Showing papers on "Credibility published in 1975"

The Portrayal of Men and Women in American Television Commercials.

Abstract: Summary The characteristics of adult male and female models in randomly selected television commercials were systematically coded, and several significant sex differences were discovered. More men than women are presented in television commercials, the basis for the credibility of those men and women who are presented differs as do their roles, their location, their arguments on behalf of a product, and the rewards they reap for using a product. These sex differences, which tend to portray women in a relatively unfavorable manner, are discussed in the context of research which suggests that peoples' sex-role behaviors and attitudes may be influenced by televised models.

Argumentation and critical decision making

Abstract: Preface Part One Principles 1 Defining Argumentation Elements of Argumentation Elements of Critical Decision Making Conclusion Projects/Exercises 2 Appraising Argumentation Argumentation and Being Reasonable The Bases of Reason in Argumentation Starting Points for Argumentation Conclusion Projects/Exercises 3 Making Sense of Argumentation Some Ways of Making Sense Alternative Dispute Resolution Conclusion Projects/Exercises 4 The Nature of Arguments The Model of an Argument Reasoning Processes Definitions as Argument The Analysis of Arguments Conclusion Projects/Exercises 5 Analysis in Argumentation Critical Analysis to Find a Proposition Critical Analysis of a Proposition Analysis of Claims Conclusion Projects/Exercises 6 Case Building Preliminary Steps in Case Building Developing a Convincing Vision Communication to Specific Decision Makers Conclusion Projects/Exercises Part Two Tools 7 Support: Evidence Forms of Evidence General Principles for the Use of Evidence Sphere Dependence of Evidence Conclusion Projects/Exercises 8 Support: Values Characteristics of Values Values Appear in Systems Values Define Ethics General Principles for the Use of Values Sphere Dependence of Values Conclusion Projects/Exercises 9 Support: Credibility Characteristics of Credibility Forms of Credibility General Principles for the Use of Credibility Sphere Dependence of Credibility Conclusion Projects/Exercises 10 Refutation The Process of Refutation Approaching Refutation Setting a Framework for Refutation Selecting a Posture for Refutation Communicating Refutation Conclusion Projects/Exercises 11 Refutation by Fallacy Claims Views of Fallacy Social Guides to Fallacy Claims Using Fallacy Claims in Refutation Conclusion Projects/Exercises Part Three Applications 12 Argumentation in Law Narratives in Legal Argumentation Arguments on the Law Commonplaces in Legal Argumentation Conclusion Projects/Exercises 13 Argumentation in Science What is Science? Scientific Values The Tradition of Argumentation in Science Scientific Use of Argument Types Scientific Use of Evidence Scientific Method as Argument Conclusion Project s/Exercises 14 Argumentation in Religion Major Questions in Religious Argumentation Evidence in Religious Argumentation Preferred Argument Forms Conclusion Projects/Exercises 15 Argumentation in Business Starting Points for Business Argumentation Forms of Support in Business Argumentation Conclusion Projects/Exercises 16 Argumentation in Government and Politics The Nature of Political Argumentation Argumentation in Government and Politics Argumentation in Legislative Action Argumentation in Political Campaigns The Special Role of Debates Refutation in the Political Campaign Conclusion Projects/Exercises References Name Index Subject Index

The Use of Collateral Data in Credibility Theory: A Hierarchical Model

Abstract: In classical credibility theory, a linearized Bayesian forecast of the fair premium for an individual risk contract is made using prior estimates of the collective fair premium and individual experience data. However, collateral data from other contracts in the same portfolio is not used, in spite of intuitive feelings that this data would contain additional evidence about the quality of the risk collective from which the portfolio was drawn. By using a hierarchical model, one makes the individual risk parameters exchangeable, in the sense of de Finetti, and a modified credibility formula is obtained which uses the collateral data in an intuitively satisfying manner. The homogeneous formula of Buehlmann and Straub is obtained as a limiting case when the hyperprior distribution becomes "diffuse".

The impact of source credibility, attitude valence, and task sensitization on trait errors in speech evaluation

Abstract: A general paradigm of a rating error theory is presented with a study testing relationships from the theory. The study aimed to discover the effects of source credibility, attitude valence, and task sensitization on trait errors in the evaluation of speeches. The main hypothesis of the study was an interaction effect on trait errors in the speech ratings. The results indicate a significant triple interaction, suggesting that when speech raters are sensitized to the task and are in favor of the view of the speaker, their trait errors on “ideas” will favor a low credibility speaker. The results are explained in terms of attraction and similarity.

Regularity Conditions For Exact Credibility

Abstract: Conditions under which the natural conjugate prior is not zero on its boundary are given, correcting an argument about conditions for exact credibility given in another paper.

Objective and Subjective Judgements in Environmental Impact Analysis

Abstract: Analyses of environmental impacts, and descriptions of methodologies for conducting them, have not always been explicitly cognizant of the subjective value-judgements that must be made in the process of collecting, refining, assessing, and presenting, objective scientific information. This paper has outlined the types of objective and subjective judgements that are made in each of the following major steps of the analysis: identifying major activities; selecting environmental components; selecting types of impacts; assessing the possibilities and/or probabilities of occurrences; determining the degree of the impacts; determining the time-frame of impacts; designating impacts as positive, neutral, or negative; and determining trade-offs among activities and impacts.The subjective judgements that must be made are based on values, feelings, beliefs, and prejudices, and are functions of the personal, institutional, professional, and societal, contexts of the analyst. If great care is not taken in making these judgements, and in making very explicit the value-framework used, the effectiveness and credibility of the analyst may be sharply reduced. There is also the danger that society and its decision-makers will be presented with an analysis having so many built-in biases that the legitimate role of the decision-makers in assessing the analysis and then making important value trade-offs is seriously compromised. This paper has attempted to make the nature of the process of analysis explicit with respect to the introduction and treatment of values, so that these problems can be understood and, it is hoped, properly managed by both scientists and decision-makers.

The Weighing of Testimony in Judicial Proceedings from Sources Having Reduced Credibility1

Abstract: Research on the relationship between the inferential impact of testimony and the credibility or reliability of sources or witnesses is summarized. Formal expressions are discussed which prescribe the nature of this relationship in certain well-defined cases. Also discussed are empirical studies which show that people typically do not degrade the impact of testimony in a manner consistent with the reliability of the sources of testimony. Attempts to improve inferences and decisions by decomposing the tasks performed are also summarized. Problems in applying such aiding techniques in judicial proceedings are discussed.

Actions speak louder than words—sometimes

Abstract: Three telephone surveys conducted during different phases of the Vietnam War (N=401, 199, and 299, respectively) were conducted to determine how changes in events and in sources’ actions relevant to those events affect the perceived credibility of various information sources. Data linking four sources (students, the Stanford University News Service, CBS News, and the White House) to three issues (air pollution, unemployment, the war) indicate that ascribed credibility: (a) increased with the purported objectivity of the source, (b) decreased as the issue became more controversial, and (c) varied overtime as a function of the actions of the various sources and changes in events related to the issues. Results are discussed in terms of how changes in the environment located by major news events are related to changes in the ascribed credibility of various information sources.

Credibility of sources of information about drugs.

Abstract: Several samples of youthful drug users and non-users were asked to rate the credibility of a variety of sources of information about drugs. For both users and non-users these sources can be scaled along dimensions of authority, drug experience, and friendship. The profile of credibility of these sources differed markedly for users and non-users. There are clear implications of these findings for drug education and drug counseling.

Stylistic variables as related to source credibility: A content analysis approach

Abstract: The hypothesis was tested that sources rated high in credibility construct messages with more listenability, human interest, vocabulary diversity, realism, and verifiability than sources rated low in credibility. Content analysis techniques applied to messages of high and low credibility sources revealed significant differences in the predicted direction along four of the five factors.

Protest and the problem of credibility: Uses of Knowledge and Risk-Taking in the Draft Resistance Movement of the 1960's

Abstract: In order to expand their base in society, protest movements must establish credibility with potential recruits and allies. This dimension of protest strategies is explored through a case study drawn from participant observation in the draft resistance movement in Boston in 1968-69. The strategies of two different Resistance groups are compared: draft counseling, or the offering of expert knowledge to outsiders; and non-cooperation with the draft, a strategy based on risk-taking. These strategies involved different methods of gaining access to and credibility with outsiders; overall, they embodied contrasting styles of persuasion. The service aspect of draft counseling involved minimizing differences between movement members and outsiders, while non-cooperation was tied to a more polarizing approach to persuasion. Comparison of these two strategies and their implicit strains highlights a dilemma many protest movements have experienced: to gain legitimacy involved the risk of compromising the movement's political goals, but staying true to the group's differences with the existing culture may limit the movement's effectiveness.

The Influence of Message and Source on Selection of Statements by Reporters

Abstract: ,The press seems daily accused of inaccuracy. With charges from misrepresentation of fact to bias, the press stands cited for error by public and government. Accuracy studies have dichotomized kinds of errors in reporters' copy into (1) objective errors, errors in verifiable facts such as names, dates, titles, places, etc., and (2) subjective errors, perceived error in emphasis and omission and called \"error in meaning\" by Charnley in the earliest accuracy study.' Four subsequent studies described subjective errors as errors of meaning, overemphasis, underemphasis and omission.2 All accuracy studies have assumed that subjective errors constitute a form of inaccuracy. Greenberg and Tannenbaum found that

Credibility of sources of information about drugs to heroin addicts.

Abstract: -A small sample of black heroin addicts (N = 23) was studied to determine their views of the credibility of a variery of sources of information about drugs. Addicts' own experience and that of ex-addicts and other users were the most trusted sources; and mental health professionals were significantly less credible than sources with personal drug experience. The findings support the use of paraprofessionals in drug education and drug counseling.

Bayesian Regression and Credibility Theory

Abstract: The development of a Bayesian theory of regression requires special distributional assumptions and rather complicated calculations. In this paper, general formulae for predicting the mean values of the regression coefficients and the mean outcomes of future experiments are developed using the methods of credibility theory, a linearized Bayesian analysis originally used in actuarial problems. No special distributional assumptions on prior or error distributions are needed, and heteroscedastic errors in both the dependent and independent variables are permitted. The first group of formulae hold for arbitrary design matrices and dimensionality of input, since, as common in Bayesian methods, there are none of the usual problems of identifiability. However, in the event that the design matrix has full rank, the credibility results are equivalent to a linear mixture of the prior mean prediction and the classical (generalized) least-squares regression predictor; thus, the credibility result provides a bridge between full Bayesian methods and classical estimators. One can also find easily the preposterior covariance matrix for the credibility estimators, and it is shown that prior information and the results from prior experiments can be cascaded in a particularly intuitive manner. Many special applications of the credibility formulae are possible because of the generality of the assumptions.

Recovering the structure of credibility judgments: An alternative to factor analysis

Abstract: This paper proposes and illustrates the application of a non‐metric multidimensional scaling approach to recovering the structure of judgments of communicator credibility: solutions are proposed to certain recurrent problems in the application of factor analysis to such research.

Credibility premium plans which make allowance for bonus hunger

Abstract: By “bonus-hunger” is meant the tendency of an experience rated policy holder to self-insure small damages in order to avoid an increase in future premium costs. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate, within the framework of a simple model, how fair experience rating plans can be constructed when the policy-holders hunger for bonus. In the first three sections some basic concepts of credibility theory are introduced, and specific assumptions are made concerning the risk process and the bonus-hunger strategy of the policy holders. In section 4 a credibility formula is derived which is optimal (in the sense of least squares) when the bonus-hunger strategy is independent of the premium system. In section 5 credibility formulas are derived in cases when the bonushunger strategy depends on the premium system, and a numerical example is given. The practical applicability of the results is discussed in section 6.

Admissibility of Polygraph Evidence in 1975: An Aid in Determining Credibility in a Perjury-Plagued System

Abstract: CONTENTS Address of Senator Robert P. Griffin 193 Review of Polygraph Charts of Non-Deceptive Subjects N. E. ~obbins & W. J. Penley 199 Admissibility of Polygraph Evidence in 1975: An Aid in Determining Credibility in a Perjury-Plagued System Barry Tarlow 207 Calibrating the Polygraph l A Programmed Text: The Galvanograph (Part II) Clark J. Tebbs ' 265 Bibliography on Screening of Police Applicants With the Polygraph Norman Ansley & Frank S. Horvath 282 Polygraph Review Bobby J. Daily Book Reviews Thomas G. Beatty Norman Ansley film Review Abstracts

Credibility and Impression Formation

Abstract: Fifty-one participants indicated attraction toward individuals described positively, neutrally, or negatively by one of three types of sources, friend, acquaintance, or compet itor. Deviations in rated liking from Anderson's (1971) multi plying model for communication effectiveness were in line with credibility ratings and predictions from attribution theory. A two-stage information integration model is proposed.

The Relationship of Listener Personality To Perceptions of Three Dimensions of Credibility.

Abstract: The purpose of this investigation was to determine the relationship of listener personality to perceptions of speaker credibility. The results of the analysis allowed for distinctions among the different dimensions of source credibility, and the description of a set of listener characteristics relevant to the prediction of credibility ratings.