Showing papers on "Complex adaptive system published in 2016"

Implementation, context and complexity.

Abstract: Context is a problem in research on health behaviour change, knowledge translation, practice implementation and health improvement. This is because many intervention and evaluation designs seek to eliminate contextual confounders, when these represent the normal conditions into which interventions must be integrated if they are to be workable in practice. We present an ecological model of the ways that participants in implementation and health improvement processes interact with contexts. The paper addresses the problem of context as it affects processes of implementation, scaling up and diffusion of interventions. We extend our earlier work to develop Normalisation Process Theory and show how these processes involve interactions between mechanisms of resource mobilisation, collective action and negotiations with context. These mechanisms are adaptive. They contribute to self-organisation in complex adaptive systems. Implementation includes the translational efforts that take healthcare interventions beyond the closed systems of evaluation studies into the open systems of ‘real world’ contexts. The outcome of these processes depends on interactions and negotiations between their participants and contexts. In these negotiations, the plasticity of intervention components, the degree of participants’ discretion over resource mobilisation and actors’ contributions, and the elasticity of contexts, all play important parts. Understanding these processes in terms of feedback loops, adaptive mechanisms and the practical compromises that stem from them enables us to see the mechanisms specified by NPT as core elements of self-organisation in complex systems.

Dynamics from open innovation to evolutionary change

Abstract: We created conceptual models that people may use to analyze and forecast the dynamic effects of open innovation, which we applied to the smartphone sector using a model-based analysis approach. In addition, we built an open innovation simulation model for the smartphone sector. The dynamic model of open innovation linked logic and concepts relating to open innovation, complex adaptive systems, and evolutionary change. The model can be used to analyze the dynamic effects of open innovation strategies and open innovation simulation for the selection of future strategies.

Quasi-natural Organization Science

Abstract: Positing that organizational phenomena result from both individual human intentionality and natural causes independent of individuals' intended behavior, the need for a quasinatural organization science is identified. The paradigm war is defined in terms of positivism and postpositivism, with the suggestion that a more relevant epistemology might be scientific realism. The current unconstructive paradigm proliferation is seen as resulting from an underlying cause, idiosyncratic organizational microstates, phenomena identified by postmodernists. The article develops quasi-natural organization science as an antidote to multiparadigmaticism by recognizing that mathematically, computationally, and experimentally intense twentieth century natural sciences all have microstate idiosyncrasy assumptions similar to those postmodernists suggest are true of organizational phenomena. By framing a quasi-natural organization science focusing on microstates, my intent is not to deny the relevance of either intentionality and subjectivity or natural science and objectivity. The article attacks the microstate idiosyncrasy problem on four frontiers: microand macroevolutionary theory, semantic conception epistemology, analytical mechanics, and complexity theory. The first frontier develops the natural side of quasi-natural organization science to explain natural pattern or order. This "order" arguably results from multilevel coevolutionary behavior in a selectionist competitive context in the form of multi-level selectionist effects. The second frontier reviews the historic role of idealized models, as understood by historical realists and the "semantic conception of theories"-idealized constructs such as point masses or the rational actor assumption-that currently successful sciences, such as physics and economics, drew upon early in their life-cycles to sidestep the idiosyncrasy problem. Organization scientists are encouraged to develop theories in terms of idealized models. The third frontier attends to the role of 'instrumental conveniences' as essential constructs in the early life-cycle stages of sciences and the importance of studying rates. For example, a construct such as a pressure vessel acts as a container translating idiosyncratic gas particle movements into a directed pressure stream where particles emerge at some rate. Drawing on Sommerhoffs "directive correlation" concept as an analogous "container" in firms, this section argues that such containers can be used in organizational analysis to translate idiosyncratic microstates into probabilistic rates of occurrence, thereby allowing the use of intrafirm rate models and Hempel's deductive-statistical model of explanation. An example is given showing how human resource variables can be translated into rate concepts and then used in the context of the directive correlation and the deductive statistical model. The fourth frontier draws on complexity theory as a computational/analytical approach that directly incorporates idiosyncrasy by use of dynamical (nonlinear) methods. Complex adaptive systems, kinds of complexity, the causal role of complexity, and levels of adaptive tension likely to foster self-organization are discussed. An example shows how a complexity theory approach differs from a conventional explanation of why participative management decision making styles have failed to proliferate. The combined effect of rate dynamics, statistical mechanics, and dynamical analysis lays the platform for a realist, predictive, and generalizable quasi-natural organization science, thereby offering a possible resolution of the paradigm war. The mitigation of idiosyncrasy effects allows a reemphasis of background laws in organization science, as opposed to the further emphasis of contingent details advocated by postmodernists. (Multiparadigmaticism; Microstates; Epistemology; Coevolutionary Theory; Directive Correlation; Rate Dynamics; Complexity Theory)

Disaster resilience and complex adaptive systems theory

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the emergence of resilience into the contemporary discourse of disaster risk. As a counter position to the current status quo in defining and addressing resilience, this paper introduces the theoretical lens of complex adaptive systems theory (CAS). Some of the key characterisitcs related to CAS are discussed and linkages are made to possible benefit that they might have in enhancing the understanding of disaster resilience. Design/methodology/approach – An indepth review of literature pertaining to disaster resilience and CAS was conducted to find common grounds for theoretical synergies. Findings – The inherent similarities between the concept of resilience and CAS provides ample practical and theoretical contributions to the field of disaster risk studies. Originality/value – The paper provides a different perspective to the contemporary discourse on disaster resilience. A better understanding of disaster resilience and its underlying dynamics as illumi...

What Is a Complex Innovation System

Abstract: Innovation systems are sometimes referred to as complex systems, something that is intuitively understood but poorly defined. A complex system dynamically evolves in non-linear ways giving it unique properties that distinguish it from other systems. In particular, a common signature of complex systems is scale-invariant emergent properties. A scale-invariant property can be identified because it is solely described by a power law function, f(x) = kxα, where the exponent, α, is a measure of scale-invariance. The focus of this paper is to describe and illustrate that innovation systems have properties of a complex adaptive system. In particular scale-invariant emergent properties indicative of their complex nature that can be quantified and used to inform public policy. The global research system is an example of an innovation system. Peer-reviewed publications containing knowledge are a characteristic output. Citations or references to these articles are an indirect measure of the impact the knowledge has on the research community. Peer-reviewed papers indexed in Scopus and in the Web of Science were used as data sources to produce measures of sizes and impact. These measures are used to illustrate how scale-invariant properties can be identified and quantified. It is demonstrated that the distribution of impact has a reasonable likelihood of being scale-invariant with scaling exponents that tended toward a value of less than 3.0 with the passage of time and decreasing group sizes. Scale-invariant correlations are shown between the evolution of impact and size with time and between field impact and sizes at points in time. The recursive or self-similar nature of scale-invariance suggests that any smaller innovation system within the global research system is likely to be complex with scale-invariant properties too.

Adaptive planning: Generating conditions for urban adaptability.Lessons from Dutch organic development strategies

Abstract: The development of cities includes a wide variety of uncertainties which challenge spatial planners and decision makers. In response, planning approaches which move away from the ambition to achieve predefined outcomes are being explored in the literature. One of them is an adaptive approach to planning. In this paper, we argue that adaptive planning comes with a shift in focus. Instead of content and process, it is first of all about creating conditions for development which support a city’s capacity to respond to changing circumstances. We explore what these conditions may comprise and how they can be related to planning. First theoretically, by portraying cities as complex adaptive systems. Then empirically, through an evaluation of the practice of organic development strategies in which development trajectories are only minimally structured. Based on a review of 12 Dutch urban development projects, two of which are analysed in detail in this paper, we identify a series of conditions on spatio-functional configurations and the capacity building of local actors which enhance urban adaptability.

From Programs to Systems: Deploying Implementation Science and Practice for Sustained Real World Effectiveness in Services for Children and Families

Abstract: The transfer of knowledge of effective practice, especially into "usual care" settings, remains challenging. This article argues that to close this gap we need to recognize the particular challenges of whole-system improvement. We need to move beyond a limited focus on individual programs and experimental research on their effectiveness. The rapidly developing field of implementation science and practice (ISP) provides a particular lens and a set of important constructs that can helpfully accelerate progress. A review of selected key constructs and distinctive features of ISP, including recognizing invisible system infrastructure, co-construction involving active collaboration between stakeholders, and attention to active implementation, supports for providers beyond education and training. Key aspects of an implementation lens likely to be most helpful in sustaining effectiveness include assisting innovators to identify and accommodate the architecture of existing systems, understand the implementation process as a series of distinct but nonlinear stages, identify implementation outcomes as prerequisites for treatment outcomes, and analyse implementation challenges using frameworks of implementation drivers. In complex adaptive systems, how services are implemented may matter more than their specific content, and how services align and adapt to local context may determine their sustained usefulness. To improve implementation-relevant research, we need better process evaluation and cannot rely on experimental methods that do not capture complex systemic contexts. Deployment of an implementation lens may perhaps help to avoid future "rigor mortis," enabling more productively flexible and integrative approaches to both program design and evaluation.

Towards adaptive tourism areas? A complexity perspective to examine the conditions for adaptive capacity

Abstract: Tourism area development is affected by the competitive global tourism industry and the complex, multilevel dynamics of the contemporary network society. The strategic planning and governance challenge is stimulating tourism areas to become adaptive areas, being capable of responding to changing contexts in order to maintain or improve the performance of these areas as competitive tourism destinations. This article examines conditions for “adaptive tourism areas”. It does so on the basis of a complex adaptive system (CAS) perspective on tourism area development. The perspective is used to conceptualise tourism areas as complex and potentially adaptive systems, and to discuss how tourism area development can be understood as a multilevel, co-evolutionary and path dependent process. Furthermore, the CAS perspective is used to draw attention to the importance of a degree of diversity in terms of tourism products, experiences and firms. Encouraging a degree of diversity requires among other things interconnec...

The biology of corporate survival

Abstract: U.S. public companies are dying at faster and faster rates; in fact, they have a one in three chance of being delisted in the next five years. Why? They are failing to adapt to the growing complexity of their environments, the authors argue—misreading those environments, selecting the wrong approaches to strategy, or failing to support a viable approach with the right behaviors and capabilities. Drawing on their research at the intersection of business strategy, biology, and complex systems, BCG’s Martin Reeves and Daichi Ueda, along with Princeton biologist Simon Levin, describe six principles that confer robustness in what’s known as complex adaptive systems—principles that are directly applicable to business. Firms should: • maintain heterogeneity of people, ideas, and endeavors • sustain a modular structure of loosely connected components • preserve redundancy among components • expect surprise, but reduce uncertainty • create feedback loops and adaptive mechanisms to ensure the variation, selection, and propagation of innovations • foster trust and reciprocity in their business ecosystems Rising corporate mortality is an increasing threat, and the forces driving it are likely to remain strong for the foreseeable future. Understanding and implementing the principles that create robustness in complex adaptive systems can mean the difference between survival and extinction. INSET: An Increasingly Complex Environment

Complexity and Economic Policy: A Paradigm Shift or a Change in Perspective? A Review Essay on David Colander and Roland Kupers's Complexity and the Art of Public Policy

Abstract: In their recent book, Colander and Kupers (2014) argue that viewing the economy as a complex adaptive system should change the way in which we make economic policy. This would necessitate a paradigm shift. Economics has, over time, tried to produce a coherent model to underpin the dominant laissez-faire liberal approach. But we have never proved, in that model, that left to their own devices, the participants in an economy will self-organize into a satisfactory state. This is an assumption. Complex interactive systems with direct interaction between heterogeneous agents may show no tendency to self-equilibrate and will undergo endogenous crises. Economists should concentrate on the emergence of certain patterns. Colander and Kupers suggest that we may be able to nudge the system into "good" basins of attraction. A more radical view is that there are no fixed basins of attraction; these change with the evolution of the system and it is illusory to believe that we can choose good basins. We may be able to recognize and influence the emergence of certain states of the economy, but we are far from Leon Walras's dream of economics as a science like astrophysics.

Expert views on applying complexity theory in evaluation: Opportunities and barriers:

Abstract: Interest in evaluating complexity appears to be on the rise. Increasing application of systems thinking and complex systems methodologies to evaluation can be seen in contents of journals and evalu...

Complex methods of inquiry: structuring uncertainty

Abstract: Organizational problem spaces can be viewed as complex, uncertain and ambiguous. They can also be understood as open problem spaces. As such, any engagement with them, and any effort to intervene in order to pursue desirable change, cannot be assumed to be just a matter of ‘complicatedness’. The issue is not just a need to cope with dynamics of system. It is also the perceptual ‘boundedness’ of multitudes of assumptions about scope of whole and limitations of organization as system. Furthermore, explicit attention to complexities of feedback loops is an extremely important aspect of any systemic discussion. How can we help teams of competent professionals to engage purposefully with such uncertain and ambiguous problem domains? The author suggests that we can only address this effectively through pragmatic efforts to incorporate a multitude of boundary-setting assumptions, explored as part of active (self-) reflection and practical engagement. This must be undertaken without resorting to an overly simplistic application of convergent thinking in our efforts to support problem solving. Instead, we need to pursue divergent thinking and ‘complexification’ in our effort to support problem resolving. The main contribution of this thesis is to present a collection of principles that taken together, provide support for this engagement ntervention. A core feature of this result is the framework for Strategic Systemic Thinking, which includes examples of pragmatically useful methods and tools.

Societal Change Systems: A Framework to Address Wicked Problems

Abstract: Problems referred to as wicked, messy, complex, and meta-level, by their very nature, require involving multiple and diverse organizations. Issues such as climate change, poverty, sustainable agriculture, and health care involve many hundreds of organizations at a national level; at a global level this easily increases to many thousands. Emerging their collective power into an effective force represents an enormous organizing challenge. Drawing from complexity and global networking knowledge, and building on the concept of “innovation system,” this article develops the concept of “societal change system” as a framework to support addressing the organizing challenge. This arose through analysis of global change initiatives aiming to integrate sustainability concerns into the production of electricity, which included a meeting of leaders of such change initiatives. The activities produced recommendations for greatly enhancing change efforts with pragmatic steps to develop the societal change system in which...

Addressing antimicrobial resistance in China: policy implementation in a complex context.

Abstract: The effectiveness of antibiotics in treating bacterial infections is decreasing in China because of the widespread development of resistant organisms. Although China has enacted a number of regulations to address this problem, but the impact is very limited. This paper investigates the implementation of these regulations through the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS). It presents the findings from reviews of relevant policy documents and published papers. The paper identifies different types of agent and explores their interaction with regard to the use of antibiotics and their responses to changes of the regulations. It focuses particularly on the impact of perverse financial incentives on overall patterns of use of antibiotics. Implications for the possibilities of nonlinear results, interactive relationships, and new pathways of policy implementation are discussed. The paper concludes that policy-makers need to better understand the objectives, incentives and potential adaptive behaviors of the agents when they implement interventions to improve antibiotic use and reduce the risk of emergence of resistant organisms.

Embedding research in health systems: lessons from complexity theory

Abstract: Internationally, there has been increasing focus on creating health research systems. This article aims to investigate the challenges of implementing apparently simple strategies to support the development of a health research system. We focus on a case study of an English National Health Service Hospital Trust that sought to implement the national recommendation that health organisations should introduce a statement about research on all patient admission letters. We apply core concepts from complexity theory to the case study and undertake a documentary analysis of the email dialogue between staff involved in implementing this initiative. The process of implementing a research statement in patient admission letters in one clinical service took 1 year and 21 days. The length of time needed was influenced firstly by adaptive self-organisation, underpinned by competing interests. Secondly, it was influenced by the relationship between systems, rather than simply being a product of issues within those systems. The relationship between the health system and the research system was weaker than might have been expected. Responsibilities were unclear, leading to confusion and delayed action. Conventional ways of thinking about organisations suggest that change happens when leaders and managers change the strategic vision, structure or procedures in an organisation and then persuade others to rationally implement the strategy. However, health research systems are complex adaptive systems characterised by high levels of unpredictability due to self-organisation and systemic interactions, which give rise to ‘emergent’ properties. We argue for the need to study how micro-processes of organisational dynamics may give rise to macro patterns of behaviour and strategic organisational direction and for the use of systems approaches to investigate the emergent properties of health research systems.

US container port resilience in a complex and dynamic world

Abstract: The resilience of US container ports is increasingly challenged by disruptive and stressful events such as regulatory change, adverse weather, larger container ship sizes, changing patterns of trade and sea routes, and the still to be quantified effects of enlarging the capabilities and capacity of the Panama Canal. Port sustainability requires the port managers to be resilient in their practices, to maintain existing performance levels and to increase market share when opportunity presents. The primary question that this paper addresses is how US container ports might be affected by adverse events and how they undertake resilience processes when faced with complex problems and uncertain outcomes. The paper gathers insights from literature on complex adaptive systems to discuss how US container ports may adapt to changing circumstances through innovation and the emergent outputs of self-organised agents (components) of their port organisations. The paper suggests that by conceptualising ports as complex adaptive systems, port managers may be able to better understand the complexity of change and organisational dynamics and thus harness the phenomenon of self-organisation towards their strategic intent.

Game theory models for communication between agents: a review

Abstract: In the real world, agents or entities are in a continuous state of interactions. These interactions lead to various types of complexity dynamics. One key difficulty in the study of complex agent interactions is the difficulty of modeling agent communication on the basis of rewards. Game theory offers a perspective of analysis and modeling these interactions. Previously, while a large amount of literature is available on game theory, most of it is from specific domains and does not cater for the concepts from an agent-based perspective. Here in this paper, we present a comprehensive multidisciplinary state-of-the-art review and taxonomy of game theory models of complex interactions between agents.

Capacity development through international projects: a complex adaptive systems perspective

Abstract: Purpose – International development practice has had as its dominant paradigm the rational-analytic model of project planning, management and evaluation. This is reflected in the widespread adoption by donor agencies of results-based management (RBM), side by side with conventionally used tools for monitoring and evaluation (including logical framework analysis (“logframe”), logic model and results frameworks). Donor agencies rely upon such tools to generate the evidence base for measuring “success” across the spectrum of their work, even though projects differ enormously in their nature, scope and time-span. Process-led capacity development projects and input-led infrastructural or straightforward service delivery projects require very different yardsticks of performance monitoring and appraisal. Drawing on insights from the complex adaptive systems (CAS) literature, the purpose of this paper is to explore how projects focused on capacity development necessitate a more eclectic approach, including – but ...

Social-ecological innovation: adaptive responses to urban environmental conditions

Abstract: Novel approaches to natural resource management, particularly those which promote stakeholder participation, have been put forward as fundamental ingredients for establishing resilient, polycentric forms of environmental governance. This is nowhere more pertinent than in the case of the complex adaptive systems associated with urban areas. Decentralisation of urban green space management has been posited as an element thereof which, according to resilience thinking, should contribute to the adaptive capacity of cities and the ecosystem services upon which they rely. Implicit in this move towards increased adaptive capacity is the ability to manage through innovation. Although the importance of innovation towards system adaptability has been acknowledged, little work has thus far been carried out which demonstrates that innovative use of urban green space represents a form of adaptive response to environmental conditions. The current paper reports on research which maps examples of organised social-ecological innovation (OSEI) in an urban study area and evaluates them as adaptive responses to local environmental conditions which may contribute to system resilience. The results present OSEI as a coherent body of responses to local social and environmental deprivation, exhibiting diversity and adaptability according to individual contexts. The study therefore provides evidence for the importance of local stakeholder-led innovation as in the building of adaptive capacity in urban social-ecological systems.

Planning and complexity: Engaging with temporal dynamics, uncertainty and complex adaptive systems:

Abstract: The nature of complex systems as a transdisciplinary collection of concepts from physics and economics to sociology and ecology provides an evolving field of inquiry (Laszlo and Krippner, 1998) for urban planning and urban design As a result, planning theory has assimilated multiple concepts from the complexity sciences over the past decades The seemingly chaotic or non-linear urban phenomena resulting from the combination of hard and soft systems (Checkland, 1989) or physical and environmental aspects of the city with human intervention, motivation and perception have been of particular interest in the context of increasing criticism of top-down approaches Processes such as self- organisation, temporal dynamics and transition, previously ignored or assumed problematic within equilibrium-centred conceptualisations or mechanistic theories, have found their way back into planning through complexity theories of cities (CTC) (Allen, 1997; Batty, 2007; de Roo and Silva, 2010; Marshall, 2012; Portugali, 2011b) While there is an overlap with Structuralist-Marxist and humanistic perspectives (Portugali, 2011c) and a continuity from an older science of cities (Batty, 2013), it is interesting to observe the engagement with bottom-up phenomena, structural and functional co-evolution and resultant adaptable and self-organisational systems within complexity planning It has taken time for planning to adopt complexity thinking beyond metaphor or common usage of the term, but we now appear to be at a tipping point where complexity planning is exploring methods of engagement and cognition, rather than the question of whether cities are complex

A Conceptual Model of Systems Thinking Leadership in Community Colleges

Abstract: The pluralistic and often competing goals of myriad constituents, the changing demographics of students, the uncertainty of funding, and the growing demands for accountability from stakeholders have increased the complexity of systems which community college leaders must manage. Emerging from the recent literature on community colleges is a call for new models of leadership in the context of leading in an increasingly uncertain and complex environment. Systems thinking offers a means to help leaders respond to these growing organizational complexities and move leadership from a traditional bureaucratic model to a more adaptive model. A systematic review of literature on systems thinking’s application to organizational performance in higher education was bolstered with evidence from healthcare. Findings revealed three reoccurring ways in which leaders apply systems thinking processes for improving organizational performance. A conceptual model for systems thinking leadership is proposed in which the three processes, characterized as discovery, framing, and action, can be enacted either individually or sequentially for enhancing organizational performance. The model draws upon boundary critique, critical systems thinking, systemic intervention, total systems intervention, systems dynamics, soft systems methodology, complexity theory and complex adaptive systems, yet uses language more readily identifiable to community college practitioners.

Using systems thinking to support clinical system transformation

Abstract: Purpose - The British Columbia Ministry of Health's Clinical Care Management initiative was used as a case study to better understand large-scale change (LSC) within BC's health system. Using a complex system framework, the purpose of this paper is to examine mechanisms that enable and constrain the implementation of clinical guidelines across various clinical settings. Design/methodology/approach - Researchers applied a general model of complex adaptive systems plus two specific conceptual frameworks (realist evaluation and system dynamics mapping) to define and study enablers and constraints. Focus group sessions and interviews with clinicians, executives, managers and board members were validated through an online survey. Findings - The functional themes for managing large-scale clinical change included: creating a context to prepare clinicians for health system transformation initiatives; promoting shared clinical leadership; strengthening knowledge management, strategic communications and opportunities for networking; and clearing pathways through the complexity of a multilevel, dynamic system. Research limitations/implications - The action research methodology was designed to guide continuing improvement of implementation. A sample of initiatives was selected; it was not intended to compare and contrast facilitators and barriers across all initiatives and regions. Similarly, evaluating the results or process of guideline implementation was outside the scope; the methods were designed to enable conversations at multiple levels - policy, management and practice - about how to improve implementation. The study is best seen as a case study of LSC, offering a possible model for replication by others and a tool to shape further dialogue. Practical implications - Recommended action-oriented strategies included engaging local champions; supporting local adaptation for implementation of clinical guidelines; strengthening local teams to guide implementation; reducing change fatigue; ensuring adequate resources; providing consistent communication especially for front-line care providers; and supporting local teams to demonstrate the clinical value of the guidelines to their colleagues. Originality/value - Bringing a complex systems perspective to clinical guideline implementation resulted in a clear understanding of the challenges involved in LSC.