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Climate change
About: Climate change is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 99222 publications have been published within this topic receiving 3572006 citations.
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TL;DR: The main conclusion can be drawn is that a degradation trend of drinking water quality in the context of climate change leads to an increase of at risk situations related to potential health impact.
777 citations
TL;DR: This article used regression tree analysis (RTA) to evaluate potential shifts for 80 individual tree species in the eastern United States and showed that roughly 30 species could expand their ranges and/or weighted importance at least 10%, while an additional 30 species would decrease by at least ten%, following equilibrium after a changed climate.
Abstract: Projected climate warming will potentially have profound effects on the earth's biota, including a large redistribution of tree species. We developed models to evaluate potential shifts for 80 individual tree species in the eastern United States. First, environmental factors associated with current ranges of tree species were assessed using geographic information systems (GIS) in conjunction with regression tree analysis (RTA). The method was then extended to better understand the potential of species to survive and/ or migrate under a changed climate. We collected, summarized, and analyzed data for climate, soils, land use, elevation, and species assemblages for .2100 counties east of the 100th meridian. Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) data for .100 000 forested plots in the East provided the tree species range and abundance information for the trees. RTA was used to devise prediction rules from current species-environment relationships, which were then used to replicate the current distribution as well as predict the future potential distri- butions under two scenarios of climate change with twofold increases in the level of at- mospheric CO2. Validation measures prove the utility of the RTA modeling approach for mapping current tree importance values across large areas, leading to increased confidence in the predictions of potential future species distributions. With our analysis of potential effects, we show that roughly 30 species could expand their range and/or weighted importance at least 10%, while an additional 30 species could decrease by at least 10%, following equilibrium after a changed climate. Depending on the global change scenario used, 4-9 species would potentially move out of the United States to the north. Nearly half of the species assessed (36 out of 80) showed the potential for the ecological optima to shift at least 100 km to the north, including seven that could move .250 km. Given these potential future distributions, actual species redistributions will be controlled by migration rates possible through fragmented landscapes.
777 citations
01 Jan 2014
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a regional context of Africa, Asia, and North America, and Central South America for small islands in the open oceans, including small islands and open oceans.
Abstract: 21. Regional context 22. Africa 23. Europe 24. Asia 25. Australasia 26. North America 27. Central South America 28. Polar regions 29. Small islands 30. Open oceans Annexes.
776 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors reviewed recent research progress in the climate changes and explored their impacts on the Plateau energy and water cycle, based on which a conceptualmodeltosynthesize these changes was proposed andurgent issues to be explored were summarized.
775 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a first-time continental, integrated analysis of possible impacts of global change (here defined as climate and water use change) on future flood and drought frequencies for the selected study area of Europe was presented.
Abstract: Most studies on the impact of climate change on regional water resources focus on long-term average flows or mean water availability, and they rarely take the effects of altered human water use into account. When analyzing extreme events such as floods and droughts, the assessments are typically confined to smaller areas and case studies. At the same time it is acknowledged that climate change may severely alter the risk of hydrological extremes over large regional scales, and that human water use will put additional pressure on future water resources. In an attempt to bridge these various aspects, this paper presents a first-time continental, integrated analysis of possible impacts of global change (here defined as climate and water use change) on future flood and drought frequencies for the selected study area of Europe. The global integrated water model WaterGAP is evaluated regarding its capability to simulate high and low-flow regimes and is then applied to calculate relative changes in flood and drought frequencies. The results indicate large ‘critical regions’ for which significant changes in flood or drought risks are expected under the proposed global change scenarios. The regions most prone to a rise in flood frequencies are northern to northeastern Europe, while southern and southeastern Europe show significant increases in drought frequencies. In the critical regions, events with an intensity of today's 100-year floods and droughts may recur every 10–50 years by the 2070s. Though interim and preliminary, and despite the inherent uncertainties in the presented approach, the results underpin the importance of developing mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change impacts on a continental scale.
774 citations