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Showing papers on "Climate change published in 1988"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the global climate effects of time-dependent atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variations are simulated by NASA-Goddard's three-dimensional climate model II, which possesses 8 x 10-deg horizontal resolution, for the cases of a 100-year control run and three different atmospheric composition scenarios in which trace gas growth is respectively a continuation of current exponential trends, a reduced linear growth, and a rapid curtailment of emissions due to which net climate forcing no longer increases after the year 2000.
Abstract: The global climate effects of time-dependent atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variations are simulated by NASA-Goddard's three-dimensional climate model II, which possesses 8 x 10-deg horizontal resolution, for the cases of a 100-year control run and three different atmospheric composition scenarios in which trace gas growth is respectively a continuation of current exponential trends, a reduced linear growth, and a rapid curtailment of emissions due to which net climate forcing no longer increases after the year 2000. The experiments begin in 1958, run to the present, and encompass measured or estimated changes in CO2, CH4, N2O, chlorofluorocarbons, and stratospheric aerosols. It is shown that the greenhouse warming effect may be clearly identifiable in the 1990s.

936 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jul 1988-Nature
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate the possible responses of northeastern North American forests to a warmer and generally drier climate by driving a linked forest productivity/soil process model with climate model predictions corresponding to a doubling of CO2.
Abstract: Climate changes resulting from increases in atmospheric CO2 are expected to alter forest productivity and species distributions. But forest response to climate change depends in part on changes in soil water and nitrogen availability which limit tree growth. Here we report an investigation into the possible responses of northeastern North American forests to a warmer and generally drier climate by driving a linked forest productivity/soil process model with climate model predictions corresponding to a doubling of CO2. The greatest changes occurred at the current boreal/cool temperate forest border. Simulated productivity and biomass increased on soils that retained adequate water for tree growth and decreased on soils with inadequate water. Simulated changes in vegetation composition altered soil nitrogen availability, which in turn amplified the vegetation changes. The simulated responses of the forests were results of a positive feedback between carbon and nitrogen cycles, bounded by negative constraints of soil moisture availability and temperature.

569 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
15 Apr 1988-Science
TL;DR: The greenhouse theory of climate change, which states that the climate system will be restored to equilibrium by a warming of the surfacetroposphere system and a cooling of the stratosphere, has reached the crucial stage of verification.
Abstract: Since the dawn of the industrial era, the atmospheric concentrations of several radiatively active gases have been increasing as a result of human activities. The radiative heating from this inadvertent experiment has driven the climate system out of equilibrium with the incoming solar energy. According to the greenhouse theory of climate change, the climate system will be restored to equilibrium by a warming of the surfacetroposphere system and a cooling of the stratosphere. The predicted changes, during the next few decades, could far exceed natural climate variations in historical times. Hence, the greenhouse theory of climate change has reached the crucial stage of verification. Surface warming as large as that predicted by models would be unprecedented during an interglacial period such as the present. The theory, its scope for verification, and the emerging complexities of the climate feedback mechanisms are discussed.

336 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jul 1988-Nature
TL;DR: This article used petrographic thin sections to determine the annual production of charcoal within a lake catchment in northwestern Minnesota over the past 750 years providing the long and high-resolution record required to elucidate fire regimes.
Abstract: Of all the impacts of projected climate change on forest ecosystems, perhaps the most difficult to forecast is the potential for altered fire frequency and intensity. Fire regimes in forests are poorly understood for lack of long-term evidence. Here I used petrographic thin sections to determine the annual production of charcoal within a lake catchment in northwestern Minnesota over the past 750 years providing the long and high-resolution record required to elucidate fire regimes. Maximum abundance and frequency occurred in the warm, dry fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. Fire importance decreased dramatically with the onset or intensification of the 'little ice age' about AD 1600. Fire cycles with harmonics corresponding to multiples of the 22-year drought cycles of the region and increased fire frequency at times when early successional stands were breaking up, suggest a synergistic influence of climate and fuel accumulation. The anomalously warm, dry twentieth-century climate would have produced substantially different fire regimes from the previous century in the absence of fire suppression.

274 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the use of model-based global data sets of atmospheric circulation for studying fundamental dynamical and physical processes is discussed, focusing on limitations of the available modelbased data sets, and the most comprehensive technique for integrating space and in situ observations to produce this type of data set would be a four-dimensional data assimilation system with a realistic physical model of the type employed in operational numerical weather prediction.
Abstract: The use of model-based global data sets of atmospheric circulation for studying fundamental dynamical and physical processes is discussed, focusing on limitations of the available model-based data sets. Data from the Global Weather Experiment in 1979 were analyzed by two authorized level IIIb data centers in 1980 and in 1981. The analyses led to difference in data-sparse regions such as the tropics. Study areas which can be addressed by an internally-consistent long-term multivariate data set for the atmospheric circulation are considered, including mean climate, forcing for the ocean models, global hydrological cycle, atmospheric energetics, intraseasonal variability, land surface processes, and structure and variability of vertical velocity, divergence, and diabatic heating. It is concluded that the most comprehensive technique for integrating space and in situ observations to produce this type of data set would be a four-dimensional data assimilation system with a realistic physical model of the type employed in operational numerical weather prediction.

181 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
16 Jun 1988-Nature
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present strong evidence from analysis of the Vostok ice core that CH4 concentrations increased from 0.34 to 0.62 p.p.m.v. between the end of the penultimate ice age and the following interglacial, about 160-120 kyr BP.
Abstract: The atmospheric CH4 increase from ∼0.7 to 1.68 p.p.m.v. over about the past 300 years which has been documented from analysis of air trapped in ice cores1–4 and from tropospheric measurements (see ref. 5 for example) is attributed to anthropogenic modifications of the CH4 cycle. The concern about this increase is due to the radiatively and chemically active nature of CH4. Here we present strong evidence from analysis of the Vostok ice core, that CH4 concentrations increased from 0.34 to 0.62 p.p.m.v. between the end of the penultimate ice age and the following interglacial, about 160–120 kyr BP. This CH4 change may be explained by considering the effect of the climatic change on the CH4 cycle. Its contribution (including chemical feedback) to the global climatic warming is estimated to be about 25% of that due to CO2.

169 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
20 May 1988-Science
TL;DR: The analysis suggests that a terrestrially induced climate instability is a viable mechanism for causing rapid environmental change and biotic turnover in earth history, but the relation is not so strong that other sources of variance can be excluded.
Abstract: Slowly changing boundary conditions can sometimes cause discontinuous responses in climate models and result in relatively rapid transitions between different climate states Such terrestrially induced abrupt climate transitions could have contributed to biotic crises in earth history Ancillary events associated with transitions could disperse unstable climate behavior over a longer but still geologically brief interval and account for the stepwise nature of some extinction events There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of abrupt climate change, and a comparison of paleoclimate data with the Phanerozoic extinction record indicates that climate and biotic transitions often coincide However, more stratigraphic information is needed to precisely assess phase relations between the two types of transitions The climate-life comparison also suggests that, if climate change is significantly contributing to biotic turnover, ecosystems may be more sensitive to forcing during the early stages of evolution from an ice-free to a glaciated state Our analysis suggests that a terrestrially induced climate instability is a viable mechanism for causing rapid environmental change and biotic turnover in earth history, but the relation is not so strong that other sources of variance can be excluded

165 citations


Book
01 Jan 1988
TL;DR: In this article, the sensitivity of Australia to possible climate change induced by the greenhouse effect is explored, and it is shown that Australia is more sensitive to climate change than other countries.
Abstract: This important book explores the sensitivity of Australia to possible climate change induced by the greenhouse effect.

161 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, it is suggested that sea surface temperature perturbations may be used, in conjunction with separation of clear and overcast regions within a model, as a surrogate climatic change for the purpose of understanding and intercomparing atmospheric climate feedback processes.
Abstract: Based upon the need to understand differences between general circulation model projections of climatic change due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, the present study first categorizes reasons for these differences and presents suggestions for the design of future climate model simulations, so that these specific categories may directly be addressed and understood. Following this, and based upon tutorial use of a radiative-convective model, it is suggested that sea surface temperature perturbations may be used, in conjunction with separation of clear and overcast regions within a model, as a surrogate climatic change for the purpose of understanding and intercomparing atmospheric climate feedback processes. This approach is illustrated through use of the Oregon State University/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory general circulation model, with particular attention being paid to interpreting cloud/climate interactions within the model.

152 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This model is stable against ice albedo catastrophe even when the ice line occurs at low latitudes, and differs from energy balance models that lack the coupling to the geochemical cycle of carbon.
Abstract: We study the interactions between the geochemical cycles of carbon and long-term changes in climate. Climate change is studied with a simple, zonally averaged energy balance climate model that includes the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide explicitly. The geochemical model balances the rate of consumption of carbon dioxide in silicate weathering against its release by volcanic and metamorphic processes. The silicate weathering rate is expressed locally as a function of temperature, carbon dioxide partial pressure, and runoff. The global weathering rate is calculated by integrating these quantities over the land area as a function of latitude. Carbon dioxide feedback stabilizes the climate system against a reduction in solar luminosity and may contribute to the preservation of equable climate on the early Earth, when solar luminosity was low. The system responds to reduced land area by increasing carbon dioxide partial pressure and warming the globe. Our model makes it possible to study the response of the system to changing latitudinal distribution of the continents. A concentration of land area at high latitudes leads to high carbon dioxide partial pressures and high global average temperature because weathering of high-latitude continents is slow. Conversely, concentration of the continents at low latitudes yields a cold globe and ice at low latitudes, a situation that appears to be representative of the late Precambrian glacial episode. This model is stable against ice albedo catastrophe even when the ice line occurs at low latitudes. In this it differs from energy balance models that lack the coupling to the geochemical cycle of carbon.

123 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
01 Oct 1988-Nature
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a 300-kyr time series for organic carbon mass accumulation rate from four sediment cores, two each from the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic, and show that orbital forcing of global climate has strongly affected the rate of organic carbon burial.
Abstract: Over the past ten years, sedimentary geochemists have noted that climate changes associated with Pleistocene glaciations have had a pronounced effect on the rate of organic carbon burial found in the tropical oceans1–4. In particular, two to five times higher organic carbon accumulation rates have been observed for the 18 kyr BP glacial maximum than for the Holocene in several short sediment cores from both oceans (see Fig. 1). Here I present 300-kyr time series for organic carbon mass accumulation rate from four sediment cores, two each from the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic, and show that orbital forcing of global climate has strongly affected the rate of organic carbon burial in the equatorial oceans.


Book
31 Jan 1988
TL;DR: Only a few years ago, extraterrestrial forcing of the earth's climate machine was considered a model of last resort, to be used only when all other mechanisms, internal or stochastic, failed.
Abstract: Only a few years ago, extraterrestrial forcing of the earth's climate machine was considered a model of last resort, to be used only when all other mechanisms, internal or stochastic, failed. With the general acceptance of the Milankovich orbital model of climate fluctuations on the 104- to 105-year time scale has come a lessening of the reluctance to discuss external mechanisms as factors in climate change. This was apparent at a recent conference entitled Climate: History, Periodicity, and Predictability (in honor of Rhodes W. Fairbridge on his 70th birthday) held May 21–23, 1984, at Barnard College of Columbia University, New York City, which brought together 80 specialists from at least 12 countries. At this conference, discussions of causal mechanisms ranged from the purely terrestrial to those involving the sun and moon, the dynamics of the solar system, and even the rhythms of the galaxy.

Posted ContentDOI
TL;DR: This paper explored possible economic implications for U.S. agriculture, with particular reference to the West, from a series of spatial equilibrium model analyses, and concluded that climate change is not a food security issue for the United States.
Abstract: Global climate change from increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide and other trace gases is an issue of international concern. Adverse climatic conditions are expected to reduce crop yields and alter the demand for and supply of water. These potential adjustments imply economic costs to agriculture and its constituents. This paper explores possible economic implications for U.S. agriculture, with particular reference to the West. Results from a series of spatial equilibrium model analyses suggest that climate change is not a food security issue for the United States. However, regional adjustments in agricultural production and associated resource use are expected. This implies additional pressure in rural communities. Environmental quality reductions

Journal Article
TL;DR: The global importance of tropical forest soils in the atmospheric carbon cycle and its susceptibility to alteration by human land-management practices implies that the solution to the human-induced climate change problem lies in a combination of combustion source controls, conservation of existing tropical rain forests, and large-scale upgrading of productivity on currently degraded tropical soils as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Measurements of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane released from Amazonian soils show that tropical deforestation acts on a variety of time scales to exacerbate the atmospheric greenhouse problem. The global importance of tropical forest soils in the atmospheric carbon cycle and its susceptibility to alteration by human land-management practices implies that the solution to the human-induced climate change problem lies in a combination of combustion source controls, conservation of existing tropical rain forests, and large-scale upgrading of productivity on currently degraded tropical soils. (authors).


Journal ArticleDOI
12 May 1988-Nature
TL;DR: In this paper, an abrupt change in the rate and character of sedimentation in the South China Sea at the close of the last glacial period was demonstrated. But it is difficult to determine whether this abrupt change was confined to high-latitude regions or whether it was global.
Abstract: Abrupt changes in climatic conditions have been seen at high latitudes in the North Atlantic1 and the Antarctic2,3 at 13 kyr BP. It is important to determine whether this abrupt change was confined to high-latitude regions or whether it was global. Here we present results demonstrating an abrupt change in the rate and character of sedimentation in the South China Sea at the close of the last glacial period. Radiocarbon dating and its position in the oxygen isotope shift suggest that this change may be coincident with the changes found at high latitudes.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the role of ocean heat transport in both paleoclimates and possible future climatic change is investigated, and it is shown that the effect of a change in ocean heat transfer may be moderated by a tendency of the atmosphere to compensate by changing its heat transport.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A deep ice core extracted at Vostok station, Antarctica, provides a record of atmospheric climate and CO2 that is representative of global changes over the last glacial-interglacial cycle (160,000 years).
Abstract: A deep ice core extracted at Vostok station, Antarctica, provides a record of atmospheric climate and CO2 that is representative of global changes over the last glacial-interglacial cycle (160,000 years). Spectral analysis of the isotope temperature profile confirms the role of astronomical forcing in Quaternary climate changes. There is a remarkably close association between the climatic and CO2 records. This association indicates a fundamental link between the climate system and the carbon cycle, although the processes involved are not clearly understood. A simple statistical comparison of the Vostok temperature record with various potential forcing factors suggests that CO2 concentrations may have played a major role in the observed climatic record, in addition to insolation inputs exerted locally and at northern hemisphere latitudes (where continental ice sheets are growing and decaying at the glacial-interglacial time scale). We propose that CO2 and other atmospheric chemical changes may have had an important effect on Quaternary climate by providing, for the large 100-kyr oscillation, the necessary amplification of the orbital forcing at that frequency.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A review of the various data bases used in evaluating volcanic events and associated climatic change can be found in this article, where the authors provide a brief historical overview of the problem and highlight some pitfalls involved in using available information, including the possibility of "volcanic winters, or severe eruption-induced coolings".
Abstract: What is the relationship between volcanic eruptions and climate change? More than 200 years after the connection was first proposed, it remains a thorny question. This article provides a brief historical overview of the problem and a review of the various data bases used in evaluating volcanic events and associated climatic change. We use the term “climate” to describe changes in the atmosphere over wide regions for periods of several months and longer. We use “weather” to describe shorter-term, variable atmospheric fluctuations experienced over more restricted areas. We appraise the present state of knowledge and highlight some pitfalls involved in using available information. Cautiously, we suggest future avenues for study, including the possibility of “volcanic winters,” or severe eruption-induced coolings.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The nature of climate impacts and adjustment in water supply and flood management is discussed in this paper, and a case study of water manager response to climate fluctuation in California's Sacramento Basin is presented.
Abstract: The nature of climate impacts and adjustment in water supply and flood management is discussed, and a case study of water manager response to climate fluctuation in California's Sacramento Basin is presented. The case illuminates the effect on climate impact and response of traditional management approaches, the dynamic qualities of maturing water systems, socially imposed constraints, and climate extremes. A dual pattern of crisisresponse and gradual adjustment emerges, and specific mechanisms for effecting adjustment of water management systems are identified. The case study, and broader trends in U.S. water development, suggest that oversized structural capacity, the traditional adjustment to climate variability in water resources, may prove less feasible in the future as projects become smaller and new facilities are delayed by economic and environmental concerns.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In 1984, Environment Canada, Ontario Region, with financial and expert support from the Canadian Climate Program, initiated an interdisciplinary pilot study to investigate the potential impact, on Ontario, of a climate scenario which might be anticipated under doubling of atmospheric C02 conditions as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: In 1984, Environment Canada, Ontario Region, with financial and expert support from the Canadian Climate Program, initiated an interdisciplinary pilot study to investigate the potential impact, on Ontario, of a climate scenario which might be anticipated under doubling of atmospheric C02 conditions There were many uncertainties involved in the climate scenario development and the impacts modeling Time and resource constraints restricted this study to one climate scenario and to the selection of several available models that could be adapted to these impact studies The pilot study emphasized the approach and process required to investigate potential regional impacts in an interdisciplinary manner, rather than to produce a forecast of the future The climate scenario chosen was adapted from experimental model results produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), coupled with current climate normals Gridded monthly mean temperatures and precipitation were then used to develop proje


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a procedure to estimate the potential climatic effects of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on agricultural production is illustrated, combining use of atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) and process-oriented crop models.
Abstract: A procedure to estimate the potential climatic effects of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on agricultural production is illustrated. The method combines use of atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) and process-oriented crop models. Wheat and corn (maize) yields in three important North American grain cropping regions are treated. Combined use of these two types of models can provide insights into the impacts of climate changes at the level of plant physiology, and potential means by which agricultural production practices may adapt to these changes. Specific agronomic predictions are found to depend critically on the details of the projected climate change. Uncertainties in the specification of the doubled-CO2 climate by the GCM, particularly with respect to precipitation, dictate that agricultural predictions derived from them at this time must be regarded only as illustrative of the impact assessment method.


Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 1988
TL;DR: In this paper, the effects of changes in climate under the GISS 2 × CO2 scenario (considered in Section 3) on the productivity of boreal forests were evaluated and some of the results reported here will be used as inputs to a further set of experiments concerned with the effect of productivity changes on forestry as an economic activity.
Abstract: The purpose of this section is to evaluate the effects of changes in climate under the GISS 2 × CO2 scenario (considered in Section 3) on the productivity of boreal forests. Some of the results reported here will be used as inputs to a further set of experiments concerned with the effect of productivity changes on forestry as an economic activity (see Section 6). Together Sections 5 and 6 provide a case study (at a hemispheric scale) of the advantages and limitations of linking biophysical and economic models in attempts to assess the effects of climatic change.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors summarize the results of a review with respect to the possible effects of carbon dioxide on agriculture and conclude that agriculture can be affected in two broad (but not necessarily mutually exclusive) ways: by the direct effects of C02 on plants and by the effects of changes in climate.
Abstract: INCREASING CONCENTRATIONS of atmospheric carbon dioxide (C02) and other radiatively active 'greenhouse' gases may lead to large changes in the global climate, possibly with profound effects on global ecosystems. If the results of climate models are correct, the world will, in the matter of a century, become warmer than at any time during the last 100000 years or more. Recently, the International Meteorological Institute (IMI) in Stockholm, with joint support from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) carried out a scientific review (Bolin et al., 1986) of the 'greenhouse effect' and its environmental consequences. The purpose of this article is to summarize the results of that review with respect to the possible effects on agriculture. Agriculture can be affected in two broad (but not necessarily mutually exclusive) ways: by the direct effects of C02 on plants, and by the effects of changes in climate. For each, what information do we have for impact assessment? What do the results of existing studies tell us? Let us examine the direct effects of C02 first.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a simulation methodology for tropical broadleaved forests is proposed to simulate the impact of tropical broadleaf forest clearing on the land surface of the United States and tropical grassland.
Abstract: Tropical deforestation is a current anthropogenic change to the land surface. Tropical forests are known to be changing rapidly, but the rate and extent of deforestation and the resulting secondary cover, as would be needed for quantitative projections of future change, are difficult to establish now. Also necessary for climate simulations is a description of the micrometeorological processes within the forest canopy, including especially the processes of evapotranspiration and interception. Past General Circulation Model sensitivity studies have established the potential major significance of perturbation of surface energy processes. Climate modeling sensitivity studies and ecological systems studies have highlighted the importance of the surface energy balance and the hydrological cycle over continental areas. However, predicting even the local, immediate effects of replacing tropical broadleaved forest with impoverished grassland is difficult because the land-surface parameterization schemes used in most climate models have been inadequate. A wide range of parameterization schemes in past studies of the climate change with tropical deforestation have led to divergent conclusions as to the consequences. The most recent such study has attempted to include more realistic processes than past studies, including separate submodels for soil and forest canopy. Results from the simulations of this study are reviewed. With attempts to simulate realistically the climatic impact of tropical deforestation, several issues must be considered. What is the rate and extent of the deforestation? What land cover replaces the forest and what physical properties of the forest and its replacement are most important for the simulation? Are the parameterizations of these properties plausibly correct and are the model ‘predictions’ explicable in terms of these properties? A simulation methodology that treats these latter questions is proposed.


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper showed that a substantial portion of these fluctuations, even those which are remarkably unusual, are merely manifestations of a stochastic process which possesses weak year-to-year persistence as viewed from a posteriori perspective.
Abstract: The issue of whether the secular climate (twentieth century) is stationary or changing to some new semi-permanent state is clouded by the presence of so-called ‘climate fluctuations’. The twentieth century climate record of the United States reveals a substantial number of decadal fluctuations which occur in all seasons for both temperature and precipitation. Recent examples of such behavior include changes in winter and summer temperature variability and increases in transition season precipitation. Statistical evidence suggests that a substantial portion of these fluctuations, even those which are remarkably unusual, are merely manifestations of a stochastic process which possesses weak year-to-year persistence as viewed from an a posteriori perspective. The implications of this result are particularly important with respect to the formulation of physical causes of the fluctuations. The results emphasize the desirability of well-founded clearly-stated a priori theories of climate change as well as the limited usefulness of widely used climate normals.