Climate change

About: Climate change is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 99222 publications have been published within this topic receiving 3572006 citations.

Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations

Abstract: Comprehensive global climate models1 are the only tools that account for the complex set of processes which will determine future climate change at both a global and regional level. Planners are typically faced with a wide range of predicted changes from different models of unknown relative quality2,3, owing to large but unquantified uncertainties in the modelling process4. Here we report a systematic attempt to determine the range of climate changes consistent with these uncertainties, based on a 53-member ensemble of model versions constructed by varying model parameters. We estimate a probability density function for the sensitivity of climate to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, and obtain a 5–95 per cent probability range of 2.4–5.4 °C. Our probability density function is constrained by objective estimates of the relative reliability of different model versions, the choice of model parameters that are varied and their uncertainty ranges, specified on the basis of expert advice. Our ensemble produces a range of regional changes much wider than indicated by traditional methods based on scaling the response patterns of an individual simulation5,6.

Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe

Abstract: Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.

Millennial- and orbital-scale changes in the East Asian monsoon over the past 224,000 years

Abstract: Stalactites, stalagmites and the many other forms of mineral deposits found in caves are a mainstay of climate studies, recording oxygen isotope ratios in limestone laid down over time. That pattern links to the water temperature of ancient oceans, and thus to climate. A new oxygen isotope record from Sanbao Cave, central China, tells the story of the region's climate stretching back 200,000 years, filling gaps in the record of a particularly important climate event, the East Asian monsoon. High-resolution speleothem records from China have provided insights into the factors that control the strength of the East Asian monsoon1,2,3,4. Our understanding of these factors remains incomplete, however, owing to gaps in the record of monsoon history over the past two interglacial–glacial cycles. In particular, missing sections have hampered our ability to test ideas about orbital-scale controls on the monsoon5,6,7, the causes of millennial-scale events8,9 and relationships between changes in the monsoon and climate in other regions. Here we present an absolute-dated oxygen isotope record from Sanbao cave, central China, that completes a Chinese-cave-based record of the strength of the East Asian monsoon that covers the past 224,000 years. The record is dominated by 23,000-year-long cycles that are synchronous within dating errors with summer insolation at 65° N (ref. 10), supporting the idea that tropical/subtropical monsoons respond dominantly and directly to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation on orbital timescales5. The cycles are punctuated by millennial-scale strong-summer-monsoon events (Chinese interstadials1), and the new record allows us to identify the complete series of these events over the past two interglacial–glacial cycles. Their duration decreases and their frequency increases during glacial build-up in both the last and penultimate glacial periods, indicating that ice sheet size affects their character and pacing. The ages of the events are exceptionally well constrained and may thus serve as benchmarks for correlating and calibrating climate records.

Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate

Abstract: Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. Alarming predictions have come from a rather narrow methodological base, but a new, integrated science of climate-change biodiversity assessment is emerging, based on multiple sources and approaches. Drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations, recent phenological and microevolutionary responses, experiments, and computational models, we review the insights that different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of climate change, including the extent of species' natural resilience. We introduce a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses. Although much of the information reviewed is on species, our framework and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems, habitats, ecological communities, and genetic diversity, whether terrestrial, marine, or fresh water.