Showing papers on "Credibility published in 2005"

Democracy, credibility and clientelism

Abstract: The authors demonstrate that sharply different policy choices across democracies can be explained as a consequence of differences in the ability of political competitors to make credible pre-electoral commitments to voters. Politicians can overcome their credibility deficit in two ways. First, they can build reputations. This requires that they fulfill preconditions that in practice are costly: informing voters of their promises; tracking those promises; ensuring that voters turn out on election day. Alternatively, they can rely on intermediaries -- patrons - who are already able to make credible commitments to their clients. Endogenizing credibility in this way, the authors find that targeted transfers and corruption are higher and public good provision lower than in democracies in which political competitors can make credible pre-electoral promises. The authors also argue that in the absence of political credibility, political reliance on patrons enhances welfare in the short-run, in contrast to the traditional view that clientelism in politics is a source of significant policy distortion. However, in the long run reliance on patrons may undermine the emergence of credible political parties. The model helps to explain several puzzles. For example, public investment and corruption are higher in young democracies than old; and democratizing reforms succeeded remarkably in Victorian England, in contrast to the more difficult experiences of many democratizing countries, such as the Dominican Republic.

A Course in Credibility Theory and its Applications

Abstract: The Bayes Premium.- Credibility Estimators.- The Buhlmann-Straub Model.- Treatment of Large Claims in Credibility.- Hierarchical Credibility.- Multidimensional Credibility.- Credibility in the Regression Case.- Evolutionary Credibility Models and Recursive Calculation.- Multidimensional Evolutionary Models and Recursive Calculation.

Radical Islam Rising: Muslim Extremism in the West

Abstract: Chapter 1 High-Risk Islamic Activism Chapter 2 Cognitive Openings and Religious Seeking Chapter 3 Credibility and Sacred Authority Chapter 4 Culturing and Commitment

Effective use of knowledge management systems: a process model of content ratings and credibility indicators

Abstract: Knowledge management systems (KMSs) facilitate the efficient and effective sharing of a firm's intellectual resources. However, sifting through the myriad of content available through KMSs can be challenging, and knowledge workers may be overwhelmed when trying to find the content most relevant for completing a new task. To address this problem, KMS designers often include content rating schemes (i.e., users of the KMS submit ratings to indicate the quality of specific content used) and credibility indicators (indicators describing the validity of the content and/or the ratings) to improve users' search and evaluation of KMS content. This study examines how content ratings and credibility indicators affect KMS users' search and evaluation processes and decision performance (how well and how quickly users selected alternatives offered by the KMS). Four interrelated laboratory experiments provide evidence that ratings have a strong influence on KMS search and evaluation processes, which in turn affects decision performance. Finally, this study demonstrates that certain credibility indicators can moderate the relationship between rating validity and KMS content search and evaluation processes.

The Fleeting Effects of Disclosure Forthcomingness on Management's Reporting Credibility

Abstract: This study provides a theoretical framework and experimental evidence on how managers' disclosure decisions affect their credibility with investors. I find that in the short‐term, more forthcoming disclosure has a positive effect on management's reporting credibility, especially when management is forthcoming about negative news. However, these short‐term credibility effects do not persist over time. In the long‐term, managers who report positive earnings news are rated as having higher reporting credibility than managers who report negative earnings news, regardless of their previous disclosure decisions.

Calculating credibility : how leaders assess military threats

Abstract: Calculating Credibility examines-and ultimately rejects-a fundamental belief held by laypeople and the makers of American foreign policy: the notion that backing down during a crisis reduces a country's future credibility. Fear of diminished credibility motivated America's costly participation in the Korean and Vietnam wars, and, since the end of the Cold War, this concern has continued to guide American policy decisions. Daryl G. Press uses historical evidence, including declassified documents, to answer two crucial questions: When a country backs down in a crisis, does its credibility suffer? How do leaders assess their adversaries' credibility? Press illuminates the decision-making processes behind events such as the crises in Europe that preceded World War II, the superpower showdowns over Berlin in the 1950s and 60s, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. When leaders face the prospect of high-stakes military conflicts, Press shows, they do not assess their adversaries' credibility by peering into their opponents' past and evaluating their history of keeping or breaking commitments. Power and interests in the current crisis-not past actions-determine the credibility of a threat. Press demonstrates that threats are credible only if backed by sufficient power and only if pursuing important interests. Press believes that Washington's obsession with the dangers of backing down has made U.S. foreign policy unnecessarily rigid. In every competitive environment-sports, gambling, warfare-competitors use feints and bluffs to tremendous advantage. Understanding the real sources of credibility, Press asserts, would permit a more flexible, and more effective, foreign policy.

The use of qualitative research criteria for portfolio assessment as an alternative to reliability evaluation: a case study.

Abstract: Aim Because it deals with qualitative information, portfolio assessment inevitably involves some degree of subjectivity. The use of stricter assessment criteria or more structured and prescribed content would improve interrater reliability, but would obliterate the essence of portfolio assessment in terms of flexibility, personal orientation and authenticity. We resolved this dilemma by using qualitative research criteria as opposed to reliability in the evaluation of portfolio assessment. Methodology/research design Five qualitative research strategies were used to achieve credibility and dependability of assessment: triangulation, prolonged engagement, member checking, audit trail and dependability audit. Mentors read portfolios at least twice during the year, providing feedback and guidance (prolonged engagement). Their recommendation for the end-of-year grade was discussed with the student (member checking) and submitted to a member of the portfolio committee. Information from different sources was combined (triangulation). Portfolios causing persistent disagreement were submitted to the full portfolio assessment committee. Quality assurance procedures with external auditors were used (dependability audit) and the assessment process was thoroughly documented (audit trail). Results A total of 233 portfolios were assessed. Students and mentors disagreed on 7 (3%) portfolios and 9 portfolios were submitted to the full committee. The final decision on 29 (12%) portfolios differed from the mentor's recommendation. Conclusion We think we have devised an assessment procedure that safeguards the characteristics of portfolio assessment, with credibility and dependability of assessment built into the judgement procedure. Further support for credibility and dependability might be sought by means of a study involving different assessment committees.

Is computer science science

Abstract: Computer science meets every criterion for being a science, but it has a self-inflicted credibility problem.

Knowledge transfer in virtual systems development teams: an exploratory study of four key enablers

Abstract: Knowledge transfer among geographically separated members is recognized as a critical ingredient for collaborative accomplishment of work in virtual teams However, due to the "localness" of knowledge, such transfer of knowledge is believed to be inherently problematic; thus, it is important to develop a solid understanding of the factors that enable knowledge transfer in such contexts Drawing on existing literature on knowledge management and virtual teamwork, we identify four Cs (communication, capability, credibility, and culture) associated with individuals who transfer significant amounts of knowledge to remote members Next, we test the four Cs in the context of US-Norwegian virtual teams engaged in systems development The volume of communication, the credibility of the communicator, and the nature of cultural values held (ie, collectivism) by the communicator were found to significantly predict the extent of knowledge transferred; although, contrary to expectations, capability was not found to have a significant influence A number of implications for virtual team participants and professional communicators are articulated Avenues for future research are also suggested

Military coercion in interstate crises

Abstract: In an international crisis, states make demands backed by threats to use force. Although these threats can be explicit in diplomatic communications, they will not generally carry much weight unless substantiated by some show of force— –military measures designed to convey the commitment to resort to arms if one’s demands are not satisfactorily met. To have an impact, this commitment must be credible; it must be in one’s interest to carry out the threat if the opponent refuses to comply. In an environment where states possess private information about their valuations, capabilities, or costs, credibility can be established by actions that a state unwilling to fight would not want, or would not dare, to take. Military moves, such as arms buildups, troop mobilizations, and deployments to the potential zone of operations, can alter incentives in a crisis by changing one’s expected payoff from the use of force. These are tacit bargaining moves that can restructure the strategic context thereby creating and possibly signaling one’s commitments while undermining those of the opponent. How can states use the military instrument to establish commitments, and how does the nature of the instrument affect their ability to communicate them credibly to their adversaries? There are two distinct mechanisms for credible signaling. In economic models, information can be transmitted reliably by sinking costs— –actors burn money to reveal that they value the disputed issue even more. In contrast, theories of interstate crisis bargaining usually rely on choices that increase the difference between backing down and fighting— –actors tie their hands by running higher risks of war to reveal their resolve. The first mechanism involves costs that actors pay regardless of outcome, and the second involves costs that actors pay only if they fail to carry out some threat or promise.

Greener and cleaner? The signaling accuracy of U.S. voluntary environmental programs

Abstract: Voluntary environmental programs (VEPs) have become a popular alternative to traditional regulation. However, little is known about whether these programs are sending accurate signals about the environmental practices of their participants. As a means for understanding signaling accuracy, this research investigates VEP design characteristics. The findings suggest that there are four distinct types of programs with varying degrees of rigor. Because information for differentiating among program types is limited, less rigorous VEPs can signal that their administrative, environmental performance and conformance requirements are comparable to programs with more robust designs. Further, the lack of monitoring and sanctions in less rigorous programs create opportunities for participants to free-ride and receive benefits without satisfying VEP requirements. Unless some means of distinguishing among program types is implemented, these issues can threaten the long term viability of VEPs as a tool for environmental protection, and the credibility of market mechanisms more broadly.

Corporate self‐presentation on the WWW

Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify starting points for improving corporate self‐presentation on the world wide web (WWW) by enhancing site usability, message credibility, and information utility.Design/methodology/approach – Content analysis, quantitative linguistic analysis and discourse analysis were used to examine the “About Us” sections of 20 well‐known corporate web sites.Findings – The findings suggest that companies recognise the challenges provided by WWW‐mediated communication but fail to respond adequately. The companies could enhance their web sites by adopting a more user‐centred approach, constructing more convincing arguments and raising the level of interactivity in order to present their audiences with more relevant information.Research limitations/implications – The findings of this study are limited by the fast‐paced nature of the internet. The content and structure of the pages may have changed substantially since the research was conducted.Practical implications – Comp...

Philosophical Foundations for Global Journalism Ethics

Abstract: This article proposes 3 principles and 3 imperatives as the philosophical foundations of a global journalism ethics. The central claim is that the globalization of news media requires a radical rethinking of the principles and standards of journalism ethics, through the adoption of a cosmopolitan attitude. The article explains how and why ethicists should construct a global journalism ethics, using a contractualist approach. It then formulates 3 "claims" or principles: the claims of credibility, justifiable consequence, and humanity. The claim of humanity is developed further by the formulation of 3 imperatives: to act as a global agent, to serve world citizens, and to enhance nonparochial understandings. The article concludes by considering some implications of a cosmopolitan attitude for the practice of journalism.

The Importance of Perceived Endorser Credibility in South Korean Advertising

Abstract: A study was undertaken to examine the effectiveness of celebrity endorsements in Korean advertising. Beyond traditional measures of attitude toward the ad, the brand and intent to purchase, influences of perceived credibility were also examined to gain a better understanding of the process. Celebrities were found to be highly effective in creating more favorable responses on the dependent measures; however, perceived credibility of the endorser played a significant mediating role in determining the effectiveness. A path analysis of the relationship between relevant variables in the study resulted in support for the predicted model. Implications for advertisers and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Accuracy Matters: A Cross-Market Assessment of Newspaper Error and Credibility

Abstract: A survey of 4,800 news sources cited in fourteen newspapers provides a cross-market assessment of newspaper accuracy and the effect of errors on newspaper credibility. Sources found errors in 61% o...

Bridging the gap between disclosure and use of intellectual capital information

Abstract: – The objective of this paper is to examine the information regarding intellectual capital disclosed to financial analysts and to study if this data is finally considered in their decision‐making process., – The database consists of 257 reports of presentations held by Spanish companies and 217 analyst reports issued during 2000 and 2001. The paper shows that information related to intellectual capital is widely reported to financial analysts and that they use it in their decision making process., – The findings show that some of the items most frequently disclosed in the meetings and considered in valuation tasks are related to coherence and credibility of strategy, alliances, or leadership. Nevertheless, the comparison shows that the disclosure on intangibles is higher than the level of this information included in the analyst reports. This paper contributes to three streams of literature. The first is the literature on intangible assets, to which we contribute by providing evidence of its disclosure through direct contacts. The second is the literature on analyst valuation, to which we contribute by increasing understanding of the role of intellectual capital in the decision‐making process of financial analysts. Finally, by comparing the results, we test the differences in the focus on intangibles between the main parties involved in the information flow: the discloser and the user of the information., – The analysis of non‐financial information currently reported in private channels and used by financial analysis may be of interest to policymakers or regulators in the setting of mandatory disclosure requirements regarding intangibles

Credibility Using Copulas

Abstract: Credibility is a form of insurance pricing that is widely used, particularly in North America. The theory of credibility has been called a “cornerstone” in the field of actuarial science. Students of the North American actuarial bodies also study loss distributions, the process of statistical inference of relating a set of data to a theoretical (loss) distribution. In this work, we develop a direct link between credibility and loss distributions through the notion of a copula, a tool for understanding relationships among multivariate outcomes. This paper develops credibility using a longitudinal data framework. In a longitudinal data framework, one might encounter data from a cross section of risk classes (towns) with a history of insurance claims available for each risk class. For the marginal claims distributions, we use generalized linear models, an extension of linear regression that also encompasses Weibull and Gamma regressions. Copulas are used to model the dependencies over time; specific...

An experimental study of credibility in e‐negotiations

Abstract: E-negotiators' credibility was compared to that of face-to-face (FTF) negotiators in an integrative bargaining task. Dyads were randomly assigned to negotiate either on the computer or FTF. E-negotiators perceived their opponents to be less credible and reported less selfcredibility than FTF negotiators. Although lying did not vary significantly from FTF to e-negotiations, self-credibility and lying were negatively correlated. E-negotiators were also more likely to advocate using dishonesty in the future. Consistent with psychological distance theory, skepticism regarding the credibility of e-negotiators appears warranted. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of Negative Political Advertising on Voting Intention: An Exploration of the Roles of Involvement and Source Credibility in the Development of Voter Cynicism

Abstract: Candidates' use of negative political advertising continues to generate objections among individuals and concern among scholars and journalists. An experiment examining the influence of negative political advertising on individuals' voting decisions indicated that the effects and effectiveness of such advertising depend, at least in part, on the situational involvement of the participants and the credibility of the candidate. As would be expected, participants' intent to vote for a candidate who uses negative political advertising is higher for a high‐credibility candidate than for a low‐credibility candidate. This is true regardless of their level of situational political involvement. However, highly involved participants do experience greater cynicism when a high‐credibility candidate uses negative political advertising rather than when a low‐credibility candidate uses such advertising. There is no change in the cynicism of participants who are low in involvement, regardless of the credibility level of ...

The European Central Bank: Credibility, Transparency, and Centralization

Abstract: An examination of the debates on European Central Bank monetary policy, focusing on issues of transparency, credibility, and accountability and the effect of the ECB's decentralized structure.

Expertise, Credibility, and Influence: How Teachers Can Influence Policy, Advance Research, and Improve Performance

Abstract: While many efforts to foster teacher leadership focus on the power, authority, and control that can come with teachers’ formal positions in organizational hierarchies, case studies of 4 teachers document how expertise, credibility, and influence can come together in teachers’ activities regardless of the formal positions they hold. These teachers’ expertise emerged from investigations of issues that were of concern to them in their own classrooms and schools. Through these investigations, they developed representations that both helped them to articulate their own ideas and facilitated the sharing of their work in a variety of different contexts. The connections these teachers made provided them with new perspectives, helped them to build their credibility, and enabled them to gain access to individuals who served as translators, advocates, and amplifiers for their work. Despite conditions that provided little support forFand often significant discouragement fromFsharing their work and ideas, their experiences suggest some of the ways that schools, school systems, and reform networks can build on the ideas, energy, and influence of teachers both in the classroom and out.

The Incredible Volcker Disinflation

Abstract: The reduction in inflation that occurred in the early 1980s, when the Federal Reserve was headed by Paul Volcker, is arguably the most widely discussed and visible macroeconomic event of the last 50 years of U.S. history. Inflation had been dramatically rising, but under Volcker, the Fed first contained and then reversed this process. Using a simple modern macroeconomic model, we argue that the real effects of the Volcker disinflation were mainly due to its imperfect credibility. In our view, the observed upward volatility and subsequent stubborn elevation of long-term interest rates during the disinflation are key indicators of its imperfect credibility. Studying transcripts of the Federal Open Market Committee recently released to the public, we find — to our surprise — that Volcker and other FOMC members likewise regarded the long-term interest rates as indicative of inflation expectations and of the credibility of their disinflationary policy. Drawing from the transcripts and other contemporary sources, we consider the interplay of monetary targets, operating procedures, and credibility during the Volcker disinflation.

Measuring Online Trust of Websites: Credibility, Perceived Ease of Use, and Risk

Abstract: As the use of the web for ecommerce and information access continues to expand, user trust of websites has come under inspection. Empirical study of online trust is constrained by the shortage of high-quality measures of general online trust. The development of such measures is a priority for MIS researchers. This paper presents a new instrument for use in studying trust of an individual in a given website. The instrument was tested with two different websites in an experiment conducted in a controlled setting. The items in the instrument were analyzed using a confirmatory factor analysis with a split-sample approach. This process resulted in an instrument of high reliability whose components are unidimensional and whose constructs show high convergent and discriminant validity.