Cointegration

About: Cointegration is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 17130 publications have been published within this topic receiving 506215 citations.

Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case

Abstract: This paper examines the role of tourism in the Spanish long-run economic development. The tourism-led growth hypothesis is confirmed through cointegration and causality testing. The results indicate that, at least, during the last three decades, economic growth in Spain has been sensible to persistent expansion of international tourism. The increase of this activity has produced multiplier effects over time. External competitivity has also been proved in the model to be a fundamental variable for Spanish economic growth. From the empirical analysis it can be inferred the positive effects on income that government policy, in the adequacy of supply as well as in the promotion of tourist activity, may bring about.

Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots

Abstract: This paper is an introduction to unit root econometrics as applied in macroeconomics. The paper first discusses univariate time series analysis, emphasizing the following topics: alternative representations of unit root processes, unit root testing procedures, the power of unit root tests, and the interpretation of unit root econometrics in finite samples. A second part of the paper tackles similar issues in a multivariate context where cointegration is now the central concept. The paper reviews representation, testing, and estimation of multivariate time series models with some unit roots. Two important themes of this paper are first, the importance of correctly specifying deterministic components of the series; and second, the usefulness of unit root tests not as methods to uncover some -true relation" but as practical devices that can be used to impose reasonable restrictions on the data and to suggest what asymptotic distribution theory gives the best approximation to the finite-sample distribution of coefficient estimates and test statistics.

Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions With I(1) Processes

Abstract: This article derives the large-sample distributions of Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests for parameter instability against several alternatives of interest in the context of cointegrated regression models. The fully modified estimator of Phillips and Hansen is extended to cover general models with stochastic and deterministic trends. The test statistics considered include the SupF test of Quandt, as well as the LM tests of Nyblom and of Nabeya and Tanaka. It is found that the asymptotic distributions depend on the nature of the regressor processes—that is, if the regressors are stochastic or deterministic trends. The distributions are noticeably different from the distributions when the data are weakly dependent. It is also found that the lack of cointegration is a special case of the alternative hypothesis considered (an unstable intercept), so the tests proposed here may also be viewed as a test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration. The tests are applied to three data se...