Topic
Coverage probability
About: Coverage probability is a research topic. Over the lifetime, 2479 publications have been published within this topic receiving 53259 citations.
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TL;DR: In this article, an alternative to the accelerated failure time model is to regress the median of the failure time on the covariates and derive the limiting distributions of the estimated and adjusted empirical likelihood ratios for the vector of regression parameter.
35 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a modified empirical Bayes argument is used to construct confidence sets centered at improved estimators of the mean of a multivariate normal distribution, which have uniformly higher coverage probability than the usual confidence set (a sphere centered at the observations), with no increase in volume.
35 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a model averaging approach was proposed to produce accurate point forecasts of age-specific life expectancies, and the point and interval forecasts were compared among ten principal component methods, two random walk methods, and two univariate time-series methods.
Abstract: Background: Any improvement in the forecast accuracy of life expectancy would be beneficial for policy decision regarding the allocation of current and future resources. In this paper, I revisit some methods for forecasting age-specific life expectancies. Objective: This paper proposes a model averaging approach to produce accurate point forecasts of age-specific life expectancies. Methods: Illustrated by data from fourteen developed countries, we compare point and interval forecasts among ten principal component methods, two random walk methods, and two univariate time-series methods. Results: Based on averaged one-step-ahead and ten-step-ahead forecast errors, random walk with drift and Lee-Miller methods are the two most accurate methods for producing point forecasts. By combining their forecasts, point forecast accuracy is improved. As measured by averaged coverage probability deviance, the Hyndman-Ullah methods generally provide more accurate interval forecasts than the Lee-Carter methods. However, the Hyndman-Ullah methods produce wider half-widths of prediction interval than the Lee-Carter methods. Conclusions: Model averaging approach should be considered to produce more accurate point forecasts. Comments: This study is a sequel to another Demographic Research paper by Shang, Booth and Hyndman (2011), in which the authors compared the principal component methods for forecasting age-specific mortality rates and life expectancy at birth.
35 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors derived the exact closed-form SNR coverage probability for a single element, and with the moment matching method, a highly accurate approximation of SNR-coverage probability was formulated as the ratio of the upper incomplete Gamma function and Gamma function, allowing an arbitrary number of elements in the RIS.
Abstract: The reconfigurable intelligent surface (RIS) technique has received many interests, thanks to its advantages of low cost, easy deployment, and high controllability. It is acknowledged that the RIS can significantly improve the quality of signal transmission, especially in the line-of-sight-blocked scenarios. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the corresponding signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) coverage probability of RIS-aided communication systems. In this correspondence, we consider many practical issues to analyze the SNR coverage probability. We employ the realistic path loss model and Rayleigh fading model as large-scale and small-scale channel models, respectively. Meanwhile, we take the number and size of the RIS elements, as well as the placement of the RIS plane into considerations. We first derive the exact closed-form SNR coverage probability for a single element. Afterward, with the moment matching method, a highly accurate approximation of SNR coverage probability is formulated as the ratio of the upper incomplete Gamma function and Gamma function, allowing an arbitrary number of elements in the RIS. Finally, we comprehensively evaluate the impacts of essential factors on the SNR coverage probability, such as the number and size of the element, the coefficients of fading channel, and the angles of incidence and RIS plane. Overall, this work provides a succinct and general expression of SNR coverage probability, which can be helpful in the performance evaluation and practical implementation of the RIS.
35 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, point prediction and prediction intervals (PIs) of ANN based downscaling for mean monthly precipitation and temperature of two stations (Tabriz and Ardabil in North West of Iran) were evaluated using general circulation models (GCMs).
35 citations