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Climate change
About: Climate change is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 99222 publications have been published within this topic receiving 3572006 citations.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate and if so, how, has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results.
Abstract: Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have altered, or will alter, in a changing climate has been subject of considerable debate. An overview of recent research indicates that greenhouse warming will cause stronger storms, on average, but a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones. Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate — and if so, how — has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies.
2,368 citations
University of Tasmania1, Yale University2, University of California, Santa Barbara3, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution4, University of São Paulo5, University of Cape Town6, South Dakota State University7, Columbia University8, California Institute of Technology9, University of Bristol10, United States Geological Survey11, University of California, Los Angeles12, University of California, Berkeley13, Monash University14, Brown University15, Ohio State University16, Royal Holloway, University of London17, University of Arizona18, VU University Amsterdam19, Arizona State University20
TL;DR: What is known and what is needed to develop a holistic understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system are reviewed, particularly in view of the pervasive impact of fires and the likelihood that they will become increasingly difficult to control as climate changes.
Abstract: Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.
2,365 citations
TL;DR: The authors argue that societies have inherent capacities to adapt to climate change, but these capacities are bound up in their ability to act collectively, and they argue that this capacity is limited by the nature of the agents of change, states, markets and civil society.
Abstract: The effects of observed and future changes in climate are spatially and socially differentiated. The impacts of future changes will be felt particularly by resource-dependent communities through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social systems. Given that the world is increasingly faced with risks of climate change that are at the boundaries of human experience3, there is an urgent need to learn from past and present adaptation strategies to understand both the processes by which adaptation takes place and the limitations of the various agents of change – states, markets, and civil society – in these processes. Societies have inherent capacities to adapt to climate change. In this article, I argue that these capacities are bound up in their ability to act collectively.
2,346 citations
10 Oct 2011
TL;DR: Climate change is expected to accelerate water cycles and thereby increase the available RFWR, which would slow down the increase of people living under water stress; however, changes in seasonal patterns and increasing probability of extreme events may offset this effect.
Abstract: Water is a naturally circulating resource that is constantly recharged. Therefore, even though the stocks of water in natural and artificial reservoirs are helpful to increase the available water resources for human society, the flow of water should be the main focus in water resources assessments. The climate system puts an upper limit on the circulation rate of available renewable freshwater resources (RFWR). Although current global withdrawals are well below the upper limit, more than two billion people live in highly water-stressed areas because of the uneven distribution of RFWR in time and space. Climate change is expected to accelerate water cycles and thereby increase the available RFWR. This would slow down the increase of people living under water stress; however, changes in seasonal patterns and increasing probability of extreme events may offset this effect. Reducing current vulnerability will be the first step to prepare for such anticipated changes.
2,345 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors summarized the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario and explored scenario variants that use RCP 8.5 as a baseline, and assume different degrees of greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce radiative forcing.
Abstract: This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE model for the development of the RCP8.5, we focus in this paper on two important extensions compared to earlier scenarios: 1) the development of spatially explicit air pollution projections, and 2) enhancements in the land-use and land-cover change projections. In addition, we explore scenario variants that use RCP8.5 as a baseline, and assume different degrees of greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce radiative forcing. Based on our modeling framework, we find it technically possible to limit forcing from RCP8.5 to lower levels comparable to the other RCPs (2.6 to 6 W/m2). Our scenario analysis further indicates that climate policy-induced changes of global energy supply and demand may lead to significant co-benefits for other policy priorities, such as local air pollution.
2,293 citations