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Climate change

About: Climate change is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 99222 publications have been published within this topic receiving 3572006 citations.


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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a global water model is used to analyse the impacts of climate change and socioeconomic driving forces (derived from the A2 and B2 scenarios of IPCC) on future global water stress.
Abstract: A global water model is used to analyse the impacts of climate change and socio-economic driving forces (derived from the A2 and B2 scenarios of IPCC) on future global water stress. This work extends previous global water research by analysing not only the impact of climate change and population, but also the effects of income, electricity production, water-use efficiency and other driving forces, on water stress. Depending on the scenario and climate model, water stress increases (between current conditions and the 2050s) over 62.0–75.8% of total river basin area and decreases over 19.7–29.0% of this area. The remaining areas have small changes. The principal cause of decreasing water stress (where it occurs) is the greater availability of water due to increased annual precipitation related to climate change. The principal cause of increasing water stress is growing water withdrawals, and the most important factor for this increase is the growth of domestic water use stimulated by income growth....

853 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (POMIP) as discussed by the authors evaluated model performance against the geologic record of environmental responses to climate changes and provided a unique opportunity to test model performance outside this limited climate range.
Abstract: There is large uncertainty about the magnitude of warming and how rainfall patterns will change in response to any given scenario of future changes in atmospheric composition and land use. The models used for future climate projections were developed and calibrated using climate observations from the past 40 years. The geologic record of environmental responses to climate changes provides a unique opportunity to test model performance outside this limited climate range. Evaluation of model simulations against palaeodata shows that models reproduce the direction and large-scale patterns of past changes in climate, but tend to underestimate the magnitude of regional changes. As part of the effort to reduce model-related uncertainty and produce more reliable estimates of twenty-first century climate, the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project is systematically applying palaeoevaluation techniques to simulations of the past run with the models used to make future projections. This evaluation will provide assessments of model performance, including whether a model is sufficiently sensitive to changes in atmospheric composition, as well as providing estimates of the strength of biosphere and other feedbacks that could amplify the model response to these changes and modify the characteristics of climate variability.

852 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A database analysis reveals urban climate change experimentation as a global trend and a characteristic trend of experimentation led by private actors emerges in Asia.
Abstract: Cities are key sites where climate change is being addressed. Previous research has largely overlooked the multiplicity of climate change responses emerging outside formal contexts of decision-making and led by actors other than municipal governments. Moreover, existing research has largely focused on case studies of climate change mitigation in developed economies. The objective of this paper is to uncover the heterogeneous mix of actors, settings, governance arrangements and technologies involved in the governance of climate change in cities in different parts of the world. The paper focuses on urban climate change governance as a process of experimentation. Climate change experiments are presented here as interventions to try out new ideas and methods in the context of future uncertainties. They serve to understand how interventions work in practice, in new contexts where they are thought of as innovative. To study experimentation, the paper presents evidence from the analysis of a database of 627 urban climate change experiments in a sample of 100 global cities. The analysis suggests that, since 2005, experimentation is a feature of urban responses to climate change across different world regions and multiple sectors. Although experimentation does not appear to be related to particular kinds of urban economic and social conditions, some of its core features are visible. For example, experimentation tends to focus on energy. Also, both social and technical forms of experimentation are visible, but technical experimentation is more common in urban infrastructure systems. While municipal governments have a critical role in climate change experimentation, they often act alongside other actors and in a variety of forms of partnership. These findings point at experimentation as a key tool to open up new political spaces for governing climate change in the city.

850 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that certain simplifying assumptions are unavoidable when building these models, which introduces biases into their simulations, which sometimes are surprisingly difficult to correct and can lead to model-based projections of climate.
Abstract: Coupled climate models are sophisticated tools designed to simulate the Earth climate system and the complex interactions between its components. Currently, more than a dozen centers around the world develop climate models to enhance our understanding of climate and climate change and to support the activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, climate models are not perfect. Our theoretical understanding of climate is still incomplete, and certain simplifying assumptions are unavoidable when building these models. This introduces biases into their simulations, which sometimes are surprisingly difficult to correct. Model imperfections have attracted criticism, with some arguing that model-based projections of climate

850 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors built species distribution models for Svalbard nesting pink-footed geese to relate their occurrence to environmental and climatic variables, and used the models to predict their distribution under a warmer climate scenario.
Abstract: Global climate change is expected to shift species ranges polewards, with a risk of range contractions and population declines of especially high-Arctic species. We built species distribution models for Svalbard-nesting pink-footed geese to relate their occurrence to environmental and climatic variables, and used the models to predict their distribution under a warmer climate scenario. The most parsimonious model included mean May temperature, the number of frost-free months and the proportion of moist and wet mossdominated vegetation in the area. The two climate variables are indicators for whether geese can physiologically fulfil the breeding cycle or not and the moss vegetation is an indicator of suitable feeding conditions. Projections of the distribution to warmer climate scenarios propose a large north- and eastward expansion of the potential breeding range on Svalbard even at modest temperature increases (1 and 21C increase in summer temperature, respectively). Contrary to recent suggestions regarding future distributions of Arctic wildlife, we predict that warming may lead to a further growth in population size of, at least some, Arctic breeding geese.

850 citations


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Performance
Metrics
No. of papers in the topic in previous years
YearPapers
20253
20247
202312,805
202223,277
20217,120
20206,646