Showing papers on "Consumption (economics) published in 1999"

By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior

Abstract: We present a consumption-based model that explains a wide variety of dynamic asset pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of stock prices, the long-horizon predictability of excess stock returns, and the countercyclical variation of stock market volatility The model captures much of the history of stock prices from consumption data It explains the short- and long-run equity premium puzzles despite a low and constant risk-free rate The results are essentially the same whether we model stocks as a claim to the consumption stream or as a claim to volatile dividends poorly correlated with consumption The model is driven by an independently and identically distributed consumption growth process and adds a slow-moving external habit to the standard power utility function These features generate slow countercyclical variation in risk premia The model posits a fundamentally novel description of risk premia: Investors fear stocks primarily because they do poorly in recessions unrelated to the risks of long-run average consumption growth

Consumption and Portfolio Decisions when Expected Returns are Time Varying

Abstract: This paper presents an approximate analytical solution to the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an infinitely lived investor with Epstein-Zin-Weil utility who faces a constant riskless interest rate and a time-varying equity premium. When the model is calibrated to U. S. stock market data, it implies that intertemporal hedging motives greatly increase, and may even double, the average demand for stocks by investors whose risk-aversion coefficients exceed one. The optimal portfolio policy also involves timing the stock market. Failure to time or to hedge can cause large welfare losses relative to the optimal policy.

Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending

Abstract: Changes in government spending often lead to significant shifts in demand across sectors. This paper analyzes the effects of sector-specific changes in government spending in a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model in which the reallocation of capital across sectors is costly. The two-sector model leads to a richer array of possible responses of aggregate variables than the one-sector model. The empirical part of the paper estimates the effects of military buildups on a variety of macroeconomic variables using a new measure of military shocks. The behavior of macroeconomic aggregates is consistent with the predictions of a multi-sector neoclassical model. In particular, consumption, real product wages and manufacturing productivity fall in response to exogenous military buildups in the post-World War II United States.

Status Consumption in Consumer Behavior: Scale Development and Validation

Abstract: This paper describes the development and validation of a short, reliable, and valid self-report scale to measure status consumption, the tendency to purchase goods and services for the status or social prestige that they confer on their owners. Items were written to reflect the conceptual meaning of the construct. Six studies were conducted to purify the scale and demonstrate its unidimensionality, internal consistency, validity, and freedom from response bias. The resultant scale measures an individual difference construct distinct from social class or materialism. Differences in self-reported status consumption are also shown to be positively correlated with ownership of brands reputed to be higher in status than competing brands.

The Response of Household Consumption to Income Tax Refunds

Abstract: A central implication of the life-cycle (or permanent-income) theory is that consumption should not respond to predictable fluctuations in income. Tests of this implication have yielded mixed results, especially on micro data (Angus Deaton, 1992; Martin Browning and Annamaria Lusardi, 1996). In large part this might be due to the difficulties of isolating the predictable component of income at the micro level. Most tests proceed by instrumenting for income, but since the available instruments are typically poor, such tests might be prejudiced against finding significant excess sensitivity of consumption to income (John Shea, 1995).' Also, it is not clear how closely the resulting econometric predictions of income coincide with agents' actual expectations of income. To avoid these difficulties this paper examines the response of household consumption to a particular type of income that is both predictable and transitory-income tax refunds. Since a refund depends on events in the previous calendar year, it is predictable income as regards consumption in the year of its receipt. Consequently, under the life-cycle theory consumption should not increase on receipt of a refund.2 In addition to testing the canonical model of consumption, this paper provides estimates interpretable as the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of refunds. Since federal tax refunds now amount to over $80 billion per year (averaging well over $1,000 per refund), these estimates are of interest in themselves. More generally they bear on the impact of even preannounced and temporary changes in fiscal policy. The paper begins by surveying related studies in Section I. Section II describes the data, the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX), which of the leading U.S. micro data sets has the most comprehensive coverage of expenditure. The empirical specification is set out in Section HI. Section IV reports the results, and Section V concludes.

The impact of communication effectiveness and service quality on relationship commitment in consumer, professional services

Abstract: Most previous research in the domain of relationship marketing has focused on the antecedents of loyalty and commitment in industrial markets, distribution channels or consumer goods. This study, however, models the antecedents of clients’ relationship commitment in the context of a professional service, high in credence qualities (where customers have difficulty in confidently evaluating service quality, even purchase and consumption) ‐ i.e. personal financial planning services. The impact of four key explanatory variables (communication effectiveness, technical quality, functional quality and trust) are examined. The results support the hypothesized model and show communication effectiveness to be a key driver of all antecedent variables, and the single most powerful determinant of relationship commitment.

Consumption Over the Life Cycle

Abstract: This paper employs cohort technique and Consumer Expenditure Survey data to construct average age-profiles of consumption and income over the working lives of typical households across different education and occupation groups. Using these profiles, we estimate a structural model of optimal life-cycle consumption expenditures in the presence of realistic labour income uncertainty. The model fits the profiles quite well. In addition to providing tight estimates of the discount rate and risk aversion, we find that consumer behaviour changes strikingly over the life-cycle. Young consumers behave as buffer-stock agents. Around the age of 40, the typical household starts accumulating liquid assets for retirement and its behaviour mimics more closely that of a certainty equivalent consumer. This change in behaviour is mostly driven by the life-cycle profile of expected income. Our methodology provides a natural decomposition of saving into its precautionary and retirement components.

New Evidence on the Money's Worth of Individual Annuities

Abstract: This paper presents new information on the expected present discounted value of payouts on individual life annuities. The annuity we examine is the single premium immediate life annuity, an insurance product that pays out a nominal level sum as long as the covered person lives, in exchange for an initial lump-sum premium. This annuity offers protection against the risk of someone outliving his saving, given uncertainty about longevity. For reasonable estimates of behavioral parameters, we calculate that individual annuities are currently priced so that retirees without bequest motives should find these policies of substantial value in configuring their portfolios to smooth retirement consumption. We also find that the expected present discounted value of payouts, relative to the initial cost of the annuity, has increased over the last decade. These findings bear on the policy debate regarding the role of individual choice and self-reliance in retirement planning.

Attribute-Level Performance, Satisfaction, and Behavioral Intentions over Time: A Consumption-System Approach:

Abstract: Instead of offering products or services alone, increasingly, firms and their partners are offering consumption systems. Consumption systems are offerings characterized by a significant product and...

Smoothing Consumption by Smoothing Income: Hours-of-Work Responses to Idiosyncratic Agricultural Shocks in Rural India

Abstract: While research has demonstrated that farm households in developing economies are able to protect consumption from idiosyncratic crop shocks, little evidence shows how this is achieved. This paper examines the extent to which labor markets allow households to shift labor from farm to off-farm employment, and the extent to which such a shift explains the observed lack of correlation between consumption and idiosyncratic crop shocks. The empirical analysis uses a novel measure of the idiosyncratic crop income shock which utilizes information on start-of-season cropping choices to more accurately estimate household expectations of weather.

Tax avoidance and the deadweight loss of the income tax

Abstract: Traditional analyses of the income tax greatly underestimate deadweight losses by ignoring its effect on forms of compensation and patterns of consumption. The full deadweight loss is easily calculated using the compensated elasticity of taxable income to changes in tax rates because leisure, excludable income, and deductible consumption are a Hicksian composite good. Microeconomic estimates imply a deadweight loss of as much as 30% of revenue or more than ten times Harberger's classic 1964 estimate. The relative deadweight loss caused by increasing existing tax rates is substantially greater and may exceed $2 per $1 of revenue.

The economics of smoking

Abstract: While the tobacco industry ranks among the most substantial and successful of economic enterprises, tobacco consumption is associated with more deaths than any other product. Economic analysis of the markets for tobacco products, particularly cigarettes, has contributed considerable insight to debates about the importance of the industry and the appropriate roles of public policy in grappling with the health consequences of tobacco. Certainly the most significant example of this phenomenon has been the rapidly expanding and increasingly sophisticated body of research on the effects of price increases on cigarette consumption. Because excise tax comprises an important component of price, the resultant literature has played a prominent role in legislative debates about using taxation as a principal tool to discourage smoking. In addition to informing legislative debates, this literature has contributed both theory and empirical evidence to the growing interest in modeling the demand for addictive products.This chapter examines this body of research in detail, as well as a variety of equity and efficiency concerns accompanying debates about cigarette taxation. Coverage also includes economic analysis of the role of other tobacco control policies, such as restrictions on advertising, of special interest due to their prominence in debates about tobacco control. The chapter concludes with consideration of research addressing the validity of the tobacco industry's argument that its contributions to employment, tax revenues, and trade balances are vital to the economic health of states and nations. This argument is one of the industry's principal weapons in its battle against policy measures intended to reduce tobacco product consumption.

The Reaction of Household Consumption to Predictable Changes in Social Security Taxes

Abstract: The key implication of rational expectations and the basic life-cycle/permanent-income hypothesis: that predictable changes in income have no effect on the growth rate of consumption expenditures, is examined. This implication is important for understanding the effectiveness and optimal timing of fiscal policy, the causes and propagation of business cycles, and the effects of income fluctuations on the growth rate of the economy. Using household-level consumption data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, whether expenditures on nondurable goods increase contemporaneously with predictable changes in Social Security tax withholding is tested. It is found that households do change their consumption expenditures in response to the predictable fluctuations in income induced by the Social Security tax system.

Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation

Abstract: An availability cascade is a self-reinforcing process of collective belief formation by which an expressed perception triggers a chain reaction that gives the perception of increasing plausibility through its rising availability in public discourse. The driving mechanism involves a combination of informational and reputational motives: Individuals endorse the perception partly by learning from the apparent beliefs of others and partly by distorting their public responses in the interest of maintaining social acceptance. Availability entrepreneurs - activists who manipulate the content of public discourse - strive to trigger availability cascades likely to advance their agendas. Their availability campaigns may yield social benefits, but sometimes they bring harm, which suggests a need for safeguards. Focusing on the role of mass pressures in the regulation of risks associated with production, consumption, and the environment, Professor Timur Kuran and Cass R. Sunstein analyze availability cascades and suggest reforms to alleviate their potential hazards. Their proposals include new governmental structures designed to give civil servants better insulation against mass demands for regulatory change and an easily accessible scientific database to reduce people's dependence on popular (mis)perceptions.

Uncertain Medical Expenses and Precautionary Saving Near the End of the Life Cycle

Abstract: This paper introduces a dynamic, structural model of household consumption decisions in which elderly families consider the effects of uncertain future medical expenses when deciding current levels of consumption. The model with uncertain medical expenses implies a potentially important role for precautionary saving incentives to explain slow rates of dissaving among elderly Americans during retirement. Rather than just simulating the stochastic dynamic model, preference parameters are estimated using panel data on health, wealth and expenditures for retired families. The health uncertainty model predicts consumption levels closer to observed expenditures than a life cycle model with uncertain longevity. However, elderly families typically dissave their financial assets more slowly than even the baseline health uncertainty model predicts is optimal.

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Abstract: We provide an introduction to optimal fiscal and monetary policy using the primal approach to optimal taxation. We use this approach to address how fiscal and monetary policy should be set over the long run and over the business cycle.We find four substantive lessons for policymaking: Capital income taxes should be high initially and then roughly zero; tax rates on labor and consumption should be roughly constant; state-contingent taxes on assets should be used to provide insurance against adverse shocks; and monetary policy should be conducted so as to keep nominal interest rates close to zero.We begin by studying optimal taxation in a static context. We then develop a general framework to analyze optimal fiscal policy. Finally, we analyze optimal monetary policy in three commonly used models of money: a cash-credit economy, a money-in-the-utility-function economy, and a shopping-time economy.

Estimating Portfolio and Consumption Choice: A Conditional Euler Equations Approach

Abstract: This paper develops a nonparametric approach to examine how portfolio and consumption choice depends on variables that forecast time-varying investment opportunities. I estimate single-period and multiperiod portfolio and consumption rules of an investor with constant relative risk aversion and a one-month to 20year horizon. The investor allocates wealth to the NYSE index and a 30-day Treasury bill. I find that the portfolio choice varies significantly with the dividend yield, default premium, term premium, and lagged excess return. Furthermore, the optimal decisions depend on the investor's horizon and rebalancing frequency. How DOES PORTFOLIO AND CONSUMPTION CHOICE depend on variables that forecast time-varying investment opportunities? Prior studies that address this question assume a statistical model relating returns to forecasting variables and solve for an investor's portfolio and consumption choice using estimates of the implied conditional distribution of returns. As a result, their answers are shaped as much by modeling assumptions as by the data. An incorrect model of how returns relate to forecasting variables can yield inconsistent portfolio and consumption choice estimates and invalid inferences. This paper develops and implements an econometric approach that is robust to such model misspecification. Sample analogues of the conditional Euler equations, the first-order conditions of the investor's expected utility maximization, yield consistent estimates shaped by the data. I modify the method of moments approach of Hansen and Singleton (1982). I fix the parameters of an individual investor's utility function and estimate the optimal wealth and consumption process, and thereby the investor's portfolio and consumption rules, from sample analogues of the conditional Euler equations. In contrast, Hansen and Singleton use observations of the aggregate wealth and consumption process to estimate the parameters of the representative investor's utility function from otherwise identical moment conditions.

Loss aversion in a consumption-savings model

Abstract: We propose a model of consumption and saving based on Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory that implies a fundamental asymmetry in consumption behavior inconsistent with other models of consumption. When there is sufficient income uncertainty, a person resists lowering consumption in response to bad news about future income. This resistance is greater than the resistance to increasing consumption in response to good news. We present empirical evidence from five countries that confirms this behavior.

Attribute-Level Performance, Satisfaction, and Behavioral Intentions Over Time: A Consumption-System Approach

Abstract: Instead of offering products or services alone, increasingly, firms and their partners are offering consumption systems. Consumption systems are offerings characterized by a significant product and service subsystem, as well as a pattern of consumption in which consumption occurs in multiple episodes over time. The authors develop a theoretical model for conceptualizing satisfaction with consumption systems and empirically test it using longitudinal data from 5206 automobile owners. Results show that an intertemporal examination of attribute-level performance, satisfaction, and behavioral intentions can improve an understanding of their relationships because these relationships change as the consumption of the product unfolds. For example, on the basis of their salience, attribute weights in determining satisfaction shift over time. Furthermore, the crossover effect of product and service satisfaction in determining intentions toward the manufacturer and the service provider is asymmetric, and this asymmetry reverses over time. Service satisfaction initially has a much larger impact in determining intentions toward the manufacturer, but later, product satisfaction is more influential in generating intentions toward the service provider and manufacturer. The results show that there is no direct link between satisfaction and behavioral intentions. Rather, satisfaction affects behavioral intentions in the future through a dual-mediation route.

Chapter 1 Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series

Abstract: This chapter examines the empirical relationship in the postwar United States between the aggregate business cycle and various aspects of the macroeconomy, such as production, interest rates, prices, productivity, sectoral employment, investment, income, and consumption. This is done by examining the strength of the relationship between the aggregate cycle and the cyclical components of individual time series, whether individual series lead or lag the cycle, and whether individual series are useful in predicting aggregate fluctuations. The chapter also reviews some additional empirical regularities in the US economy, including the Phillips curve and some long-run relationships, in particular long run money demand, long run properties of interest rates and the yield curve, and the long run properties of the shares in output of consumption, investment and government spending.

Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption

Abstract: In this article we argue that the life-cycle model that allows demographics to affect household preferences and relaxes the assumption of certainty equivalence can generate hump-shaped consumption profiles over age that are very similar to those observed in household-level data sources and, in particular, match the differences in shape across different education groups. Liquidity constraints or myopia are not required to explain the empirical features of observed life-cycle patterns.

Are wages habit-forming? Evidence from micro data

Abstract: Although utility functions play a central role in economics, the axiom that utility depends only on the absolute levels of its arguments is rarely tested. This paper uses panel data on 2000 British employees who remain with the same employer and who are not promoted from one wave to the next. It is shown that one important measure of well-being, overall job satisfaction, is strongly positively correlated with the change in the worker’s pay between waves, but is unrelated to the current level of pay. Empirical tests suggest that a reference-dependent satisfaction function, where individual well-being depends on current pay relative to past pay, is more consistent with these regression results than are productivity or agency explanations of increasing wage profiles. Some evidence is presented of greater job satisfaction effects of pay rises for lower paid, less well-educated and younger workers. These results provide some micro evidence consistent with the theory, widespread in social science, of habituation: individuals may become used to any given level of consumption or income. As such, they tie in with the finding that a country’s well-being, as measured by the average happiness of its citizens, is only weakly correlated with its per capita GNP.

Rural Futures: The Consumption Countryside and its Regulation

Abstract: The paper outlines some of the main features of the ‘political and social economy of rural space’ from a British perspective. It details the trajectory of what is termed the ‘consumption countryside’ that is, the sets of increasingly diverse ruralities which tie rural space and people to the provision of goods and services that can be consumed by those in and beyond their particular boundaries. These trends have significance for the development of European rural social science; and particularly the development of a comparative rural sociology which can analyse the differentiation of rural space. In doing so, the paper suggests the need to forge a critical and interpretative set of new relations with the state (supra, national and, regional and local), and to play a much more engaging part in the differential evolution of new rural governance structures.

Making Complementary Choices in Consumption Episodes: Highlighting versus Balancing:

Abstract: Although most research on consumer decision making has focused on individual choices, the majority of products are purchased and consumed with other products (e.g., an appetizer, an entree, and a d...