Topic

# Conditional probability distribution

About: Conditional probability distribution is a(n) research topic. Over the lifetime, 9105 publication(s) have been published within this topic receiving 343319 citation(s). The topic is also known as: Conditional Probability Distribution.

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Journal ArticleDOI
Tim Bollerslev1, Tim Bollerslev2Institutions (2)
Abstract: A natural generalization of the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic) process introduced in Engle (1982) to allow for past conditional variances in the current conditional variance equation is proposed. Stationarity conditions and autocorrelation structure for this new class of parametric models are derived. Maximum likelihood estimation and testing are also considered. Finally an empirical example relating to the uncertainty of the inflation rate is presented.

16,132 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
W. K. Hastings1Institutions (1)
01 Apr 1970-Biometrika
Abstract: SUMMARY A generalization of the sampling method introduced by Metropolis et al. (1953) is presented along with an exposition of the relevant theory, techniques of application and methods and difficulties of assessing the error in Monte Carlo estimates. Examples of the methods, including the generation of random orthogonal matrices and potential applications of the methods to numerical problems arising in statistics, are discussed. For numerical problems in a large number of dimensions, Monte Carlo methods are often more efficient than conventional numerical methods. However, implementation of the Monte Carlo methods requires sampling from high dimensional probability distributions and this may be very difficult and expensive in analysis and computer time. General methods for sampling from, or estimating expectations with respect to, such distributions are as follows. (i) If possible, factorize the distribution into the product of one-dimensional conditional distributions from which samples may be obtained. (ii) Use importance sampling, which may also be used for variance reduction. That is, in order to evaluate the integral J = X) p(x)dx = Ev(f), where p(x) is a probability density function, instead of obtaining independent samples XI, ..., Xv from p(x) and using the estimate J, = Zf(xi)/N, we instead obtain the sample from a distribution with density q(x) and use the estimate J2 = Y{f(xj)p(x1)}/{q(xj)N}. This may be advantageous if it is easier to sample from q(x) thanp(x), but it is a difficult method to use in a large number of dimensions, since the values of the weights w(xi) = p(x1)/q(xj) for reasonable values of N may all be extremely small, or a few may be extremely large. In estimating the probability of an event A, however, these difficulties may not be as serious since the only values of w(x) which are important are those for which x -A. Since the methods proposed by Trotter & Tukey (1956) for the estimation of conditional expectations require the use of importance sampling, the same difficulties may be encountered in their use. (iii) Use a simulation technique; that is, if it is difficult to sample directly from p(x) or if p(x) is unknown, sample from some distribution q(y) and obtain the sample x values as some function of the corresponding y values. If we want samples from the conditional dis

13,481 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The theory of possibility described in this paper is related to the theory of fuzzy sets by defining the concept of a possibility distribution as a fuzzy restriction which acts as an elastic constraint on the values that may be assigned to a variable.

Abstract: The theory of possibility described in this paper is related to the theory of fuzzy sets by defining the concept of a possibility distribution as a fuzzy restriction which acts as an elastic constraint on the values that may be assigned to a variable. More specifically, if F is a fuzzy subset of a universe of discourse U={u} which is characterized by its membership function μF, then a proposition of the form “X is F,” where X is a variable taking values in U, induces a possibility distribution ∏X which equates the possibility of X taking the value u to μF(u)—the compatibility of u with F. In this way, X becomes a fuzzy variable which is associated with the possibility distribution ∏x in much the same way as a random variable is associated with a probability distribution. In general, a variable may be associated both with a possibility distribution and a probability distribution, with the weak connection between the two expressed as the possibility/probability consistency principle. A thesis advanced in this paper is that the imprecision that is intrinsic in natural languages is, in the main, possibilistic rather than probabilistic in nature. Thus, by employing the concept of a possibility distribution, a proposition, p, in a natural language may be translated into a procedure which computes the probability distribution of a set of attributes which are implied by p. Several types of conditional translation rules are discussed and, in particular, a translation rule for propositions of the form “X is F is α-possible,” where α is a number in the interval [0, 1], is formulated and illustrated by examples.

8,549 citations

Book
01 Jan 1979-
Abstract: Probability. Measure. Integration. Random Variables and Expected Values. Convergence of Distributions. Derivatives and Conditional Probability. Stochastic Processes. Appendix. Notes on the Problems. Bibliography. List of Symbols. Index.

6,320 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Michael Isard1, Andrew Blake1Institutions (1)
TL;DR: The Condensation algorithm uses “factored sampling”, previously applied to the interpretation of static images, in which the probability distribution of possible interpretations is represented by a randomly generated set.

Abstract: The problem of tracking curves in dense visual clutter is challenging. Kalman filtering is inadequate because it is based on Gaussian densities which, being unimo dal, cannot represent simultaneous alternative hypotheses. The Condensation algorithm uses “factored sampling”, previously applied to the interpretation of static images, in which the probability distribution of possible interpretations is represented by a randomly generated set. Condensation uses learned dynamical models, together with visual observations, to propagate the random set over time. The result is highly robust tracking of agile motion. Notwithstanding the use of stochastic methods, the algorithm runs in near real-time.

5,749 citations

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##### Performance
###### Metrics
No. of papers in the topic in previous years
YearPapers
20228
2021399
2020373
2019349
2018319
2017370

###### Top Attributes

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Topic's top 5 most impactful authors

Barry C. Arnold

20 papers, 522 citations

Mark J. van der Laan

16 papers, 536 citations

Charalambos D. Charalambous

15 papers, 134 citations

Norman R. Swanson

14 papers, 556 citations

David B. Dunson

12 papers, 424 citations