Climate change

About: Climate change is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 99222 publications have been published within this topic receiving 3572006 citations.

Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

Abstract: Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32-39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability.

Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability - Part B: regional aspects - Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Abstract: ion and from groundwater resources (medium confidence), in the context of increased demand (from agriculture, energy and industry, and domestic use) and cross-sectoral implications that are not fully understood. {23.4.3, 23.9.1} Some adaptation is possible through uptake of more water-efficient technologies and water-saving strategies. {23.4.3, 23.7.2} Climate change will change the geographic distribution of wine grape varieties (high confidence) and this will reduce the value of wine products and the livelihoods of local wine communities in Southern and Continental Europe (medium confidence) and increase production in Northern Europe (low confidence). {23.4.1, 23.3.5, 23.5.4; Box 23-2} Some adaptation is possible through technologies and good practice. {Box 23-2} Climate warming will increase forest productivity in Northern Europe (medium confidence), {23.4.4} although damage from pests and diseases in all sub-regions will increase due to climate change (high confidence). {23.4.4} Wildfire risk in Southern Europe (high confidence) and damages from storms in Central Europe (low confidence) may also increase due to climate change. {23.4.4} Climate change is likely to cause ecological and socioeconomic damages from shifts in forest tree species range (from southwest to northeast) (medium confidence), and in pest species distributions (low confidence). {23.4.4} Forest management measures can enhance ecosystem resilience (medium confidence).

Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming

Abstract: Many attempts to predict the biotic responses to climate change rely on the 'climate envelope' approach, in which the current distribution of a species is mapped in climate-space and then, if the position of that climate-space changes, the distribution of the species is predicted to shift accordingly. The flaw in this approach is that distributions of species also reflect the influence of interactions with other species, so predictions based on climate envelopes may be very misleading if the interactions between species are altered by climate change. An additional problem is that current distributions may be the result of sources and sinks, in which species appear to thrive in places where they really persist only because individuals disperse into them from elsewhere. Here we use microcosm experiments on simple but realistic assemblages to show how misleading the climate envelope approach can be. We show that dispersal and interactions, which are important elements of population dynamics, must be included in predictions of biotic responses to climate change.

Recent Rapid Regional Climate Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

Abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that mean global warming was 0.6 ± 0.2 °C during the 20th century and cited anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases as the likely cause of temperature rise in the last 50 years. But this mean value conceals the substantial complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally- and diurnally-biased, decadally-variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming, which was substantially more rapid than the global mean. However, each RRR warming occupies a different climatic regime and may have an entirely different underlying cause. We discuss the significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. Here warming was much more rapid than in the rest of Antarctica where it was not significantly different to the global mean. We highlight climate proxies that appear to show that RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia, and so unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. So while the station records do not indicate a ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming, the RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula might be a regional amplification of such warming. This, however, remains unproven since we cannot yet be sure what mechanism leads to such an amplification. We discuss several possible candidate mechanisms: changing oceanographic or changing atmospheric circulation, or a regional air-sea-ice feedback amplifying greenhouse warming. We can show that atmospheric warming and reduction in sea-ice duration coincide in a small area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process is the probable cause of RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining the RRR warming is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century.

Ecological Dynamics Across the Arctic Associated with Recent Climate Change

Abstract: At the close of the Fourth International Polar Year, we take stock of the ecological consequences of recent climate change in the Arctic, focusing on effects at population, community, and ecosystem scales. Despite the buffering effect of landscape heterogeneity, Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapid changes may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudes and have the potential to affect ecosystem services related to natural resources, food production, climate regulation, and cultural integrity. We highlight areas of ecological research that deserve priority as the Arctic continues to warm.