Topic
Cointegration
About: Cointegration is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 17130 publications have been published within this topic receiving 506215 citations.
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TL;DR: Using cointegration analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling, the present article focuses on this issue by both providing an electricity demand estimation and forecast, and comparing the results with official projections as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: In the early 2000s, the Republic of Turkey has initiated an ambitious reform program in her electricity market, which requires privatization, liberalization as well as a radical restructuring. The most controversial reason behind, or justification for, recent reforms has been the rapid electricity demand growth; that is to say, the whole reform process has been a part of the endeavors to avoid the so-called “energy crisis”. Using cointegration analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling, the present article focuses on this issue by both providing an electricity demand estimation and forecast, and comparing the results with official projections. The study concludes, first, that consumers’ respond to price and income changes is quite limited and therefore there is a need for economic regulation in Turkish electricity market; and second, that the current official electricity demand projections highly overestimate the electricity demand, which may endanger the development of both a coherent energy policy in general and a healthy electricity market in particular.
253 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the causal link between economic growth, fossil fuel energy consumption, carbon emissions and oil price was empirically tested from 1990 to 2015 by using a panel of 22 African countries.
253 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the causal relationship between energy and economic growth in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania from 1980 to 2006 by employing energy use per capita, electric power consumption per capita and real GDP per capita variables.
252 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the relationship among tourism development, economic expansion, and poverty reduction in Nicaragua, and found a long-run stable relationship among the three, which indicated the potential economic muscle of tourism to seriously tackle Nicaraguan poverty at scale through helping both Nicaragua's public and private sectors allocate resources to tourism development.
Abstract: This study, using cointegration and causality tests, investigates the relationship among tourism development, economic expansion, and poverty reduction in Nicaragua. The results indicate a long-run stable relationship among the three. The causality tests suggest a one-way Granger causal relation between tourism development and economic expansion, and between tourism and poverty reduction, and a bidirectional causal relation between economic expansion and poverty. The nexus of tourism, economic expansion, and poverty reduction is established in the Nicaraguan economy. This result is supported by testing the sensitivity of the Granger causality test under different lag selections along the optimal lag. The empirical evidence points to the potential economic muscle of tourism to seriously tackle Nicaraguan poverty at scale through helping both Nicaragua's public and private sectors allocate resources to tourism development, resulting in the overall improvement of the economy.
251 citations
251 citations