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Showing papers on "Climate change published in 2022"


MonographDOI
24 May 2022
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors present a comprehensive assessment of our understanding of global warming of 1.5°C, future climate change, potential impacts and associated risks, emission pathways, and system transitions consistent with 1.0°C global warming, and strengthening the global response to climate change in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.
Abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report is a comprehensive assessment of our understanding of global warming of 1.5°C, future climate change, potential impacts and associated risks, emission pathways, and system transitions consistent with 1.5°C global warming, and strengthening the global response to climate change in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

2,820 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
University of Exeter1, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry2, Tyndall Centre3, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory4, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research5, University of Maryland, College Park6, CICERO Center for International Climate Research7, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research8, University of Reading9, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences10, Goddard Space Flight Center11, Flanders Marine Institute12, Food and Agriculture Organization13, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research14, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration15, University of East Anglia16, Japan Meteorological Agency17, ETH Zurich18, National Institute for Environmental Studies19, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology20, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement21, Tula Foundation22, Hertie Institute for Clinical Brain Research23, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology24, Wageningen University and Research Centre25, Tsinghua University26, University of Western Sydney27, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences28, University of Florida29, Center for Neuroscience and Regenerative Medicine30, Woods Hole Research Center31, Michigan State University32, Tianjin University33, Auburn University34, Jilin Medical University35, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology36, Imperial College London37, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques38, University of Groningen39, Tohoku University40, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich41, Bank for International Settlements42, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace43, Environment Canada44, North West Agriculture and Forestry University45, Northwest A&F University46, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory47, Stanford University48, Utrecht University49
TL;DR: Friedlingstein et al. as mentioned in this paper presented and synthesized datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties, including fossil CO2 emissions, land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models.
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

343 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , the authors summarized some of the scientific works presented in the Sustainable Energy and Environmental Protection (SEEP) conference-held at the University of the West of Scotland, UK, 2018.
Abstract: The current editorial summarized some of the scientific works presented in the Sustainable Energy and Environmental Protection (SEEP) conference-held at the University of the West of Scotland, UK, 2018. The selected work was directly related to the scope of the Renewable, Sustainable Energy Reviews (RSER) journal. During the conference activities, experts from all around the world in the subjects of: renewable energy, climate change, optimization, and economics presented and discussed the progress made in renewable energy sources, as well as the new strategies for protecting the environment from the hazards connected with fossil fuel utilization. The methods presented in the conference focused on several directions: the development of efficient energy conversion systems with low/no environmental impacts; the suggested policies to widespread renewable energies; the restriction in the emission of greenhouse gases, and the recent progresses in CO2 capture. This editorial focused on the renewable energy developments and their positive effect on the climate change, and briefly summarized the accepted manuscripts in this issue.

291 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070.
Abstract: At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals1,2. However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover-a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.

232 citations


MonographDOI
18 Nov 2022
TL;DR: The most comprehensive and up-to-date scientific assessment of the multiple interactions between climate change and land, assessing climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, is presented in this paper .
Abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) is the most comprehensive and up-to-date scientific assessment of the multiple interactions between climate change and land, assessing climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. It assesses the options for governance and decision-making across multiple scales. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

205 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
09 Sep 2022-Science
TL;DR: This paper provided a revised shortlist of global core and regional impact tipping points and their temperature thresholds, including the tipping point thresholds, time scales, and impacts of climate change, and provided an updated assessment of the most important climate tipping elements and their potential tipping points.
Abstract: Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global “core” tipping elements and regional “impact” tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies. Description Getting tipsy Climate tipping points are conditions beyond which changes in a part of the climate system become self-perpetuating. These changes may lead to abrupt, irreversible, and dangerous impacts with serious implications for humanity. Armstrong McKay et al. present an updated assessment of the most important climate tipping elements and their potential tipping points, including their temperature thresholds, time scales, and impacts. Their analysis indicates that even global warming of 1°C, a threshold that we already have passed, puts us at risk by triggering some tipping points. This finding provides a compelling reason to limit additional warming as much as possible. —HJS Global warming greater than 1.5°C could trigger multiple climate tipping points. INTRODUCTION Climate tipping points (CTPs) are a source of growing scientific, policy, and public concern. They occur when change in large parts of the climate system—known as tipping elements—become self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold. Triggering CTPs leads to significant, policy-relevant impacts, including substantial sea level rise from collapsing ice sheets, dieback of biodiverse biomes such as the Amazon rainforest or warm-water corals, and carbon release from thawing permafrost. Nine policy-relevant tipping elements and their CTPs were originally identified by Lenton et al. (2008). We carry out the first comprehensive reassessment of all suggested tipping elements, their CTPs, and the timescales and impacts of tipping. We also highlight steps to further improve understanding of CTPs, including an expert elicitation, a model intercomparison project, and early warning systems leveraging deep learning and remotely sensed data. RATIONALE Since the original identification of tipping elements there have been substantial advances in scientific understanding from paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies. Additional tipping elements have been proposed (e.g., parts of the East Antarctic ice sheet) and the status of others (e.g., Arctic summer sea ice) has been questioned. Observations have revealed that parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet may have already passed a tipping point. Potential early warning signals of the Greenland ice sheet, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and Amazon rainforest destabilization have been detected. Multiple abrupt shifts have been found in climate models. Recent work has suggested that up to 15 tipping elements are now active (Lenton et al., 2019). Hence it is timely to synthesize this new knowledge to provide a revised shortlist of potential tipping elements and their CTP thresholds. RESULTS We identify nine global “core” tipping elements which contribute substantially to Earth system functioning and seven regional “impact” tipping elements which contribute substantially to human welfare or have great value as unique features of the Earth system (see figure). Their estimated CTP thresholds have significant implications for climate policy: Current global warming of ~1.1°C above pre-industrial already lies within the lower end of five CTP uncertainty ranges. Six CTPs become likely (with a further four possible) within the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C warming, including collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, die-off of low-latitude coral reefs, and widespread abrupt permafrost thaw. An additional CTP becomes likely and another three possible at the ~2.6°C of warming expected under current policies. CONCLUSION Our assessment provides strong scientific evidence for urgent action to mitigate climate change. We show that even the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C is not safe as 1.5°C and above risks crossing multiple tipping points. Crossing these CTPs can generate positive feedbacks that increase the likelihood of crossing other CTPs. Currently the world is heading toward ~2 to 3°C of global warming; at best, if all net-zero pledges and nationally determined contributions are implemented it could reach just below 2°C. This would lower tipping point risks somewhat but would still be dangerous as it could trigger multiple climate tipping points. The location of climate tipping elements in the cryosphere (blue), biosphere (green), and ocean/atmosphere (orange), and global warming levels at which their tipping points will likely be triggered. Pins are colored according to our central global warming threshold estimate being below 2°C, i.e., within the Paris Agreement range (light orange, circles); between 2 and 4°C, i.e., accessible with current policies (orange, diamonds); and 4°C and above (red, triangles).

189 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , the authors review the evidence of climate change impacts on mental health in Africa and demonstrate that there is need for more contextual awareness and research in this area in Africa to mitigate or forestall potential mental health crises in the near future.
Abstract: It is now widely acknowledged that low- and middle-income countries in Africa are among global hotspots for high vulnerability to climate change, despite making comparatively low contributions to this phenomenon. Climate change has been shown to affect mental health as a result of disruption of social and economic structures that populations depend on for good health, including mental health. After decades of neglect, recent efforts by governments such as in Kenya to address the twin issues of climate change and mental health demonstrate the growing importance of these issues. Here we briefly review the evidence of climate change impacts on mental health in Africa and demonstrate that there is need for more contextual awareness and research in this area in Africa to mitigate or forestall potential mental health crises in the near future. We recommend systematic efforts to support funding for research and interventions at the nexus between climate change and mental health in Africa, and urge institutions and governments in Africa to begin paying attention to this emerging threat to the health of African populations.

186 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article showed that after exceptional drought severity in 2021, 19% of which is attributable to anthropogenic climate trends, 2000-2021 was the driest 22-yr period since at least 800.
Abstract: A previous reconstruction back to 800 ce indicated that the 2000–2018 soil moisture deficit in southwestern North America was exceeded during one megadrought in the late-1500s. Here, we show that after exceptional drought severity in 2021, ~19% of which is attributable to anthropogenic climate trends, 2000–2021 was the driest 22-yr period since at least 800. This drought will very likely persist through 2022, matching the duration of the late-1500s megadrought. Southwestern North America has been experiencing lower than average precipitation and higher temperatures since 2000. This emerging megadrought, spanning 2000–2021, has been the driest 22-year period since the year 800 and 19% of the drought severity in 2021 can be attributed to climate change.

179 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The impact of climate change on health, social, and economic issues was highlighted in the 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown as mentioned in this paper , where the authors pointed out that climate change is increasingly affecting the foundations of human health and wellbeing, exacerbating the vulnerability of the world's populations to concurrent health threats.

165 citations



Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , a sectorial assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation approaches worldwide in the aforementioned sectors and the associated economic costs is presented, where secondary data is used to identify sustainability issues such as environmental, social, and economic viability.
Abstract: Climate change is a long-lasting change in the weather arrays across tropics to polls. It is a global threat that has embarked on to put stress on various sectors. This study is aimed to conceptually engineer how climate variability is deteriorating the sustainability of diverse sectors worldwide. Specifically, the agricultural sector’s vulnerability is a globally concerning scenario, as sufficient production and food supplies are threatened due to irreversible weather fluctuations. In turn, it is challenging the global feeding patterns, particularly in countries with agriculture as an integral part of their economy and total productivity. Climate change has also put the integrity and survival of many species at stake due to shifts in optimum temperature ranges, thereby accelerating biodiversity loss by progressively changing the ecosystem structures. Climate variations increase the likelihood of particular food and waterborne and vector-borne diseases, and a recent example is a coronavirus pandemic. Climate change also accelerates the enigma of antimicrobial resistance, another threat to human health due to the increasing incidence of resistant pathogenic infections. Besides, the global tourism industry is devastated as climate change impacts unfavorable tourism spots. The methodology investigates hypothetical scenarios of climate variability and attempts to describe the quality of evidence to facilitate readers’ careful, critical engagement. Secondary data is used to identify sustainability issues such as environmental, social, and economic viability. To better understand the problem, gathered the information in this report from various media outlets, research agencies, policy papers, newspapers, and other sources. This review is a sectorial assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation approaches worldwide in the aforementioned sectors and the associated economic costs. According to the findings, government involvement is necessary for the country’s long-term development through strict accountability of resources and regulations implemented in the past to generate cutting-edge climate policy. Therefore, mitigating the impacts of climate change must be of the utmost importance, and hence, this global threat requires global commitment to address its dreadful implications to ensure global sustenance.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , the authors carried out a systematic search for empirical examples about the impacts of ten climatic hazards sensitive to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on each known human pathogenic disease.
Abstract: It is relatively well accepted that climate change can affect human pathogenic diseases; however, the full extent of this risk remains poorly quantified. Here we carried out a systematic search for empirical examples about the impacts of ten climatic hazards sensitive to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on each known human pathogenic disease. We found that 58% (that is, 218 out of 375) of infectious diseases confronted by humanity worldwide have been at some point aggravated by climatic hazards; 16% were at times diminished. Empirical cases revealed 1,006 unique pathways in which climatic hazards, via different transmission types, led to pathogenic diseases. The human pathogenic diseases and transmission pathways aggravated by climatic hazards are too numerous for comprehensive societal adaptations, highlighting the urgent need to work at the source of the problem: reducing GHG emissions.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , the authors outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda.
Abstract: Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers—be usefully synthesized into an “integrated catastrophe assessment”? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.

Journal ArticleDOI
Pierre Friedlingstein1, Sönke Zaehle2, Corinne Le Quéré3, Christian Rödenbeck2, Bronte Tilbrook, Henry C. Bittig4, Denis Pierrot5, Louise Chini6, Jan Ivar Korsbakken7, Nicolas Bellouin8, Toste Tanhua9, Benjamin Poulter10, Peter Landschützer11, Francesco N. Tubiello12, Judith Hauck13, Are Olsen14, Vivek K. Arora15, Colm Sweeney16, Almut Arneth17, Marion Gehlen18, Hiroyuki Tsujino19, Daniel P. Kennedy20, Yosuke Iida19, Luke Gregor21, Jiye Zeng22, George C. Hurtt6, Nicolas Mayot23, Giacomo Grassi24, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka22, Frédéric Chevallier18, Clemens Schwingshackl7, Wiley Evans25, Meike Becker26, Thomas Gasser27, Xu Yue28, Katie Pocock25, Stephanie Falk29, Thanos Gkritzalis11, Naiqing Pan30, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx31, Fraser Holding32, Carlos Gustavo Halaburda, Guanghong Zhou33, Peter Angele34, Jianling Chen1, e6gehqc68135, Carlos Muñoz Pérez23, Hiroshi Niinami36, Zongwe Binesikwe Crystal Hardy, Samuel Bourne37, Ralf Wüsthofen38, Paulo Brito, Christian Liguori39, Juan A. Martin-Ramos, Rattan Lal, kensetyrdhhtml2mdcom40, Staffan Furusten, Luca Miceli41, Eric Horster16, V. Miranda Chase, Field Palaeobiology Lab30, Living Tree Cbd Gummies, Lifeng Qin34, Yong Tang42, Annie Phillips43, Nathalie Fenouil26, mark, Karina Querne de Carvalho44, Satya Wydya Yenny, Maja Bak Herrie, Silvia Ravelli45, Andreas Gerster46, Denise Hottmann47, Wui-Lee Chang, Andreas Lutz48, Olga D. Vorob'eva49, Pallavi Banerjee1, Verónica Undurraga50, Jovan Babić, Michele D. Wallace9, Mònica Ginés-Blasi, 에볼루션카지노51, James Kelvin29, Christos Kontzinos1, Охунова Дилафруз Муминовна, Isabell Diekmann, Emily Burgoyne16, Vilemina Čenić52, Naomi Gikonyo26, CHAO LUAN21, Benjamin Pfluger53, Benjamin Pfluger54, A. J. Shields, Kobzos, Laszlo55, Adrian Langer56, Stuart L. Weinstein55, Abdullah ÖZÇELİK57, Yi Chen58, Anzhelika Solodka59, Valery Vasil'evich Kozlov60, Н.С. Рыжук, Roshan Vasant Shinde, Dr Sandeep Haribhau Wankhade, Dr Nitin Gajanan Shekapure, Mr Sachin Shrikant …61, Mylene Charon7, David Seibt62, Kobi Peled, None Rahmi52 
University of Exeter1, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry2, Tyndall Centre3, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research4, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory5, University of Maryland, College Park6, CICERO Center for International Climate Research7, University of Reading8, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences9, Goddard Space Flight Center10, Flanders Marine Institute11, Food and Agriculture Organization12, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research13, Geophysical Institute14, University of Victoria15, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration16, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology17, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement18, Japan Meteorological Agency19, Indiana University20, ETH Zurich21, National Institute for Environmental Studies22, University of East Anglia23, European Commission24, Tula Foundation25, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research26, Hertie Institute for Clinical Brain Research27, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology28, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich29, Auburn University30, Wageningen University and Research Centre31, University of Western Sydney32, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences33, Tsinghua University34, University of Florida35, Center for Neuroscience and Regenerative Medicine36, Woods Hole Research Center37, University of Alaska Fairbanks38, Princeton University39, Michigan State University40, University of Washington41, Appalachian State University42, Sun Yat-sen University43, Imperial College London44, University of Groningen45, University of Tennessee46, Washington University in St. Louis47, Jilin Medical University48, Tohoku University49, Rutgers University50, Centre for Research on Ecology and Forestry Applications51, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace52, North West Agriculture and Forestry University53, Northwest A&F University54, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory55, Xi'an Jiaotong University56, Stanford University57, National Center for Atmospheric Research58, University of Edinburgh59, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology60, Utrecht University61, Oak Ridge National Laboratory62
TL;DR: Friedlingstein et al. as mentioned in this paper presented and synthesized data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties, including fossil CO2 emissions, land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models.
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors highlight recent advancements in understanding of the impact of climate change (warming and drought) on plant-microbiome interactions and on their ecological functions from genome to ecosystem scales.
Abstract: Climate change is increasing global temperatures and the frequency and severity of droughts in many regions. These anthropogenic stresses pose a significant threat to plant performance and crop production. The plant-associated microbiome modulates the impacts of biotic and abiotic stresses on plant fitness. However, climate change induced change in composition and activities of plant microbiomes, can affect host functions. Here, we highlight recent advancements in our understanding of the impact of climate change (warming and drought) on plant-microbiome interactions and on their ecological functions from genome to ecosystem scales. We identify knowledge gaps, propose new concepts, and make recommendations for future research directions. It is proposed that in short-term (years to decades) adaptation of plants to climate change is mainly driven by the plant microbiome, while long-term (century to millennia) adaptation of plants will be driven equally by eco-evolutionary interactions between the plant microbiome and its host. A better understanding of the response of plant and its microbiome interactions to climate change and the ways in which microbiomes can mitigate the negative impacts will better inform predictions of climate change impacts on primary productivity and aid in developing management and policy tools to improve the resilience of plant systems.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , the authors explore the extent and costs of observed and predicted infrastructure damage associated with permafrost degradation, and the methods available to mitigate such adverse consequences, including convection embankments, thermosyphons and piling foundations.
Abstract: The warming and thawing of ice-rich permafrost pose considerable threat to the integrity of polar and high-altitude infrastructure, in turn jeopardizing sustainable development. In this Review, we explore the extent and costs of observed and predicted infrastructure damage associated with permafrost degradation, and the methods available to mitigate such adverse consequences. Permafrost change imposes various threats to infrastructure, namely through warming, active layer thickening and thaw-related hazards such as thermokarst and mass wasting. These impacts, often linked to anthropogenic warming, are exacerbated through increased human activity. Observed infrastructure damage is substantial, with up to 80% of buildings in some Russian cities and ~30% of some road surfaces in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau reporting damage. Under anthropogenic warming, infrastructure damage is projected to continue, with 30–50% of critical circumpolar infrastructure thought to be at high risk by 2050. Accordingly, permafrost degradation-related infrastructure costs could rise to tens of billions of US dollars by the second half of the century. Several mitigation techniques exist to alleviate these impacts, including convection embankments, thermosyphons and piling foundations, with proven success at preserving and cooling permafrost and stabilizing infrastructure. To be effective, however, better understanding is needed on the regions at high risk.

Journal ArticleDOI
LeptiCell1
TL;DR: In this article , the authors quantify changes of Amazon resilience by applying established indicators (for example, measuring lag-1 autocorrelation) to remotely sensed vegetation data with a focus on vegetation optical depth (1991-2016).
Abstract: Abstract The resilience of the Amazon rainforest to climate and land-use change is crucial for biodiversity, regional climate and the global carbon cycle. Deforestation and climate change, via increasing dry-season length and drought frequency, may already have pushed the Amazon close to a critical threshold of rainforest dieback. Here, we quantify changes of Amazon resilience by applying established indicators (for example, measuring lag-1 autocorrelation) to remotely sensed vegetation data with a focus on vegetation optical depth (1991–2016). We find that more than three-quarters of the Amazon rainforest has been losing resilience since the early 2000s, consistent with the approach to a critical transition. Resilience is being lost faster in regions with less rainfall and in parts of the rainforest that are closer to human activity. We provide direct empirical evidence that the Amazon rainforest is losing resilience, risking dieback with profound implications for biodiversity, carbon storage and climate change at a global scale.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper established a geo-referenced global database documenting climate-induced mortality events spanning all tree-supporting biomes and continents, from 154 peer-reviewed studies since 1970.
Abstract: Abstract Earth’s forests face grave challenges in the Anthropocene, including hotter droughts increasingly associated with widespread forest die-off events. But despite the vital importance of forests to global ecosystem services, their fates in a warming world remain highly uncertain. Lacking is quantitative determination of commonality in climate anomalies associated with pulses of tree mortality—from published, field-documented mortality events—required for understanding the role of extreme climate events in overall global tree die-off patterns. Here we established a geo-referenced global database documenting climate-induced mortality events spanning all tree-supporting biomes and continents, from 154 peer-reviewed studies since 1970. Our analysis quantifies a global “hotter-drought fingerprint” from these tree-mortality sites—effectively a hotter and drier climate signal for tree mortality—across 675 locations encompassing 1,303 plots. Frequency of these observed mortality-year climate conditions strongly increases nonlinearly under projected warming. Our database also provides initial footing for further community-developed, quantitative, ground-based monitoring of global tree mortality.



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TL;DR: In this paper , the authors describe how ML can be a powerful tool in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping society adapt to a changing climate, and identify high impact problems where existing gaps can be filled by ML, in collaboration with other fields.
Abstract: Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, and we, as machine learning (ML) experts, may wonder how we can help. Here we describe how ML can be a powerful tool in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping society adapt to a changing climate. From smart grids to disaster management, we identify high impact problems where existing gaps can be filled by ML, in collaboration with other fields. Our recommendations encompass exciting research questions as well as promising business opportunities. We call on the ML community to join the global effort against climate change.

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TL;DR: In this paper , the authors offer an understanding of climate coloniality that is theorized and grounded in lived experiences, by weaving through global governance structures, discursive framings, imagined solutions, and interventions.
Abstract: The extremely uneven and inequitable impacts of climate change mean that differently-located people experience, respond to, and cope with the climate crisis and related vulnerabilities in radically different ways. The coloniality of climate seeps through everyday life across space and time, weighing down and curtailing opportunities and possibilities through global racial capitalism, colonial dispossessions, and climate debts. Decolonizing climate needs to address the complexities of colonialism, imperialism, capitalism, international development, and geopolitics that contribute to the reproduction of ongoing colonialities through existing global governance structures, discursive framings, imagined solutions, and interventions. This requires addressing both epistemic violences and material outcomes. By weaving through such mediations, I offer an understanding of climate coloniality that is theorized and grounded in lived experiences.

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TL;DR: In this paper , the authors synthesize knowledge of drought-related tree mortality under a warming and drying atmosphere with rising atmospheric CO2, and outline the mechanisms leading to mortality, including carbon starvation and hydraulic failure.
Abstract: Drought-associated woody-plant mortality has been increasing in most regions with multi-decadal records and is projected to increase in the future, impacting terrestrial climate forcing, biodiversity and resource availability. The mechanisms underlying such mortality, however, are debated, owing to complex interactions between the drivers and the processes. In this Review, we synthesize knowledge of drought-related tree mortality under a warming and drying atmosphere with rising atmospheric CO2. Drought-associated mortality results from water and carbon depletion and declines in their fluxes relative to demand by living tissues. These pools and fluxes are interdependent and underlay plant defences against biotic agents. Death via failure to maintain a positive water balance is particularly dependent on soil-to-root conductance, capacitance, vulnerability to hydraulic failure, cuticular water losses and dehydration tolerance, all of which could be exacerbated by reduced carbon supply rates to support cellular survival or the carbon starvation process. The depletion of plant water and carbon pools is accelerated under rising vapour pressure deficit, but increasing CO2 can mitigate these impacts. Advancing knowledge and reducing predictive uncertainties requires the integration of carbon, water and defensive processes, and the use of a range of experimental and modelling approaches. Enhanced drought frequency and magnitude have impacted tree mortality, leading to multiple examples of regional-scale dieback. This Review outlines the mechanisms leading to mortality, including carbon starvation and hydraulic failure.


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TL;DR: In this paper , the authors show a 26.4% (24.1-29.1%) increase in US flood risk by 2050 due to climate change alone under RCP4.5.
Abstract: Abstract Current flood risk mapping, relying on historical observations, fails to account for increasing threat under climate change. Incorporating recent developments in inundation modelling, here we show a 26.4% (24.1–29.1%) increase in US flood risk by 2050 due to climate change alone under RCP4.5. Our national depiction of comprehensive and high-resolution flood risk estimates in the United States indicates current average annual losses of US$32.1 billion (US$30.5–33.8 billion) in 2020’s climate, which are borne disproportionately by poorer communities with a proportionally larger White population. The future increase in risk will disproportionately impact Black communities, while remaining concentrated on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Furthermore, projected population change (SSP2) could cause flood risk increases that outweigh the impact of climate change fourfold. These results make clear the need for adaptation to flood and emergent climate risks in the United States, with mitigation required to prevent the acceleration of these risks.


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TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors proposed a framework that integrates the system dynamics (SD) model, patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and integrated valuation of Ecosystem Service and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to dynamically simulate changes in land use/cover change (LUCC) and carbon storage (CS) at the city level based on SSP-RCP scenarios provided by the CMIP6.

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TL;DR: In this article , the authors present a stocktake of regional trends in fire weather and burned area during recent decades, and examine how fire activity relates to its bioclimatic and human drivers.
Abstract: Recent wildfire outbreaks around the world have prompted concern that climate change is increasing fire incidence, threatening human livelihood and biodiversity, and perpetuating climate change. Here, we review current understanding of the impacts of climate change on fire weather (weather conditions conducive to the ignition and spread of wildfires) and the consequences for regional fire activity as mediated by a range of other bioclimatic factors (including vegetation biogeography, productivity and lightning) and human factors (including ignition, suppression, and land use). Through supplemental analyses, we present a stocktake of regional trends in fire weather and burned area (BA) during recent decades, and we examine how fire activity relates to its bioclimatic and human drivers. Fire weather controls the annual timing of fires in most world regions and also drives inter‐annual variability in BA in the Mediterranean, the Pacific US and high latitude forests. Increases in the frequency and extremity of fire weather have been globally pervasive due to climate change during 1979–2019, meaning that landscapes are primed to burn more frequently. Correspondingly, increases in BA of ∼50% or higher have been seen in some extratropical forest ecoregions including in the Pacific US and high‐latitude forests during 2001–2019, though interannual variability remains large in these regions. Nonetheless, other bioclimatic and human factors can override the relationship between BA and fire weather. For example, BA in savannahs relates more strongly to patterns of fuel production or to the fragmentation of naturally fire‐prone landscapes by agriculture. Similarly, BA trends in tropical forests relate more strongly to deforestation rates and forest degradation than to changing fire weather. Overall, BA has reduced by 27% globally in the past two decades, due in large part to a decline in BA in African savannahs. According to climate models, the prevalence and extremity of fire weather has already emerged beyond its pre‐industrial variability in the Mediterranean due to climate change, and emergence will become increasingly widespread at additional levels of warming. Moreover, several of the major wildfires experienced in recent years, including the Australian bushfires of 2019/2020, have occurred amidst fire weather conditions that were considerably more likely due to climate change. Current fire models incompletely reproduce the observed spatial patterns of BA based on their existing representations of the relationships between fire and its bioclimatic and human controls, and historical trends in BA also vary considerably across models. Advances in the observation of fire and understanding of its controlling factors are supporting the addition or optimization of a range of processes in models. Overall, climate change is exerting a pervasive upwards pressure on fire globally by increasing the frequency and intensity of fire weather, and this upwards pressure will escalate with each increment of global warming. Improvements to fire models and a better understanding of the interactions between climate, climate extremes, humans and fire are required to predict future fire activity and to mitigate against its consequences.

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13 May 2022-Science
TL;DR: In this article , the authors developed a global analysis of satellite data to simultaneously monitor change in three highly interconnected intertidal ecosystem types (tidal flats, tidal marshes, and mangroves) from 1999 to 2019.
Abstract: Tidal wetlands are expected to respond dynamically to global environmental change, but the extent to which wetland losses have been offset by gains remains poorly understood. We developed a global analysis of satellite data to simultaneously monitor change in three highly interconnected intertidal ecosystem types—tidal flats, tidal marshes, and mangroves—from 1999 to 2019. Globally, 13,700 square kilometers of tidal wetlands have been lost, but these have been substantially offset by gains of 9700 km2, leading to a net change of −4000 km2 over two decades. We found that 27% of these losses and gains were associated with direct human activities such as conversion to agriculture and restoration of lost wetlands. All other changes were attributed to indirect drivers, including the effects of coastal processes and climate change. Description Global shifts in tidal wetlands Ecologically and economically important coastal wetlands are threatened by sea level rise and land use change. Murray et al. used high-resolution satellite imagery to assess the global extent of tidal wetlands and changes in wetland extent and distribution over the past two decades. They found that although over 13,000 square kilometers of tidal wetland have recently been lost, much of this decreasing extent has been offset by the creation of new wetlands. The greatest losses and gains were in tidal flats, but mangrove ecosystems showed the largest net decline in area globally. Direct human impacts on wetlands, including land transformation and restoration, are detectable from satellite imagery and account for 27% of wetland losses and gains. —BEL High-resolution satellite imagery reveals that substantial global losses of tidal wetlands are largely offset by new wetland formation.

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TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors conducted a systematic review of recent climatic changes and their effects on hydrological system changes in Xinjiang, China, which is characterized by a unique mountain-basin structure and fragile mountain-oasis-desert ecosystems.