scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Topic

Conditional probability distribution

About: Conditional probability distribution is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 9105 publications have been published within this topic receiving 343319 citations. The topic is also known as: Conditional Probability Distribution.


Papers
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a natural generalization of the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic) process introduced in 1982 to allow for past conditional variances in the current conditional variance equation is proposed.

17,555 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A generalization of the sampling method introduced by Metropolis et al. as mentioned in this paper is presented along with an exposition of the relevant theory, techniques of application and methods and difficulties of assessing the error in Monte Carlo estimates.
Abstract: SUMMARY A generalization of the sampling method introduced by Metropolis et al. (1953) is presented along with an exposition of the relevant theory, techniques of application and methods and difficulties of assessing the error in Monte Carlo estimates. Examples of the methods, including the generation of random orthogonal matrices and potential applications of the methods to numerical problems arising in statistics, are discussed. For numerical problems in a large number of dimensions, Monte Carlo methods are often more efficient than conventional numerical methods. However, implementation of the Monte Carlo methods requires sampling from high dimensional probability distributions and this may be very difficult and expensive in analysis and computer time. General methods for sampling from, or estimating expectations with respect to, such distributions are as follows. (i) If possible, factorize the distribution into the product of one-dimensional conditional distributions from which samples may be obtained. (ii) Use importance sampling, which may also be used for variance reduction. That is, in order to evaluate the integral J = X) p(x)dx = Ev(f), where p(x) is a probability density function, instead of obtaining independent samples XI, ..., Xv from p(x) and using the estimate J, = Zf(xi)/N, we instead obtain the sample from a distribution with density q(x) and use the estimate J2 = Y{f(xj)p(x1)}/{q(xj)N}. This may be advantageous if it is easier to sample from q(x) thanp(x), but it is a difficult method to use in a large number of dimensions, since the values of the weights w(xi) = p(x1)/q(xj) for reasonable values of N may all be extremely small, or a few may be extremely large. In estimating the probability of an event A, however, these difficulties may not be as serious since the only values of w(x) which are important are those for which x -A. Since the methods proposed by Trotter & Tukey (1956) for the estimation of conditional expectations require the use of importance sampling, the same difficulties may be encountered in their use. (iii) Use a simulation technique; that is, if it is difficult to sample directly from p(x) or if p(x) is unknown, sample from some distribution q(y) and obtain the sample x values as some function of the corresponding y values. If we want samples from the conditional dis

14,965 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The theory of possibility described in this paper is related to the theory of fuzzy sets by defining the concept of a possibility distribution as a fuzzy restriction which acts as an elastic constraint on the values that may be assigned to a variable.

8,918 citations

Book
01 Jan 1979
TL;DR: In this paper, the convergence of distributions is considered in the context of conditional probability, i.e., random variables and expected values, and the probability of a given distribution converging to a certain value.
Abstract: Probability. Measure. Integration. Random Variables and Expected Values. Convergence of Distributions. Derivatives and Conditional Probability. Stochastic Processes. Appendix. Notes on the Problems. Bibliography. List of Symbols. Index.

6,334 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Condensation algorithm uses “factored sampling”, previously applied to the interpretation of static images, in which the probability distribution of possible interpretations is represented by a randomly generated set.
Abstract: The problem of tracking curves in dense visual clutter is challenging. Kalman filtering is inadequate because it is based on Gaussian densities which, being unimo dal, cannot represent simultaneous alternative hypotheses. The Condensation algorithm uses “factored sampling”, previously applied to the interpretation of static images, in which the probability distribution of possible interpretations is represented by a randomly generated set. Condensation uses learned dynamical models, together with visual observations, to propagate the random set over time. The result is highly robust tracking of agile motion. Notwithstanding the use of stochastic methods, the algorithm runs in near real-time.

5,804 citations


Network Information
Related Topics (5)
Estimator
97.3K papers, 2.6M citations
91% related
Markov chain
51.9K papers, 1.3M citations
90% related
Linear model
19K papers, 1M citations
89% related
Probability distribution
40.9K papers, 1.1M citations
88% related
Statistical hypothesis testing
19.5K papers, 1M citations
86% related
Performance
Metrics
No. of papers in the topic in previous years
YearPapers
202392
2022186
2021404
2020376
2019349
2018319