Topic
Causal loop diagram
About: Causal loop diagram is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 790 publications have been published within this topic receiving 17553 citations.
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Book•
01 Jan 2000
TL;DR: Requirements for the effective use of system dynamics are discussed and a successful application to a difficult business issue is illustrated.
Abstract: Introduction Part I. Perspective and Process 1. Learning In and About Complex Systems 2. System Dynamics In Action 3. The Modeling Process 4. Structure and Behavior of Dynamic Systems Part II. Tools for Systems Thinking 5. Causal Loop Diagrams 6. Stocks and Flows 7. Dynamics of Stocks and Flows 8. Closing the Loop: Dynamics of Simple Structures Part III. The Dynamics of Growth 9. S-Shaped Growth: Epidemics, Innovation Diffusion, and the Growth of New Products 10. Path Dependence and Positive Feedback Part IV. Tools for Modeling Dynamic Systems 11. Delays 12. Coflows and Aging Chains 13. Modeling Decision Making 14. Forming Non-linear Relationships Part V. Instability and Oscillation 15. Modeling Human Behavior: Bounded Rationality or Rational Expectations? 16. Forecasts and Fudge Factors: Modeling Expectation Formation 17. Supply Chains and the Origin of Oscillations 18. Managing Supply Chains in Manufacturing 19. The Labor Supply Chain and the Origin of Business Cycles 20. The Invisible Hand Sometimes Shakes: Commodity Cycles Part VI. Validation and Model Testing 21. Truth and Beauty Part VII. Commencement 22. Challenges for the Future Appendix A: Numerical Integration Appendix B: Noise References Index
6,808 citations
TL;DR: This work portrays these systems as Self-Organizing Holarchic Open (SOHO) systems and interpret their behaviours and structures with reference to non-equilibrium thermodynamics: holons, propensities and canons; and information and attractors.
491 citations
TL;DR: It is argued that, in order to understand the sources of and the solutions to modern problems, linear and mechanistic thinking must give way to non-linear and organic thinking, more commonly referred to as systems thinking, which operates in a whole-system fashion.
447 citations
Book•
13 Jul 2007
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a new approach to modelling, based on causal loop diagrams, to analyze the dynamics and performance of a business and its performance through time in the context of a fishery.
Abstract: About the Author. Foreword. Preface and Acknowledgements. How to Use This Book. Chapter 1: The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling. Introduction. A New Approach to Modelling. The Puzzling Dynamics of International Fisheries. Model of a Natural Fishery. Operating a Simple Harvested Fishery. Harvesting in Bonavista, Newfoundland: A Thought Experiment. A Start on Analysing Dynamics and Performance Through Time. Saving Bonavista: Using Simulation to Devise a Sustainable Fishery. Dynamic Complexity and Performance Through Time. Preview of the Book and Topics Covered. Appendix: Archive Materials from World Dynamics. References. Chapter 2: Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking. Ways of Interpreting Situations in Business and Society. A Start on Causal Loop Diagrams. Structure and Behaviour Through Time: Feedback Loops and the Dynamics of a Slow- to-Respond Shower. From Events to Dynamics and Feedback: Drug-related Crime. Purpose of Causal Loop Diagrams: A Summary. Feedback Structure and Dynamics of a Technology-Based Growth Business. Causal Loop Diagrams: Basic Tips. References. Chapter 3: Modelling Dynamic Systems. Asset Stock Accumulation. The Coordinating Network. Modelling Symbols in Use: A Closer Look at Drug-related Crime. Equation Formulations. Experiments with the Model of Drug-related Crime. Benefits of Model Building and Simulation. References. Chapter 4: World of Showers. Getting Started. Inside World of Showers. Simulations of World of Showers B. References. Chapter 5: Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building. An Overview of the Modelling Process. Employment and Production Instability: Puzzling Performance Over Time and Computations in Production Control. Modelling Workforce Management and Factory Production Dynamics. Equation Formulations in Workforce Management. Chronic Cyclicality in Employment and Production and How to Cure It. Modelling for Learning and Soft Systems. Appendix 1: Model Communication and Policy Structure Diagrams. Appendix 2: The Dynamics of Information Smoothing. References. Chapter 6: The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion. Stocks and Flows in New Product Adoption: A Conceptual Diffusion Model. The Bass Model: An Elegant Special Case of a Diffusion Model. A Variation on Diffusion: The Rise of Low-Cost Air Travel in Europe. Strategy and Simulation of Growth Scenarios. Conclusion. Appendix: More About the Fliers Model. References. Chapter 7: Managing Business Growth. A Conceptual Model of Market Growth and Capital Investment. Formulation Guidelines for Portraying Feedback Structure. An Information Feedback View of Management and Policy. Policy Structure and Formulations for Sales Growth. Policy Structure and Formulations for Limits to Sales Growth. Policy Structure and Formulations for Capital Investment. Simulation Experiments. Redesign of the Investment Policy. Policy Design, Growth and Dynamic Complexity. Conclusion. Appendix: Gain of a Reinforcing Loop. References. Chapter 8: Industry Dynamics: Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers. Problem Articulation: Puzzling Dynamics of Oil Price. Model Development Process. A Closer Look at the Stakeholders and Their Investment Decision making. Connecting the Pieces: A Feedback Systems View. A Simple Thought Experiment: Green Mindset and Global Recession. Using the Model to Generate Scenarios. Devising New Scenarios. The Oil Producers' Microworld. References. Chapter 9: Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling. Urban Dynamics: Growth and Stagnation in Cities. Medical Workforce Dynamics and Patient Care. Fishery Dynamics and Regulatory Policy. Conclusion. Appendix: Alternative Simulation Approaches. References. Chapter 10: Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning. Mental Models, Transitional Objects and Formal Models. Models of Business and Social Systems. Tests for Building Confidence in Models. Model Confidence Building Tests in Action: A Case Study in Fast-Moving Consumer Goods. Model Structure Tests and the Soap Industry Model. Equation Formulation Tests and the Soap Industry Model. Model Behaviour Tests and Fit to Data. Summary of Confidence Building Tests. Conclusion: Model Fidelity and Usefulness. References. Index.
369 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine and discuss performance measurement, performance indicators and associated improvement initiatives, as typically applied in public sector organisations, and examine the implications revealed by this model within the context of performance management and system dynamics.
Abstract: Presents, from a systemic perspective, an examination and discussion of performance measurement, performance indicators and associated improvement initiatives, as typically applied in public sector organisations. Such mechanisms are usually implemented as a causal loop which is established between perceived performance and resulting actions, thereby constituting a form of feedback control. Within this context a two‐dimensional matrix model is postulated in which the independent dimensions are the source of control and the nature of the resultant control‐action. The paper examines the implications revealed by this model within the context of performance management and system dynamics. The potential role of influence diagrams and dynamic simulation models is thereby introduced as a potential means of unravelling the complex behaviour which can often arise in the presence of such interactive cause‐effect loops. A number of typical examples, drawn from within the public sector, are invoked to illustrate the discussion.
336 citations