Showing papers on "Convective available potential energy published in 2014"

Representing Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Convection in Large-Scale Models

Abstract: A new diagnostic convective closure, which is dependent on convective available potential energy (CAPE), is derived under the quasi-equilibrium assumption for the free troposphere subject to boundary layer forcing. The closure involves a convective adjustment time scale for the free troposphere and a coupling coefficient between the free troposphere and the boundary layer based on different time scales over land and ocean. Earlier studies with the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) have already demonstrated the model's ability to realistically represent tropical convectively coupled waves and synoptic variability with use of the "standard" CAPE closure, given realistic entrainment rates. A comparison of low-resolution seasonal integrations and high-resolution short-range forecasts against complementary satellite and radar data shows that with the extended CAPE closure it is also possible, independent of model resolution and time step, to realistically represent nonequilibrium convection such as the diurnal cycle of convection and the convection tied to advective boundary layers, although representing the late night convection over land remains a challenge. A more in-depth regional analysis of the diurnal cycle and the closure is provided for the continental United States and particularly Africa, including comparison with data from satellites and a cloud-resolving model (CRM). Consequences for global numerical weather prediction (NWP) are not only a better phase representation of convection, but also better forecasts of its spatial distribution and local intensity.

A Unified Convection Scheme (UNICON). Part I: Formulation

Abstract: The author develops a unified convection scheme (UNICON) that parameterizes relative (i.e., with respect to the grid-mean vertical flow) subgrid vertical transport by nonlocal asymmetric turbulent eddies. UNICON is a process-based model of subgrid convective plumes and mesoscale organized flow without relying on any quasi-equilibrium assumptions such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) or convective inhibition (CIN) closures. In combination with a relative subgrid vertical transport scheme by local symmetric turbulent eddies and a grid-scale advection scheme, UNICON simulates vertical transport of water species and conservative scalars without double counting at any horizontal resolution.UNICON simulates all dry–moist, forced–free, and shallow–deep convection within a single framework in a seamless, consistent, and unified way. It diagnoses the vertical profiles of the macrophysics (fractional area, plume radius, and number density) as well as the microphysics (production and evaporati...

Initiation, maintenance, and properties of convection in an extreme rainfall event during SCMREX: Observational analysis

Abstract: A long-lived mesoscale convective system (MCS) with extreme rainfall over the western coastal region of Guangdong on 10 May 2013 during the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) is studied. The environmental conditions are characterized by little convective inhibition, low-lifting condensation level, moderate convective available potential energy and precipitable water, and lack of low-level jets from the tropical ocean. Repeated convective back building and subsequent northeastward “echo training” of convective cells are found during the MCS's development stages. However, the initiation/maintenance factors and organization of convection differ significantly during the earlier and later stages. From midnight to early morning, convection is continuously initiated as southeasterly flows near the surface impinge on the east side of mesoscale mountains near the coastal lines and then moves northeastward, leading to formation of two quasi-stationary rainbands. From early morning to early afternoon, new convection is repeatedly triggered along a mesoscale boundary between precipitation-induced cold outflows and warm air from South China Sea and Gulf of Tokin, resulting in the formation of “band training” of several parallel rainbands that move eastward in a later time, i.e., two scales of “training” of convective elements are found. As the MCS dissipates, a stronger squall line moves into the region from the west and passes over within about 3.5 h, contributing about 10%–15% to the total rainfall amount. It is concluded that terrain, near-surface winds, warm advection from the upstream ocean in the boundary layer, and precipitation-generated cold outflows play important roles in initiating and maintaining the extreme rain-producing MCS.

A climatology of Australian severe thunderstorm environments 1979–2011: inter-annual variability and ENSO influence

Abstract: Severe thunderstorms present a significant threat to property and life in Australia during the warm season (September to April). However, these relatively infrequent events are poorly understood in terms of frequency and occurrence for much of the continent due to a lack of in-situ observations. With the spectre of a changing climate, there is an increasing need to understand thunderstorms and their impact on Australia, both in the past and for the future. To facilitate this, the relationship between severe thunderstorms and their associated environments is used as a probabilistic proxy for direct observations. To establish these conditions, a proximity climatology of environments was developed for observed severe thunderstorms in Australia during the period 2003–2010 using the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Proximity soundings from the reanalysis for observed severe thunderstorms were used to develop covariate discriminants that identify the increased probability of an environment to produce severe thunderstorms. The covariates use a combination of ingredients describing instability (mixed-layer convective available potential energy) and potential for organized severe convection (deep-layer wind shear). These discriminants have been extrapolated to produce a climatology of environments favourable to the development of severe thunderstorms over the period 1979–2011 from this reanalysis. The inter-annual variations in both the spatial and temporal distribution of convective environments over Australia were analysed, with particular focus on the influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments. These results suggest that while ENSO has a substantial impact on the spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm environments over the continent, the link to frequency is more uncertain.

Composite VORTEX2 Supercell Environments from Near-Storm Soundings

Abstract: Three-dimensional composite analyses using 134 soundings from the second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) reveal the nature of near-storm variability in the environments of supercell thunderstorms. Based upon the full analysis, it appears that vertical wind shear increases as one approaches a supercell within the inflow sector, providing favorable conditions for supercell maintenance (and possibly tornado formation) despite small amounts of low-level cooling near the storm. The seven analyzed tornadic supercells have a composite environment that is clearly more impressive (in terms of widely used metrics) than that of the five analyzed nontornadic supercells, including more convective available potential energy (CAPE), more vertical wind shear, higher boundary layer relative humidity, and lower tropospheric horizontal vorticity that is more streamwise in the near-storm inflow. The widely used supercell composite parameter (SCP) and significant tornado param...

Urban signatures in the spatial clustering of summer heavy rainfall events over the Beijing metropolitan region

Abstract: The climatology of summer heavy rainfall events over the Beijing metropolitan region during 2008–2012 is investigated with the aid of an observational network of rain gauges and the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two “hot spots” of higher frequency of summer heavy rainfall events are observed. One is located over the urban core region and the other resides in the climatological downwind region. Two comparative sets of model runs are designed to assess the effect of land surface properties with and without the presence of the city on the model simulation results. By comparing the two sets of model runs, the changes of rainfall statistics, behaviors of storm cells, and variables related to convection due to urbanization are analyzed and quantified. The intensity of heavy rainfall is increased over the urban and downwind region, corresponding to the locations of the two observed hot spots based on rain gauges. The changes of rainfall statistics suggest that the probability distribution of rainfall is shifted toward a heavier upper tail distribution. The Lagrangian properties of storm cells are examined using a newly developed Storm-Cell Identification procedure. High-echo storm cells tend to split approaching the city and merge in the downwind region. The level of free convection and the height of the planetary boundary layer are significantly increased over the urban region and maximum convective available potential energy is decreased. Increased sensible heat flux from the urban surfaces plays a dominant role in the modification of simulated rainfall from a climatological perspective.

Evaluation of Trigger Functions for Convective Parameterization Schemes Using Observations

Abstract: Realistic simulation of different modes of atmospheric variability ranging from diurnal cycle to interannual variation in global climate models (GCMs) depends crucially on the convection trigger criteria. In this study, using the data from constrained variational analysis by the Atmospheric System Research program for single-column models (SCM), the performance of the commonly used convective trigger functions in GCMs is evaluated based on the equitable threat score (ETS) value, a widely used forecast verification metric. From the ETS score, three consistently better-performing trigger functions were identified. They are based on the dilute and undilute convective available potential energy (CAPE) generation rate from large-scale forcing in the free troposphere (hereafter dCAPE) and parcel buoyancy at the lifting condensation level (Bechtold scheme). The key variables used to define these trigger functions are examined in detail. It is found that the dilute dCAPE trigger function performs the best...

The Effects of Great Plains Irrigation on the Surface Energy Balance, Regional Circulation, and Precipitation

Abstract: Irrigation provides a needed source of water in regions of low precipitation. Adding water to a region that would otherwise see little natural precipitation alters the partitioning of surface energy fluxes, the evolution of the planetary boundary layer, and the atmospheric transport of water vapor. The effects of irrigation are investigated in this paper through the employment of the Advanced Research (ARW) Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) using a pair of simulations representing the extremes of an irrigated and non-irrigated U.S. Great Plains region. In common with previous studies, irrigation in the Great Plains alters the radiation budget by increasing latent heat flux and cooling the surface temperatures. These effects increase the net radiation at the surface, channeling that energy into additional latent heat flux, which increases convective available potential energy and provides downstream convective systems with additional energy and moisture. Most noteworthy in this study is the substantial influence of irrigation on the structure of the Great Plains Low-level Jet (GPLLJ). The simulation employing irrigation is characterized by a positive 850-mb geopotential height anomaly, a result interpreted by quasi-geostrophic theory to be a response to low-level irrigation-induced cooling. The modulation of the regional-scale height pattern associated with the GPLLJ results in weaker flow southeast of the 850-mb anomaly and stronger flow to the northwest. Increased latent heat flux in the irrigated simulation is greater than the decrease in regional transport, resulting in a net increase in atmospheric moisture and a nearly 50% increase in July precipitation downstream of irrigated regions without any change to the number of precipitation events.

Severe-Thunderstorm Reanalysis Environments and Collocated Radiosonde Observations

Abstract: This research compares reanalysis-derived proxy soundings from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) with collocated observed radiosonde data across the central and eastern United States during the period 2000–11: 23 important parameters used for forecasting severe convection are examined. Kinematic variables such as 0–6-km bulk wind shear are best represented by this reanalysis, whereas thermodynamic variables such as convective available potential energy exhibit regional biases and are generally overestimated by the reanalysis. For thermodynamic parameters, parcel-ascent choice is an important consideration because of large differences in reanalysis low-level moisture fields versus observed ones. Results herein provide researchers with potential strengths and limitations of using NARR data for the purposes of depicting climatological information for hazardous convective weather and initializing model simulations. Similar studies should be considered for other reanalysis datasets.

Temperature and CAPE Dependence of Rainfall Extremes in the Eastern United States

Abstract: We analyze how extreme rainfall intensities in the Eastern United States depend on temperature T, dew point temperature Td, and convective available potential energy CAPE, in addition to geographic sub-region, season, and averaging duration. When using data for the entire year, rainfall intensity has a quasi Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) dependence on T, with super-CC slope in a limited temperature range and a maximum around 25°C. While general, these features vary with averaging duration, season, the quantile of rainfall intensity, and to some extent geographic sub-region. By using Td and CAPE as regressors, we separate the effects of temperature on rainfall extremes via increased atmospheric water content and via enhanced atmospheric convection. The two contributions have comparable magnitudes, pointing at the need to consider both Td and atmospheric stability parameters when assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall extremes.

Precipitation and air pollution at mountain and plain stations in northern China: Insights gained from observations and modeling

Abstract: We analyzed 40 year data sets of daily average visibility (a proxy for surface aerosol concentration) and hourly precipitation at seven weather stations, including three stations located on the Taihang Mountains, during the summertime in northern China. There was no significant trend in summertime total precipitation at almost all stations. However, light rain decreased, whereas heavy rain increased as visibility decreased over the period studied. The decrease in light rain was seen in both orographic-forced shallow clouds and mesoscale stratiform clouds. The consistent trends in observed changes in visibility, precipitation, and orographic factor appear to be a testimony to the effects of aerosols. The potential impact of large-scale environmental factors, such as precipitable water, convective available potential energy, and vertical wind shear, on precipitation was investigated. No direct links were found. To validate our observational hypothesis about aerosol effects, Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with spectral-bin microphysics at the cloud-resolving scale were conducted. Model results confirmed the role of aerosol indirect effects in reducing the light rain amount and frequency in the mountainous area for both orographic-forced shallow clouds and mesoscale stratiform clouds and in eliciting a different response in the neighboring plains. The opposite response of light rain to the increase in pollution when there is no terrain included in the model suggests that orography is likely a significant factor contributing to the opposite trends in light rain seen in mountainous and plain areas.

Future Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments. Part II: The Influence of a Strongly Warming Climate on Convective Environments

Abstract: The influence of a warming climate on the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments in Australia was explored using two global climate models: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark, version 3.6 (CSIRO Mk3.6), and the Cubic-Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM). These models have previously been evaluated and found to be capable of reproducing a useful climatology for the twentieth-century period (1980–2000). Analyzing the changes between the historical period and high warming climate scenarios for the period 2079–99 has allowed estimation of the potential convective future for the continent. Based on these simulations, significant increases to the frequency of severe thunderstorm environments will likely occur for northern and eastern Australia in a warmed climate. This change is a response to increasing convective available potential energy from higher continental moisture, particularly in proximity to warm sea surface temperatures. Despite decreases to the frequency...

An Empirical Relation between U.S. Tornado Activity and Monthly Environmental Parameters

Abstract: In previous work the authors demonstrated an empirical relation, in the form of an index, between U.S. monthly tornado activity and monthly averaged environmental parameters. Here a detailed comparison is made between the index and reported tornado activity. The index is a function of two environmental parameters taken from the North American Regional Reanalysis: convective precipitation (cPrcp) and storm relative helicity (SRH). Additional environmental parameters are considered for inclusion in the index, among them convective available potential energy, but their inclusion does not significantly improve the overall climatological performance of the index. The aggregate climatological dependence of reported monthly U.S. tornado numbers on cPrcp and SRH is well described by the index, although it fails to capture nonsupercell and cool season tornadoes. The contributions of the two environmental parameters to the index annual cycle and spatial distribution are examined with the seasonality of cPrc...

Climatology of lightning over Indian region and its relationship with convective available potential energy

Abstract: The spatial distribution of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and lightning activity in different seasons over the Indian region have been studied to find out the dependence of lightning activity on CAPE. It is observed that the lightning activity over the Indian region is not controlled by CAPE alone during pre-monsoon season. The prevailing meteorological conditions and orography over northern India, central India, northeast Pakistan and Bangladesh provide favourable conditions for formation of thunderstorms, and hence, lightning activity is higher in spite of lower value of CAPE over these regions compared to other parts of Indian region. During the monsoon season, lightning activity and CAPE are found to be better correlated with each other compared to other seasons over central and north India. It has been found that the high mountains of Himalayas generate strong updrafts necessary for the deep convective events by interacting with prevailing winds and the diabatic heating and radiative cooling of mountaintops create conditions favourable for convections. The diurnal variation of lightning activity at stations over the foothills of Himalayas showing a strong peak in lighting activity after midnight supports the idea that radiative cooling at mountaintops can create a moisture convergence at foothills and trigger the convections.

A climatology of convective available potential energy in Great Britain

Abstract: Deep moist convection (DMC) requires three ingredients: instability, moisture and lift. One measure that incorporates two of these, instability and moisture, is convective available potential energy (CAPE). A 10-year climatology of CAPE over Great Britain is presented covering the period 1 June 2002–31 May 2012, based on a 9-km grid spacing implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with two-way interactive nesting. Appropriate tests are carried out to verify model reliability by comparing simulated and observed CAPE. CAPE is found to be highly variable both spatially and temporally, the highest values being produced during Spanish plume events. A strong relationship is confirmed between surface temperature and CAPE magnitude, the highest CAPE across Great Britain during this period locally exceeding 3000 J kg−1. In an average year, 15 days produce CAPE in excess of 500 J kg−1 somewhere in Great Britain, 4 days > 1000 J kg−1 and 1 day > 1500 J kg−1. Three main CAPE seasons are identified: ‘land dominated CAPE’ between April and September, ‘sea dominated CAPE’ between September and January and ‘low CAPE’ from January to April. The southern North Sea witnesses significant CAPE all year round because of a combination of favourable synoptic situations, including warm air plumes in spring/summer and cold air incursions over warmer seas in winter. CAPE is not a direct predictor of thunderstorm incidence, due in part to the confounding effect of convective inhibition (CIN). However, at the annual scale, when comparing against an existing days of thunder climatology, we observe a close correspondence with >500 J kg−1 CAPE frequency.

Increasing the credibility of regional climate simulations by introducing subgrid‐scale cloud‐radiation interactions

Abstract: The radiation schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have previously not accounted for the presence of subgrid-scale cumulus clouds, thereby resulting in unattenuated shortwave radiation, which can lead to overly energetic convection and overpredicted surface precipitation. This deficiency can become problematic when applying WRF as a regional climate model (RCM). Therefore, modifications were made to the WRF model to allow the Kain–Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization to provide subgrid-scale cloud fraction and condensate feedback to the rapid radiative transfer model–global (RRTMG) shortwave and longwave radiation schemes. The effects of these changes are analyzed via 3 year simulations using the standard and modified versions of WRF, comparing the modeled results with the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data, as well as with available data from the Surface Radiation Network and Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System. During the summer period, including subgrid cloudiness estimated by KF in the RRTMG reduces the surface shortwave radiation, leading to less buoyant energy, which is reflected in a smaller diabatic convective available potential energy, thereby alleviating the overly energetic convection. Overall, these changes have reduced the overprediction of monthly, regionally averaged precipitation during summer for this RCM application, e.g., by as much as 49 mm for the southeastern U.S., to within 0.7% of the NARR value of 221 mm. These code modifications have been incorporated as an option available in the latest version of WRF (v3.6).

Interactions between cumulus convection and its environment as revealed by the MC3E sounding array

Abstract: This study attempts to understand interactions between midlatitude convective systems and their environments through a heat and moisture budget analysis using the sounding data collected from the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) in central Oklahoma. Distinct large-scale structures and diabatic heating and drying profiles are presented for cases of weaker and elevated thunderstorms as well as intense squall line and supercell thunderstorm events during the campaign. The elevated cell events were nocturnal convective systems occurring in an environment having low convective available potential energy (CAPE) and a very dry boundary layer. In contrast, deeper convective events happened during the morning into early afternoon within an environment associated with large CAPE and a near-saturated boundary layer. As the systems reached maturity, the diagnosed diabatic heating in the latter deep convective cases was much stronger and of greater vertical extent than the former. Both groups showed considerable diabatic cooling in the lower troposphere, associated with the evaporation of precipitation and low-level clouds. The horizontal advection of moisture also played a dominant role in moistening the lower troposphere, particularly for the deeper convective events, wherein the near surface southeasterly flow allows persistent low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico to support convection. The moisture convergence often was present before these systems develop, suggesting a strong correlation between the large-scale moisture convergence and convection. Sensitivity tests indicated that the uncertainty in the surface precipitation and the size of analysis domain mainly affected the magnitude of these analyzed fields rather than their vertical structures.

The Dependence of ITCZ Structure on Model Resolution and Dynamical Core in Aquaplanet Simulations

Abstract: Aquaplanet simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4), with the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Atmosphere (MPAS-A) and High-Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME) dynamical cores and using zonally symmetric sea surface temperature (SST) structure are studied to understand the dependence of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) structure on resolution and dynamical core. While all resolutions in HOMME and the low-resolution MPAS-A simulations give a single equatorial peak in zonal mean precipitation, the high-resolution MPAS-A simulations give a double ITCZ with precipitation peaking around 2°–3° on either side of the equator. This study reveals that the structure of ITCZ is dependent on the feedbacks between convection and large-scale circulation. It is shown that the difference in specific humidity between HOMME and MPAS-A can lead to different latitudinal distributions of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) by influencing latent heat release by clo...

Future convective environments using NARCCAP

Abstract: This study examines trends in atmospheric environments conducive to the development of severe convection in the United States, as simulated by a regional model forced with output from a global climate model. Meteorological variables necessary for severe convection from current (1981–1995) and future (2041–2065) epochs were compared. Results indicate a statistically significant increase in the number of significant severe weather environments in the Northeast United States, Great Lakes, and Southeast Canada regions. Regional severe weather environment increases can be attributed to both an increase in convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the number of times deep-layer wind shear and CAPE juxtaposition. Given the current distribution of severe convective weather, these changes would alter the current physical risk of severe convective storms across a large population.

Morphology of the vertical structure of precipitation over India and adjoining oceans based on long‐term measurements of TRMM PR

Abstract: The spatial and seasonal variability of the vertical structure of precipitation has been studied using 15 years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Precipitation Radar (TRMM PR) version 7 data over India and adjoining oceans. Special emphasis has been put on six different climatic rain regimes and on different types of precipitation including the virga rain. The distribution of reflectivity factor (Z) above the freezing level height is broader in northwest India (NWI) and narrower over the Arabian Sea and west coast of India (ASWC) than in other selected regions, due to dominance of deep and shallow convective rain, respectively, in those regions. The height variation of contours in normalized distributions for Z indicates that evaporation of raindrops (low-level hydrometeor growth) could be significant in NWI (ASWC and Bay of Bengal). All the above features show clear seasonal variation and are observed predominantly during the southwest monsoon. The occurrence of virga rain clearly shows land-ocean contrast (less over the oceans) and seasonal variation (preponderant during premonsoon). Among different rain categories, the stratiform (convective) rain had highest (lowest) fraction of virga rain of >15–30% (<10%) over land regions. 1. The storm height (SH) vertical distributions show a peak in the vicinity of bright band (BB) in all regions, except for those regions and seasons, where convective precipitation is dominant. The well-defined BB feature and SH exhibit significant seasonal and regional variations, which are linked to variations in the occurrence of stratiform rain and height of BB. The spatial and seasonal variations of mean SH and the occurrence of deep and overshooting convective rain show good correspondence with the spatial variation of convective available potential energy.

Stability and Charging Characteristics of the Comma Head Region of Continental Winter Cyclones

Abstract: This paper presents analyses of the finescale structure of convection in the comma head of two continental winter cyclones and a 16-storm climatology analyzing the distribution of lightning within the comma head. A case study of a deep cyclone is presented illustrating how upper-tropospheric dry air associated with the dry slot can intrude over moist Gulf air, creating two zones of precipitation within the comma head: a northern zone characterized by deep stratiform clouds topped by generating cells and a southern zone marked by elevated convection. Lightning, when it occurred, originated from the elevated convection. A second case study of a cutoff low is presented to examine the relationship between lightning flashes and wintertime convection. Updrafts within convective cells in both storms approached 6–8 m s−1, and convective available potential energy in the cell environment reached approximately 50–250 J kg−1. Radar measurements obtained in convective updraft regions showed enhanced spectral ...

Transport from convective overshooting of the extratropical tropopause and the role of large‐scale lower stratosphere stability

Abstract: Simulations of observed convective systems with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model are used to test the influence of the large-scale lower stratosphere stability environment on the vertical extent of convective overshooting and transport above the extratropical tropopause. Three unique environments are identified (double tropopause, stratospheric intrusion, and single tropopause), and representative cases with comparable magnitudes of convective available potential energy are selected for simulation. Convective injection into the extratropical lower stratosphere is found to be deepest for the double-tropopause case (up to 4 km above the lapse-rate tropopause) and at comparable altitudes for the remaining cases (up to 2 km above the lapse-rate tropopause). All simulations show evidence of gravity wave breaking near the overshooting convective top, consistent with the identification of its role as a transport mechanism in previous studies. Simulations for the double-tropopause case, however, also show evidence of direct mixing of the overshooting top into the lower stratosphere, which is responsible for the highest levels of injection in that case. In addition, the choice of bulk microphysical parameterization for ARW-WRF simulations is found to have little impact on the transport characteristics for each case.

The impact of two land-surface schemes on the characteristics of summer precipitation over East Asia from the RegCM4 simulations

Abstract: This study evaluates the performance of the regional climate model RegCM4, which incorporates the Biosphere–Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and Community Land Model (CLM3) land-surface schemes, in simulating the summer precipitation over East Asia. The characteristics of summer precipitation are analysed in terms of mean amount, frequency and intensity of daily precipitation. The results show that the simulation of the summer precipitation is significantly sensitive to the choices of the land-surface schemes. Despite several deficiencies, the simulation of daily precipitation with CLM3 exhibits superior performance to that with BATS. The BATS simulation tends to systematically overestimate both precipitation frequency and intensity, and hence total precipitation across the whole domain. On the other hand, the CLM3 simulation substantially reduces the wet biases produced in the BATS simulation. The difference in performance between the two simulations mainly results from convective precipitation rather than large-scale precipitation. Since excessive convective precipitation tends to suppress large-scale precipitation, the BATS simulation also exhibits a limitation in properly simulating the ratio of convective and large-scale precipitation. Such behaviour can be explained by the influence of soil moisture on convective precipitation. Persistently wetter soil moisture in the BATS land-surface scheme can modulate the partitioning of surface heat fluxes inadequately, leading to overestimation of latent heat flux and underestimation of sensible heat flux over South China, in particular. Consequently, it affects the thermodynamic structure (as described by the stability indices), which in turn affects the atmospheric stability to determine the convective activity. The CLM3 simulation generates a more realistic representation of equivalent potential temperature, convective available potential energy and convective inhibition, and thus improves the characteristics of daily precipitation.

Mechanisms Governing the Persistence and Diurnal Cycle of a Heavy Rainfall Corridor

Abstract: Observations and convection-permitting simulations are used to study a 12-day warm-season heavy precipitation corridor over the central U.S. plains and Mississippi River valley regions. Such precipitation corridors, defined by narrow latitudinal widths (~3°–4°) and only modest north–south drifts of their centroids (<2° day−1), often yield extreme total precipitation (100–250 mm), resulting in both short-term and seasonal impacts on the regional hydrologic cycle.The corridor precipitation is predominately nocturnal and located several hundred kilometers north of a quasi-stationary surface front. There, hot, dry air from the daytime boundary layer located underneath a persistent upper-level anticyclone requires large vertical displacements along the axis of the southerly low-level jet (LLJ) above the front to eliminate convection inhibition (CIN). Composites reveal ~500 J kg−1 of average convective available potential energy (CAPE) when this air reaches the southern edge of the precipitation corrido...

Improvements in WRF simulation skills of southeastern United States summer rainfall: physical parameterization and horizontal resolution

Abstract: Realistic regional climate simulations are important in understanding the mechanisms of summer rainfall in the southeastern United States (SE US) and in making seasonal predictions In this study, skills of SE US summer rainfall simulation at a 15-km resolution are evaluated using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model driven by climate forecast system reanalysis data Influences of parameterization schemes and model resolution on the rainfall are investigated It is shown that the WRF simulations for SE US summer rainfall are most sensitive to cumulus schemes, moderately sensitive to planetary boundary layer schemes, and less sensitive to microphysics schemes Among five WRF cumulus schemes analyzed in this study, the Zhang–McFarlane scheme outperforms the other four Further analysis suggests that the superior performance of the Zhang–McFarlane scheme is attributable primarily to its capability of representing rainfall-triggering processes over the SE US, especially the positive relationship between convective available potential energy and rainfall In addition, simulated rainfall using the Zhang–McFarlane scheme at the 15-km resolution is compared with that at a 3-km convection-permitting resolution without cumulus scheme to test whether the increased horizontal resolution can further improve the SE US rainfall simulation Results indicate that the simulations at the 3-km resolution do not show obvious advantages over those at the 15-km resolution with the Zhang–McFarlane scheme In conclusion, our study suggests that in order to obtain a satisfactory simulation of SE US summer rainfall, choosing a cumulus scheme that can realistically represent the convective rainfall triggering mechanism may be more effective than solely increasing model resolution

Convective Instability Associated with the Eastward-Propagating Rainfall Episodes over Eastern China during the Warm Season

Abstract: Analysis of the latest satellite rainfall and reanalysis datasets from 1998 to 2012 demonstrates that eastward-propagating rainfall episodes, which typically occur in late night and morning, are determinant factors for the rainfall diurnal cycle and climate anomalies over eastern China. The episode growth and propagation are facilitated by an elevated layer of conditionally unstable air in a mesoscale zone at their eastern leading edge. The convective available potential energy (CAPE), despite convection consumption and nocturnal cooling, decreases only from a high value to a moderate one during episode duration. An estimate of the CAPE generation budget suggests that low-level horizontal advection and vertical lifting of the warm moist air can produce sufficient CAPE to balance other stabilization effects, sustaining the mesoscale maximum of convective instability ahead of rainfall episodes. These instability geneses are pronounced at the convection growth stage and linked closely to a mesoscale ...

Future Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments. Part I: A Novel Evaluation and Climatology of Convective Parameters from Two Climate Models for the Late Twentieth Century

Abstract: The influence of a warming climate on the occurrence of severe thunderstorms over Australia is, as yet, poorly understood. Based on methods used in the development of a climatology of observed severe thunderstorm environments over the continent, two climate models [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark, version 3.6 (CSIRO Mk3.6) and the Cubic-Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM)] have been used to produce simulated climatologies of ingredients and environments favorable to severe thunderstorms for the late twentieth century (1980‐2000). A novel evaluation of these model climatologies against data from both the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and reports of severe thunderstorms from observers is used to analyze the capability of the models to represent convective environments in the current climate. This evaluation examines the representation of thunderstorm-favorable environments in terms of their frequency, seasonal cycle, and spatial distribution, while presenting a framework for future evaluations of climate model convective parameters. Both models showed the capability to explain at least 75% of the spatial variance in both vertical wind shear and convective available potential energy (CAPE). CSIRO Mk3.6 struggled to either represent the diurnal cycle over a large portion of the continent or resolve the annual cycle, while in contrast CCAM showed a tendency to underestimate CAPE and 0‐6-km bulk magnitude vertical wind shear (S06). While spatial resolution likely contributes to rendering of features such as coastal moisture and significant topography, the distribution of severe thunderstorm environments is found to have greater sensitivity to model biases. This highlights the need for a consistent approachto evaluating convective parameters andseverethunderstorm environments in present-day climate: an example of which is presented here.

Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts over the United States Great Plains

Abstract: This study investigates the influences of soil moisture and vegetation on 30 h convective precipitation forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over the United States Great Plains with explicit treatment of convection. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used as initial and boundary conditions. We also used an adjusted soil moisture (uniformly adding 0.10 m3/m3 over all soil layers based on NARR biases) to determine whether using a simple observationally based adjustment of soil moisture forcing would provide more accurate simulations and how the soil moisture addition would impact meteorological parameters for different vegetation types. Current and extreme (forest and barren) land covers were examined. Compared to the current vegetation cover, the complete removal of vegetation produced substantially less precipitation, while conversion to forest led to small differences in precipitation. Adding 0.10 m3/m3 to the soil moisture with the current vegetation cover lowered the near surface temperature and increased the humidity to a similar degree as using a fully forested domain with no soil moisture adjustment. However, these temperature and humidity effects on convective available potential energy and moist enthalpy nearly canceled each other out, resulting in a limited precipitation response. Although no substantial changes in precipitation forecasts were found using the adjusted soil moisture, the similarity found between temperature and humidity forecasts using the increased soil moisture and those with a forested domain highlights the sensitivity of the model to soil moisture changes, reinforcing the need for accurate soil moisture initialization in numerical weather forecasting models.