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Climate change
About: Climate change is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 99222 publications have been published within this topic receiving 3572006 citations.
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TL;DR: The authors reviewed the developing body of evidence pertaining to shifts in the winter rainfall zone (WRZ) and the evolution of ideas that have been presented to explain the patterns observed, and divided the region into three separate axes, along the western and southern margins of the continent and across the interior into the Karoo and the Kalahari.
557 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, new and published climate model results are discussed which indicate that global warming favors increased rates of forest disturbance as a result of weather more likely to cause forest fires, convective wind storms, coastal flooding, and hurricanes.
Abstract: New and published climate-model results are discussed which indicate that global warming favors increased rates of forest disturbance as a result of weather more likely to cause forest fires, convective wind storms, coastal flooding, and hurricanes. New sensitivity tests carried out with a vegetation model indicate that climate-induced increases in disturbance could, in turn, significantly alter the total biomass and compositional response of forests to future warming. An increase in disturbance frequency is also likely to increase the rate at which natural vegetation responses to future climate change. The results reinforce the hypothesis that forests could be significantly altered by the first part of the next century. The modeling also confirms the potential utility of selected time series of fossil pollen data for investigating the poorly understood natural patterns of century-scale climate variability.
557 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a change in wintertime Mediterranean precipitation toward drier conditions has likely occurred over 1902-2010 whose magnitude cannot be reconciled with internal variability alone, and anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing are key attributable factors for increased drying, though the external signal explains only half of the drying magnitude.
Abstract: The land area surrounding the Mediterranean Sea has experienced 10 of the 12 driest winters since 1902 in just the last 20 years. A change in wintertime Mediterranean precipitation toward drier conditions has likely occurred over 1902–2010 whose magnitude cannot be reconciled with internal variability alone. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing are key attributable factors for this increased drying, though the external signal explains only half of the drying magnitude. Furthermore, sea surface temperature (SST) forcing during 1902–2010 likely played an important role in the observed Mediterranean drying, and the externally forced drying signal likely also occurs through an SST change signal.The observed wintertime Mediterranean drying over the last century can be understood in a simple framework of the region’s sensitivity to a uniform global ocean warming and to modest changes in the ocean’s zonal and meridional SST gradients. Climate models subjected to a uniform +0.5°C warming of th...
557 citations
TL;DR: A new ecosystem-based climate envelope modeling approach was applied to assess potential climate change impacts on forest communities and tree species, and local predictions of changes to tree species frequencies were generated as a basis for systematic surveys of biological response to climate change.
Abstract: A new ecosystem-based climate envelope modeling approach was applied to assess potential climate change impacts on forest communities and tree species. Four orthogonal canonical discriminant functions were used to describe the realized climate space for British Columbia's ecosystems and to model portions of the realized niche space for tree species under current and predicted future climates. This conceptually simple model is capable of predicting species ranges at high spatial resolutions far beyond the study area, including outlying populations and southern range limits for many species. We analyzed how the realized climate space of current ecosystems changes in extent, elevation, and spatial distribution under climate change scenarios and evaluated the implications for potential tree species habitat. Tree species with their northern range limit in British Columbia gain potential habitat at a pace of at least 100 km per decade, common hardwoods appear to be generally unaffected by climate change, and some of the most important conifer species in British Columbia are expected to lose a large portion of their suitable habitat. The extent of spatial redistribution of realized climate space for ecosystems is considerable, with currently important sub-boreal and montane climate regions rapidly disappearing. Local predictions of changes to tree species frequencies were generated as a basis for systematic surveys of biological response to climate change.
557 citations
Vienna University of Technology1, University of Potsdam2, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute3, University of Messina4, University of Split5, University of Padua6, University of Zagreb7, University of Bologna8, University of Naples Federico II9, Polytechnic University of Turin10, Moscow State University11, Dokuz Eylül University12, University of Bath13, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava14, Finnish Environment Institute15, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute16, University of Liverpool17, University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy18, Technical University of Madrid19, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ20, ETH Zurich21, Maynooth University22, Polish Academy of Sciences23, ODESSA24, University of Ljubljana25, Roma Tre University26, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate27, Polytechnic University of Tirana28, University of Belgrade29
TL;DR: Analysis of the timing of river floods in Europe over the past 50 years found clear patterns of changes in flood timing that can be ascribed to climate effects, and highlights the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.
Abstract: A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.
557 citations