Showing papers on "Credibility published in 1995"

The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates

Abstract: This paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets. Contrary to popular wisdom, industrialized-country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private speculative attack. But if their commitment to use those resources lacks credibility with markets, the costs to the broader economy of defending an exchange-rate peg can be very high. The dynamic interplay between credibility and commitment is illustrated by the 1992 Swedish and British crises and the 1994-95 Mexican collapse. We also discuss the small number of successful fixers.

The Construction of Lay Expertise: AIDS Activism and the Forging of Credibility in the Reform of Clinical Trials

Abstract: In an unusual instance of lay participation in biomedical research, U.S. AIDS treatment activists have constituted themselves as credible participants in the process of knowledge construction, thereby bringing about changes in the epistemic practices of biomedical research. This article examines the mechanisms or tactics by which these lay activists have constructed their credibility in the eyes of AIDS researchers and government officials. It considers the inwlications of such interventions for the conduct of medical research; examines some of the ironies, tensions, and limitations in the process; and argues for the importance of studying social movements that engage with expert knowledge.

The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates

Abstract: This paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets. Contrary to popular wisdom, industrialized-country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private speculative attack. But if their commitment to use those resources lacks credibility with markets, the costs to the broader economy of defending an exchange-rate peg can be very high. The dynamic interplay between credibility and commitment is illustrated by the 1992 Swedish and British crises and the 1994-95 Mexican collapse. We also discuss the small number of successful fixers.

Improving the Corporate Disclosure Process

Abstract: Is it time to reform the financial reporting regulations that were established in the early 1900s? Will new regulations improve the corporate disclosure process? The authors conducted a national survey of corporate managers, financial analysts, and portfolio managers to examine their options on disclosure regulation and how companies communicate with the capital markets. Their analysis indicates that, while all three groups think market functioning is imperfect, they do not see a need for increased financial reporting regulation. Rather, the authors' analysis suggests that companies can improve the processes of disclosure and communication by developing a strategy for corporate information disclosure, upgrading the role of the investor relations staff, and voluntarily reporting nonfinancial information. Such improvements would increase management credibility, analysts' understanding of the firm, investors' patience, and, potentially, share value.

Comment: Concerns in the Analysis of Focus Group Data

Abstract: The most frequent concern in qualitative research is an inadequate description of the analysis process, and the consequent limitation on credibility and usefulness of the results. Of all the aspects of using the focus group technique—advantages and limitations, logistics, implementation, and interpreting and reporting of results—the process of analysis is the least agreed on and the least well developed. There is little guidance for researchers, journal editors and reviewers, graduate students and their advisors. A frequent question is "how to do" analysis of focus group data, especially analysis worthy of federal-level funding or acceptable at the level of an academic dissertation. Definitive, mutually agreed on technique does not exist. Decisions in analysis depend on many factors, and this article will discuss considerations in planning and implementing analyses of focus group data.

Political credibility and economic development

Abstract: Introduction - PART 1: THE EFFECTS OF POLITICAL CREDIBILITY ON GROWTH: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE - Catching Up or Falling Behind? - Political Credibility: A Crucial Factor in the Growth Story - Measuring Political Credibility - Political Credibility and Economic Growth: the Empirical Evidence - PART 2: THE SOURCES OF POLITICAL CREDIBILITY - Explaining Political Credibility: Conceptual Foundations - Sources of Political Credibility in 10 Case Study Countries - Policy Conclusions: Traditional Approaches to Reform and Implications from the Credibility Perspective - References - Appendix I: The Neoclassical Solow-Model of Economic Growth - Appendix II: Private Sector Questionnaire - Appendix III: Indicator of Political Credibility - Appendix IV: Measurement and Indicators of Openness - Index

Double-edged incentives: Institutions and policy coordination

Abstract: This paper illustrates some of the most important insights of the literature on international fiscal and monetary policy coordination. It notes that the analysis of international policy interactions is enriched by taking the incentives in the domestic policy process into account. These incentives can either be tied to credibility issues or to political institutions. The paper also focuses on the role of institutions that can enforce and support international cooperation. We discuss alternative task assignments between member countries and the central policy-making level, and alternative processes for collective decision making.

The mirage of fixed exchange rates

Abstract: This paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets. Contrary to popular wisdom, industrialized-country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private speculative attack. But if their commitment to use those resources lacks credibility with markets, the costs to the broader economy of defending an exchange-rate peg can be very high. The dynamic interplay between credibility and commitment is illustrated by the 1992 Swedish and British crises.

Credibility, Information Preferences, and Information Interests

Abstract: The Seveso Directive of the European Union demands that information be provided to the public by companies and authorities about facts, risks, and behaviors related to hazardous facilities, in particular chemical facilities. On behalf of the Commission of the European Communities, a survey was run in five European countries on the credibility of various information sources. This article describes the results of the German study. 430 persons were interviewed with a questionnaire of 50 items, in particular about their perceptions and evaluations of technical risks, the credibility of sources of information about chemical risks, their preferences for receiving risk information from these sources, and their interests in receiving information. Major findings are great differences in credibility, differentiated information preferences, and strong information interests. Surprisingly, credibility played only a minor role with regard to the respondents’information preferences and interests.

Newspaper coverage of maverick science: Creating controversy through balancing

Abstract: How do journalists portray the ideas of maverick scientists to the general public? Are mavericks portrayed as credible scientific sources? Do the stories written by journalists function to merely translate maverick theories for nonscientific audiences, or do they more often transform those maverick theories into the realm of scientific controversies? This study hypothesized answers to these questions by analysing how journalists wrote about three maverick theories: (1) a 1990 earthquake prediction, (2) an alternative theory about the cause of AIDS, and (3) cold fusion. A content analysis of 393 news articles in 26 US newspapers and a mailed survey of the journalists who wrote those stories suggest that scientific theories which are believed to be credible by a minority of scientists may be lent credibility in mass media stories, even though the journalists themselves thought that the maverick scientists lacked credibility. Implications for the communication of risk through the mass media are discussed.

The incredible (and sometimes incredulous) child witness: Child eyewitnesses' sensitivity to source credibility cues.

Abstract: Witnesses who receive misleading postevent information usually perform more poorly on memory tests than do witnesses who receive only unbiased information. This effect is especially pronounced for young children. For adults, the credibility of the source of the misleading information moderates this effect; misinformation presented by a credible source impairs performance to a greater degree than does misinformation presented by a noncredible source. In the present experiment, preschool children listened to a story accompanied by several illustrations. Later, they watched a videotape ofa child, a credible adult, or a discredited adult answering questions about the story. For some children, the person in the videotape provided misleading information. The children's memory reports were impaired only when misinformation was presented by the credible adult, indicating that even young children are sensitive to source credibility cues.

Gaining and Losing Erm Credibility: The Case of the United Kingdom

Abstract: The model of this paper highlights two aspects of credibility: signaling the type of government, which is assumed not to be known; and, for any type, the likelihood that if circumstances are sufficiently unfavorable a devaluation will be impossible to avoid, since not to do so would go against the government's interests. These two factors have opposite implications for the link between unemployment and interest differentials: high unemployment signals a tough government but also makes it less likely that even a tough government will maintain an existing parity. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

To be or not to be...credible that is

Abstract: Previous studies of corporate reputation have either confirmed its existence as an influence agent or described in general terms its effects on other attributes (quality, price, advertising, etc) The competitive credibility model of reputation building is formulated and tested through simulation Reports and discusses results

Good Intentions Make Bad News: Why Americans Hate Campaign Journalism

Abstract: Chapter 1 Introduction Chapter 2 Power Play Chapter 3 The Reagan Reaction Chapter 4 The Search for Substance Chapter 5 Whose Agenda is it, Anyway? Chapter 6 Freeze-Frame Journalism Chapter 7 The Media's Character Test Chapter 8 Credibility in the Balance Chapter 9 The Talk Show Campaign Chapter 10 Putting People First Chapter 11 Postscript: There They Go Again

The Effects of Source Credibility and Performance Rating Discrepancy on Reactions to Multiple Raters1

Abstract: Using multiple feedback sources, the present study investigated the effects of source credibility and performance rating discrepancy on recipients' reactions. Individuals performed an ambiguous group task, rated their own performance on the task, and were later provided bogus feedback ostensibly from their peers and an expert rater. Individuals reacted toward the feedback and the source of the feedback as a function of the rating discrepancy and credibility of the feedback source. Generally, more credible sources and their feedback were evaluated more favorably. However, as predicted, this effect was overcome by performance rating discrepancy in the predicted conditions. The results show the importance of studying the interactive effects of message and source characteristics on individuals' reactions.

An Inoculation Theory Explanation for the Effects of Corporate Issue/Advocacy Advertising Campaigns

Abstract: Despite the popularity of issue / advocacy advertising campaigns, there has been limited empirical study of their overall impact. This investigation posits that issue / advocacy advertising should be viewed as a vehicle for inoculating against attitude slippage and for enhancing the sponsor's credibility among people who already favor a corporation's position, rather than as a tool to change attitudes. An experimental test of attitudinal and image effects of issue / advocacy advertising confirmed this theoretical view. The results indicated that issue / advocacy advertising inoculates against attitude change, while simultaneously protecting sponsors against slippage in ratings of source credibility, after exposure to a persuasive attack on behalf of an opposing position. These results are discussed in terms of their theoretical and policy implications.

Credibility and outcome of cognitive-behavioural and psychodynamic-interpersonal psychotherapy.

Abstract: Depressed psychotherapy clients (N = 117) rated the treatment principle credibility of cognitive-behavioural (CB) and psychodynamic-interpersonal (PI) before they were randomly assigned to receive either eight or 16 sessions of one of these treatments, and they rated their expectations of the treatment to which they were assigned immediately before (initial credibility) and immediately after their first session (emergent credibility). Results indicated that before they were assigned to a treatment, clients rated CB treatment principle credibility higher than PI treatment principle credibility. After assignment, however, clients rated initial credibility similar regardless of whether they were assigned to CB or PI therapy, and their ratings of emergent credibility increased to a similar degree from immediately before to immediately after the first session in both treatments. Clients' endorsement of CB and PI treatment principle credibility predicted improvement in PI therapy but not improvement in CB therapy. Initial and emergent credibility of clients' assigned treatment predicted improvement for clients who received eight sessions of therapy, but not for clients who received 16 sessions of therapy. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime

Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of credibility from an econometric perspective. It develops a rational expectations model of inflation in which the dynamics are driven by the level of government spending and by the effect of past inflation rates on the value of real taxes. Government expenditure is modeled as an exogenous autoregressive process subject to discrete changes in regime. The regimes are defined by whether the level of spending is or is not consistent with the rate of inflation targeted by the government as part of a stabilization program. In making their money demand decision, the agents need to construct probability inferences regarding the state of the expenditure process. Credibility is quantified by the agents' inferred probability that the joint observation of inflation, the nominal interest rate, and government spending is generated by the reformed expenditure regime. In an application to Israel, results indicate that the failed stabilization program of November 1984 was less than fully c...

Trailing Research: A Model for Useful Program Evaluation

Abstract: Trailing research is a model for evaluation aiming at enhancing use. The model integrates formative and summative evaluation in a planned learning process coupled with producing knowledge for the scientific community. Formative and summative activities are built into an action research model to enhance the immediate use of evaluation findings. The underlying idea of trailing research is to combine pragmatic evaluation activity with reflection processes. In this paper we describe how trailing research was applied to evaluate a Norwegian public program supporting business development. A major challenge in evaluations is to produce credible results. Trailing research had no trouble producing credible results for stakeholders involved in the program. A small number of external stakeholders not engaged in the evaluation activity were more unwilling to accept its results or grant it credibility. External stakeholders who shared the learning process, however, had few problems in granting it credibility.

The Swedish Experience of an Inflation Target

Abstract: The paper gives a brief account of the Swedish experience of an inflation target in a floating exchange rate regime; identifies, documents and discusses the current problems in Swedish monetary policy and their origins; considers what can be done to remedy the problems; and draws some general conclusions. The two main current problems are the lack of credibility of the target and the significant risk that the target will be missed. The reasons for the lack of credibility include the fiscal situation, the institutional setup of monetary policy, the political division about monetary policy, and the insufficient transparency of and commitment to the current inflation- targeting policy.

How to Establish an Alternative School

Abstract: Alternative Education What Is It? Dealing with Political Opposition and Credibility Gaps Ten Key Characteristics of Effective Alternative Programs Ten Alternative Models How to Set Up an Alternative Program Exploring Curriculum Options Administering and Organizing Alternative Schools Empowering Teachers Involving Students in Their Own Education Evaluating Alternative Programs Conclusion

Central Bank Independence and Disinflationary Credibility: A Missing Link?

Abstract: Granting central banks independence from short-term political control is widely assumed to decrease inflation by increasing the credibility of commitments to price stability. This paper analyzes public- and private-sector behavior in a sample of seventeen OECD countries for evidence of variations in disinflationary credibility with monetary institutions. The paper does not find evidence that the costs of disinflation are lower in countries with independent central banks, even when differences in contracting behavior are taken into account. It also does not find evidence that central bank independence inhibits government collection of seignorage revenues or manipulation of economic policy for electoral gain. These results raise questions about some explanations of the negative correlation between central bank independence and inflation, as well as the empirical relevance of government time-inconsistency problems as a source of inflation differences.

Chapter 45 Trade and industrial policy reform

Abstract: Publisher Summary This chapter reviews the consequences of policy reforms It covers both theory and evidence, as it is only the interplay of the two that allows comprehending and interpreting the world around Research on policy reform has not been short on either theory or evidence, even though, there is still a need for systematic empirical studies on the consequences of the recent round of reforms The chapter focuses on trade and industrial policies and discusses macroeconomic stabilization issues as they impinge on microeconomic reforms The chapter reviews the literature on the strategy of reform and covers recent contributions including those in the theories of piecemeal reform, timing and sequencing of reform, credibility, and political economy It also reviews the available evidence on the consequences of the reforms of the 1980s, paying particular attention to the supply response and to static and dynamic efficiency

Word‐of‐mouth Communication in Singapore:With Focus on Effects of Message‐sidedness, Source and User‐type

Abstract: Word‐of‐mouth is a powerful communication tool which is often beyond the control of the marketer. This study used a 3 x 2 x 2 factorial experiment in a laboratory simulation to examine the main and interaction effects of three independent variables — message, source and user‐type — on credibility and behavior intention. The experiment involved 1,440 respondents from two different demographic sample groupings — secondary school students and undergraduates. ANOVA results for the experiments showed that, generally, source and user‐type were found to be significant factors affecting the credibility of word‐of‐mouth. In terms of source, father was perceived to be more credible than close friend as a word‐of‐mouth source. Likewise, past users were found to be more credible than non‐past users. Message was, however, found to affect significantly the behavioral intention variable. Negative message was found to generate the strongest negative behavioral intention than positive message and two‐sided messages. Two‐sided message was also found to have a stronger effect than positive message in behavioral intention. In addition, t‐tests results also revealed significant differences in perceptions between the two samples.