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Climate change
About: Climate change is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 99222 publications have been published within this topic receiving 3572006 citations.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that the current CO2 level can be reduced to at most 350 ppm by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon.
Abstract: Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm, a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.
936 citations
TL;DR: This article presented a new data synthesis of global peatland ages, area changes, and carbon pool changes since the Last Glacial Maximum, along with a new map and total C pool estimates.
Abstract: [1] Here we present a new data synthesis of global peatland ages, area changes, and carbon (C) pool changes since the Last Glacial Maximum, along with a new peatland map and total C pool estimates. The data show different controls of peatland expansion and C accumulation in different regions. We estimate that northern peatlands have accumulated 547 (473–621) GtC, showing maximum accumulation in the early Holocene in response to high summer insolation and strong summer – winter climate seasonality. Tropical peatlands have accumulated 50 (44–55) GtC, with rapid rates about 8000–4000 years ago affected by a high and more stable sea level, a strong summer monsoon, and before the intensification of El Nino. Southern peatlands, mostly in Patagonia, South America, have accumulated 15 (13–18) GtC, with rapid accumulation during the Antarctic Thermal Maximum in the late glacial, and during the mid-Holocene thermal maximum. This is the first comparison of peatland dynamics among these global regions. Our analysis shows that a diversity of drivers at different times have significantly impacted the global C cycle, through the contribution of peatlands to atmospheric CH4 budgets and the history of peatland CO2 exchange with the atmosphere.
932 citations
01 Apr 2014
931 citations
TL;DR: It is shown how behavioral and mass/energy balance models can be combined with spatial data on climate, topography, and vegetation to predict impacts of increased air temperature on thermoregulating ectotherms such as reptiles and insects (a large portion of global biodiversity).
Abstract: Increasing concern about the impacts of global warming on biodiversity has stimulated extensive discussion, but methods to translate broad-scale shifts in climate into direct impacts on living animals remain simplistic. A key missing element from models of climatic change impacts on animals is the buffering influence of behavioral thermoregulation. Here, we show how behavioral and mass/energy balance models can be combined with spatial data on climate, topography, and vegetation to predict impacts of increased air temperature on thermoregulating ectotherms such as reptiles and insects (a large portion of global biodiversity). We show that for most "cold-blooded" terrestrial animals, the primary thermal challenge is not to attain high body temperatures (although this is important in temperate environments) but to stay cool (particularly in tropical and desert areas, where ectotherm biodiversity is greatest). The impact of climate warming on thermoregulating ectotherms will depend critically on how changes in vegetation cover alter the availability of shade as well as the animals' capacities to alter their seasonal timing of activity and reproduction. Warmer environments also may increase maintenance energy costs while simultaneously constraining activity time, putting pressure on mass and energy budgets. Energy- and mass-balance models provide a general method to integrate the complexity of these direct interactions between organisms and climate into spatial predictions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity. This methodology allows quantitative organism- and habitat-specific assessments of climate change impacts.
927 citations
TL;DR: The contribution of human-induced climate change to global heavy precipitation and hot extreme events is quantified in this paper, where the authors show that of the moderate extremes, 18% of precipitation and 75% of high-temperature events are attributable to warming.
Abstract: The contribution of human-induced climate change to global heavy precipitation and hot extreme events is quantified. The results show that of the moderate extremes, 18% of precipitation and 75% of high-temperature events are attributable to warming.
925 citations