Showing papers on "Cash flow forecasting published in 1981"

Note-Prediction Intervals for Warranty Reserves and Cash Flows

Abstract: This paper presents estimates of cash flows associated with a given warranty policy. Included in the results are prediction intervals for warranty reserves and cash flows. A numerical example is given to illustrate these results.

A network model of insurance company cash flow management

Abstract: Cash flow management activities of property-casualty insurance companies deal with both insurance underwriting operations and investment portfolio pursuits. For the greatest overall efficiency, these two dimensions require simultaneous consideration and coordination to effect the optimum strategy for each. The complexities involved in managing the joint cash flow are such that the judgmental methods or heuristic guidelines often employed are inadequate to investigate properly the various tradeoffs. Analytical techniques, such as various forms of general linear and nonlinear programming, have been proposed to aid in these investigations, but are of little operational value because of problem size. In other applications, network analysis has been able to overcome this type of difficulty. Hence, in this paper an application of a network model to the problem of managing the overall cash flow of a medium sized property-casualty insurance company is described. The model allows for coordination of the two dimensions, and an example situation is indicated.

A Cash Flow Model of Rational Housing Tenure Choice

Abstract: This paper develops a model of housing costs in a cash flow framework. The cash flow approach allows both the consumption and investment aspects of tenure choice to be analyzed. By solving the model for the rental flow equivalent to any owning situation, we can determine whether or not a household would buy or rent from an economic perspective. The results are very sensitive to the household's income, the expected duration of occupancy, the mortgage interest rate, and inflation expectations. The results suggest that “rule-of-thumb” generalizations about tenure choice are often ill-founded, and that studies of tenure choice need to explicitly consider the interaction of income, taxes, length of occupancy and expectations.

An Inventory-Theoretic Approach to School District Cash Management:

Abstract: Working capital management is an important aspect of school district financial management. In this analysis, two models of cash flow manage ment derived from inventory control theory are compared with the heuristic approach employed by an illustrative school district. The models offer a means for optimizing the revenue school districts receive from the investment of excess funds. The model also has the potential for reducing district costs in cash flow management.

Solvency, Financial Statements, and the Importance of Cash-Flow Information:

Abstract: The statement of changes in financial position, while useful to firms operating within an earlier financial environment, has become an anachronism today. The authors recommend a new financial statement—one that reflects changes in cash flows, rather than changes in working capital

The use of comprehensive cash flow analysis as a basis for risk measurement and determination of debt capacity

Abstract: (1981). The use of comprehensive cash flow analysis as a basis for risk measurement and determination of debt capacity. Investment Analysts Journal: Vol. 10, No. 18, pp. 59-60.

Interpretation and integration of economic efficiency criteria through use of projected cash flow statements

Abstract: This paper uses the projected cash flow statements (PCFS) to interpret various economic efficiency criteria used in selection of a project. In the process, the article brings out the relationships between IRR, payback period and breakeven analysis. PCFS are also used to derive an ‘internal’ indicator of riskiness of a project.

A Control-Theoretic Approach to the Portfolio Selection Problem Including Cash Balance

Abstract: Due to fluctuations in influx and outflux of liquid means as well as in value and revenue of their portfolio titles, institutional investors have to monitor their short and middle range investment policy continuously. In considering a pure capital investment company (e.g. a mutual fund, insurance company, pensionary fund) with a flow of payments derived from its financial plan (e.g. administrative costs, dividends, changes in equity) the corporate policy is reflected essentially by the dynamics of the portfolio and liquid means. Every portfolio decision on the other hand will affect (up to random disturbances) the future investment framework via induced changes in the revenue flow as well as the liquidity status due to transfer costs. Thus an optimal dynamic portfolio selection procedure for maximizing the expected final wealth over a finite interval has to take into consideration the future reinvestment and revenue possibilities. Determining the middle range corporate policy of a capital investment company therefore requires in general the simultaneous solution of a stochastic dynamic portfolio selection and cash balance problem.(Financial transactions are supposed to be effected using an overdrawable current account, henceforth referred to as “cash”.)