wage Level

Abstract: Recognition of the abstract nature of capital has liberated some new possibilities for alternative human capital research. Human capital, that is to say the human ability of doing work, is under the authority of all fundamental laws established in respect of the general notion of capital as spontaneous, and possessing random diffusion and limited growth. The phenomenon of human capital’s natural dispersion is a starting point for the theory of minimum wage, which ought to be sufficient to counterbalance the natural thinning out of the initial human capital of an employee. In practice, the legal minimum wage is fixed at different levels, and sometimes it is very low. Labor productivity is one fundamental factor that enables the establishment of a proper minimum wage level. Each human capital is vanquished by spontaneous and random diffusion, which averages 8% of the initial capital. Therefore the 8% rule is applicable to each employee no matter how educated and experienced he or she is. The results show that the level and fairness of the legal minimum wages is conditioned by labor productivity measured by ratio Q. This ratio should be at least 3.0 so the minimum wage could set off spontaneous random diffusion of employee’s human capital.

Should the US have locked heaven's door? Reassessing the benefits of postwar immigration

Abstract: This paper examines the economic impact of the second great immigration wave (1945–2000) on the US economy. Our analysis relies on a computable general equilibrium model combining the major interactions between immigrants and natives (labor market impact, fiscal impact, capital deepening, endogenous education, endogenous inequality). Contrary to recent studies, we show that immigration induced important net gains and small redistributive effects among natives. According to our simulations, the postwar US immigration is beneficial for all natives cohorts and all skill groups. Nevertheless, the gains would have been larger if the US had conducted a more selective immigration policy.

Ageing, Government Budgets, Retirement, and Growth

Abstract: We analyze the short and long run effects of demographic ageing—increased longevity and reduced fertility—on per-capita growth. The OLG model captures direct effects, working through adjustments in the savings rate, labor supply, and capital deepening, and indirect effects, working through changes of taxes, government spending components and the retirement age in politico-economic equilibrium. Growth is driven by capital accumulation and productivity increases fueled by public investment. The closed-form solutions of the model predict taxation and the retirement age in OECD economies to increase in response to demographic ageing and per-capita growth to accelerate. If the retirement age were held constant, the growth rate in politico-economic equilibrium would essentially remain unchanged, due to a surge of social security transfers and crowding out of public investment.

Revisiting the Cambridge Capital Theory Controversies: A Historical and Analytical Study

Abstract: This book deals with the Cambridge capital theory controversies both from a historical and from an analytical standpoint. In the first part the author addresses the basic analytical and methodological issues underlying the neoclassical theory, with special emphasis on how the problem of a measure of capital arises within the marginalist theory of value and distribution. The second part surveys the most relevant contributions to the Cambridge debates in the light of the salient results of ‘reswitching’ and ‘reverse capital deepening’, and shows how the implications of these results, which touch the principle of factor substitution, brought about different strategies pursued by neoclassical scholars to overcome these theoretical problems. The book concludes that since the results of this debate touch the foundations of the theory, and hence are of a general character, it is hard to accept that the contemporary versions of the theory are free of capital problems, while at the same time the Cambridge controversies are absent in the current literature used for training economics students. The book should therefore be useful to the undergraduate and graduate students, as well as to scholars devoted to the History of Economic Analysis.

International Capital Flows to Emerging and Developing Countries: National and Global Determinants

Abstract: This paper examines international capital flows to emerging and developing countries. We assess whether commonalities exist, the permanence of shocks to commonalities and their determinants. Also, we consider individual country coherence with global capital flows and we measure the extent of co-movements in the volatility of capital flows. Our results suggest there are commonalities in capital inflows, although aggregate or disaggregate capital flows respond differently to shocks. We find that the US long run real interest rate is an important determinant of global capital flows, and real commodity prices are relevant but to a lesser extent. We also find a role for human capital in explaining why some countries can successfully ride the wave of financial globalisation.