Showing papers on "Credibility published in 1988"

Promises, Promises: Credible Policy Reform Via Signaling

Abstract: Empirical experience and theory both suggest that policy reforms can be aborted or reversed if they lack sufficient credibility, One reason for such credibility problems is the legitimate doubt regarding how serious the government really is about :he reform process. This paper considers a framework in which the private sector is unable to distinguish between a genuinely reformist government and its nemesis, a government which simply feigns interest in reform because it is a precondition for foreign assistance The general conclusion is that the rate at which reforms are introduced may serve to convey the government's future intentions, and hence act as a signal of its "type". More specifically, credible policy reform may require going overboard: the government will have to go much farther than it would have chosen to in the absence of the credibility problem.

Monetary Policy Strategies

Abstract: The paper considers the merits of rules and discretion for monetary policy when the structure of the macroeconomic model and the probability distributions of disturbances are not well defined. It is argued that when it is costly to delay policy reactions to seldom-experienced shocks until formal algorithmic learning has been accomplished, and when time consistency problems are significant, a mixed strategy that combines a simple verifiable rule with discretion is attractive. The paper also discusses mechanisms for mitigating credibility problems and emphasizes that arguments against various types of simple rules lost their force under a mixed strategy.

How Credible is the Credibility Crisis

Abstract: b Widspread concern about media credibility, fueled by a growing body of rescarch showing public reservations about the media, led to four major surveys of the public's attitudes in 1985. The plethora of findings from these surveys added enormously to understanding of this issue; yet, it also further fanned the flames of confusion. Media credibility has long been an interest of academic and commercial researchers,' while media industry concern about credibility as an issue is not new either.2 Credibility is an important issue to study because public inability to believe the news media severely hampers the nation's ability to inform the public, to monitor leadcrs and

The Unemployment Rate Consequences of Partisan Monetary Policies

Abstract: Economists and political scientists have identified several ways in which political motivations and institutional arrangements can affect macroeconomic policymaking. One way is described by the political business cycle model [42; 37], in which vote-seeking politicians manipulate the path of the economy to secure unsustainably "favorable" conditions at election times. Variants of this model have been widely tested, with limited success.' A second channel for political impacts comes through partisan policy changes brought about by electoral turnover. The pathbreaking work in this literature includes the contributions of Hibbs [30; 31; 32; 33] and Beck [11]. These works have focused on the empirical issue of how unemployment rates vary under Democratic and Republican presidents in the U.S., and have found strong support for the proposition that unemployment rates decline under Democratic administrations. A third phenomenon has been studied primarily by economists, and concerns the credibility problem faced by a central bank selecting money growth rates. Models of the credibility problem [8; 21] describe a setting in which the central bank and the public interact by respectively choosing actual and expected money growth rates. In a variant of the prisoners' dilemma, this interaction can result in excessive inflation.

The role of social categorization and perceived source credibility in minority influence

Abstract: This study was conducted in order to compare the influence of ingroup and outgroup minorities and to assess the role of perceived source credibility in minority influence. The subjects were exposed to the simultaneous majority/minority influence paradigm. Ingroup minorities were more influential than outgroup minorities. Subjects moved toward the minority position in private and toward the majority position in public when the minority was represented by members of the ingroup. On private responses subjects were not affected by outgroup minorities who argued for abortion, and they became more positive toward abortion when outgroup minorities opposed abortion. Final &, ingroup minorities were perceived as more credible than outgroup minorities and greater credibility of minority source was associated with greater attitude change toward the minority position. The superior influence of ingroup minorities held when controlling for source credibility. Overall, the results were highly supportive of social identity theory.

Credibility, Debt and Unemployment: Ireland's Failed Stabilization

Abstract: Can the credibility of a stabilization plan affect the output costs of disinflation? The new classical economics has asserted this possibility, but little evidence has been brought forward. This paper analyzes the stabilization program of Ireland in the l980s against the background of the new classical economics, The main questions are two: Did EMS membership yield a special credibility bonus? And is the stabilization program sustainable. The answer to both questions is negative. The idea of a credibility bonus Is an attractive potential policy implication of EMS membership: by joining the EMS, playing by the rules of fixed exchange rates and benefiting from the stabilizing influence of German inflation targets, a country's policy makers achieve a dramatic turn around in expectations, in inflation and in long-term interest rates. But the evidence on international disinflation in the 1980s shows that it was not limited to EMS members; all OECD countries experienced sharply reduced inflation and a large drop in long-term nominal interest rates, EMS membership did not contribute to reduce the sacrifice ratio of disinflation. In fact Germany, on whose anti-inflation credentials the credibility effects are supposedly based has one of the highest sacrifice ratios among DECD countries. Ireland did reduce inflation to the German level, but a serious public debt problem has emerged and the unemployment rate stands near 20 percent. This raises questions of the Sargent-Wallace kind about the sustainability of the program.

Assessing precision in the manuscript review process: A little better than a dice roll

Abstract: The credibility of the publication system in science is determined in large part by the precision of the manuscript review process. Studies on the precision of the review process in scientific journals have reported conflicting results. This paper reviews those studies and re-examines the data reported. The findings indicate that highly selective decision-making with imprecise reviewers results in outcomes that are only slightly better than chance.

Testing Massive Retaliation: Credibility and Crisis Management in the Taiwan Strait

Abstract: I F o r eight months in 1954 and 1955, much of the world wondered whether the U.-S. would go to war with the People’s Republic of China over Jinmen (Quemoy) and Mazu (Matsu) in the Taiwan Strait. The crisis was an early test of the EisenhowerDulles doctrine of “massive retaliation.” Was the American threat to protect its commitments by using anything in its arsenal, including nuclear weapons, a credible one? How should such commitments and threats be signalled, to whom, and when? Could they be effective to promote U.S. interests? As Secretary of State John Foster Dulles recognized during the crisis, the U.S. would shortly reach the point when it would have to ”face up to the question whether its military program was or was not in fact designed to permit the use of atomic weapons.” He feared that the longer the U.S. went without using these weapons, the less would be their deterrent value. Dulles and Eisenhower recognized that the U.S. was thus approaching the brink of nuclear war over strategically trivial islands. However, they appeared to believe that U.S. credibility was on the line, and that if their approach didn’t succeed, their entire defense policy might be undermined. The documentary record of the decision-making process in Beijing, Moscow, and Taibei remains closed to researchers, thereby precluding a complete and balanced history of the crisis, but on the American side much of the highest-level material has recently been declassified. As a consequence it is now possible to trace the evolution of American policy in considerable detail. The documents reveal the Eisenhower administration struggling to preserve important strategic assets in the Far East in the face of competing diplomatic, political, and bureaucratic forces. To President Dwight D. Eisenhower, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Arthur Radford, and nearly everyone else of influence in Washington, a secure Taiwan in friendly hands represented the sine qua non of American policy in the Strait. Beyond this, however, opinions rapidly diverged, and considerable disagreement arose among decision-makers over the issue of the offshore islands. Much of it involved the fact that any course of action would antag-

Credibility estimators with geometric weights

Abstract: In the present paper we study credibility estimators with geometric weights in the framework of experience rating in motor insurance. We discuss how to find optimal weights. The estimators are compared with the traditional credibility estimators and shown to be more robust against a certain type of violations against the model assumptions. We also discuss advantages and disadvantages relative to ordinary bonus—malus systems.

Persuasion and Influence in American Life

Abstract: The current edition of this excellent, accessible survey of various approaches to persuasion incorporates the Its engaging discussions and other journals twitter youtube informed responsible ethical. The ubiquitous for class however it is observed and the persuadee has been credible. Teaching persuasion twitter youtube and financial wherewithall manipulate public relations illuminate. For becoming responsible ethical manner the eyeballs to college level. Becoming informed preparation the authors dissect theory and messages received. The expenditure of symbols credibility audience targeting.

Relating leadership and credibility

Abstract: Using responses (N = 998) from their subordinates, the relationship between leadership and credibility was examined. All three dimensions of credibility (trustworthiness, expertise, and dynamism) w...

The effects of impeachment evidence and limiting instructions on individual and group decision making

Abstract: Two studies were conducted to investigate the effects of impeachment evidence in civil cases. According to the Federal Rules of Evidence, impeachment evidence can be used to judge defendant credibility, but not to infer bad character or harmful propensity. Jury-eligible subjects watched a realistic videotaped trial in which prior convictions for perjury and character evidence of honesty or dishonesty were manipulated. In Study 1, subjects provided individual judgments, and in Study 2, subjects engaged in group deliberations. Impeachment evidence did not strongly affect verdicts, and character evidence of honesty decreased liability only when limiting instructions were given. In both studies, however, the evidence produced legally permissible and impermissible inferences. Prior convictions reduced perceived credibility and increased inferences of negligent propensity. Evidence of dishonesty produced lower credibility ratings and negative character impressions. Credibility, character, and propensity assessments were all important in the verdict-reaching process, suggesting that juror's decisions do not conform to the requirements of the Rules of Evidence.

The credibility of children's allegations of sexual abuse

Abstract: Sexual abuse, the fastest growing type of abuse complaint, often raises issues concerning the credibility of individual allegations. This paper discusses historical, developmental, and societal factors affecting children's credibility and recommended assessment methods that maximize a child's capacity to relate his or her experience. Clinical factors leading to false allegations are discussed. Language: en

A Credibility Model with Random Fluctuations in Delay Probabilities for the Prediction of IBNR Claims(

Abstract: We consider a general credibility model for the prediction of IBNR-claims which allows for random fluctuations in the underlying delay distribution. Such fluctuations always bring about decreasing credibility. It is shown that even negative credibility is achieved for more substantial fluctuations in the delay distribution. Special attention is paid to the mixed Poisson case for claim numbers including the discussion of parameter estimation.

Notes on Credibility and Stabilization

Abstract: Do existing theories of stabilization help understand the credibility issues involved in such programs? The experience with stabilization in a hyperinflation setting in Israel and Latin America makes it worthwhile to ask how much existing theories help understand the success and failure of these experiments. Theories typically focus on interaction between policy makers and the public, with imperfect information about the true nature of the government and resulting games. But this model often does not help greatly in explaining stabilization. These notes raise some of the questions left unanswered by the traditional modeling of credibility. The first sections deals with stabilization as a one shot problem. This approach is used to ask what "credibility might mean in a world where it is inconceivable that a program will succeed with probability 1. A model is spelled out where the equilibrium program has an ex ante probability of success. The model draws attention to the factors which raise or lower the probability of success of a stabilization program. The next section deals with the problem of waiting which is familiar from the option literature and recent international applications. It is shown here that in the immediate aftermath of stabilization there is a great difficulty in persuading the public to repatriate assets and engage in irreversible investment except at a large premium. But generating that premium is politically difficult.

Structure and practice in the cultural identities of scientists: negotiating nuclear wastes in new mexico

Abstract: The cultural status ofscientists in contemporary American society is both elite and insecure. Although science commands authority as the cultural source of knowledge about "nature," individual scientists must struggle to achieve and maintain "credibility." This ethnographic study examines the strategies ofparticipants in a public dispute over nuclear waste disposal as they negotiated the credibility ofcompeting scientists. I advance the theoretical concept of cultural identity to show how the credibility of scientists in the public domain is at once a culturally-structured and a contextually-variable phenomenon. It may prove fruitful to view cultural identity more generally as a mediating concept between cultural structures and actors' practices. [cultural analysis, American culture, anthropolbgy of science, ideology, nuclear waste]

Promises, Promises: Credible Policy Reform via Signaling

Abstract: Empirical experience and theory both suggest that policy reforms can be aborted or reversed if they lack sufficient credibility, One reason for such credibility problems is the legitimate doubt regarding how serious the government really is about :he reform process. This paper considers a framework in which the private sector is unable to distinguish between a genuinely reformist government and its nemesis, a government which simply feigns interest in reform because it is a precondition for foreign assistance The general conclusion is that the rate at which reforms are introduced may serve to convey the government's future intentions, and hence act as a signal of its "type". More specifically, credible policy reform may require going overboard: the government will have to go much farther than it would have chosen to in the absence of the credibility problem.

Collecting and Enforcing Criminal Fines: A Review of Court Processes, Practices, and Problems

Abstract: As criminal fines and other monetary penalties become more important sentences in the United States, court administrators’ success in monitoring, encouraging, and compelling their payment becomes a significant factor in the ability of courts to ensure the efficacy of financial sanctions, as well as the credibility of the court. Research in both American and Western European courts indicates that many court administrators are doing a better job collecting fines than the conventional wisdom suggests. However, performance can be improved substantially in most courts if administrators systematically apply collection and enforcement techniques and strategies that already exist and have been proven effective.

Reaganomics and reputation revisited

Abstract: This paper considers a reformulation of Backus and Driffill's model of credibility following a change in regime. Following Tabellini, we alter their model to better fit macroeconomic policymaking as it is formulated in the U.S. where monetary and fiscal policies are made by independent policymakers. By assuming that policymakers of divergent views have recently entered office and so have no track record, the game's equilibrium corresponds to the U.S. experience during the first years of the Reagan administration.

Assessing experiential learning

Abstract: Assessing adults' experiential learning for college credit is gaining academic credibility as more systematic ways of setting standards and measuring learning are demonstrated.