Climate change

About: Climate change is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 99222 publications have been published within this topic receiving 3572006 citations.

Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project

Abstract: This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research articles documenting co-ordinated work carried out within a 3-year European Union project ‘Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects’ (PRUDENCE). The main objective of the PRUDENCE project was to provide high resolution climate change scenarios for Europe at the end of the twenty-first century by means of dynamical downscaling (regional climate modelling) of global climate simulations. The first part of the issue comprises seven overarching PRUDENCE papers on: (1) the design of the model simulations and analyses of climate model performance, (2 and 3) evaluation and intercomparison of simulated climate changes, (4 and 5) specialised analyses of impacts on water resources and on other sectors including agriculture, ecosystems, energy, and transport, (6) investigation of extreme weather events and (7) implications of the results for policy. A paper summarising the related MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project is also included. The second part of the issue contains 12 articles that focus in more detail on some of the themes summarised in the overarching papers. The PRUDENCE results represent the first comprehensive, continental-scale intercomparison and evaluation of high resolution climate models and their applications, bringing together climate modelling, impact research and social sciences expertise on climate change.

The politics of climate change.

Abstract: Acknowledgements Introduction 1 Climate Change, Risk and Danger 2 Running Out, Running Down? 3 The Greens and After 4 The Track Record So Far 5 A Return to Planning? 6 Technologies and Taxes 7 The Politics of Adaptation 8 International Negotiations, the EU and Carbon Markets 9 The Geopolitics of Climate Change Afterword Notes References Index

Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections

Abstract: Scientific confidence in climate change effects is much higher for aspects related to global patterns of surface temperature, than for circulation. Circulation will remain hard to predict, necessitating a risk-based approach to decision making.

Climate and human influences on global biomass burning over the past two millennia

Abstract: Large, well-documented wildfires have recently generated worldwide attention, and raised concerns about the impacts of humans and climate change on wildfire regimes. However, comparatively little is known about the patterns and driving forces of global fire activity before the twentieth century. Here we compile sedimentary charcoal records spanning six continents to document trends in both natural and anthropogenic biomass burning for the past two millennia. We find that global biomass burning declined from AD 1 to ∼1750, before rising sharply between 1750 and 1870. Global burning then declined abruptly after 1870. The early decline in biomass burning occurred in concert with a global cooling trend and despite a rise in the human population. We suggest the subsequent rise was linked to increasing human influences, such as population growth and land-use changes. Our compilation suggests that the final decline occurred despite increasing air temperatures and population. We attribute this reduction in the amount of biomass burned over the past 150 years to the global expansion of intensive grazing, agriculture and fire management. A compilation of wildfire records spanning six continents and 2,000 years reveals global patterns in biomass burning to be temporally linked with changes in climate, population and land use. An abrupt decline in biomass burning beginning about 150 years ago may be related to the expansion of intensive grazing, agriculture and fire management activities.

Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year

Abstract: The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the most rapidly warming locations on Earth, but it has been difficult to establish whether continent-wide changes are comparable to the clear upward trend in global average temperature. This is because most of the continuous records from ice-sheet weather stations are coastal, providing little information on the continental interior. This problem is by-passed in a new reconstruction of Antarctic surface temperature trends for 1957–2006, based on satellite data (with good spatial coverage for a short period) and air temperatures from weather stations (for a long timescale), blended via an algorithm that estimates missing data points in climate fields. The resulting record, more reliable than previous gap-filling exercises, suggests that overall the continent is warming by about 0.1 °C per decade, with stronger warming in winter and spring and over West Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula is known to be warming rapidly, but the overall pattern of climate change for the full Antarctic continent has been uncertain. This work finds that the entire continent is warming at a rate of 0.12 ± 0.07 °C per decade, with stronger warming in winter and spring and over West Antarctica. Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades1. This pattern of temperature change has been attributed to the increased strength of the circumpolar westerlies, largely in response to changes in stratospheric ozone2. This picture, however, is substantially incomplete owing to the sparseness and short duration of the observations. Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 °C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring. Although this is partly offset by autumn cooling in East Antarctica, the continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend is positive. Simulations using a general circulation model reproduce the essential features of the spatial pattern and the long-term trend, and we suggest that neither can be attributed directly to increases in the strength of the westerlies. Instead, regional changes in atmospheric circulation and associated changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice are required to explain the enhanced warming in West Antarctica.